热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 汪雅航 市场分析 关注贸易问题。宏观方面，国务院常务会议部署做好春节假期后政府工作，要求着力抓好重点任务落 实，支持地方和企业积极探索打造新增长点。会议研究推进银发经济和养老服务发展有关工作，指出要 进一步释放银发消费需求，发挥消费补贴等政策牵引作用，推动普惠养老服务供给提质扩面。经文化和 旅游部数据中心测算，春节假日9天，全国国内出游5.96亿人次，较2025年春节假日8天增加0.95亿人 次；国内出游总花费8034.83亿元，较2025年春节假日8天增加1264.81亿元，假日游客人数和花费均创历 史新高。海外方面，美国正式开始征收10%全球关税，白宫正在准备把税率提高到15%的正式命令。美 国白宫就伊朗问题表示，特朗普总统的首选方案永远是外交手段，但必要时也愿意使用致命武力。 指数收涨。现货市场，A股三大指数收红，上证指数涨0.87%收于4117.41点，创业板指涨0.99%。行业 方面，板块指数涨多跌少，石油石化、建筑材料、基础化工、有色金属行业领涨，传媒、计算机、商贸 零售行业跌幅居前。成交小幅放量，当日沪深两 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 股指涨多跌少。市场方面，近一周，全球主要股指涨多跌少，韩国综合指数领涨，涨幅约为5.5%，巴 西、法国、英国股指涨幅居前，恒生科技、日经指数走势偏弱。美股三大指数均收涨，其中纳指涨幅居 前（+1.5%）。 策略 春节期间，海外市场存在贸易与地缘政治方面的扰动，但整体较为平淡，预计对我国股指的影响有限， 国内市场仍将延续"以我为主"的运行逻辑。节后，机构将重启配置节奏，居民资金转移配置带来的增量 资金潜力在年内不容忽视，叠加人民币持续升值的长期支撑，股指有望迎来积极开局。关注两会政策动 向，全年视角下，市场预计将呈现震荡上行的慢牛格局。 风险 若国内政策落地不及预期、海外货币政策超预期、地缘风险升级，股指有下行风险 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 作者： 汪雅航 市场分析 关注两会。宏观方面，我国今年继续推进大规模设备更新，多个领域设备更新项目加快落地。目前， 2026年新一轮设备更新已在31个省（区、市）和新疆生产建设兵团陆续启动，涉及工业、电子信息、节 能降碳环保等约20个领域。海外方面，美国最高法院裁定， ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - Inflation showed a month-on-month increase, with China's CPI rising by 0.2% in January, and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year [2][6] - The PPI also rose by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Year-on-year, PPI decreased by 1.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2][6] - In the U.S., January's non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, with an hourly wage increase of 0.4% month-on-month [2][6] Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% to close at 4131.98 points, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.08%. Sector performance was mixed, with construction materials, non-ferrous metals, and oil and petrochemicals leading gains, while communication, media, and social services sectors saw the largest declines [3][7] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets remained low, with total transactions below 2 trillion yuan [3][7] - In the futures market, the basis for IC and IM contracts increased, with both trading volume and open interest for IH and IM contracts rising [3][7] Group 3: Sector Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector showed signs of recovery, with previous strategies indicating that stabilization in this sector could drive further increases in the CSI 500 Index. Continuous monitoring of this trend is advised [4][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity [1] - The A-share market shows mixed trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising and the ChiNext Index falling, and different industries having different performances [2] - Before the holiday, the market trading volume gradually shrinks. The performance of the CSI 500 index is increasingly correlated with the cyclical sector. Attention should be paid to the trend of the non - ferrous metal industry [3] Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and use various policy tools to maintain liquidity. The adjustment of residents' asset allocation will eventually flow back to the banking system. Overseas, US retail sales in December 2025 were weaker than expected [1] Spot Market Tracking Charts - On February 10, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to 4128.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.02%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.37%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.11%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.18%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.06%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.20%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 2 trillion yuan [2][12] Futures Market Tracking Charts - In the futures market, the current - month contract basis of stock index futures maintains a premium. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures continue to decrease simultaneously. The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decline [2][14] - The basis and inter - period spreads of different contracts of stock index futures have different values and changes [39][43][44]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas liquidity: The nomination of Wash has triggered hawkish expectations, and the divergence in expectations for US monetary policy has intensified, suppressing the risk appetite of the global capital market and causing increased volatility in US stocks and precious metals [11]. - Domestic market: Liquidity is tightening seasonally approaching the Spring Festival, so short - term observation is recommended. In the long - term, the policy support attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the main idea is to buy on dips [11]. - Trading strategy: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term due to the medium - to - low valuation level and long - term discount of IM; hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new round of interest rate cut cycle has started and high - dividend assets are expected to benefit [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important news**: The US plans to