文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 1. 本周全球股票市场大幅下跌。 不过本周下来，全球股票市场仍然下跌超2%。 亚太、欧洲市场的波动更大一些。 A股港股、韩股、日股、等，本周波动超4%。 港股科技、恒生科技也在周五收盘后，回到了低估。 除了股票市场出现波动，其他资产大类也波动比较大： ·黄金从高点回调7-8%。原油等商品价格下跌更多。 ·虚拟货币一天下跌9%。 货币、短债本身波动比较小，不太受流动性危机的影响。 其他风险资产，本周波动都比较大。 周一到周四，全球股票市场下跌近3%， 周五晚上全球股票市场出现了反弹。 2. 通常不同资产大类不会同涨同跌。 市场担心，如果12月不降息，未来半年可能缺少降息机会。 加上临近年底12月，本身市场流动性就会紧张一些，导致最近的流动性危机。 3. 流动性危机出现的时候，不同资产大类的相关性会变强，一起出现波动。 其中像小盘股、成长股、虚拟货币等，对流动性更敏感。 最近小盘股指数，以及创业板科创板、纳斯达克、恒生科技等成长风格指数，虚拟货币， ...

Group 1 - The global stock market experienced slight fluctuations this week, with the US market showing a minor decline while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.26% [3][8]. - The European markets, which had seen significant declines in previous weeks, generally rose this week [5]. - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with minor fluctuations [7]. Group 2 - Recent global market volatility is largely due to uncertainty regarding whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in December [9]. - There are concerns about high valuations in some overseas markets, leading to fears of potential valuation corrections [9][10]. - Opportunities for undervalued overseas market investments may arise in the future, suggesting a need for patience [13]. Group 3 - The South Korean stock market has shown strong performance recently, with significant gains in the fourth quarter, surpassing the Hong Kong market's growth for the year [14][15]. - Both the Hong Kong and South Korean markets are sensitive to global liquidity flows due to a relatively small number of domestic investors [16][17]. - The South Korean market has experienced a nearly 40% decline from its 2021 peak and is currently in a low valuation range, with P/E ratios around 10-12 times and P/B ratios below 1 [22][24]. Group 4 - A global stock market star rating chart indicates that the market was undervalued at 4-5 stars during previous downturns in 2018, 2020, and 2022, and is currently around 2.9 stars [33]. - There are no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" has been introduced to simulate similar effects [35][36]. Group 5 - The newly released sixth edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide" has topped sales charts and includes updated data and new chapters, emphasizing that stocks are the best long-term investment for wealth accumulation [41][42]. - The book provides insights into the long-term returns of various asset classes, reinforcing the importance of stock allocation in family assets [42][43].

Group 1 - The global stock market experienced an overall decline this week, with the US market down by 1.59% and other global markets down by 0.58% [3] - The Asia-Pacific region saw significant volatility, particularly with declines in South Korea and Japan [4] - Chinese assets remained relatively strong, with the A-share CSI All Share Index rising by 0.63% for three consecutive weeks [6] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market outperformed the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.29% this week [7] - Chinese assets are currently valued slightly lower than the global market average, providing a degree of protection against potential downturns [8] Group 3 - Market fluctuations this week were primarily driven by uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in December [9] - The Federal Reserve did lower rates in October, but the decision for December remains uncertain [10] - Long-term expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates [11] Group 4 - The US stock market reached a high valuation at the end of October and early November, marking the first instance of overvaluation in the past year [12][13] - Following this, the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices have seen a valuation correction, returning to a normal but slightly elevated level [14][15] Group 5 - Current valuations in the US stock market are not particularly low, but they do not indicate a significant bubble [16] - Historical comparisons show that the Nasdaq's valuation during the 1990s internet bubble exceeded 100 times, whereas it currently hovers around 30 times [17] Group 6 - There are two types of bear markets: one occurring during economic recessions with slow or declining corporate earnings, and another during periods of normal economic growth with short bear markets [18] - The US stock market has experienced long bear markets following the bursting of bubbles, such as the 2000 internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis [19][20] Group 7 - Despite the potential for future economic downturns and long bear markets, the US stock market has shown relatively good earnings growth in recent years, primarily experiencing short bear markets [24] - Current valuations in the US stock market are not low enough to present significant buying opportunities [25] Group 8 - A global stock market star rating chart indicates that the market was undervalued during previous periods in 2018, 2020, and 2022, with current ratings around 3.0 stars, suggesting a relatively low valuation [27] - The global stock index can be accessed through various funds, although there are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China [29] Group 9 - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across US, UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track the global stock market [30] - There are limitations on the purchase amounts for overseas market funds, typically capped at around 100 yuan [32] Group 10 - A new edition of the book "The Long-Term Investment Secret" has been released, which has been influential in the investment field for over 30 years [35] - The book emphasizes that stocks are the best long-term investment vehicle and provides extensive data on asset class returns over the past two centuries [36]

