股指期货基差分析 金融期货 | 专题报告 报告要点 本研究系统分析了我国三大股指期货（上证 、沪深 、中证 ）基差结构及其对市场中性策略的影响。研究发现，股指期货基 差可解构为三个核心维度：资金时间价值、股息现金流和市场情绪预 期。通过引入"矫正基差"概念（时间价值与市场情绪预期的合并）， 研究剥离了确定性分红影响，更精准地反映了真实对冲成本。 数据分析显示，A 股分红呈现显著季节性特征（ - 月集中， - 月高峰），且自 年以来出现三大新趋势：年末分红现象显现、 传统分红日期延后、分红对衍生品定价影响深化。上证 与沪深 指数股息率呈"V 型"走势（五年均值 2%-3%），中证 股息率中 枢下移（均值 1.63%）。 对冲成本分析表明，当前（ 年 月）IC 与 IF 合约成本普遍 为正值，IH 合约则呈现负值。具体来看，IC2512 合约年化对冲成本 9.38%，IF2603 合约 2.49%，而 IH2510 合约达-7.11%。远季合约 成本长期稳定在零值附近，近月合约则存在显著波动（如 年观 测到超过 150%的异常峰值）。 在当前市场结构下，因其成本优势明显（年化 9.38%），优先配 置 IC 合约 ...

09 月 29 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.9%，收于 3862.53 点，成交额 9682.12 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 2.05%，收于 13479.43 点，成交额 11932.49 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 1.36%，成交额 4195.35 亿元，其中开盘价 7415.13，收盘价 7497.83，当日最高价 7517.12，最低价 7376.91； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 1.51%，成交额 4338.64 亿元，其中开盘价 7251.52，收盘价 7350.56，当日最高价 7377.22，最低价 7216.74； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 1.54%，成交额 6933.95 亿元，其中开盘价 4555.03，收盘价 4620.05，当日最高价 4647.57，最低价 4541.43； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 1.09%，成交额 1899.69 亿元，其中开盘价 2940.04，收盘价 2973.04，当日最高价 3000.48，最低价 2922.01。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-09-30 一、指数走势 上证 50 较 ...

Group 1: Index Trends - On September 24th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83% to close at 3853.64 points, with a trading volume of 1015.708 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.8% to close at 13356.14 points, with a trading volume of 1311.076 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 1.7%, with a trading volume of 494.398 billion yuan. The opening price was 7375.91, the closing price was 7534.22, the highest price was 7534.22, and the lowest price was 7342.47 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 1.99%, with a trading volume of 477.262 billion yuan. The opening price was 7140.31, the closing price was 7323.71, the highest price was 7327.02, and the lowest price was 7133.43 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.68%, with a trading volume of 157.195 billion yuan. The opening price was 2908.07, the closing price was 2939.51, the highest price was 2942.59, and the lowest price was 2908.07 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.68%, with a trading volume of 157.195 billion yuan. The opening price was 2908.07, the closing price was 2939.51, the highest price was 2942.59, and the lowest price was 2908.07 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 126.15 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, computer, and power equipment significantly driving the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 143.0 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology significantly driving the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 46.29 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and computer significantly driving the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 20.0 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics and non - banking finance significantly driving the index up, while the banking sector pulled the index down [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 77.26, IM01 had - 162.97, IM02 had - 245.25, and IM03 had - 458.47 [12]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 64.91, IC01 had - 135.65, IC02 had - 194.16, and IC03 had - 370.82 [12]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 9.42, IF01 had - 24.74, IF02 had - 33.98, and IF03 had - 62.97 [12]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of 1.28, IH01 had - 0.36, IH02 had 0.56, and IH03 had 0.71 [12]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267, IM00 - 02 was - 259.4522, etc. [23]. - Data on IC roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222, IC00 - 02 was - 225.568, etc. [24]. - Data on IF roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678, IF00 - 02 was - 41.14122, etc. [25]. - Data on IH roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc. [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a daily data tracking of stock index futures on September 23, 2025, including index trends, the impact of sector fluctuations on indices, basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and points differences in contract roll - over and their annualized costs [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Trends - On September 23, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3821.83 points with a trading volume of 1071.698 