文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 1. 本周迎来元旦假期。 A股没有开盘。 不过在美股场内有追踪A股指数的ETF，周五也普遍上涨。 美股场内的沪深300ETF，周五上涨1.43%。 周一到周三，全球股票市场下跌。 周四元旦假期。 周五A股放假，不过美股、港股等有交易。 周五全球股票市场普遍上涨。 全球股票指数上涨0.74%。 港股周一到周三微跌，不过周五港股大幅上涨，迎来2026年开门红。 恒生指数上涨2.76%，恒生科技指数上涨4%。 美股中概股上涨更多一些，上涨4.64%，近期人民币相对美元升值，以美元计价的人民币资产涨幅会更高一些。 代表海外投资者认为A股周五也应该上涨这个幅度。 不过具体涨幅还要看元旦后A股的实际表现了。 2. 内地投资港股的基金，周五放假，所以基金净值没有更新。 不过周五的收益也没有丢失。 这部分会体现在周一的基金净值中。 也就是，1月5日周一，港股基金的净值，会同时更新"假期里+周一"的合并涨跌幅。 3. 人民币资产上涨原因，也跟最近人民币汇率强势有 ...

Group 1 - The global stock market rose by 1.4% this week, with A-shares (CSI All Share Index) increasing by 2.78%, recovering most of the declines from November [3][4]. - The Hong Kong stock market saw a slight increase due to holidays on Thursday and Friday, with expectations of a potential rebound upon resuming trading [5][6]. - Recent weeks of market declines were attributed to short-term liquidity tightening, with a recovery expected as liquidity conditions improve [7]. Group 2 - The Chinese yuan has appreciated significantly, with the exchange rate against the US dollar returning to 7.0 [8]. - The cyclical nature of exchange rates is highlighted, indicating that during a US dollar interest rate decrease cycle, the dollar tends to depreciate against other currencies [9][10]. - From 2021 to 2022, the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate hikes led to a 25-30% appreciation of the US dollar against other currencies [12]. - Following the Fed's first interest rate cut in September 2024, the US dollar is expected to continue depreciating, benefiting non-dollar assets [15][19]. Group 3 - The performance of various markets since the Fed's first interest rate cut shows that the S&P 500 index has risen approximately 30%, global non-US stock markets have increased by about 32%, and A-shares and the Hang Seng Index have surged over 50% [16]. - When accounting for the yuan's appreciation against the dollar, A-shares have increased nearly 60% when priced in USD [17]. - The last significant decline in the US dollar's interest rates and exchange rates occurred between 2019 and 2020, coinciding with a bull market for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [18]. Group 4 - If the US dollar continues to decline in interest rates, there is likely further appreciation potential for the yuan, which would also favor A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [19]. - However, the fluctuations in exchange rates are expected to be moderate, with the yuan historically oscillating between the 6.x and 7.x range since 2012 [21]. - Interest and exchange rates exhibit cyclical fluctuations, typically spanning 3-5 years, while stock market bull and bear cycles tend to be longer [23][24]. Group 5 - A global stock market star rating chart indicates that the market was undervalued at 4-5 stars during previous periods in 2018, 2020, and 2022 [30]. - Currently, the global market is around 3.0 stars, which is considered a normal valuation, while 1-2 stars indicate overvaluation [32][33]. Group 6 - There are global stock index funds available in overseas markets, with a total scale exceeding one trillion USD, but such funds are not yet available in mainland China [35]. - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across US, UK, Hong Kong, and A-share index funds to track the global stock market [36]. - Investment in overseas market funds is generally limited to small amounts, with a maximum daily purchase limit of 200 yuan [38]. Group 7 - A new edition of the book "The Intelligent Investor" has been released, which has been influential in the investment field for over 30 years and includes updated data and new chapters [41]. - The book emphasizes that, in the long term, stock assets are the best means of wealth accumulation, suggesting that households should allocate a portion of their assets to stocks [42].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global stock markets, particularly focusing on the valuation of U.S. stocks and the characteristics of bull and bear markets, while also introducing investment opportunities through global index funds. Group 1: Global Stock Market Overview - This week, global stock markets experienced slight fluctuations with minimal movement [1][2][3][4] - The U.S. stock market has seen a slight decline, while non-U.S. markets have shown slight increases [2][3] - A-shares in China also experienced a slight increase, indicating a stable market environment [4] Group 2: Valuation Insights - Despite significant increases in U.S. stock indices over the years, they have rarely reached overvaluation, mostly remaining at normal valuation levels [5][6] - As of October this year, U.S. stocks touched high valuation levels, but have since corrected back to a normal high valuation [7][8] - The growth in earnings over the past two years has helped absorb some of the high valuations in the U.S. stock market [9] Group 