Core Viewpoint - The recent debates surrounding AI narratives, tightening liquidity, and geopolitical disturbances have contributed to increased market volatility. The current market adjustment appears to have established a preliminary sense of space, with strong support expected around the market's central position in late September. Future improvements in overseas liquidity expectations, reduced domestic funding pressures, and further digestion of market sentiment may lead to a healthier market environment [1]. Group 1 - The market valuation is approaching a "reasonable" central level, suggesting that if there is an overshoot, it may be appropriate to increase positions [1]. - The focus for investment should be on mid-term themes, emphasizing safety margins, and paying attention to low-level domestic consumption, domestic computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1]. - Continuing to hold large financial stocks is recommended to mitigate volatility [1].

| 蛇灰 | T+5胜率 | T+5平均: | T+20胖率 | T+20平均 | T+60胜率 | T+60平均 T+18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (跌破20日均线次数) | | 唱 | | 涨幅 | | 涨幅 | | | 第一轮(96年1月-97年 | 55.60% | 0.33% | 77.80% | 14.42% | 100.00% | 35.56% | 100. | | 5月) (12次) | | | | | | | | | 第二轮(99年5月-01年 | 58.80% | 0.05% | 58.80% | 1.51% | 64.70% | 1.07% | 82.4 | | 6月) (24次) | | | | | | | | | 第三轮(05年6月-07年 | 64.30% | 0.53% | 64.30% | 2.93% | 71.40% | 20.67% | 85.7 | | 10月) (21次) | | | | | | | | | 第四轮(08年10月-09 | 66.70% | 2.45% | 100.0 ...

上周，A股市场集体重挫，沪指大跌3.90%，失守3900点关口，收报3834.89点；深证成指大跌5.13%， 收报12538.07点；创业板指大跌6.15%，收报2920.08点。上周，A股市场整体表现疲软，主要指数深度 回调。其中，创业板指一周跌幅达6.15%，并11月21日失守3000点整数关口，单日跌幅为4.02%，报收 2920.08点。科创50和深证成指一周跌幅均超5%，上证指数也下跌了3.90%，于11月21日跌穿3850点， 收报3834.89点。 市场上演连续普跌行情，上周二、周三超4100只个股下跌，上周四3800只个股下跌，上周五下跌个股数 量进一步扩大至逾5000只，个股抛售力度持续增加。从近期11月14日高点计算，沪指调整幅度已近200 点，市场损失惨重，前期反弹的炽热氛围被一盆冷水浇灭，投资者信心遭遇重击。 来源：滚动播报 （来源：市场星报） 太平洋证券分析师张冬认为，A股技术面上中期的调整已经开始，且从盘面看美股、欧股后续下跌空间 将打开，这将不利于A股的风险偏好上行。目前看，中期调整仍处在初跌阶段，海外风险资产共振下 跌，投资者需继续保持耐心。同时，张冬冬强调，即使股市进入中期 ...

每周思考总第655期 技术面上，尚未触发底部买入信号。 伴随11月后市场风险偏好下降，原本的周期与科技的轮动 特征转变为了普跌，目前机构资金也尚未出现增量入场迹象，维持市场调整观点不变。 主板择时观点： 上周标题明确提示的再减仓至低仓位的信号精准规避本周市场大跌，A股资金面虽与 美国不直接关联但市场情绪趋同，短期谨慎市场情绪有待消化，建议维持 低仓位 耐心等待下一个企 稳信号。 | 标的 | 仓位 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 低仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 低仓位 | | 风格判断 | 主板占优 | 观点简述： 上周市场大幅下跌，沪深300指数周涨幅-3.77%，上证综指周涨幅-3.90%，中证500指数周涨 幅-5.78%。上周观点中明确 标题 提示"A股减仓 " ，本周国内市场在基本面技术面消息面共振下如期 出现显著调整。 基本面上，短期消息面中期仍是基本面压制。 国内方面，消息面上虽有荷兰对安世行政令暂停 的部分利多，但单周美国AI科技企业的连续领跌依旧继续强化对A股风险偏好的压制，而国内10月经 济各项指标的再度走弱是市场调整的中期原因未变，本月长短期LPR利率均继续维持不下调也低 ...

看完大洋彼岸传来的消息，而这边也有一些利好消息。在周五收盘之后，市场上发行了一些ETF，这可 以看作是一个稳定市场的信号。另一个信号是多只红利ETF刷新了记录，截至11月21日，红利ETF的规 模增长了49.31%，达到1661亿元，这是一个很好的走势，因为大量ETF的发行本身就是一个积极的信 号。 与此同时，周六的富时中国A50期货大涨0.7%，恒生指数期货大涨1.22%。如果后续没有其他信息变 化，周一的港股很可能会高开，A股也可能会小幅高开，至少避免了连续惯性跳空低开的情况。这对很 多人来说，就像是周末吃了一颗定心丸。 我们来看看有没有稳定市场的利好消息。首先，大洋彼岸传来了利好消息，美联储的高级官员、纽约联 储主席威廉姆斯暗示近期仍存在降息空间，波士顿联储主席柯林斯也预计未来会进一步降息。这些表态 使得12月份降息的概率从47%飙升到接近七成。通常来看，美联储的主席、副主席和纽约联储主席这三 位是关键人物，这三巨头的讲话通常都是经过仔细斟酌的，他们力求在清晰传递政策意图的同时，避免 市场的过度反应，这其中的平衡非常微妙。政策意图的首要传达者当然是美联储主席鲍威尔先生，其次 是美联储副主席，而第三巨头发 ...