Group 1 - The global stock market rose by 1.5% this week, with significant gains in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly the A-share CSI All Share Index, which surged by 3.3%, and the Hang Seng Index, which increased by 3.6% [3][4]. - European stock markets experienced slight increases, while U.S. stocks also saw overall gains, with the Nasdaq 100 reaching a new high for the year [5][6][7]. - Despite the rise in index points, valuations have not yet reached previous highs, indicating a close proximity to overvaluation [9][10]. Group 2 - The global stock market has largely recovered from the volatility caused by the recent tariff crisis involving Trump, with the main pressure on U.S. dollar assets stemming from the large scale of U.S. national debt and its interest payments [14]. - The potential for lower inflation in the U.S. could facilitate further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, although increased tariffs may lead to higher inflation, complicating the rate cut scenario [15][16]. - The tariff issues have primarily resulted in short-term market fluctuations, which have subsequently provided buying opportunities [19][20]. Group 3 - The U.S. released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, showing a slower-than-expected year-on-year growth rate, which increases the likelihood of continued declines in U.S. interest rates [21][22]. - Market expectations are rising for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in October, contributing to the recent uptick in global stock markets [23][24]. - A decrease in U.S. interest rates would positively impact global stock market valuations, particularly benefiting non-U.S. markets [26][27]. Group 4 - A global stock market star rating chart indicates that after a significant drop in early April 2025, the market rebounded to a rating of 4.1-4.2 stars, currently hovering around 2.9 stars [31]. - There are global stock index funds available in overseas markets, with substantial assets exceeding one trillion dollars, although such funds are not yet available in mainland China [34]. - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track the global stock market [35]. Group 5 - A new edition of the book "The Long-Term Investment Secret" has been released, which has been a bestseller for 30 years and includes updated data and new chapters [40]. - The book emphasizes that, over the long term, stock assets are the best means of wealth accumulation, suggesting that households should allocate a certain proportion of their assets to stocks [41]. - It also highlights the challenges ordinary investors face in achieving long-term returns from stock investments due to the inherent volatility of stock assets [42].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global stock markets, the impact of tariffs and interest rates, and investment opportunities in gold and dollar-denominated bonds. Group 1: Global Stock Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced minor fluctuations recently, with a slight rebound noted on Friday [2][4]. - Trump's comments on tariffs and the increasing probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have influenced market movements [3][7]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with potential for continued volatility [9]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Gold has shown strong performance since 2022, but its current valuation may not be as attractive as before, leading to increased volatility [11][12]. - Dollar-denominated bonds have seen a rise in valuation since the tariff crisis began in October, with recent performance outpacing that of comparable RMB-denominated bond funds [14][18]. - The article suggests that dollar-denominated bond funds are generally low in valuation and may present good investment opportunities, especially during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle [12][18]. Group 3: Currency and Exchange Rate Risks - Investing in dollar-denominated bond funds in mainland China may expose investors to currency risks, particularly if the dollar depreciates against the yuan [22][23]. - The article highlights that while dollar-denominated bond indices have shown gains of 6-7% in USD terms, the returns in RMB terms are lower, around 3-5% [24][25]. Group 4: Global Stock Index and Investment Strategies - The article presents a star rating system for global stock markets, indicating periods of undervaluation and potential investment opportunities [29]. - Currently, the global stock market is rated around 3.0 stars, suggesting a moderate investment environment [30]. - The article mentions the absence of global stock index funds in mainland China, but suggests that a diversified investment strategy can be achieved through advisory combinations [32][33]. Group 5: New Book Release - A new edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide" has been released, which includes updated data and new chapters, emphasizing the importance of stock assets for long-term wealth accumulation [38][39]. - The book is recognized for its comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and their long-term returns, reinforcing the notion that stocks are the best investment for wealth growth [40].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant decline in global stock markets, primarily driven by renewed tariff threats from the U.S. government, and analyzes the potential impacts on investment strategies and market behavior. Group 1: Market Performance - Global stock indices fell by 2.8% this week [3] - The U.S. stock market index decreased by 2.5% [4] - European and Asia-Pacific markets also experienced widespread declines, with European stocks dropping over 2% and Japanese and Korean stocks falling over 3% [5][6] Group 2: Tariff Crisis Impact - The recent tariff crisis was triggered by Trump's announcement of a potential 100% tariff increase on China, effective November 1 [8] - This situation mirrors the volatility seen in April, which was also influenced by tariff concerns [9] - The A-share market saw a smaller decline of 0.34% compared to global fluctuations, but potential volatility