1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors remain the core concern of the market. After the Trump administration released more signals of easing the situation, most global equity markets rebounded. The domestic market also showed a shrinking - volume rebound. Attention should be paid to potential positive factors from domestic policies. If the market trading volume effectively increases in the future, it is expected to drive the market to form a trend - upward [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: The State Administration for Market Regulation held a symposium on price supervision and anti - unfair competition work, emphasizing efforts in various aspects such as deepening price supervision, rectifying "involution - style" competition, and strengthening anti - unfair competition law enforcement [1]. - **Geopolitical - aspect**: Trump stated that the US had "won" in the action against Iran, and the US proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, including requirements on nuclear plans, missile capabilities, and regional issues [1]. 3.2 Index Performance - **Spot Market**: A - share major indices rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.78% to 3881.28 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.5%. Most sector indices rose, with only the petroleum and petrochemical, and coal industries closing down. The environmental protection, textile and apparel, building materials, and non - ferrous metal industries led the gains. The trading volume on that day was 2.1 trillion yuan. As of the end of February, the scale of existing private equity funds reached 22.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 160 billion yuan from the end of the previous month, hitting a new high. Overseas, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in March dropped to 51.4, a new low in 11 months. The manufacturing and service sectors showed different trends: the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, exceeding expectations, while the service PMI dropped to 51.1, also a new low in 11 months. The three major US stock indices closed down, with the Nasdaq falling 0.84% to 21761.89 points [2]. - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of IF, IH, and IM decreased. In terms of trading volume and open interest, both the trading volume and open interest of index futures decreased [2]. 3.3 Strategy - Geopolitical factors are still the core focus of the market. After the Trump administration released more signals of easing the situation, most global equity markets rebounded. The domestic market showed a shrinking - volume rebound. Attention should be paid to potential positive factors from domestic policies. If the market trading volume effectively increases in the future, it is expected to drive the market to form a trend - upward [3]. 3.4 Chart Information - **Macro - economic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][8][10]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on March 24, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. There are also charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM index futures, including the current values and changes. Table 3 shows the basis of index futures (futures - spot). Table 4 shows the inter - period spreads of index futures. There are also multiple charts related to the open interest, net open interest of foreign capital, basis, and inter - period spreads of different index futures contracts [17][39][45].

Group 1: Interest Rates - DRO01 increased by 1.32bp, DR007 decreased by 1.44bp, GC001 decreased by 3.50bp, GC007 increased by 6.50bp, SHBOR 3M decreased by 0.22bp, 1 - year Treasury increased by 1.44bp, 5 - year Treasury decreased by 0.40bp, 10 - year Treasury increased by 1.97bp, and 10 - year US Treasury decreased by 5.00bp [3] - The central bank conducted 175 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%, and 510 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 335 billion yuan [3] - This week, 2423 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 4500 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Wednesday [3] Group 2: Stock Indexes - The CSI 300 rose 1.28% to 4474.7, the SSE 50 rose 1.38% to 2830.9, the CSI 500 rose 2.11% to 7597.4, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.59% to 7600.9 [3] - The trading volume of the three major stock markets in Beijing was 2096.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 352.3 billion yuan from the previous day [3] - Industry sectors all rose, with ground military equipment, power, trade, environmental protection, medical services, decoration building materials, industrial metals, public utilities, professional engineering, power grid equipment, and textile and clothing sectors leading the gains [3] - Due to the repeated situation in the Middle East and market rumors of US - Iran negotiations, the risk preference significantly increased, and the stock index rebounded. Although external shocks still exist, the stock index is expected to fluctuate. The postponement of Trump's ultimatum provides a short - term breathing window, increasing the probability of a short - term oversold rebound. The possibility of policy