3: Bull and Bear Market Characteristics - U.S. stock markets have experienced long bull and bear cycles, with each cycle lasting 15-20 years [12][13][14] - Long bear markets typically occur during economic recessions, as seen in the 1970s and from 2000 to 2010 [15][16] - The current economic environment has not yet entered a recession, and earnings growth remains the primary driver for stock index increases [22][23] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Historical data indicates that significant undervaluation opportunities in global stock indices occurred in 2018, 2020, and 2022 [29] - The article highlights the introduction of a global index investment advisory portfolio that diversifies across various stock markets [34][35] - The portfolio aims to track global stock market performance, although there are current purchase limits for domestic investors [37] Group 5: Book Promotion - A new edition of the book "The Long-Term Investment Guide" has been released, which includes updated data and new chapters [40] - The book emphasizes that stocks are the best long-term investment vehicle, encouraging asset allocation towards equities [41][42]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 1. 这周全球股票市场略微上涨，波动不大。 亚太、欧洲地区股票市场普遍上涨。 A股本周也整体上涨。 有朋友问，最近日元加息预期提升，会对全球市场产生什么影响？ 日元资产，在80年代末出现了泡沫。 当时的日股接近百倍市盈率，日本房地产也是处于巅峰水平，东京一个城市的房地产，可以买下整个美国。 这种策略，可以赚到汇率、利率的双重收益。 甚至巴菲特也做过类似的投资。 巴菲特在2020年日股大跌后，发行了低利率的日元债券，融资成本不到1%。 随后日股出现了长达19年的下跌，从1989年最高点，跌到2008年，下跌超过80%。 在市场下跌过程中，日本央行通过降低利率的方式，来刺激经济。 日元10年期国债收益率，从80年代最高的8.5%上下，一路下降到，2015年的0利率附近。 并在2015-2020年，维持了很长时间的0利率。 这在主流经济体中也是非常少有的。 2. 这就催生出，国际上一种套利投资的方式。 借低利率成本的日元，然后投资其他资产。 因为日元 ...

螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 1. 上周全球股票市场大跌。 原因是美联储降息概率下降，市场短期流动性收紧。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 在上周五的时候，螺丝钉也发文说过，这种流动性收紧带来的市场波动，往往持续时间并不长。 在上周末，出来了一些利好消息，让美联储12月降息的概率提升。 本周全球股票市场大幅上涨。 全球股票指数上涨3.4%。 美股、欧股上涨比较多。 A股港股也整体上涨。 在未来，咱们还是会遇到一些短期流动性收紧带来的市场波动。 不过整体上，美元因为目前利率偏高（还在4%上下），利息支出压力太大。 后面美联储还是要继续降息的。 但具体降息和降息之间，间隔数月到大半年，都很正常。 这个时间可长可短，是人为决定的。 降息与降息之间，也会遇到一些短期的市场波动。 2. 美元降息预期提升，对美债也比较有利。 本周美元债上涨，截止到本周，美债处于5星，但距离4.9星也很接近了。 美元债从去年美联储降息之后，进入上涨行情。 美债全市场指数基金，近一年上涨5.7%。 对债券这种稳健类资产来说，收益率还算不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in global stock markets, the impact of liquidity crises, and the potential investment opportunities arising from market fluctuations. Group 1: Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced a significant decline of nearly 3% from Monday to Thursday, followed by a rebound on Friday, but still ended the week down over 2% [3][4]. - The volatility was more pronounced in the Asia-Pacific and European markets, with A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, and Japanese stocks fluctuating over 4% during the week [5]. - Other asset classes also showed considerable volatility, with gold retreating 7-8% from its peak and commodities like oil experiencing even larger declines [7]. Group 2: Liquidity Crisis - Typically, different asset classes do not move in tandem, but liquidity crises can lead to simultaneous fluctuations across global assets [11]. - Recent concerns about the uncertainty of interest rate cuts in December have heightened fears of a liquidity crisis, especially as the year-end approaches [13][14]. - During liquidity crises, correlations between different asset classes tend to increase, with small-cap stocks, growth stocks, and cryptocurrencies being particularly sensitive to liquidity changes [15]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite the short-term volatility, liquidity crises usually do not last long and tend to resolve within a few weeks [17]. - Positive news regarding potential interest rate cuts in December led to a rebound in global markets on Friday, with some Chinese concept stocks listed in the U.S. also seeing gains [18]. - The article suggests that if global assets become undervalued due to short-term fluctuations, it presents a good investment opportunity [23]. Group 4: Global Stock Index Insights - The article mentions a star rating system for global stock markets, indicating that in previous years like 2018, 2020, and 2022, the markets were rated as undervalued [24]. - Currently, the global stock market is rated around 3.2 stars, indicating a moderate level of valuation [26]. - There are global stock index funds available in overseas markets, but currently, there are no such funds in mainland China. However, a global index advisory portfolio has been introduced to simulate similar effects [28][29]. Group 5: Book Promotion - The article promotes a newly released book titled "The Long-Term Investment Guide," which has gained significant popularity and is noted for its comprehensive insights into stock market investments [34]. - The book emphasizes the importance of including a certain proportion of stock assets in family portfolios for long-term wealth accumulation [35].

