股票长期投资
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[9月14日]美股指数估值数据(全球股票市场大涨;海外市场还有哪些低估品种?)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-09-14 14:01
Core Viewpoint - The global stock market has shown an overall upward trend, with significant increases in various regions, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Group 1: Global Stock Market Performance - The global stock market indices have generally risen, with the US stock market increasing by 1.5% this week [2] - Non-US markets have experienced even greater gains [3] - The A-share market rose by 2%, while the Hong Kong stock market saw a substantial increase, with the Hang Seng Index up by 3.82% [4] - Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong technology stocks performed even better, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 5.3% [5] - The technology stocks in Hong Kong are currently at normal valuations and not overvalued [6] - The Asia-Pacific stock markets also saw widespread increases, with Japanese and Korean stocks rising over 2% [7][8] - European stock markets had a more modest increase compared to other regions [9] Group 2: Global Bond Market Performance - The global bond market also experienced an overall increase this week [10] - The simultaneous rise in both stocks and bonds is linked to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [11] - The market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut, with some probability of a 50 basis point cut [12] Group 3: Impact of Interest Rate Changes - A decrease in US dollar interest rates is favorable for global assets [13] - The benefits are even more pronounced for non-US dollar markets [14] - Since the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September last year, the Chinese stock market has had the highest growth globally [15] - The previous low valuations of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks contributed to this performance [16] - However, as these markets have risen, the advantage of being undervalued is gradually diminishing [17] - A year ago, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were 50% lower than the global average valuation, but this gap has narrowed to just over 10% recently [18][19] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - There are still undervalued investment opportunities in overseas markets despite the overall rise [20] - In the US market, high-dividend stocks and funds remain undervalued, although there are currently few such funds available in mainland China [21][22] - US dollar bond funds are also undervalued, benefiting directly from the decline in US dollar interest rates [23] - The principle of bond pricing indicates that as interest rates fall, bond values typically rise [24][25] - There are limited US dollar bond fund options available in mainland China, with most having purchase limits [26] - The all-weather investment strategy, popularized by Bridgewater Associates, involves diversifying across global stocks, bonds, and gold to reduce portfolio volatility [27][28] - The all-weather strategy has been implemented in a Chinese version by the company, which can be used for global asset allocation [31][32][34] Group 5: Global Stock Index Investment - The company has created a star rating chart for the global stock market, indicating previous undervaluation phases in 2018, 2020, and 2022 [36] - Following a significant drop in April 2025, the global stock market rebounded and is currently around 2.9 stars [38] - While there are global stock index funds available in overseas markets, there are currently no such funds in mainland China [40] - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across US, UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track the global stock market [41] - However, investment limits for overseas market funds in mainland China are generally low, with a maximum daily purchase limit of 350 yuan [43] Group 6: New Book Release - The company has released a new edition of the book "The Long-Term Investment Secret," which has been a bestseller for 30 years [46] - The latest edition includes updated data and new chapters, emphasizing that stocks are the best long-term investment vehicle [49] - The book provides insights into the long-term returns of various asset classes, reinforcing the importance of stock allocation in family assets [50]