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.29% to 13119.82 points with a trading volume of 1422.684 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index fell 1.09% with a trading volume of 503.96 billion yuan, opening at 7500.62, closing at 7408.07, with a high of 7504.23 and a low of 7261.67 [1] - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.61% with a trading volume of 495.069 billion yuan, opening at 7240.85, closing at 7180.71, with a high of 7250.82 and a low of 7045.56 [1] - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.09% with a trading volume of 168.987 billion yuan, opening at 2917.99, closing at 2919.51, with a high of 2938.12 and a low of 2891.78 [1] - The CSI 300 Index fell 0.06% with a trading volume of 680.514 billion yuan, opening at 4536.76, closing at 4519.78, with a high of 4560.73 and a low of 4459.73 [1] 3.2 Impact of Sector Fluctuations on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 81.41 points compared to the previous close, with sectors such as Computer and Medicine & Biology significantly pulling the index down [2] - The CSI 500 Index dropped 44.42 points compared to the previous close. The Power Equipment sector significantly pulled the index up, while sectors like Medicine & Biology, Non - Banking Finance, and Computer pulled it down [2] - The CSI 300 Index dropped 2.83 points compared to the previous close. Sectors such as Bank, Communication, and Electronics pulled the index up, while Computer, Medicine & Biology, and Non - Banking Finance pulled it down [2] - The SSE 50 Index dropped 2.67 points compared to the previous close. Sectors such as Bank, Non - Ferrous Metals, and Public Utilities pulled the index up, while Non - Banking Finance, Electronics, and Medicine & Biology pulled it down [2] 3.3 Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Stock Index Futures - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 107.49, IM01 of - 195.71, IM02 of - 281.02, and IM03 of - 488.76 [12] - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 112.22, IC01 of - 186.93, IC02 of - 254.9, and IC03 of - 426.14 [12] - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 23.49, IF01 of - 36.88, IF02 of - 51.72, and IF03 of - 78.0 [12] - IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.65, IH01 of - 1.94, IH02 of - 0.77, and IH03 of 0.52 [12] 3.4 Points Differences in Contract Roll - over and Their Annualized Costs - For IF, from 09:45 to 15:00, the points differences in contract roll - over and their annualized costs fluctuated. For example, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678 [24][26] - For IH, from 09:45 to 15:00, the points differences in contract roll - over and their annualized costs also fluctuated. For example, at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707 [29] - For IM, from 09:45 to 15:00, the points differences in contract roll - over and their annualized costs changed. For example, at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267 [31] - For IC, from 09:45 to 15:00, the points differences in contract roll - over and their annualized costs varied. For example, at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222 [32]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-09-23 一、指数走势 09 月 22 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.22%，收于 3828.58 点，成交额 9418.0 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.67%，收于 13157.97 点，成交额 11796.83 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.69%，成交额 4405.15 亿元，其中开盘价 7457.89，收盘价 7489.48，当日最高价 7489.48，最低价 7418.46； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.76%，成交额 4219.16 亿元，其中开盘价 7182.89，收盘价 7225.13，当日最高价 7225.86，最低价 7143.08； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.46%，成交额 5631.49 亿元，其中开盘价 4512.03，收盘价 4522.61，当日最高价 4523.87，最低价 4487.13； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.43%，成交额 1564.01 亿元，其中开盘价 2911.02，收盘价 2922.18，当日最高价 2929.52，最低价 2901.12。 图表 1：中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300、上证 50 日内走势（% ...

期 2025 年 9 月 19 日 股指对冲周报 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李宏磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018445 | lihonglei@gtht.com | （正文） 1. 股指期货基差情况 表 1：股指期货基差 | | | IF | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约代码 | 上周基差 | 本周基差 | 基差变动 | 指增年化收益 | | IF2509 | 1.20 | 8.08 | 6.88 | | | IF2510 | -5.00 | -14.92 | -9.92 | 5.5% | | IF2512 | -25.00 | -37.52 | -12.52 | 4.8% | | IF2603 | -44.00 | -61.52 | -17.52 | 4.2% | | | | IH | | | | 合约代码 | 上周基差 | 本周基差 | 基差变动 | 指增年化收益 | | IH2509 | 0.06 | 8.66 | 8.60 | | | I ...