11月21日，以银行为首的高股息股受到市场追捧。计算机本周获得逾210亿元主力资金净流入。 | 1991 | 不复权 · 显示停牌 | 到价提醒 | 筹码 | | 中国银行 | | | +0.05 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 设置均线。 | | | 601988 | | | +0.80% | | | | 2021/9/17-2025/11/21(214根) ★ | | | 已收市 CNY | | ● 理 量 | 目选+ | | | | | | | 港(3988):4.660(-1.89%) | | | H/A:-32.56% | | | | | | 6.39 | 变比 | -7.36% 委差 | | -1.15万 | | | | | 630 | | 英L | 6:33 | 15585 | | | | | | | 5.87 | 卖口 | 6.32 | 12754 | | | | | | | | 美 | 6.31 | 13662 | | | | | | | 5.26 | | 6.30 | 34015 | | | | ...

Market Sentiment and Trends - Current market adjustments are seen as a natural response to previously extreme sentiment, with no significant disruption to long-term trends [3][4] - Improvement in market breadth is noted, particularly in healthcare and financial sectors, indicating a positive shift [4][6] Sector Performance - High-flying stocks in the Russell 3000, particularly in quantum and uranium sectors, are approaching oversold conditions, which may signal a potential rebound [2] - Healthcare and energy sectors are showing better performance globally compared to the US, suggesting a synchronization with international trends [6][7] Energy Sector Insights - The energy sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with refiners and certain marketing and equipment names showing relative strength, while overall sentiment remains lukewarm [11][12] - Stability in crude oil prices is crucial for the energy sector's performance; a significant drop could pose risks, but current conditions appear manageable [13]

Core Viewpoint - The financial market signals are chaotic, with Warren Buffett holding a record cash reserve of $381.7 billion while the Federal Reserve is rapidly adjusting reserve levels, indicating potential trouble ahead [1][3]. Group 1: Buffett's Strategy - Berkshire Hathaway has not repurchased any stocks for five consecutive quarters and has net sold $6.1 billion in stocks in the third quarter, totaling a 12-quarter streak of stock sales, amounting to $184 billion in total reductions over three years, generating $10.4 billion in taxable gains [3]. - Buffett's significant cash accumulation suggests either a lack of attractive investment opportunities or a strategy to wait for market corrections [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's bank reserves decreased by $59 billion to $2.93 trillion in the week of October 22, dropping further to $2.8 trillion by October 31 [5]. - On November 1, the Federal Reserve conducted a $51.8 billion overnight reverse repurchase operation, signaling a warning to the market [5]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Concerns - The U.S. housing market is currently inflated, supported by previous loose monetary policies, and any tightening or economic slowdown could trigger a chain reaction [7]. - Historical data indicates that economic downturns in 1972, 1990, and 2008 were linked to real estate issues, with the next potential downturn projected for 2026 [5][7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Gold - The gold market has experienced significant volatility, dropping from nearly $4,400 per ounce to $3,950, reflecting broader market uncertainties [7]. - Disagreements among central banks, such as the Philippines planning to sell excess gold holdings while South Korea considers increasing its gold purchases, indicate a shift in market dynamics [7]. Group 5: Economic Implications for China - If the U.S. faces economic issues, China will face dual pressures: a decline in exports due to the U.S. being a key market and potential depreciation of Chinese investments in U.S. assets [9]. - Companies in China should prepare for potential economic challenges in 2026 by optimizing asset structures and reducing exposure to high-risk assets [9][11]. Group 6: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Individuals are advised to adopt Buffett's approach by holding more cash and avoiding high-risk investments while closely monitoring liquidity changes [11]. - The cyclical nature of the economy suggests that the 18-year pattern observed in previous downturns should not be ignored, with the next potential crisis anticipated in 2026 [11][12].

责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 ...

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a broad decline, with 1,627 stocks rising and 3,646 stocks falling, indicating a poor profit-making environment and a clear tendency for capital to seek safety [6][11]. - The total trading volume in both markets has decreased by 9.08% to 9.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a strong sense of caution among investors and concerns about resistance above the 4,000-point level [7]. Capital Flow - There is a net outflow of 39.647 billion yuan from institutional funds, while retail investors are showing a net inflow [8]. - Institutions are exhibiting a cautious defensive strategy, reallocating funds away from previously high-performing sectors like batteries and semiconductors, and moving towards defensive sectors such as banking and insurance [9]. Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment is characterized by anxiety and a passive response, with many adopting a "wait-and-see" approach as market hotspots rapidly rotate, making it difficult for some to keep pace [9]. - As of November 4, 30.38% of investors are increasing their positions, while 16.88% are reducing their holdings, with a significant portion choosing to remain inactive [14].