投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/9/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 较前值变动 | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.31 | -0.23 | DR007 | 1.59 | 3.17 | | ह | GC001 | 1.34 | -2.00 | GC007 | 1.49 | -38.50 | | E | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.36 | 0.50 | 5年期国债 | 1.62 | 0.50 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.81 | 0.75 | 10年期美债 | 4.20 | 2.00 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了2886亿元7天期逆回购操作,当日 ...

2025 |2025 9 Z0016367 wangying@nawaa.com Z0022951 liaocy@nawaa.com 2011 1290 0571-81727107 0571-89727506 | 1. | | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2. | | 2 | | 3. | | 5 | | | 3.1 | 5 | | | 3.1.1 | 5 | | | 3.1.2 | 7 | | | 3.1.3 | 7 | | | 3.2 | 10 | | | 3.2.1 11 | | | | 3.2.2 | 16 | | 4. | | 19 | | 2.1 | | | | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2.2 | | % | | 3 | | 2.3 | 3 | | | 3 | | 2.4 | 300 | | | 4 | | 2.5 | | | | 4 | | 3.1 | M2-M1 | | % | 6 | | 3.2 | | | % | 6 | | 3.3 | 9 | | | 7 | | 3.4 | | % | | 8 | | 3.5 | ...

股指、黄金周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20250926 惠农保价稳产 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 股指、黄金现货价格走势 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内外宏观经济数据 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 今年8月经济数据普遍转弱，固定资产投资增速继续下行，房地产投资降幅进一步扩大， 基建和制造业投资增速放缓。房地产销售短暂回暖后再次下滑，房企资金周转压力加 大，对土地购置和新项目建设保持谨慎。 IF 惠农保价稳产 IC IH AU 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 股指基本面数据 企业盈利 资金面 节前央行加大逆回购操作，市场流动性保持充裕。M1与M2之间的剪刀差收窄，社融增 速加快主要受政府债券发行放量的带动，包括超长期特别国债和地方专项债。 无风险利率：持有成本 通胀水平 美国第二季度GDP增速环比大幅上修至3.8%，创两年新高，当周初请失业金人数连续两 周下降。表明美国经济依然稳健，劳动力需求有所放缓，但仍在充分就业的范围内， 惠农保价稳产 沪深两市融资余额突破2.4万亿元，再创历史新高。央行本周共开展15674亿7天期和 9000亿14天期逆回购操 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | C | | C | | C | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | | C 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 期货执业证号:F3074875: 2025/9/26 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 较前值变动 较前值变动(bp) 品种 | 收盘价 | | 品种 | 收盘价 | | | | | | | | | (bp) | | | DROO1 | 1.47 | 3.76 | DR007 | 1.60 | 1.53 | | हि | GC001 -14.50 | 1.50 | | GC007 | 1.88 | -4.00 | | 而 | SHBOR 3M | 1.57 | 0.80 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.37 | 0.00 | 5年期国债 ...

利好共振 8月财政数据反映出当前经济边际承压，尤其是土地相关收入偏弱，政策继续发力的概率上升，后续关 注政策性金融工具落地情况。此外，企业所得税增速大幅提高彰显"反内卷"成效，PPI降幅收窄带动企 业利润出现回暖迹象。 全球宏观流动性改善 由于美国就业市场风险上行，上周美联储如期降息25个基点。根据点阵图，年内或仍有两次降息。"预 防式"降息周期开启，全球宏观流动性改善，有助于风险资产估值抬升。美元年内预计保持偏弱态势， 我国经济韧性较强，人民币汇率仍有升值动能，对人民币资产较为有利。国内方面，在9月22日的高质 量完成"十四五"规划系列主题新闻发布会上，央行表示，中国的货币政策坚持以我为主，兼顾内外均 衡，当前中国的货币政策立场是支持性的。证监会表示，截至今年8月底，各类中长期资金合计持有A 股流通市值约21.4万亿元，较"十三五"末增长32%。在当前经济修复动能仍不够稳固的情况下，未来货 币政策预计延续适度宽松的基调。微观资金面方面，在政策的积极支持下，中长期资金将持续入市，为 市场的稳健运行提供助力。近期非银存款持续高增，印证居民存款"搬家"仍在进行中。融资余额保持高 位，市场情绪活跃。因此，在全球宏观 ...