1. Index Trends - On September 17th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to close at 3876.34 points, with a trading volume of 1006.679 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16% to close at 13215.46 points, with a trading volume of 1370.059 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.95% with a trading volume of 493.296 billion yuan, opening at 7478.41, closing at 7554.81, with a daily high of 7564.82 and a low of 7461.41 [1] - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.96% with a trading volume of 445.549 billion yuan, opening at 7184.26, closing at 7260.04, with a daily high of 7265.39 and a low of 7159.67 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.17% with a trading volume of 155.034 billion yuan, opening at 2942.88, closing at 2952.78, with a daily high of 2960.31 and a low of 2935.78 [1] 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 71.18 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and machinery significantly pulling the index up [2] - The CSI 500 rose 69.05 points from the previous close, with power equipment, automotive, and non - banking finance sectors significantly pulling the index up [2] - The SSE 50 rose 4.96 points from the previous close, with electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and coal sectors pulling the index up, while national defense and military industry, food and beverage, and non - banking finance sectors pulling it down [2] 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 13.2, IM01 of - 80.36, IM02 of - 235.47, and IM03 of - 440.87 [12] - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 14.27, IC01 of - 72.76, IC02 of - 190.19, and IC03 of - 353.51 [12] - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 1.4, IF01 of - 11.54, IF02 of - 33.52, and IF03 of - 59.3 [12] - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 1.48, IH01 of 0.35, IH02 of 0.86, and IH03 of 3.82 [12] 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267, etc.) are provided [20] - For IC contracts, roll - over point differences and annualized costs are presented, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222 [21][22] - For IF contracts, roll - over point differences and annualized costs are shown, like at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678 [22] - For IH contracts, roll - over point differences and annualized costs are given, for example, at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707 [26]

1. Index Trends - On September 16, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% to close at 3861.87 points, with a trading volume of 989.786 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.45% to close at 13063.97 points, with a trading volume of 1351.615 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92% with a trading volume of 474.734 billion yuan, opening at 7426.41, closing at 7483.63, with a daily high of 7487.07 and a low of 7364.73 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.75% with a trading volume of 435.21 billion yuan, opening at 7152.19, closing at 7190.99, with a daily high of 7195.42 and a low of 7080.43 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index fell 0.21% with a trading volume of 613.728 billion yuan, opening at 4539.92, closing at 4523.34, with a daily high of 4552.42 and a low of 4494.79 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.5% with a trading volume of 155.43 billion yuan, opening at 2969.23, closing at 2947.82, with a daily high of 2974.95 and a low of 2942.3 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 68.06 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, machinery, and computers having a significant positive impact [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 53.63 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, automobiles, and computers having a significant positive impact [2]. - The SSE 300 fell 9.72 points from the previous close, with sectors such as computers, electronics, and machinery having a positive impact, while non - ferrous metals, non - banking finance, and banks had a negative impact [2]. - The SSE 50 fell 14.8 points from the previous close, with the electronics sector having a positive impact, while food and beverage, non - banking finance, and banks had a negative impact [2]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, the average daily basis for IM00 was - 26.35, IM01 was - 95.74, IM02 was - 248.6, and IM03 was - 455.45 [12]. - For IC contracts, the average daily basis for IC00 was - 18.99, IC01 was - 77.14, IC02 was - 186.78, and IC03 was - 345.03 [12]. - For IF contracts, the average daily basis for IF00 was - 3.61, IF01 was - 12.63, IF02 was - 33.84, and IF03 was - 58.86 [12]. - For IH contracts, the average daily basis for IH00 was 0.17, IH01 was - 0.2, IH02 was 0.6, and IH03 was 3.13 [12]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The document provides data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different 15 - minute intervals [23][25][27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the performance of major stock indices on September 15, including their intraday trends, the impact of sector movements on index changes, and the basis and cost data of stock index futures [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Index Trends - On September 15, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3860.5 points with a decline of 0.26% and a trading volume of 986.172 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13005.77 