support has increased, and the stock index is expected to have limited further decline and is bullish in the long - term [3] Group 3: Futures Contracts - For IF, the volume decreased by 25.1%, and the open interest decreased by 4.7%; for IH, the volume decreased by 24.6%, and the open interest decreased by 7.8%; for IC, the volume decreased by 10.3%; for IM, the volume decreased by 10.0% [3] - IF had a discount of 8.61% in the current - month contract, 3.97% in the next - month contract, 8.09% in the current - quarter contract, and 7.77% in the next - quarter contract; IH had a discount of 2.50% in the current - month contract, 1.15% in the next - month contract, 3.00% in the current - quarter contract, and 4.19% in the next - quarter contract; IC had a discount of 8.52% in the current - month contract, 10.46% in the next - month contract, 10.37% in the current - quarter contract, and 9.66% in the next - quarter contract; IM had a discount of 11.84% in the current - month contract, 9.66% in the next - month contract, 11.79% in the current - quarter contract, and 11.53% in the next - quarter contract [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the performance of global asset markets including 10 - year and 2 - year government bonds of major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, major economy stock indices, and credit bond indices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year government bonds**: The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Greece, Japan, Brazil, China, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand are 4.345, 4.915, 3.709, 3.002, 3.875, 3.513, 0.382, 3.855, 2.304, 6.298, 1.840, N/A, 5.118, 4.883 respectively [3] - **2 - year government bonds**: The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in the US, UK, Germany, Japan, Italy, China (1 - year yield), South Korea, and Australia are 3.854, 4.412, 2.571, 1.293, 2.827, 1.250, N/A, 4.817 respectively [3] - **Exchange rates**: The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, South African rand, South Korean won, Thai baht, and Malaysian ringgit are 5.235, N/A, 16.820, 1488.350, 33.000, N/A respectively. The latest on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates are 6.884, the RMB central parity rate is 6.904, and the 12 - month NDF is 6.728 [3] - **Stock indices**: The latest values of major economy stock indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Index, NASDAQ, Mexican index, UK index, French CAC, German DAX, Spanish index, Russian index, Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Taiwan index, South Korean index, Indian index, Thai index, Malaysian index, Australian index, and emerging - economy index are 6581.000, 46208.470, 21946.760, 64370.950, 9894.150, 7726.200, 22653.860, 16888.200, N/A, 51515.490, 24382.470, 3813.283, 32722.500, 5405.750, N/A, 1397.340, N/A, 8552.642, 1419.950 respectively [3] - **Credit bond indices**: The latest values of US investment - grade, euro - area investment - grade, emerging - economy investment - grade, US high - yield, euro - area high - yield, and emerging - economy high - yield credit bond indices are 3518.560, 263.418, 286.650, 2900.390, 404.460, 1807.438 respectively [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 3813.28, 4418.00, 2792.33, 3235.22, 7440.75 respectively, with percentage changes of - 3.63%, - 3.26%, - 3.17%, - 3.49%, - 4.11% [4] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are 13.61, 11.11, 33.60, 25.75, 16.36 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.41, - 0.33, - 1.48, 0.29, 0.20 [4] - **Risk premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 and German DAX are - 0.46, 3.11 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.01, - 0.04 [4] - **Fund flow**: The latest values of fund flow in A - shares, the main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 1165.82, - 790.08, N/A, - 247.62, - 273.17 respectively, and the 5 - day average values are - 1062.59, - 815.58, N/A, - 166.72, - 172.62 respectively [4] Transaction Data of Other Markets - **Transaction amount**: The latest transaction amounts of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium - sized board, and ChiNext are 24315.18, 6717.20, 1739.93, 4659.68, 6124.16 respectively, with环比 changes of 1447.07, 562.57, 382.62, 494.51, - 471.44 [5] - **Main contract basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC are - 73.60, - 16.33, - 205.75 respectively, with basis spreads of - 1.67%, - 0.58%, - 2.77% [5] - **Treasury futures**: The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are 108.15, 105.92, 108.11, 105.72 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.10%, - 0.06%, - 0.08%, - 0.07% [5] - **Funding rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.3961%, 1.4763%, 1.5182% respectively, with daily changes of - 8.00 BP, 0.00 BP, 0.00 BP [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - **Stock Index**: Due to increased intensity between the US and Iran, decreased market liquidity and risk appetite, and the indication from the MACD indicator, the stock index is expected to face pressure and move in a range - bound and weak - oscillating manner [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Despite the continuous decline of risk assets, it has not stimulated the improvement of sentiment in the ultra - long end. The steepened yield curve may continue due to unfriendly fundamental factors and geopolitical factors. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy - **Trend Review**: Most stocks fell, with nearly 4,800 stocks declining in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets [11]. - **Core View**: Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, along with relevant policies and economic data, may cause the stock index to face pressure. The MACD indicator shows a possible weak - oscillating trend for the market index [11]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Range - bound oscillation [11]. Treasury Bond Strategy - **Trend Review**: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all declined [12]. - **Core View**: Institutions are more interested in the medium - short end, and the steepened curve may continue due to unfriendly fundamentals and geopolitical factors. The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may oscillate [12]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Oscillating operation [12]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%. The decline was in line with seasonality, but there were also structural risks, such as a significant decline in external demand and an increasing risk of imported inflation [18]. CPI - In February 2026, the year - on - year CPI increased by 1.3%, and the month - on - month increase was 1.0%. The PPI year - on - year decline narrowed, and the month - on - month increase remained flat. After the Spring Festival, the CPI may face downward pressure, while the PPI may turn positive in March due to rising oil prices [20]. Import and Export - From January to February 2026, China's exports were $656.58 billion, imports were $442.96 billion, and the trade surplus was $213.62 billion. The high - growth of exports was mainly due to the upward cycle of global manufacturing and the "rush - to - export" effect [22]. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to February, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment rebounded to 1.8%. Manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all improved. The growth rate of manufacturing investment rebounded to 3.1%, and infrastructure investment (including electricity) rebounded to 11.4% [25]. Social Retail - From January to February, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales rebounded to 2.8%, exceeding market expectations. Necessary consumption and catering revenue performed well during the Spring Festival, while durable - goods consumption showed differentiation [27]. Social Financing - In February 2026, the new social financing was 2.4 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 0.9 trillion yuan. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.2% year - on - year, and M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year. Social financing increased year - on - year, mainly supported by credit and non - standard financing. The social financing growth rate may face downward pressure but is expected to remain in an appropriate range [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, considering both internal and external factors, it is expected that the stock index will continue its weak oscillation pattern. In the future, as the overall economic tone meets expectations, multiple policies continue to work together to promote economic growth, macro - liquidity remains abundant, and capital market policies aim to nurture a "slow - bull" market, the stock index is expected to have room for an upward trend. With the easing of external geopolitical situations and the recovery of market risk appetite, the stock index is expected to consolidate and resume its upward movement. The investment view is to go long in the medium - to - long term, and the trading strategy is to choose the right time to go long in the medium - to - long term, with overseas geopolitical factors being the risk to watch [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Economic and Corporate Profits**: The economic indicators from January to February continued the pattern of "mixed hot and cold". The production side was strong, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 6.3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 5.0%. The demand side was generally weak. The total retail sales of consumer goods from January to February was 75,815 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.5%, in line with market expectations. The investment growth rate turned slightly positive, with national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) reaching 52,721 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. Infrastructure investment was the core driver, with a year - on - year increase of 11.4%, while real estate investment was still in the adjustment period, with a 11.1% decline in real estate development investment from January to February [3]. - **Policy**: The probability of "bottom - support" policies in the capital market has increased. The A - share capital market remains well - funded, providing strong