当前，印度肥料市场已进入磷肥需求淡季。2025年12月，印度磷酸二铵销量、进口量双双下滑。随着印 度退出全球市场的操作，该国磷酸二铵库存出现了下滑。 初步数据显示，在销量方面，2025年12月，印度国内磷酸二铵销量降至约95.5万吨，相较于上月140万 吨的季节性峰值大幅回落。2025年全年，印度磷酸二铵总销量累计达903万吨，低于2022—2024年年均 1030万吨的水平。不过，磷酸二铵与重过磷酸钙的总销量同比基本持平，2025年，二者总销量为963万 吨，2024年为969万吨。 产量方面表现相对坚挺，2025年12月，印度磷酸二铵产量为35万吨，高于1—11月月均30万吨的产量水 平。但2025年全年，该国磷酸二铵总产量仅为365万吨，低于2022—2024年年均431万吨的产量水平。 在进口方面，由于2025年末印度港口拥堵情况加剧，且延迟到港的货物将错过本季施肥窗口期，进口商 在2025年底纷纷暂缓市场采购。据阿格斯船期数据，去年12月印度磷酸二铵到港量降至41.4万吨，进口 量较11月的83万吨减少逾一半。尽管如此，2025年全年印度磷酸二铵累计进口量仍达到643万吨，远超 2022—2024年 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nutrien reported adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion in Q2 2025, an increase of 11% from the previous year, while cash provided by operating activities rose by 40% [13] - Capital expenditures in 2025 were 18% lower than the prior year, optimizing capital to sustain operations and targeted growth projects [7] - The company allocated $786 million to dividends and share repurchases in the first half, representing a 49% increase from the prior year [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In potash, adjusted EBITDA reached $630 million in Q2 2025, significantly above the prior year due to record sales volumes and higher offshore net selling prices [13] - Nitrogen operations generated adjusted EBITDA of $667 million in Q2 2025, up from last year due to higher net selling prices and sales volumes [15] - The downstream retail segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.15 billion in Q2 2025, a 2% increase from the prior year [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global fertilizer fundamentals strengthened in 2025, leading to higher benchmark prices across nearly all products [8] - Potash prices increased steadily since the beginning of the year, driven by demand growth testing global operating and supply chain capabilities [9] - Nitrogen markets are supported by supply-side challenges and strong seasonal demand from markets such as India [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Nutrien raised its 2025 full-year guidance for potash sales volumes while maintaining all other operational guidance ranges [4] - The company is focused on investments that strengthen its ability to cost-effectively supply the growing needs of customers, including mine automation projects [6] - Nutrien aims to optimize free cash flow under any market conditions and is committed to disciplined capital allocation to maximize long-term value for shareholders [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a constructive outlook for the business, supported by strong demand, persistent supply disruptions, and project delays in the fertilizer market [21] - The company anticipates stable demand in Brazil and a solid backdrop for business in 2025, with expectations of large nutrient removal supporting the need to replenish soil nutrients [11] - Management noted that while there is pressure on ag commodity prices, strong field activity and engagement from growers are evident [29] Other Important Information - Nutrien completed brownfield debottlenecking efforts at its Redwater and Geismar plants, adding 150,000 tons of annual production capacity [7] - The company is ahead of schedule on its $200 million cost savings target and expects to achieve this goal in 2025 [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on potash supply dynamics and market outlook for 2026 - Management noted strong global demand for potash and raised expectations for the market to 73 to 75 million tons, with confidence in potash prices due to low inventory levels [25][26] Question: Farmer sentiment and fertilizer affordability impact on purchasing - Management acknowledged pressure on ag commodity prices but highlighted strong engagement from growers and anticipated higher crop nutritional purchases in the third quarter [31][36] Question: Confidence in retail demand and Brazil's EBITDA recovery - Management expressed optimism for a decent fall application season, contingent on weather, and indicated that the Brazil improvement plan is on track for positive EBITDA in 2026 [42][45] Question: Potash production expectations and market share strategy - Management confirmed plans to maintain market share and grow with the market, with flexibility to expand production as needed [55][56] Question: Capital allocation priorities and share repurchase program - Management reiterated a consistent focus on generating cash flow, optimizing working capital, and maintaining a disciplined approach to share repurchases and dividends [100][104]