launch a $12 billion mineral reserve program; the 2026 No. 1 Central Document promotes the combination of AI and agriculture; Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT - 5.3 Codex are released; the traditional Chinese medicine industry policy is implemented; the central bank conducts an 800 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on February 4, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan [11]. - **Economic and corporate earnings**: In December 2025, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9%, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.13% month - on - month; the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3; M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 growth was 8.5%; social financing increment was 2.2075 trillion yuan; exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year; in the US, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was 4.4% [11]. - **Interest rate and credit environment**: This week, the 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate both declined slightly, the credit spread widened slightly, and liquidity tightened approaching the year - end [11]. - **Trading strategy**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term; hold IF long positions for 6 months [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Stock index performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 1.27% to 4065.58, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.11% to 13906.73, etc. [16]. - **Futures contract performance**: All major futures contracts, such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, declined to varying degrees [17]. 3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic data**: In Q4 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.5%; in January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3; in December 2025, the consumption growth rate was 0.9%, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year; the investment growth rate was - 3.8% [35][38][41]. - **Corporate earnings**: In the Q3 2025 report, the year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 1.24%, and the year - on - year growth rate of net profit was 3.89% [44]. 4. Interest Rate and Credit Environment - **Interest rate**: The 10Y Treasury bond rate and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate trends are presented [48]. - **Credit environment**: In December 2025, M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 growth was 8.2%, and the social financing increment was 2.2075 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan [60]. 5. Capital Flow - **Inflow**: This month, about 110.4 billion shares of new equity - oriented funds were established, and the new margin trading balance in the two markets was about 139.9 billion yuan, with the latest balance reaching 2.664067 trillion yuan, a new high [67][68]. - **Outflow**: This month, major shareholder share sales remained at a relatively high level, and the number of IPO approvals was 10 [72]. 6. Valuation - **P/E ratio (TTM)**: The P/E ratio of the Shanghai 50 is 11.64, the CSI 300 is 14.08, the CSI 500 is 36.92, and the CSI 1000 is 49.18 [77]. - **P/B ratio (LF)**: The P/B ratio of the Shanghai 50 is 1.28, the CSI 300 is 1.48, the CSI 500 is 2.54, and the CSI 1000 is 2.63 [77].

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.181%, UK 4.558%, France 3.445%, Germany 2.842%, Italy 3.468%, Spain 3.221%, Switzerland 0.244%, Greece 3.450%, Japan 2.231%, Brazil 6.180%, China 1.810%, Australia 4.857%, New Zealand 4.535% [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies are: US 3.452%, UK 3.653%, Germany 2.090%, Japan 1.280%, Italy 2.243%, China (1Y yield) 1.318%, Australia 4.286% [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.272, South Africa zar 16.309, Korean won 1463.600, Thai baht 31.802, Malaysian ringgit 3.948 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB are: on - shore RMB 6.938, off - shore RMB 6.941, RMB central parity rate 6.957, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.806 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 6798.400, Dow Jones Industrial Average 48908.720, Nasdaq 22540.590, Mexican stock index 68858.280, UK stock index 10309.220, France CAC 8238.170, Germany DAX 24491.060, Spanish stock index 17746.300, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 53818.040, Hang Seng Index 26885.240, Shanghai Composite Index 4075.917, Taiwan stock index 31801.270, South Korean stock index 5163.570, Indian stock index 8103.879, Thai stock index 1346.230, Malaysian stock index 1731.020, Australian stock index 9154.855, emerging - economy stock index 1507.530 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices are: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3561.790, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 267.919, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 291.120, US high - yield credit - bond index 2927.790, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 413.450, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1846.721 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 4075.92, 4670.42, 3059.01, 