points with an increase of 0.63% and a trading volume of 1291.213 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7415.57 points with a decline of 0.1% and a trading volume of 475.105 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7137.36 points with a decline of 0.15% and a trading volume of 441.829 billion yuan [1]. - The SSE 50 Index closed at 2962.62 points with a decline of 0.2% and a trading volume of 145.698 billion yuan; the SSE 300 Index closed at 4533.06 points with an increase of 0.24% and a trading volume of 613.315 billion yuan [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Index Changes - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by 7.31 points. Sectors such as pharmaceutical biology, power equipment, and automobiles had a significant positive impact, while national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and computer sectors had a negative impact [3]. - The CSI 500 Index decreased by 10.39 points. Media, automobile, and power equipment sectors pulled the index up, while non - ferrous metals, pharmaceutical biology, and electronics sectors pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 300 Index increased by 11.06 points. Power equipment, automobile, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors contributed positively, while non - bank finance, banking, and communication sectors had a negative impact [3]. - The SSE 50 Index decreased by 5.92 points. Electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and automobile sectors had a positive impact, while communication, non - bank finance, and banking sectors pulled the index down [3]. Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Stock Index Futures - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 35.46, IM01 of - 104.78, IM02 of - 257.48, and IM03 of - 465.25 [12]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 20.83, IC01 of - 82.03, IC02 of - 189.44, and IC03 of - 349.6 [12]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 4.11, IF01 of - 13.84, IF02 of - 36.38, and IF03 of - 61.42 [12]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.54, IH01 of - 0.48, IH02 of 0.23, and IH03 of 2.65 [12]. Point Differences in Contract Roll - over and Annualized Costs of Stock Index Futures - The report provides data on the point differences in contract roll - over and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures at different time intervals, such as 15 - minute average values [20][22][24].

1. Index Trends - On September 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to close at 3812.22 points, with a trading volume of 821.114 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.38% to close at 12557.68 points, with a trading volume of 1157.009 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.06%, with a trading volume of 396.105 billion yuan. The opening price was 7214.23, the closing price was 7230.17, the highest price was 7296.0, and the lowest price was 7179.76 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.05%, with a trading volume of 359.667 billion yuan. The opening price was 6911.11, the closing price was 6932.11, the highest price was 6977.77, and the lowest price was 6870.4 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.37%, with a trading volume of 133.802 billion yuan. The opening price was 2928.11, the closing price was 2939.59, the highest price was 2954.44, and the lowest price was 2923.56 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 4.14 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as computer, communication, and electronics had a significant upward pull on the index, while sectors such as basic chemicals, machinery, and power equipment had a significant downward pull [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 3.14 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as electronics, media, and national defense and military industry had a significant upward pull on the index, while sectors such as basic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and power equipment had a significant downward pull [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 9.1 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as electronics, communication, and computer had a significant upward pull on the index, while sectors such as pharmaceuticals, non - ferrous metals, and power equipment had a significant downward pull [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 10.96 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as electronics, food and beverage, and communication had a significant upward pull on the index, while the non - banking financial sector had a significant downward pull [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 48.92, IM01 had - 111.1, IM02 had - 256.62, and IM03 had - 440.96 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 45.02, IC01 had - 105.35, IC02 had - 219.54, and IC03 had - 367.48 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 9.15, IF01 had - 17.91, IF02 had - 37.36, and IF03 had - 57.04 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 1.43, IH01 had - 2.54, IH02 had - 2.66, and IH03 had - 0.32 [13]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222, IC00 - 02 was - 225.568, etc. [23]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc. [24]. - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267, IM00 - 02 was - 259.4522, etc. [25]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678, IF00 - 02 was - 41.14122, etc. [26].