support for the stock index. After the sharp adjustment of the stock index last week, the probability of policy - level support has increased [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The uncertainty of the Middle East conflict persists, impacting the equity market. The tightening of the global geopolitical situation has pushed up oil prices, increased global inflationary pressure, and restricted the interest - rate cut space of major overseas central banks, leading to a risk of tightening global liquidity. The upstream energy price increase has squeezed the profit margins of domestic mid - and downstream high - end manufacturing industries [3]. - **Liquidity**: Market sentiment cooled significantly last week, and A - share trading volume shrank sharply. The average daily trading volume decreased by 244.62 billion yuan compared with the previous week [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index fell 2.19% to 4,567; the Shanghai 50 Index fell 2.47% to 2,883.9; the CSI 500 Index fell 5.82% to 7,760; the CSI 1000 Index fell 5.25% to 7,783.4 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Most Shenwan primary industry indices declined. Only the communication (2.1%) and banking (0.4%) sectors rose, while non - ferrous metals (- 11.8%), basic chemicals (- 10.5%), steel (- 10.3%), comprehensive (- 8%), and building materials (- 7.9%) sectors led the decline [7]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CSI 300 futures, Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 34.03%, 44.45%, 20.74%, and 26.76% respectively. The open interest of CSI 300 futures, Shanghai 50 futures, and CSI 500 futures decreased by 3.86%, 4.31%, and 2.05% respectively, while the open interest of CSI 1000 futures increased by 2.77% [11]. - **Futures Premium and Discount**: As of March 20, the monthly contracts expired. The annualized discounts of the next - month contracts IF2604, IH2604, IC2604, and IM2604 were 7.71%, 1.11%, 10.66%, and 9.32% respectively; the annualized discounts of the current - quarter contracts IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, and IM2606 were 7.08%, 2.51%, 10.37%, and 11.51% respectively; the annualized discounts of the next - quarter contracts IF2609, IH2609, IC2609, and IM2609 were 7.04%, 3.57%, 9.75%, and 11.32% respectively [12]. - **Cross - Variety Spread Performance**: The spread between the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai 50 was 1,683.2, at the 97.5% historical quantile level; the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was 23.4, at the 23.9% historical quantile level; the ratio of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 to the CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 26.9% historical quantile level; the ratio of the Shanghai 50 to the CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 20.3% historical quantile level [17]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 242.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, with 176.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 65.8 billion yuan. Next week, 242.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 450 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Wednesday [23]. - **Market Volume and Margin Trading**: As of March 19, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2,641.71 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.57 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market trading volume was 9%, at the 63.7% quantile level in the past ten years. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 244.62 billion yuan compared with the previous week. As of March 20, the risk premium rate of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was 5.3, at the 53.4% quantile level in the past ten years [29]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Profits - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In February 2026, the industrial added value increased by 6.3% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year; real estate investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year; infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year - on - year; social consumer goods retail increased by 2.8% year - on - year; the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%; CPI was 1.3%; PPI was - 0.9%; the increment of social financing was 23,855 billion yuan; the growth rate of social financing stock was 8.2%; the new RMB loans were 8,458 billion yuan; M1 was 5.9%; M2 was 9.0%; exports increased by 39.6% year - on - year; imports increased by 13.8% year - on - year; the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5% [32]. - **Corporate Profit Indicators**: The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and other major broad - based indices, as well as the ROE (TTM) of these indices, are presented in the report [43]. The profitability of Shenwan primary industry indices, including the year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders and ROE (TTM), is also provided [44]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driven - **Recent Macro - Policy Trends**: A series of policies have been introduced, including setting economic growth targets, fiscal policies such as deficit ratios, special bond issuance, and measures to expand domestic demand. In the real estate sector, policies aim to maintain stability and adjust housing purchase restrictions. In the capital market, policies focus on improving the market mechanism and increasing support [48][49][50]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In February, the US manufacturing PMI was 52.