回顾:昨日收盘,沪深300上涨1.02%至4566.1;上证50上涨0.68%至 2939.5;中证500上涨1.99%至7323.7;中证1000上涨1.7%至7534.2。沪深 两市成交额达到23268亿,较昨日缩量1676亿。行业板块几乎全线上涨,电 子化学品、半导体、游戏、光伏设备、能源金属、房地产服务、电池板块 涨幅居前,仅旅游酒店板块逆市下跌。 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875: 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | 2025/9/25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.44 | 2.41 | DR007 | 1.59 | 11.09 | | हि | GC001 | 1.64 | 2.00 | GC007 | 1.92 | 12.50 | | B | SHBOR 3M | 1.57 | 0.40 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | ...

Global Asset Market Performance - 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: US 4.128%, UK 4.714%, France 3.553%, etc. Latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes vary by country [3] - 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: China (1Y) 3.520%, US 3.976%, UK 2.019%, etc. with corresponding changes [3] - Dollar exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies on September 19, 2025: South Africa zar 5.324, Russia 17.344, etc. with different changes over different periods [3] - RMB data on September 19, 2025: on - shore RMB 7.118, off - shore RMB 7.119, etc. with various changes [3] - Stock indices of major economies on September 19, 2025: Dow Jones 6664.360, S&P 500 46315.270, etc. with percentage changes over different time frames [3] - Credit bond indices: latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes of emerging - economy investment - grade, high - yield, US investment - grade, etc. are presented [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - A - share closing prices: A - share 3820.09, CSI 300 4501.92, etc. with corresponding percentage changes [5] - Valuation data: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 13.96, S&P 500 is 27.73, etc. with环比 changes [5] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.52, German DAX is 2.38 with环比 changes [5] - Fund flow data: latest values and 5 - day average values of A - shares, main board, etc. are given [5] - Trading volume data: latest values and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are shown [5] - Futures basis and premium/discount data: IF basis is - 37.52, IH basis is 3.66, etc. with corresponding percentages [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Treasury futures closing prices: T00 107.835, TF00 105.675, etc. with percentage changes [6] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.4993%, R007 1.5160%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5620% with daily changes in basis points [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly presents the performance data of various global asset markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On September 12, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc., were 4.022, 4.606, 3.441 respectively. There were no latest changes, but significant weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were observed. For example, the US had a one - year change of 0.266, while Italy had a one - year change of - 0.206 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On September 12, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 3.540, 3.927, 1.983 respectively. Weekly, monthly, and yearly changes also varied. For instance, the US had a one - year change of - 0.020, while Japan had a one - year change of 0.484 [3]. - **USD Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: As of September 12, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc., were 5.389, 108.000 respectively. There were no latest changes, and weekly, monthly, and yearly changes differed. For example, the Brazilian real had a one - year change of - 4.48% against the US dollar [3]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On September 12, 2025, the values of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc., were 6587.470, 46108.000 respectively. There were no latest changes, but weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were notable. For example, the S&P 500 had a one - year change of 19.34% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: There were no latest changes in the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. Weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were positive in most cases. For example, the US high - yield credit bond index had a one - year change of 8.93% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc., were 3870.60, 4522.00 respectively, with different percentage changes. For example, the A - shares had a change of - 0.12% [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 14.13, 11.90 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums of the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 3.70, 5.77 respectively, with no环比 changes [5]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of A - shares, the main board, etc., were 1342.66, 657.95 respectively [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc., were 25209.25, 6895.76 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC were 1.20, 0.06, - 7.75 respectively, with corresponding basis spreads [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, etc., were 107.880, 105.760 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.14%, 0.19% respectively [6]. - **Funding Rates and Daily Changes**: The funding rates of R001, R007, etc., were 1.3979%, 1.4651% respectively, with daily changes of - 9.00BP, - 2.00BP respectively [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current margin balance is less than 30 billion yuan from the historical high. Among public - fund categories with a high proportion of stock investment, only partial - stock