Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of global stock markets, the implications of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the behavioral patterns of retail investors that often lead to losses during bull markets. Group 1: Market Performance - Global stock market indices experienced an overall increase this week [2] - The US stock market rose by 1.2% this week [3] - Non-US markets saw a slight increase [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has positively impacted the market [5] - However, the benefits of rate cuts are often anticipated before the actual announcement [6] - Markets had already priced in the expectation of rate cuts in July and August, leading to significant gains in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [8] Group 3: Retail Investor Behavior - The statement that bull markets are a primary reason for retail investor losses may seem counterintuitive but reflects reality [13] - Investors tend to open accounts and invest during bull markets, often at high prices, leading to losses when the market corrects [20][21] - The tendency to chase rising stocks and sell during downturns contributes to retail investor losses [25] Group 4: Trading Frequency and Investment Strategy - Frequent trading can lead to missed opportunities, especially in a structurally bullish market where different sectors lead at different times [26] - Investors who trade based on short-term movements may find themselves losing money despite overall market gains [32] - A shift from a trading mindset to a business ownership mindset is recommended for better long-term investment outcomes [36] Group 5: Global Stock Market Valuation - The article includes a star rating system for global stock markets, indicating periods of undervaluation [37] - Following a significant drop in April 2025, the global stock market rebounded but remains at a lower valuation [38] Group 6: Investment Products - There are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but a simulated global index investment strategy is offered through a diversified portfolio [40] - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that includes various stock market index funds [41] Group 7: Book Release - A new edition of the book "The Intelligent Investor" has been released, which has gained significant popularity [46][48] - The book emphasizes the long-term benefits of stock investments and provides insights into various asset classes [50][51]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 1. 本周全球股票市场指数整体上涨。 美股本周上涨1.5%。 全球非美元市场上涨更多。 A股本周上涨2%。 港股本周大幅上涨，恒生指数上涨3.82%。 中概、港股科技上涨幅度更高，恒生科技本周上涨5.3%。 目前港股科技股在正常估值，还没到高估。 亚太地区股票市场也普遍上涨。 日股韩股上涨也超2%。 欧洲股票市场上涨略少一些。 本周全球债券市场也整体上涨。 全球股债双涨，也跟美联储马上迎来9月降息窗口有关。 目前市场普遍认为，9月美联储降息25BP，有一定概率降息50BP。 2. 之前咱们也提到过： （1）美元利率下降，对全球资产是利好。 （2）对非美元市场利好更多。 例如去年9月美联储首次降息以来，人民币股票市场，涨幅排在全球第一。 也跟A股港股之前估值较低有关。 不过随着A股港股上涨，低估的优势也在逐渐缩小。 去年5.9星的时候，A股港股比全球股票市场平均估值低50%。 最近只差百分之十多点了。 3. 有朋友问，海外股票市场整体上涨，那还有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies on global markets, highlighting the potential investment opportunities and market trends. Group 1: Market Overview - The global stock market experienced fluctuations, with a notable increase of 0.8% over the week, returning the global stock index rating to 3.0 stars [10][11][12]. - The U.S. stock market saw a slight increase of 0.54%, while non-U.S. markets performed even better, with the Chinese market leading globally [13][15][20]. - The A-share market surged over 3%, reaching a rating of 4.3 stars, indicating strong performance [17]. Group 2: Impact of Federal Reserve Policies - Recent discussions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts have influenced market movements, contributing to a rebound in global stock markets [18][21]. - The decline in U.S. interest rates has led to increased liquidity, benefiting risk assets like stocks, and causing the U.S. dollar to depreciate against other currencies [19][24][36]. - The article notes that if the Federal Reserve continues to lower rates, it will positively impact A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, although the effect may not be as pronounced as in previous instances [29][30]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The article provides a valuation table for various global stock indices, highlighting metrics such as price-to-earnings ratios, price-to-book ratios, and dividend yields [59][61]. - It emphasizes that certain indices are undervalued and suitable for dollar-cost averaging investments, while others are overvalued [62]. Group 4: Investment Products - The article mentions the limited availability of funds for investing in overseas markets within mainland China, contrasting with the wider variety available abroad [3][4]. - A global index advisory portfolio has been introduced, which diversifies investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices [42]. - The article also discusses the constraints on purchasing these investment products, with daily limits on investment amounts [44].