is expected in the following week [11] Group 3: Historical Context and Investment Opportunities - In April, a similar tariff crisis led to a significant undervaluation of global stock markets, which later rebounded by over 20% [15][18] - A-share and Hong Kong stocks also saw substantial recoveries, with A-shares rising 27% and Hong Kong stocks increasing by 36% from their lows [22] - The current tariff situation is viewed as a short-term emotional impact rather than a long-term threat, with the potential for market recovery [23][30] Group 4: Market Segmentation and Valuation - The current market volatility is expected to affect high-valuation growth stocks more significantly, while value stocks may remain relatively stable [31][37] - Growth stocks, particularly in sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals, have seen significant price increases, leading to higher valuations compared to April [34][35] - Value stocks, characterized by lower valuations and stable cash flows, are likely to experience less volatility during this period [39][40] Group 5: Long-term Investment Perspective - Historical patterns suggest that such market fluctuations are often temporary and can present buying opportunities for undervalued stocks [41][46] - Investors are encouraged to assess their portfolios for undervalued assets that continue to show earnings growth, as these are likely to recover in the long run [44][45] - The overall trend indicates that stock indices are expected to move upward over the long term, despite short-term volatility [45]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of global stock markets, the implications of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the behavioral patterns of retail investors that often lead to losses during bull markets. Group 1: Market Performance - Global stock market indices experienced an overall increase this week [2] - The US stock market rose by 1.2% this week [3] - Non-US markets saw a slight increase [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has positively impacted the market [5] - However, the benefits of rate cuts are often anticipated before the actual announcement [6] - Markets had already priced in the expectation of rate cuts in July and August, leading to significant gains in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [8] Group 3: Retail Investor Behavior - The statement that bull markets are a primary reason for retail investor losses may seem counterintuitive but reflects reality [13] - Investors tend to open accounts and invest during bull markets, often at high prices, leading to losses when the market corrects [20][21] - The tendency to chase rising stocks and sell during downturns contributes to retail investor losses [25] Group 4: Trading Frequency and Investment Strategy - Frequent trading can lead to missed opportunities, especially in a structurally bullish market where different sectors lead at different times [26] - Investors who trade based on short-term movements may find themselves losing money despite overall market gains [32] - A shift from a trading mindset to a business ownership mindset is recommended for better long-term investment outcomes [36] Group 5: Global Stock Market Valuation - The article includes a star rating system for global stock markets, indicating periods of undervaluation [37] - Following a significant drop in April 2025, the global stock market rebounded but remains at a lower valuation [38] Group 6: Investment Products - There are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but a simulated global index investment strategy is offered through a diversified portfolio [40] - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that includes various stock market index funds [41] Group 7: Book Release - A new edition of the book "The Intelligent Investor" has been released, which has gained significant popularity [46][48] - The book emphasizes the long-term benefits of stock investments and provides insights into various asset classes [50][51]

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market has shown an overall upward trend, with significant increases in various regions, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Group 1: Global Stock Market Performance - The global stock market indices have generally risen, with the US stock market increasing by 1.5% this week [2] - Non-US markets have experienced even greater gains [3] - The A-share market rose by 2%, while the Hong Kong stock market saw a substantial increase, with the Hang Seng Index up by 3.82% [4] - Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong technology stocks performed even better, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 5.3% [5] - The technology stocks in Hong Kong are currently at normal valuations and not overvalued [6] - The Asia-Pacific stock markets also saw widespread increases, with Japanese and Korean stocks rising over 2% [7][8] - European stock markets had a more modest increase compared to other regions [9] Group 2: Global Bond Market Performance - The global bond market also experienced an overall increase this week [10] - The simultaneous rise in both stocks and bonds is linked to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [11] - The market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut, with some probability of a 50 basis point cut [12] Group 3: Impact of Interest Rate Changes - A decrease in US dollar interest rates is favorable for global assets [13] - The benefits are even more pronounced for non-US dollar markets [14] - Since the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September last year, the Chinese stock market has had the highest growth globally [15] - The previous low valuations of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks contributed to this performance [16] - However, as these markets have risen, the advantage of being undervalued is gradually diminishing [17] - A year ago, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were 