hybrid funds still have some room for position replenishment. The end of the rapid capital inflow window coincides with the military parade time point. It is expected that the subsequent upward rhythm of the market may slow down, and attention should be paid to the risk of a staged correction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August reached a three - year high of 50.7, up from 49.8 in July, and expanded for the first time since mid - 2022. In China, President Xi Jinping chaired the 25th meeting of the Council of Heads of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Member states signed and issued multiple important documents [1]. - **Spot Market**: A - share major indices closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.46% to 3875.53 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.29%. Most sector indices increased, with communication, non - ferrous metals, pharmaceutical biology, and electronics leading the gains, while non - bank finance, banking, and household appliances led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.75 trillion yuan. U.S. stocks were closed for the Labor Day holiday [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures deepened rapidly, and the basis of IC and IM was at a historically low level. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined simultaneously [1]. 3.2 Strategy - The current margin balance is close to the historical high, and only partial - stock hybrid funds have room for position replenishment. The end of the rapid capital inflow window points to the military parade time, so the market's upward rhythm may slow down, and there is a risk of a staged correction [2]. 3.3 Charts - **Macroeconomic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the U.S. dollar index and A - share trends, U.S. Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and U.S. Treasury yields and A - share style trends [4][5]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Present the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on September 1, 2025, and August 31, 2025, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc., along with their daily changes. Also include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin balance [4][5][12]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Provide data on the trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts, their changes, the basis of different contracts, and the inter - period spreads of different contracts. There are also charts showing the open interest, open - interest ratio, and net open interest of foreign investors for different contracts [4][5][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current market liquidity remains abundant, with A - share daily trading volume at a relatively high level above 2.5 trillion. The macro - level influencing factors are generally favorable, with the 8 - month China manufacturing PMI rising slightly to 49.4% and an increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Strategically, short - term long positions can be tilted towards IF or IH to reduce position fluctuations and risks [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data of Financial Instruments - The closing price of DR001 is 1.31, down 1.73bp; DR007 is 1.45, down 7.04bp; GC001 is 1.02, down 2.00bp; GC007 is 1.44, down 2.00bp; SHBOR 3M is 1.55, down 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year is 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond is 1.36, down 0.25bp; 5 - year treasury bond is 1.59, down 1.00bp; 10 - year treasury bond is 1.77, down 1.00bp; 10 - year US treasury bond is 4.23, up 1.00bp [4]. - The closing price of CSI 300 is 4524, up 0.60%; SSE 50 is 2981, up 0.16%; CSI 500 is 7110, up 0.94%; CSI 1000 is 7501, up 0.84%. The trading volume of IF is 144297, down 27.7%; its open interest is 276618, down 5.7%. The trading volume of IH is 54597, down 33.0%; its open interest is down 10.2%. The trading volume of IC is 126661, down 23.9%; its open interest is 235990, down 5.0%. The trading volume of IM is 251805, down 24.0%; its open interest is 375228, down 3.3% [6]. Central Bank Operations - Last week, the central bank conducted 2.2731 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. With 2.077 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases, 300 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF, 400 billion yuan of 91 - day outright repurchases, and 500 billion yuan of 182 - day outright repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 403.9 billion yuan in all - caliber funds [4]. - This week, 2.2731 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, with 288.4 billion, 405.8 billion, 379.9 billion, 416.1 billion, and 782.9 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day outright repurchases will mature on Friday [5]. Market Conditions - Yesterday, most industry sectors closed higher. The precious metals sector soared, with jewelry, biological products, energy metals, medical services, and chemical pharmaceuticals leading the gains, while insurance and aerospace sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 48.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6]. Futures Premium and Discount - The premium rates of IF for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 5.88%, 3.63%, 2.66%, and 2.32% respectively. The premium rates of IH are 1.09%, 0.85%, 0.14%, and - 0.12% respectively. The premium rate of IC for the current - month contract is 27.23%. The premium rates of IM for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 32.59%, 19.78%, 14.34%, and 12.31% respectively [8].