Group 1 - The global stock market experienced slight fluctuations this week, with the US market showing a minor decline while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.26% [3][8]. - The European markets, which had seen significant declines in previous weeks, generally rose this week [5]. - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with minor fluctuations [7]. Group 2 - Recent global market volatility is largely due to uncertainty regarding whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in December [9]. - There are concerns about high valuations in some overseas markets, leading to fears of potential valuation corrections [9][10]. - Opportunities for undervalued overseas market investments may arise in the future, suggesting a need for patience [13]. Group 3 - The South Korean stock market has shown strong performance recently, with significant gains in the fourth quarter, surpassing the Hong Kong market's growth for the year [14][15]. - Both the Hong Kong and South Korean markets are sensitive to global liquidity flows due to a relatively small number of domestic investors [16][17]. - The South Korean market has experienced a nearly 40% decline from its 2021 peak and is currently in a low valuation range, with P/E ratios around 10-12 times and P/B ratios below 1 [22][24]. Group 4 - A global stock market star rating chart indicates that the market was undervalued at 4-5 stars during previous downturns in 2018, 2020, and 2022, and is currently around 2.9 stars [33]. - There are no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" has been introduced to simulate similar effects [35][36]. Group 5 - The newly released sixth edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide" has topped sales charts and includes updated data and new chapters, emphasizing that stocks are the best long-term investment for wealth accumulation [41][42]. - The book provides insights into the long-term returns of various asset classes, reinforcing the importance of stock allocation in family assets [42][43].

Group 1 - The global stock market experienced an overall decline this week, with the US market down by 1.59% and other global markets down by 0.58% [3] - The Asia-Pacific region saw significant volatility, particularly with declines in South Korea and Japan [4] - Chinese assets remained relatively strong, with the A-share CSI All Share Index rising by 0.63% for three consecutive weeks [6] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market outperformed the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.29% this week [7] - Chinese assets are currently valued slightly lower than the global market average, providing a degree of protection against potential downturns [8] Group 3 - Market fluctuations this week were primarily driven by uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in December [9] - The Federal Reserve did lower rates in October, but the decision for December remains uncertain [10] - Long-term expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates [11] Group 4 - The US stock market reached a high valuation at the end of October and early November, marking the first instance of overvaluation in the past year [12][13] - Following this, the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices have seen a valuation correction, returning to a normal but slightly elevated level [14][15] Group 5 - Current valuations in the US stock market are not particularly low, but they do not indicate a significant bubble [16] - Historical comparisons show that the Nasdaq's valuation during the 1990s internet bubble exceeded 100 times, whereas it currently hovers around 30 times [17] Group 6 - There are two types of bear markets: one occurring during economic recessions with slow or declining corporate earnings, and another during periods of normal economic growth with short bear markets [18] - The US stock market has experienced long bear markets following the bursting of bubbles, such as the 2000 internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis [19][20] Group 7 - Despite the potential for future economic downturns and long bear markets, the US stock market has shown relatively good earnings growth in recent years, primarily experiencing short bear markets [24] - Current valuations in the US stock market are not low enough to present significant buying opportunities [25] Group 8 - A global stock market star rating chart indicates that the market was undervalued during previous periods in 2018, 2020, and 2022, with current ratings around 3.0 stars, suggesting a relatively low valuation [27] - The global stock index can be accessed through various funds, although there are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China [29] Group 9 - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across US, UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track the global stock market [30] - There are limitations on the purchase amounts for overseas market funds, typically capped at around 100 yuan [32] Group 10 - A new edition of the book "The Long-Term Investment Secret" has been released, which has been influential in the investment field for over 30 years [35] - The book emphasizes that stocks are the best long-term investment vehicle and provides extensive data on asset class returns over the past two centuries [36]