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 56.1%, a 2.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous value. The consumer confidence index in March was 55.5, a 1.1 increase from the previous value. The seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate in February was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was - 92,000. In January, the year - on - year increase in PCE was 2.83%, and the year - on - year increase in core PCE was 3.06%. The year - on - year increase in CPI was 2.4%, and the year - on - year increase in core CPI was 2.5% [61][63][68]. 3.7 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation**: As of March 20, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14, 11.4, 35.1, and 47.2 respectively, at the 77.7%, 77.3%, 76.7%, and 67% quantile levels since October 2014 [70].

Report Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - Macro situation is gradually stabilizing, and stock index fluctuations are converging [1] - Overseas conflict situation has eased, and overall macro risk appetite has stabilized. The next round of China-US consultations will be held soon, and the market may expect the two countries to reach new consensus [4] - A-share major indexes have entered a phase of volatility with decreasing volatility, and the market style switches frequently. Energy is one of the few sectors maintaining a strong upward trend. Technically, there is no sign of a breakthrough trend yet. Fundamental economic data is greatly affected by holidays, and it is necessary to continue to wait and observe the recovery rhythm. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach and combine with a small amount of bull spread options [4] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Indicators - **Market Overview**: This week, the four major index futures contracts fluctuated narrowly with the index. IF and IH increased by 0.18% and decreased by 1.15% respectively; IC and IM decreased by 1.39% and 0.33% respectively. From the changes in the positions of the top 20 seats, the net short positions of IF decreased by 2,288 lots, those of IH increased by 193 lots, those of IC decreased by 4,868 lots, and those of IM decreased by 4,345 lots. As of this Friday, the optimal rollover contracts for IF, IH, IC, and IM were all the 2604 contracts [10] - **A-shares**: This week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decreased by 1.07%, the Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 1.54%, the CSI 500 Index decreased by 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 3.64% [10] - **Basis and Cross-variety Ratios**: The basis of the four major index futures contracts fluctuated neutrally, and the market's long and short forces were relatively balanced. The current basis of the IF main contract was -11.14 points, that of the IH main contract was 0.15 points, that of the IC main contract was -26.0 points, and that of the IM main contract was -27.29 points. This week, the futures contract ratios, PE ratios, and PB ratios of CSI 1000/Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500/Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 decreased, and the market was mainly in a state of shock [10] - **Industry Sector Performance**: This week, most of the Wind primary industry indexes declined, while the energy sector rose against the trend. The top rising sectors included materials, energy, and public utilities, with increases of 8.03%, 6.31%, and 5.50% respectively; the top falling sectors included communication services, finance, and daily consumption, with decreases of 3.20%, 1.10%, and 0.18% respectively [13] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the four major index futures significantly shrank [14] - **Spot-futures Price Difference Trend**: The basis fluctuated and declined, and seasonality gradually emerged [19] - **Inter-period Spread Trend**: The text provides the inter-period spread trends of IF, IC, IH, and IM [24] - **Cross-variety Ratios**: The futures ratios, PE ratios, and PB ratios of some cross-varieties decreased, and the market was mainly in a state of shock [32] - **Positions of the Top 20 Seats and Market Trends**: The long-short ratio has rebounded [40] - **Short Rollover Costs**: The annualized short rollover cost of the next-month contract was the lowest [47] 2. Macro Fundamental Tracking - **Domestic High-frequency Macroeconomic Tracking**: In January, the M1 and M2 increased by 4.9% and 9.0% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rates accelerated by 1.1 and 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month. The credit of the enterprise sector increased significantly year-on-year. From January to December 2025, the national fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, and the national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, with the decline still expanding. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the CPI increased by 1.0% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.8% year-on-year. The PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing continuously. In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year. In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 49.5%. The automobile production and consumption showed that the full-steel tire and semi-steel tire increased by 36.73% and 39.47% respectively compared with last week. From January to February, exports (in US dollars) increased by 21.8% year-on-year, imports increased by 19.8% year-on-year, and the trade surplus was 213.62 billion US dollars [59] - **Real Estate**: The land transactions in first-tier cities significantly rebounded. In 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, and the decline continued to expand. At the beginning of 2026, the commercial housing transactions slightly rebounded [60][67] - **Consumption**: The decline of PPI continued to narrow, and the Spring Festival had a significant boost to the consumer price index [72] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: The steel tire operating rate continued to rise, and automobile sales declined in January [76] - **Foreign Trade**: From January to February, foreign trade had a good start, and the global manufacturing cycle was on the rise [84] 3. Liquidity Tracking - **Liquidity Indicator Tracking**: On March 13, the SHIBOR overnight interest rate was 1.32%, unchanged from last week. The loan market quotation rate remained unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%. This week, the central bank conducted 176.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. Due to the maturity of 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, the net withdrawal for the whole week was 101.1 billion yuan. This week, A-share funds had a cumulative net active sell-off of 314.79 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume of A-shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly shrank to 2.48 trillion yuan, the margin trading balance increased, and the stock ETF funds had a net outflow of 1.0503 billion yuan [91][92]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Not mentioned in the provided content Summary by Directory Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Bonds**: Latest yields for major economies include 4.158% in the US, 4.552% in the UK, 3.443% in France, 2.834% in Germany, 3.524% in Italy, 3.290% in Spain, 0.351% in Switzerland, 3.514% in Greece, 2.171% in Japan, 6.076% in Brazil, 1.817% in China, and 4.847% in Australia [1] - **2 - year Treasury Bonds**: Latest yields are 3.593% in the US, 3.860% in the UK, 2.248% in Germany, 1.245% in Japan, 2.426% in Italy, 1.271% in China (1Y yield), and 4.433% in Australia [1] - **Dollar - Emerging Economy Currency Exchange Rates**: Latest rates are 5.159 for the dollar against the Brazilian real, 16.291 against the South African rand, 1466.050 against the South Korean won, 31.615 against the Thai baht, and 3.924 against the Malaysian ringgit. The on - shore RMB is 6.869, the off - shore RMB is 6.879, the RMB central parity rate is 6.898, and the RMB 12 - month NDF is 6.748 [1] - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: Latest values are 6781.480 for the S&P 500, 47706.510 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 22697.100 for the Nasdaq, 67397.940 for the Mexican index, 10412.240 for the UK index, 8057.360 for the French CAC, 23968.630 for the German DAX, 17445.000 for the Spanish index, 54248.390 for the Nikkei, 25959.900 for the Hang Seng Index, 4123.138 for the Shanghai Composite Index, 32771.870 for the Taiwan index, 5532.590 for the South Korean index, 7440.913 for the Indian index, 1405.760 for the Thai index, 1701.680 for the Malaysian index, 8924.227 for the Australian index, and 1504.330 for the emerging economies' index [1] - **Credit Bond Indices**: Latest values are 3561.750 for the US investment - grade credit bond index, 266.918 for the euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, 290.890 for the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index, 2928.260 for the US high - yield credit bond index, 410.440 for the euro - zone high - yield credit bond index, and 1842.996 for the emerging economies' high - yield credit bond index [1] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: Closing prices are 4123.14 for A - shares, 4674.76 for the CSI 300, 2981.84 for the SSE 50, 3306.14 for the ChiNext, and 8410.30 for the CSI 500. The percentage changes are 0.65%, 1.28%, 0.64%, 3.04%, and 1.58% respectively [2] - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) values are 14.15 for the CSI 300, 11.48 for the SSE 50, 37.76 for the CSI 500, 26.51 for the S&P 500, and 17.90 for the German DAX. The环比 changes are 0.00, - 0.06, 0.58, - 0.06, and 0.33 respectively [2] - **Risk Premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate is - 0.39 for the S&P 500 and 2.75 for the German DAX. The环比 changes are - 0.06 and - 0.09 respectively [2] - **Fund Flows**: The latest values are 349.57 for A - shares, 3.60 