股息估值性价比
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南京银行推荐报告:新动能,新头部
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-02-04 08:24
新动能,新头部 ——南京银行推荐报告 投资要点 南京银行交易面支撑力主要来自:①股息估值性价比高。截至 2026年 2月 3日, 南京银行 2025 年股息率为 5.0%,较城商行平均高 56bp。我们预计南京银行 2026 年利润增速有望维持大个位数乃至接近双位数的利润增长,那么 2026 年动态股 息率约为 5.5%;截至 2026 年 2 月 3 日,南京银行 PB(对应 25Q3 末每股净资 产)为 0.72x,低于其他优质区域城商行,如宁波银行、杭州银行、成都银行 PB 分别为 0.93x、0.86x、0.79x。②筹码结构优的权重股。南京银行主动公募持仓低 于板块平均,25Q4 末南京银行主动公募基金持仓占自由流通比例为 1.0%,较城 商行平均低 0.2pc,显著低于其他优质城商行;南京银行在沪深 300、主要红利指 数中,有望受益于未来指数基金扩容。③主要股东较持股上限仍有空间。2025年 以来主要股东大举增持,累计净买入股票对应市值为 74 亿,位居上市公司第 一;主要股东实力雄厚,仍有增持空间,前十大股东中如法巴、江苏交控、南京 紫投较增持上限仍有 1.9pc、0.8pc、1.5pc,新进 ...
南京银行(601009):推荐报告:新动能,新头部
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-02-04 07:28
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nanjing Bank, with a target price of 16.26 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 54% from the current price [3]. Core Insights - Nanjing Bank is expected to experience a strong profit growth rate, with projected net profit growth of 8.08% in 2025, 9.54% in 2026, and 8.86% in 2027, supported by a favorable dividend yield and a strong shareholder base [3][11]. - The bank's capital replenishment is expected to enhance operational management, leading to an improvement in Return on Equity (ROE) [3][25]. - The bank's dividend yield is projected to be 5.0% for 2025, which is 56 basis points higher than the average for city commercial banks, with an expected dynamic dividend yield of approximately 5.5% in 2026 [2][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Capital Injection and Operational Improvement - Nanjing Bank's performance has shown a U-shaped recovery since 2024, with revenue and net profit growth rates improving significantly compared to 2023 [16]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio was at a low of 0.83% as of Q4 2025, reflecting effective cost control [16][24]. - The management team, led by experienced executives, is focused on enhancing operational performance and value creation [41]. 2. High Dividend Valuation and Strong Trading Support - The bank's stock is undervalued compared to other quality city commercial banks, with a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 0.72x, lower than peers like Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank [2][45]. - Nanjing Bank has a low public fund holding ratio of 1.0%, which is below the average for city commercial banks, indicating a favorable trading structure [2][47]. - Major shareholders have been actively increasing their stakes, providing additional support for the stock price [2][47]. 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The bank's net profit is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.08% from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding Book Value per Share (BPS) estimates of 14.64 CNY, 16.26 CNY, and 17.69 CNY [3][11]. - The report anticipates that the bank's valuation will return to the top tier of city commercial banks, driven by both fundamental and trading factors [3][9].