股指期货跨期价差
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阅兵在即,股指偏强运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 07:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current margin balance is less than 30 billion yuan from the historical high. Among public - fund categories with a high proportion of stock investment, only partial - stock hybrid funds still have some room for position replenishment. The end of the rapid capital inflow window coincides with the military parade time point. It is expected that the subsequent upward rhythm of the market may slow down, and attention should be paid to the risk of a staged correction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August reached a three - year high of 50.7, up from 49.8 in July, and expanded for the first time since mid - 2022. In China, President Xi Jinping chaired the 25th meeting of the Council of Heads of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Member states signed and issued multiple important documents [1]. - **Spot Market**: A - share major indices closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.46% to 3875.53 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.29%. Most sector indices increased, with communication, non - ferrous metals, pharmaceutical biology, and electronics leading the gains, while non - bank finance, banking, and household appliances led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.75 trillion yuan. U.S. stocks were closed for the Labor Day holiday [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures deepened rapidly, and the basis of IC and IM was at a historically low level. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined simultaneously [1]. 3.2 Strategy - The current margin balance is close to the historical high, and only partial - stock hybrid funds have room for position replenishment. The end of the rapid capital inflow window points to the military parade time, so the market's upward rhythm may slow down, and there is a risk of a staged correction [2]. 3.3 Charts - **Macroeconomic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the U.S. dollar index and A - share trends, U.S. Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and U.S. Treasury yields and A - share style trends [4][5]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Present the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on September 1, 2025, and August 31, 2025, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc., along with their daily changes. Also include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin balance [4][5][12]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Provide data on the trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts, their changes, the basis of different contracts, and the inter - period spreads of different contracts. There are also charts showing the open interest, open - interest ratio, and net open interest of foreign investors for different contracts [4][5][14].