Group 1 - The global stock market rose by 1.5% this week, with significant gains in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly the A-share CSI All Share Index, which surged by 3.3%, and the Hang Seng Index, which increased by 3.6% [3][4]. - European stock markets experienced slight increases, while U.S. stocks also saw overall gains, with the Nasdaq 100 reaching a new high for the year [5][6][7]. - Despite the rise in index points, valuations have not yet reached previous highs, indicating a close proximity to overvaluation [9][10]. Group 2 - The global stock market has largely recovered from the volatility caused by the recent tariff crisis involving Trump, with the main pressure on U.S. dollar assets stemming from the large scale of U.S. national debt and its interest payments [14]. - The potential for lower inflation in the U.S. could facilitate further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, although increased tariffs may lead to higher inflation, complicating the rate cut scenario [15][16]. - The tariff issues have primarily resulted in short-term market fluctuations, which have subsequently provided buying opportunities [19][20]. Group 3 - The U.S. released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, showing a slower-than-expected year-on-year growth rate, which increases the likelihood of continued declines in U.S. interest rates [21][22]. - Market expectations are rising for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in October, contributing to the recent uptick in global stock markets [23][24]. - A decrease in U.S. interest rates would positively impact global stock market valuations, particularly benefiting non-U.S. markets [26][27]. Group 4 - A global stock market star rating chart indicates that after a significant drop in early April 2025, the market rebounded to a rating of 4.1-4.2 stars, currently hovering around 2.9 stars [31]. - There are global stock index funds available in overseas markets, with substantial assets exceeding one trillion dollars, although such funds are not yet available in mainland China [34]. - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track the global stock market [35]. Group 5 - A new edition of the book "The Long-Term Investment Secret" has been released, which has been a bestseller for 30 years and includes updated data and new chapters [40]. - The book emphasizes that, over the long term, stock assets are the best means of wealth accumulation, suggesting that households should allocate a certain proportion of their assets to stocks [41]. - It also highlights the challenges ordinary investors face in achieving long-term returns from stock investments due to the inherent volatility of stock assets [42].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global stock markets, the impact of tariffs and interest rates, and investment opportunities in gold and dollar-denominated bonds. Group 1: Global Stock Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced minor fluctuations recently, with a slight rebound noted on Friday [2][4]. - Trump's comments on tariffs and the increasing probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have influenced market movements [3][7]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with potential for continued volatility [9]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Gold has shown strong performance since 2022, but its current valuation may not be as attractive as before, leading to increased volatility [11][12]. - Dollar-denominated bonds have seen a rise in valuation since the tariff crisis began in October, with recent performance outpacing that of comparable RMB-denominated bond funds [14][18]. - The article suggests that dollar-denominated bond funds are generally low in valuation and may present good investment opportunities, especially during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle [12][18]. Group 3: Currency and Exchange Rate Risks - Investing in dollar-denominated bond funds in mainland China may expose investors to currency risks, particularly if the dollar depreciates against the yuan [22][23]. - The article highlights that while dollar-denominated bond indices have shown gains of 6-7% in USD terms, the returns in RMB terms are lower, around 3-5% [24][25]. Group 4: Global Stock Index and Investment Strategies - The article presents a star rating system for global stock markets, indicating periods of undervaluation and potential investment opportunities [29]. - Currently, the global stock market is rated around 3.0 stars, suggesting a moderate investment environment [30]. - The article mentions the absence of global stock index funds in mainland China, but suggests that a diversified investment strategy can be achieved through advisory combinations [32][33]. Group 5: New Book Release - A new edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide" has been released, which includes updated data and new chapters, emphasizing the importance of stock assets for long-term wealth accumulation [38][39]. - The book is recognized for its comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and their long-term returns, reinforcing the notion that stocks are the best investment for wealth growth [40].