股指修复性反弹
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宏观金融数据日报-20260224
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-02-24 03:35
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - After the Spring Festival, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. In the long - term, with low interest rates, "asset shortage", and policy - guided long - term funds entering the market, the domestic market has sufficient funds, and the medium - and long - term upward trend of stock indices is expected to remain unchanged. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices for the long - term [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Forecast of Interest - rate Products - In the previous week, the central bank conducted 1652.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 405.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1246.9 billion yuan. It also carried out 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit tenders, 500 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse repurchase matured, and 1000 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse repurchase was conducted [4] - In the week of February 24 - 28 after the Spring Festival, 2252.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature in the central bank's open market, including 1452.4 billion yuan, 400 billion yuan, and 400 billion yuan maturing on February 24th, 25th, and 26th respectively. On February 25th, 300 billion yuan of MLF and 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit will also mature [5] Stock Index Market - During the Spring Festival, global major stock indices generally performed strongly. From February 14th to 22nd, 2026, the US Nasdaq Index rose 1.5%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.1%, the Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.2%, and the South Korean Composite Index rose 5.5%. Chinese assets were generally stable, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index fell 0.6%, and the Hong Kong stock market showed a "first - down - then - up" trend [6] - Before the festival, the A - share market adjusted significantly due to rising risk - aversion sentiment. After the festival, it is likely to have a restorative rebound [6][7] Price and Volume Data of Stock Index Futures | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Value | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (bp or %) | | | (bp or %) | | DRO01 | 1.31 | 4.76 (bp) | DR007 | 1.32 | - 10.48 (bp) | | GC001 | 1.47 | 19.50 (bp) | GC007 | 1.48 | 8.50 (bp) | | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.10 (bp) | LPR 5 - year | 3.50 | 0.00 (bp) | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.31 | 0.05 (bp) | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.54 | 0.53 (bp) | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.80 | 0.81 (bp) | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 4.08 | 0.00 (bp) | | CSI 300 | 4660 | - 1.25% | IF Current Month | 4643 | - 1.6% | | SSE 50 | 3034 | - 1.47% | IH Current Month | 3025 | - 1.9% | | CSI 500 | 8300 | - 1.47% | IC Current Month | 8283 | - 2.0% | | CSI 1000 | 8205 | - 1.32% | IM Current Month | 8200 | - 1.7% | | IF Trading Volume | 120319 | 75.0 | IF Open Interest | 291728 | 3.8 | | IH Trading Volume | 61205 | 84.8 | IH Open Interest | 110461 | 9.2 | | IC Trading Volume | 141906 | 24.5 | IC Open Interest | 298512 | 0.2 | | IM Trading Volume | 186228 | 19.8 | IM Open Interest | 379866 | - 1.1% [4][6] Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation | Project | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | - 45.44% | 10.47% | 4.94% | 4.76% | | IH Premium/Discount | - 37.47% | 6.90% | 1.70% | 2.81% | | IC Premium/Discount | - 24.31% | 4.36% | 5.09% | 5.34% | | IM Premium/Discount | - 7.16% | 2.82% | 7.03% | 7.58% [8]