for the main board, 216.78 for the ChiNext, and 93.77 for the CSI 300. The 5 - day average values are - 119.52 for A - shares, - 182.70 for the main board, 44.93 for the ChiNext, and - 11.84 for the CSI 300 [2] Other Trading Data - **Transaction Amount**: The latest transaction amount for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 23978.88, with a环比 change of - 2496.57. For the CSI 300, it is 1217.62 with a环比 change of - 495.95; for the SSE 50, it is 4641.20 with a环比 change of - 423.03; for the small - and medium - sized board, it is 6449.02 with a环比 change of - 52.77 [3] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis for IF is - 10.76 with a basis amplitude of - 0.23%, for IH it is - 0.44 with a basis amplitude of - 0.01%, and for IC it is - 16.70 with a basis amplitude of - 0.20% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Closing prices are 108.34 for T2303, 105.93 for TF2303, 108.31 for T2306, and 105.98 for TF2306. The percentage changes are - 0.02%, - 0.04%, - 0.01%, and - 0.00% respectively [3] - **Funding Rates**: R001 is 1.3917% with a daily change of - 11.00 BP, R007 is 1.5029% with a daily change of 0.00 BP, and SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5492% with a daily change of 0.00 BP [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East conflict. If geopolitical tensions ease, the short - term adjustment of stock indices will bring good long - position layout opportunities. The market sentiment recovered quickly and the stock indices broke upward after the Israel - Iran conflict in 2025 [7]. - The approaching "Two Sessions" in China, with expectations of incremental policies and stability - maintenance needs, will support the stock indices, and the short - term shock adjustment space of stock indices is expected to be relatively limited [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market and Liquidity - DRO01 closed at 1.27, down 4.52bp; DR007 at 1.45, down 1.24bp; GC001 at 1.18, up 10.00bp; GC007 at 1.48, up 2.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.57, down 0.28bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury at 1.30, down 0.82bp; 5 - year treasury at 1.54, up 0.23bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.78, up 0.24bp; 10 - year US treasury at 4.05, up 8.00bp [4]. - The central bank conducted 343 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 526 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal on the day was 491.7 billion yuan [4]. - This week (March 1 - 6), there will be 1.525 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market, and 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on March 6 [5]. Stock Index Futures - The closing prices and the changes compared with the previous day of major stock indices: CSI 300 closed at 4656, down 1.54%; SSE 50 at 3014, down 1.06%; CSI 500 at 8282, down 4.35%; CSI 1000 at 8142, down 3.95%. The closing prices and changes of corresponding stock index futures contracts were also provided [6]. - The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts and their changes were presented. For example, IF trading volume increased by 29.4% to 166,629, and its open interest increased by 0.1% to 287,927 [6]. Stock Index Futures Basis - The basis of IF contracts for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter were 2.07%, 2.87%, 3.58%, and 4.52% respectively; for IH were - 3.37%, - 0.57%, 0.46%, and 2.52% respectively; for IC were 4.00%, 6.54%, 5.93%, and 6.39% respectively; for IM were 3.44%, 5.32%, 8.01%, and 8.46% respectively [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The panic caused by geopolitical factors has eased. The A-share market opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai 50 closing in the green. The market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven", and the performance - supported sectors will have sustainable opportunities. In the short term, the risk appetite has declined due to geopolitical disturbances, but in the long term, the stock index trend will return to the domestic fundamentals [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts on the previous day were 4711.20 (current month), 4702.60 (next month), 4665.20 (next quarter), and 4601.00 (next - next quarter), with changes of 3.20, 0.80, - 3.00, and - 7.60 respectively. The trading volumes were 83457.00, 5407.00, 28338.00, and 11606.00, and the open interest changes were 3800.00, 1857.00, 5225.00, and 2166.00 [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts on the previous day were 3045.80 (current month), 3043.80 (next month), 3038.40 (next quarter), and 3003.20 (next - next quarter), with changes of 2.40, - 0.60, - 0.40, and - 0.60 respectively. The trading volumes were 41055.00, 2482.00, 12318.00, and 5279.00, and the open interest changes were 2029.00, 409.00, 2096.00, and 209.00 [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts on the previous day were 8627.00 (current month), 8603.00 (next month), 8502.00 (next quarter), and 8351.00 (next - next quarter), with changes of - 6.00, - 7.20, - 10.00, and - 18.60 respectively. The trading volumes were 105223.00, 8423.00, 48791.00, and 16369.00, and the open interest changes were 4071.00, 