3260.28, and 8146.11 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.64%, - 0.60%, - 0.33%, - 1.55%, and - 1.84% [4] - The PE (TTM) values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.08, 11.64, 36.92, 27.25, and 19.00 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.05, - 0.02, - 0.68, - 0.24, and - 0.09 [4] - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 is - 0.51 with a环比 change of 0.13, and that of Germany DAX is 2.42 with a环比 change of 0.04 [4] - The latest fund - flow values for A - shares, the main board, the SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 909.73, - 607.84, (not available), - 237.79, and - 34.01 respectively, and the 5 - day average values are - 447.20, - 349.02, (not available), - 69.06, and - 76.03 [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, the SME board, and ChiNext are 21762.20, 5504.33, 1479.97, 4377.19, and 5522.89 respectively, with环比 changes of - 3047.51, - 855.86, - 218.85, - 414.09, and - 1233.00 [5] - The basis and basis percentage of IF, IH, and IC are - 5.22 (- 0.11%), 2.39 (0.08%), and - 25.91 (- 0.32%) respectively [5] - The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 in treasury - bond futures are 108.32, 105.91, 108.33, and 105.94 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.07%, 0.06%, 0.08%, and 0.04% [5] - The current R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M in the money market are 1.3926%, 1.5522%, and 1.5805% respectively, with daily changes of - 17.00 BP, - 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index rebounded strongly yesterday, but the market trading volume shrank. The market sentiment gradually recovered with the rebound of overseas precious metal prices, and the stock index oscillated upward in the afternoon and closed at the intraday high. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the panic caused by the tightening of overseas liquidity is effectively alleviated. It is expected that the stock index will mainly consolidate after the shrinking - volume rebound. In the long run, in the context of low - interest rates and "asset shortage", the domestic market funds are still relatively abundant, and the stock index's medium - and long - term upward trend is not expected to end as the economy is in the process of bottom - building [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.32 with a - 4.73bp change, DR007 at 1.50 with a 0.69bp change, GC001 at 1.60 with a - 18.00bp change, GC007 at 1.61 with a - 3.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with a - 0.30bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.30 with a - 0.50bp change, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.57 with a - 0.75bp change, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.81 with a - 0.40bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.29 with a 3.00bp change [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The CSI 300 rose 1.18% to 4660.1, the SSE 50 rose 1.05% to 3034.6, the CSI 500 rose 3.11% to 8286.7, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.93% to 8209.1. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2565.8 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 4.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors generally rose, with shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, small metals, glass fiber, engineering machinery, communication equipment, and aerospace sectors surging, while only the banking, insurance, and brewing industries declined [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 rose 1.6% to 4658, IH当月 rose 1.0% to 3033, IC当月 rose 4.3% to 8296, IM当月 rose 3.8% to 8213. IF trading volume was 141,785 with a - 25.9% change, IF open interest was 311,044 with a - 0.9% change, IH trading volume was 63,934 with a - 28.4% change, IH open interest was 114,505 with a - 4.0% change, IC trading volume was 221,446 with a - 23.4% change, IC open interest was 327,164 with a - 0.5% change, IM trading volume was 257,636 with a - 16.1% change, and IM open interest was 405,518 with a - 2.1% change [5]. - **Futures Basis**: IF basis was 1.16% (current - month contract), 1.24% (next - month contract), 2.02% (current - quarter contract), 2.90% (next - quarter contract); IH basis was 1.26% (current - month contract), 0.42% (next - month contract), 0.83% (current - quarter contract), 1.84% (next - quarter contract); IC basis was - 2.36% (current - month contract), 0.46% (next - month contract), 3.14% (current - quarter contract), 3.72% (next - quarter contract); IM basis was - 1.02% (current - month contract), 2.58% (next - month contract), 5.82% (current - quarter contract), 6.33% (next - quarter contract) [7]. Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a bid volume, winning bid volume of 105.5 billion yuan. 402 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan for the day [3]. - This week, 1761.