Group 1 - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, US Treasury indices, and the limited availability of investment funds in mainland China for overseas markets [2][3][4]. - The author has created valuation tables for US stocks, global stock indices, and US Treasury indices, which will be updated weekly [5][6]. - The global stock market saw an overall increase of 1.19% this week, with European and Asia-Pacific regions experiencing higher gains compared to the US stock market [9][11][12]. Group 2 - The A-share CSI All Share Index increased by approximately 13.92% this year, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 25.97% [15][18]. - The article notes that the Hang Seng Index has outperformed the A-share market due to additional upward movements after the Spring Festival [21][22]. - The article highlights that the valuation of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is lower than the average valuation of overseas markets, which may benefit from the US interest rate cut cycle [33][34]. Group 3 - The article provides a star rating system for global stock indices, indicating that the global stock market is currently at 3.0 stars, with previous low valuation phases occurring in 2018, 2020, and 2022 [10][40]. - The author mentions that there are no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but a simulated global index investment can be achieved through a diversified investment advisory portfolio [43][44]. - The article introduces a new book titled "The Long-Term Investment Treasure," which has gained significant popularity and provides insights into long-term stock market investments [49][50].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the performance of various markets, highlighting investment opportunities and trends in the context of recent economic data and market movements [2][5][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced a significant rebound, with indices rising over 2% [10]. - The global stock index rating returned to 3.0 stars, indicating a moderate investment attractiveness [11]. - European and Asia-Pacific markets showed higher growth rates compared to the U.S. stock market, which had a slightly lower increase [12][13]. - Both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks continued their strong performance this year [14]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Interest Rates - Recent U.S. economic data fell short of expectations, increasing the likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [15]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remains around 4.2-4.3%, creating significant interest payment pressures due to the large scale of U.S. debt [15]. - A decline in U.S. interest rates is expected to positively impact global asset prices, as seen during the last bull market in Hong Kong from 2020 to 2021 [17][18]. Group 3: Valuation Trends - Since the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in September last year, global stock markets have risen approximately 19.4%, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks outperforming with over 40% gains [19][20]. - Despite the recent increases, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks still have lower average valuations compared to global markets [22][23]. - The current price-to-book ratio for A-shares is 1.7, while the average for global markets (excluding U.S. stocks) is around 2.08, indicating a 22% difference [24][25]. - The valuation gap has narrowed from over 50% last year, which was the largest disparity in the past decade [27]. Group 4: Investment Products and Strategies - There is a lack of investment options for overseas markets in mainland China, but a variety of products are available abroad [3][4]. - The company has created a global stock index valuation table and will update it weekly [6][7]. - A global index advisory portfolio has been launched, diversifying investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices [35]. - Current investment limits for overseas market funds in mainland China are generally around 100 yuan, with a maximum daily purchase limit of 350 yuan [37]. Group 5: Book Promotion - The new edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide" has been released, achieving high sales rankings on major platforms [40]. - The book emphasizes that stocks are the best long-term investment vehicle and provides insights into asset class returns over the past two centuries [41].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the potential investment opportunities in overseas markets, particularly focusing on the performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the context of recent economic trends and interest rate changes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The global stock market experienced a slight decline of 0.42% this week, with the global stock index rating returning to around 3.1 stars [5][6]. - Most global stock markets saw a downturn, while Chinese assets remained relatively strong, with the A-share CSI All Share Index rising by 1.54% and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.93%, ranking among the top performers globally [7]. Group 2: Historical Context and Valuation - Since the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in September last year, the global stock index has risen approximately 17%, with Chinese assets performing even better: A-shares up over 35% and the Hang Seng Index up 42% [9][10]. - The decline in U.S. dollar interest rates has positively impacted asset valuations, similar to the previous bull market in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks from 2019 to 2021 [11]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were previously undervalued, with ratings dropping to as low as 5.9 stars, which was 50% below the global average valuation, leading to significant valuation recovery and price increases [12][13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article raises questions about the continued upward potential of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, emphasizing that index funds' performance is influenced by valuation, earnings, and dividends [14][15]. - The valuation for Hong Kong stocks has returned to a range of 4.1-4.5 stars, while A-shares have increased from the previous 5.x stars to around 4.8 stars [17][18]. - Although there are still some undervalued stocks, the number has decreased as prices have risen [19]. - Earnings growth from listed companies is expected to contribute to future returns, with signs of stabilization and recovery in earnings observed in early 2024 [22][24]. Group 4: Investment Products - The article mentions the availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets, which total over a trillion dollars, but notes the lack of such funds in mainland China [27]. - The company has introduced a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-shares to track global stock market performance [29]. - There are limitations on the purchase amounts for overseas investment funds, with a maximum daily purchase of 350 yuan [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices and U.S. Treasury indices, highlighting the limited availability of investment options in mainland China compared to overseas markets [1][2]. Group 1: Global Stock Market Performance - The global stock market saw an increase of approximately 1.4% this week, with the global stock index star rating returning to around 3.1 stars [4][5][6]. - The global stock index has surpassed last year's levels, reaching a historical high [8]. - Despite the historical high, the current valuations are not as elevated as last year, with the market currently at a normal to slightly high valuation level of around 3.1 stars [10][11]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - The relationship between index points and earnings is explained, indicating that index point fluctuations can be viewed as changes in the market capitalization of listed companies [12]. - The profitability of overseas listed companies has been growing, which has helped to absorb some