50% lower than the global average valuation, but this gap has narrowed to just over 10% recently [18][19] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - There are still undervalued investment opportunities in overseas markets despite the overall rise [20] - In the US market, high-dividend stocks and funds remain undervalued, although there are currently few such funds available in mainland China [21][22] - US dollar bond funds are also undervalued, benefiting directly from the decline in US dollar interest rates [23] - The principle of bond pricing indicates that as interest rates fall, bond values typically rise [24][25] - There are limited US dollar bond fund options available in mainland China, with most having purchase limits [26] - The all-weather investment strategy, popularized by Bridgewater Associates, involves diversifying across global stocks, bonds, and gold to reduce portfolio volatility [27][28] - The all-weather strategy has been implemented in a Chinese version by the company, which can be used for global asset allocation [31][32][34] Group 5: Global Stock Index Investment - The company has created a star rating chart for the global stock market, indicating previous undervaluation phases in 2018, 2020, and 2022 [36] - Following a significant drop in April 2025, the global stock market rebounded and is currently around 2.9 stars [38] - While there are global stock index funds available in overseas markets, there are currently no such funds in mainland China [40] - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across US, UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track the global stock market [41] - However, investment limits for overseas market funds in mainland China are generally low, with a maximum daily purchase limit of 350 yuan [43] Group 6: New Book Release - The company has released a new edition of the book "The Long-Term Investment Secret," which has been a bestseller for 30 years [46] - The latest edition includes updated data and new chapters, emphasizing that stocks are the best long-term investment vehicle [49] - The book provides insights into the long-term returns of various asset classes, reinforcing the importance of stock allocation in family assets [50]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies on global markets, highlighting the potential investment opportunities and market trends. Group 1: Market Overview - The global stock market experienced fluctuations, with a notable increase of 0.8% over the week, returning the global stock index rating to 3.0 stars [10][11][12]. - The U.S. stock market saw a slight increase of 0.54%, while non-U.S. markets performed even better, with the Chinese market leading globally [13][15][20]. - The A-share market surged over 3%, reaching a rating of 4.3 stars, indicating strong performance [17]. Group 2: Impact of Federal Reserve Policies - Recent discussions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts have influenced market movements, contributing to a rebound in global stock markets [18][21]. - The decline in U.S. interest rates has led to increased liquidity, benefiting risk assets like stocks, and causing the U.S. dollar to depreciate against other currencies [19][24][36]. - The article notes that if the Federal Reserve continues to lower rates, it will positively impact A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, although the effect may not be as pronounced as in previous instances [29][30]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The article provides a valuation table for various global stock indices, highlighting metrics such as price-to-earnings ratios, price-to-book ratios, and dividend yields [59][61]. - It emphasizes that certain indices are undervalued and suitable for dollar-cost averaging investments, while others are overvalued [62]. Group 4: Investment Products - The article mentions the limited availability of funds for investing in overseas markets within mainland China, contrasting with the wider variety available abroad [3][4]. - A global index advisory portfolio has been introduced, which diversifies investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices [42]. - The article also discusses the constraints on purchasing these investment products, with daily limits on investment amounts [44].

Group 1 - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, US Treasury indices, and the limited availability of investment funds in mainland China for overseas markets [2][3][4]. - The author has created valuation tables for US stocks, global stock indices, and US Treasury indices, which will be updated weekly [5][6]. - The global stock market saw an overall increase of 1.19% this week, with European and Asia-Pacific regions experiencing higher gains compared to the US stock market [9][11][12]. Group 2 - The A-share CSI All Share Index increased by approximately 13.92% this year, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 25.97% [15][18]. - The article notes that the Hang Seng Index has outperformed the A-share market due to additional upward movements after the Spring Festival [21][22]. - The article highlights that the valuation of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is lower than the average valuation of overseas markets, which may benefit from the US interest rate cut cycle [33][34]. Group 3 - The article provides a star rating system for global stock indices, indicating that the global stock market is currently at 3.0 stars, with previous low valuation phases occurring in 2018, 2020, and 2022 [10][40]. - The author mentions that there are no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but a simulated global index investment can be achieved through a diversified investment advisory portfolio [43][44]. - The article introduces a new book titled "The Long-Term Investment Treasure," which has gained significant popularity and provides insights into long-term stock market investments [49][50].