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. From Monday to Friday, 150.5 billion yuan, 402 billion yuan, 377.5 billion yuan, 354 billion yuan, and 477.5 billion yuan will mature respectively. In addition, 700 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Despite intensified external disturbances, A-shares maintain strong resilience due to sufficient domestic liquidity and positive market sentiment. Short - term index fluctuations are expected to be limited, and long - term investors can gradually build long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Driving Forces** - Economic and corporate profit factors are neutral to bearish. In January, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3% from 50.1% due to statistical factors and early Spring Festival returns. The non - manufacturing PMI also declined to 49.4% from 50.2%. The production and new order indices decreased by 1.1 and 1.6 percentage points respectively [3]. - Policy factors are neutral. The selling pace of broad - based ETFs has slowed recently. From January 15th, institutions concentrated on reducing broad - based index ETFs, with a cumulative scale of over 700 billion yuan by January 27th. However, the reduction speed decreased significantly on January 28th and 29th [3]. - Overseas factors are bearish. Trump's nomination of Warsh, a well - known hawk, as the new Fed Chairman has raised concerns about tighter overseas liquidity. On Friday, the US dollar rebounded sharply, and gold and silver prices tumbled [3]. - Liquidity factors are neutral to bullish. As of January 29th, the margin trading balance in A - shares was 2730.42 billion yuan, an increase of 15.94 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 264.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy** - The investment view is to go long opportunistically. Although external disturbances have intensified, the index is likely to remain resilient in the short - term. Long - term investors can gradually build long positions [3]. - The trading strategy is to go long opportunistically, with attention to overseas geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index and Futures Weekly Returns** - Last week, the CSI 300 rose 0.08% to 4706.3, the SSE 50 rose 1.13% to 3066.5, the CSI 500 fell 2.56% to 8370.5, and the CSI 1000 fell 2.55% to 8254.9 [5]. - For futures contracts, the IF main contract was flat, the IH main contract rose 3.60%, the IC main contract rose 8.49%, and the IM main contract rose 7.66% [6]. - **Industry Index Market Review** - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, the top - performing sectors last week were communication (5.8%), non - ferrous metals (3.4%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (1.8%), food and beverage (1.6%), and non - bank finance (1%). The underperforming sectors were national defense and military industry (-7.7%), power equipment (-5.1%), automobile (-5.1%), computer (-4.8%), and comprehensive (-4.7%) [10]. - **Stock Index Futures Volume and Open Interest Tracking** - For the CSI 300 futures, the trading volume was 814,420 lots, a 30.21% increase, and the open interest was 332,644 lots, a 10.98% increase [12]. - For the SSE 50 futures, the trading volume was 378,798 lots, a 43.27% increase, and the open interest was 122,366 lots, a 12.50% increase [12]. - For the CSI 500 futures, the trading volume was 1,061,171 lots, a 22.45% increase, and the open interest was 349,459 lots, a 2.41% increase [12]. - For the CSI 1000 futures, the trading volume was 1,257,463 lots, a 18.37% increase, and the open interest was 408,840 lots, a 3.24% increase [12]. - **Contract Premium and Discount** - As of January 30th, the current - month contract IF2602 had an annualized premium of 1.35%; IH2602 had an annualized premium of 0.97%; IC2602 had an annualized premium of 1.39%; IM2602 had an annualized premium of 5.8% [17]. - The next - month contract IF2603 had an annualized premium of 0.74%; IH2603 had an annualized premium of 1.82%; IC2603 had an annualized discount of 0.72%; IM2603 had an annualized premium of 0.52% [17]. - The current - quarter contract IF2606 had an annualized discount of 0.36%; IH2606 had an annualized premium of 1.15%; IC2606 had an annualized discount of 2.2%; IM2606 had an annualized discount of 3.51% [17]. - The next - quarter contract IF2609 had an annualized discount of 1.72%; IH2609 had an annualized discount of 0.69%; IC2609 had an annualized discount of 3.03%; IM2609 had an annualized discount of 4.94% [17]. - **Cross - Variety Spread Performance** - The spread of CSI 300 - SSE 50 was 1639.8, at the 95.3% historical quantile level; the spread of CSI 1000 - CSI 500 was - 115.7, at the 16.5% historical quantile level [21]. - The ratio of CSI 300/CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 22.5% historical quantile level; the ratio of SSE 50/CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 20% historical quantile level [21]. 3.3 Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro - Liquidity** - This week, the central bank conducted 1761.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 1181 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 580.5 billion yuan. There was also 200 billion yuan in MLF maturing, and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash fixed - deposit operations were carried out [27]. - Next week, 1761.