2545.00, 3496.00, and 1914.00 [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts on the previous day were 8423.80 (current month), 8380.20 (next month), 8230.60 (next quarter), and 8029.00 (next - next quarter), with changes of - 97.80, - 95.20, - 94.00, and - 94.20 respectively. The trading volumes were 142245.00, 8915.00, 52969.00, and 21847.00, and the open interest changes were 3839.00, 3449.00, 6522.00, and 3851.00 [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 8.60, - 2.00, - 24.00, and - 43.60 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 7.40, 1.60, - 25.20, and - 45.20 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index increased by 0.38%, the Shanghai 50 index increased by 0.23%, the CSI 500 index remained unchanged, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 0.98% [1]. - **Industry Performance**: The energy, raw materials, industrial, and telecommunications sectors had positive growth rates of 7.78%, 2.91%, 0.64%, and 2.32% respectively, while the main consumption, pharmaceutical, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had negative growth rates of - 1.00%, - 1.98%, - 0.30%, and - 1.36% respectively [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Basis**: The basis of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, next - next quarter) to the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index on the previous day was - 17.47, - 26.07, - 63.47, and - 127.67 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of 3.15, - 4.25, - 37.25, and - 96.05 [1]. - **IH Basis**: The basis of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, next - next quarter) to the Shanghai 50 index on the previous day was - 0.67, - 2.67, - 8.07, and - 43.27 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of 5.97, 7.57, 1.57, and - 34.43 [1]. - **IC Basis**: The basis of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, next - next quarter) to the CSI 500 index on the previous day was - 31.33, - 55.33, - 156.33, and - 307.33 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 13.05, - 38.25, - 133.25, and - 282.25 [1]. - **IM Basis**: The basis of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, next - next quarter) to the CSI 1000 index on the previous day was - 53.17, - 96.77, - 246.37, and - 447.97 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 29.44, - 74.64, - 230.24, and - 431.44 [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.20%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.14%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.49% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 2.14%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 1.35%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.04%, and the DAX Index decreased by 2.42% [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - **Diplomatic Statements**: China urges all parties to stop military actions in the Middle East. The report about China - Iran missile procurement is untrue. There is no information about Trump's visit to China [2]. - **US - Iran Situation**: The US continues military operations in Iran, which may last 4 - 5 weeks. Iran refuses to negotiate with the US [2]. - **US Tariff Issue**: Over $175 billion of illegal tariffs will enter the refund process [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - **Tourism**: The China Travel Service Association calls for ensuring the safety of tourists in the Middle East [2]. - **Aviation**: The ticket prices of China - Europe routes have soared due to flight cancellations [2]. - **Phosphorus Fertilizer**: Industry associations call for stabilizing the phosphorus fertilizer market [2]. - **Smartphones**: Mobile phone prices are expected to rise due to increased chip costs [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of trade issues and macroeconomic policies, particularly focusing on the government's efforts to stimulate new growth points and enhance the silver economy and elderly care services [2][9] - During the recent Spring Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 596 million trips, an increase of 95 million trips compared to the previous year, with total spending of 803.48 billion yuan, marking a historical high for both visitor numbers and expenditures [2][9] - The U.S. has officially begun imposing a 10% global tariff, with plans to potentially increase the rate to 15%, indicating a significant shift in trade policy [2][9] Group 2 - The A-share market saw all major indices close in the green, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.87% to 4117.41 points and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.99%, reflecting a positive market sentiment [3][10] - The trading volume in the domestic market was approximately 2 trillion yuan, indicating a slight increase in trading activity [3][10] - The futures market showed a decrease in both trading volume and open interest for stock index futures, suggesting a potential reduction in market speculation [10][11] Group 3 - The overall market factors in the domestic environment appear stable, with investor sentiment trending towards stability, which may lead to a continued pattern of volume contraction and market recovery [4][11]