of the valuation increases [12]. - The article notes that there are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but a combination that tracks global stock indices is being offered [13][14]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article mentions that there are numerous global stock index funds available overseas, with a total scale exceeding one trillion U.S. dollars [9][18]. - A "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" has been introduced, which diversifies investments across various stock markets, including U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-shares [20]. - The investment limits for overseas market funds in mainland China are generally low, with a maximum daily purchase limit of 350 yuan [22]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical low valuation phases for the global stock market were identified in 2018, 2020, and 2022, with a recent drop in April 2025 bringing the market back to a low valuation phase [16]. - The article emphasizes that investing during periods when the global stock index is rated between 4-5 stars is ideal for maximizing investment value [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the performance of dividend indices in different markets, highlighting the differences in investment opportunities and risks between domestic and overseas markets. Group 1: Global Stock Market Overview - The global stock market experienced an overall decline this week, with European stocks dropping more than 1% and Asian markets, including Hong Kong stocks, also facing downturns after previous gains [4][5]. - The fluctuations in the global market are primarily attributed to regional conflicts, which have a short-term impact on investor sentiment but are not expected to significantly affect the operations of listed companies [5]. Group 2: Dividend Performance Comparison - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have shown strong dividend performance, while U.S. dividend indices have underperformed compared to the S&P 500 in recent years [6][11]. - The strong performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is linked to the declining interest rates in RMB, making dividend-paying stocks more attractive compared to low-yielding bonds [13]. Group 3: U.S. Dividend Indices - U.S. dividend indices include various categories such as dividend aristocrats and shareholder return indices, which focus on companies with a history of increasing dividends or high share buybacks [8][10]. - The current yield of U.S. dividend indices is around 3-4%, which is less attractive compared to the yields available from U.S. dollar deposits and bonds [16]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - There are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but there are significant opportunities in overseas markets with global stock index funds totaling over a trillion dollars [20]. - The company has introduced a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across multiple stock markets, including U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-shares [22]. Group 5: Valuation Data - The article provides a valuation table for various indices, including P/E ratios, P/B ratios, and dividend yields, indicating which indices are undervalued or overvalued [38][39]. - Indices highlighted as undervalued are suitable for regular investment, while those marked as overvalued should be approached with caution [41].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the performance of various dividend indices, highlighting investment opportunities in overseas markets and the recent trends in Hong Kong dividend indices. Group 1: Market Overview - The global stock market experienced minor fluctuations this week, returning to a rating of 3.2 stars [8] - The European market saw a slight decline, while the Asia-Pacific market remained stable [9][10] - Recent regional conflicts caused some volatility in global markets, but the impact on corporate operations is expected to be minimal and short-lived [11][12][13] Group 2: Hong Kong and A-shares Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a pullback on Thursday and Friday, but overall, it showed a slight increase for the week [14] - A-shares remained stable with little fluctuation [15] - Notably, Hong Kong dividend indices have recently reached historical highs, including the Hong Kong Dividend Index, Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility, and Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Dividend Low Volatility [16][17] Group 3: Dividend Indices Valuation - The article provides a valuation table for various dividend indices, including earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, and dividend yield [20][21][22] - The recent rise in dividend indices is attributed to a decrease in deposit rates, leading to a shift of funds from deposits and bonds into dividend and REIT assets [27] - The valuation of dividend indices remains relatively low, with adjustments made during index rebalancing that typically lower the average price-to-earnings ratio of included stocks [28] Group 4: Global Investment Opportunities - The article mentions the availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets, which have substantial assets under management, but such options are limited in mainland China [32] - The company has introduced a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-shares to track global stock market performance [33] - There are current restrictions on the purchase amounts for overseas market investment funds, with a maximum daily purchase limit of 350 yuan [34] Group 5: New Book Release - The article announces the release of the new edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide," which includes updated data and new chapters, emphasizing the importance of stock assets for long-term wealth accumulation [37][40] - The book has achieved significant sales rankings upon release, indicating strong interest in investment literature [38]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the performance of various markets, highlighting the recent recovery in global stock markets and the implications for investment strategies. Group 1: Global Stock Market Performance - The global stock market index has returned to 3.3 stars, recovering losses from the tariff crisis in early April and surpassing the beginning of the year levels. However, due to earnings updates, the valuation has decreased compared to the end of last year [1]. - The S&P 500 index in the U.S. rose by 1.5% this week, while non-U.S. global markets increased by 1.6%. The Hong Kong stock market led the gains with the Hang Seng Index up by 2.16% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 2.2% [1][2]. - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to a recovery in earnings, with a year-on-year growth of 16% in the first quarter, leading to a dual effect of valuation and earnings improvement [1][3]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - Concerns regarding the impact of U.S. delistings of Chinese concept stocks on index funds are addressed, indicating that past delistings have not significantly affected the performance of these stocks when traded on the Hong Kong market [3][4]. - The article emphasizes that the long-term performance of stocks is ultimately driven by earnings, regardless of the market in which they are listed [2][5]. - The availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets is noted, with a suggestion that domestic investors can simulate similar effects through advisory combinations [9][10]. Group 3: Valuation Tables - A detailed valuation table for various indices is provided, including metrics such as price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, price-to-book (P/B) ratios, dividend yields, and return on equity (ROE) for indices like the Russell 2000 Value and S&P 500 [19][21]. - The table categorizes indices based on their valuation status, with green indicating undervalued, yellow for normal, and red for overvalued, aiding investors in making informed decisions [21][22].