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchases will mature, and 70 billion yuan in 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [27]. - **Market Volume and Margin Trading Balance** - As of January 29th, the margin trading balance in A - shares was 2730.42 billion yuan, an increase of 15.94 billion yuan from the previous week [33]. - As of January 29th, the proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 9.6%, at the 77% quantile level in the past decade [33]. - The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 3280.6 billion yuan, 2921.5 billion yuan, 2992.3 billion yuan, 3259.4 billion yuan, and 2862.4 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 264.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week [33]. - As of January 30th, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.24, at the 49.1% quantile level in the past decade [33]. 3.4 Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **China's Macro - Indicators** - In December 2025, GDP at constant prices was 4.5%, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and real estate investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year [36]. - The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from December 2025. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [45]. - **Corporate Earnings** - For major broad - based indices, the year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company and the return on net assets (TTM) showed different trends in different periods. For example, the CSI 300 had a year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 5.22% in Q3 2025, and a return on net assets (TTM) of 9.93% [50]. - For Shenwan primary industry indices, the profitability and return on net assets (TTM) also varied. For instance, the non - bank finance industry had a year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 38.65% in Q3 2025, and a return on net assets (TTM) of 12.94% [51]. 3.5 Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Drivers - **Recent Macro - Policy Trends** - The government has proposed to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand, promoting innovation, and stabilizing the real estate market [55]. - Policies such as optimizing housing purchase restrictions, increasing consumer subsidies, and supporting equipment updates have been introduced to boost the economy [55][57]. 3.6 Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Indicators** - In December 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 47.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points [68]. - The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January 2026 was 56.4, an increase of 3.5 from the previous value [68]. - The seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate in December 2025 was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls (seasonally - adjusted) was 50,000 [68]. - **Trump Team's Actions** - Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, including increasing tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, which have led to trade frictions and counter - measures [74][76]. 3.7 Stock Index Influence Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation Levels** - As of January 23, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.1 times, 11.5 times, 38.9 times, and 51.5 times respectively, at the 79%, 78.4%, 79.8%, and 76.1% quantile levels since October 2014 [83]. - **Sector Profitability and Valuation Levels** - Different sectors have different price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, and their historical quantile levels. For example, the bank sector had a price - to - earnings ratio of 6.3, at the 44% historical quantile level in the past decade, and a price - to - book ratio of 0.5, at the 26% historical quantile level [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index will decline while bonds will rebound. Stock index futures will see a decline in trading volume below 3 trillion, and the stock market will experience an oscillating decline. For treasury bond futures, due to sufficient monetary liquidity and a decline in domestic market interest rates, long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [122][124] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Shanghai 50 and CSI 300**: These indices are oscillating at high levels [9] - **CSI 500 and 10 - year Treasury Bonds**: The CSI 500 has fallen from high levels, and treasury bond futures have rebounded slightly [15][16] 3.2 Market Momentum Analysis - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have all increased [20][23] - **Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance exceeds 2.5 trillion [27] - **Turnover Rate**: The turnover rates of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 are stable, while those of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have significantly declined [30] - **CSI 300 Sector**: The sectors are relatively consistent. The ALPHA of the energy, materials, and telecommunications sectors is positive, while that of the industrial, optional, consumer, financial, pharmaceutical, and public sectors is negative throughout the cycle [36][39] - **Newly - Listed Companies**: In December, the number of listed companies increased by a net of 13 [47] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Monetary Market Indicators** - **Treasury Bond IRR**: The quarterly IRR of 10 - year treasury bond futures has significantly declined, while that of 5 - year treasury bond futures is stable [77][80] - **Inter - bank Repurchase Rate**: The inter - bank repurchase weighted interest rate has slightly declined [84] - **Shibor**: The short - term Shibor has slightly declined [89] - **Economic Indicators** - **CPI - PPI**: In December, the CPI was 0.8%, showing a slight rebound, and the PPI growth rate reached - 1.9% [93] - **PMI**: In December, the PMI fell to 50.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2, indicating weak economic recovery [98] - **Consumption**: In December, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, and consumer data declined. However, consumer confidence is trending upwards [104][108] - **Monetary Supply**: In December, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.5%, and the growth of credit accelerated. M1 was 3.8%. The newly - added RMB loans were 910 billion [111][115] 3.4 Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume of the stock market will shrink below 3 trillion. Policy adjustments and regulatory actions will lead to an oscillating decline in the stock index [124] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to sufficient monetary liquidity and a decline in domestic market interest rates, the 10 - year treasury bond yield has fallen to around 1.8090%. Long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [124]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic macro news remains calm, and the regulatory level focuses on "cooling down" the market to guide the stock index to show a "slow bull" pattern [6]. - The market trading volume stays above the high level of 2.5 trillion, indicating strong trading activity and liquidity - driven force [6]. - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic macro - level may be in a relatively calm period, and the market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. It is expected that the short - term shock adjustment space of the stock index is limited, and it will mainly show a relatively strong shock before the festival [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.37 with a -0.02bp change, DR007 at 1.55 with a -3.50bp change, GC001 at 1.48 with a 12.00bp change, GC007 at 1.61 with a -1.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with a -0.21bp change, and LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [3]. - The 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.30 with a 0.25bp change, the 5 - year at 1.52 with a -1.25bp change, the 10 - year at 1.82 with a -1.50bp change, and the 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.24 with a 2.00bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 377.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%, which was the same as before [3]. - This week, 1.181 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase in the central bank's open market will expire, and 200 billion yuan of MLF will expire on Monday [4]. Stock Index Futures Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indexes: CSI 300 rose 0.26% to 4718, SSE 50 rose 0.27% to 3061, CSI 500 rose 0.61% to 8601, and CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 8400 [5]. - The closing prices and changes of stock index futures contracts: IF current month rose 0.3% to 4728, IH current month rose 0.2% to 3066, IC current month rose 0.8% to 8623, IM current month rose 0.3% to 8407 [5]. - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures contracts: IF trading volume was 142,902 with a 0.0% change and its position increased by 5.0%; IH trading volume decreased by 6.6% to 63,381 and its position increased by 3.4%; IC trading volume decreased by 19.3% to 170,659 and its position decreased by 0.3%; IM trading volume decreased by 26.0% to 194,080 and its position decreased by 3.9% [5]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.9926 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.9 billion yuan compared with the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with precious metals, jewelry, mining, non - ferrous metals, small metals, and coal industries leading the gains, while photovoltaic equipment, medical devices, medical services, biological products, and aerospace sectors leading the losses [5]. Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation - The premium and discount rates of IF contracts: -3.30% for the current month, -2.25% for the next month, 0.06% for the current quarter, and 1.59% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IH contracts: -2.61% for the current month, -2.16% for the next month, -0.79% for the current quarter, and 0.75% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IC contracts: -4.07% for the current month, -1.73% for the next month, 0.79% for the current quarter, and 2.41% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IM contracts: -1.44% for the current month, 1.87% for the next month, 4.81% for the current quarter, and 6.06% for the next quarter [7].