证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 基础化工 量增价跌，Q3 盈利分化 ——基础化工行业 2025Q3 业绩前瞻 投资要点 ❑ 行业整体：量增价跌，Q3 整体盈利下行 根据国家统计局数据，2025 年前 8 月化学原料与制品行业实现营收 5.95 万亿元， 累计同比增长 0.9%，年初至今增速持续回落；实现利润总额 2461 亿元，累计同 比下滑 5.5%；利润率 4.14%，较 24 年同期下降 0.35 个百分点，降至历史低位； 存货 1.02 万亿，同比增长 2.2%，其中产成品存货 0.47 万亿，同比增长 5.1%。地 产下行内需弱复苏，关税冲击外需，化工品量增价跌。截至 25 年 9 月 30 日，中 国化工产品价格指数（CCPI）3958 点，较年初跌 8.1%，同比跌 10%。2025 年 8 月化学原料及制品、化纤、橡胶及塑料 PPI 当月同比分别-5.7%、-9.3%、-2.6%。 行业景气持续下行，投资增速放缓。2025 年 8 月化学原料及制品、化纤固定资产 投资增速分别为-5.2%和 9.3%。 ❑ 化工产品：整体承压，结构分化 产能过剩整体承压下不同子行业分化明显。价格表现好的子行业主 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese chemical industry** and its transition from a "cash-consuming beast" to a "cash-generating tree" due to reduced capital expansion and strong operating cash flow [1][13]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Capital Expansion Trends**: The capital expenditure in the basic chemical industry is decreasing, with the proportion of construction projects to fixed assets declining. This trend is expected to continue, leading to positive free cash flow over the next five years [1][4][5]. - **Cash Flow and Dividends**: The petrochemical sector has turned positive in operating cash flow, with a potential dividend yield exceeding 10% by 2027 for some companies if 70% of cash flow is allocated to dividends [1][9]. - **Cost Advantages**: Chinese chemical companies benefit from lower energy and labor costs compared to European counterparts, which face high production costs and low capacity utilization [1][10]. - **Impact of Anti-Overexpansion Policies**: The anti-overexpansion policies are expected to limit capital expansion but will enhance free cash flow and dividend-paying capacity, improving the investment value of leading companies [1][13][14]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Sector-Specific Insights**: - The chromium salt industry is expected to see strong demand growth due to increased orders from gas turbines and military applications, while supply is constrained by environmental regulations [2][42]. - The coal chemical sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability due to rising global energy prices and improved demand, despite being at historical low price levels [15][18]. - The refrigerant market is projected to grow due to rising demand and supply constraints, particularly for R32 and automotive refrigerants [44]. - **Future Trends**: The report anticipates a significant upward trend for leading companies in the chemical sector, driven by improved profitability and valuation as the industry undergoes capacity clearing [14][41]. Conclusion - The Chinese chemical industry is poised for a recovery phase, with strong cash flow generation and potential for high dividend yields, particularly for leading firms. The anti-overexpansion policies, while restrictive, may ultimately enhance the industry's long-term health and investment attractiveness [1][13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: In the fourth quarter, PX supply - demand is expected to weaken, and PXN may be compressed. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. PX11 can be treated as fluctuating between 6600 - 6900 [2]. - PTA: New device commissioning is postponed, and some device maintenance plans are announced, which boosts PTA in the short - term. In the medium - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price follows raw materials. TA can be treated as fluctuating between 4600 - 4800, and TA1 - 5 can be rolled in reverse arbitrage [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. In September, it is expected to be good, but in the fourth quarter, it will enter the inventory accumulation period. EG can be observed unilaterally, and EG1 - 5 can be in reverse arbitrage [2]. - Short Fiber: The short - term supply - demand is weak. The short - fiber price has support at low levels but weak rebound drive, and the rhythm follows raw materials [2]. - Bottle Chip: In September, supply increases slightly, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. PR follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upside space [2]. Urea Industry The urea futures are running weakly due to increasing supply and lack of demand growth. The short - term futures are expected to run weakly [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: After a rebound, it retraces. The supply may decline due to maintenance, and the demand support is limited. The spot price may stabilize, and the decline space of the futures price is limited [12]. - PVC: After a rebound, it retraces. The supply is expected to decrease due to maintenance, and the demand shows a marginal improvement. The cost provides bottom support. It can be short - sold at high prices [12]. Methanol Industry The mainland supply is at a high level, and the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand is weak, and the port inventory is accumulating. The overall valuation is neutral. The market sways between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations, and the inventory inflection point should be followed [22]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply may be higher than expected, and demand is weak. The short - term price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. BZ2603 follows styrene to fluctuate [26]. - Styrene: Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand support is average. The port inventory is falling but still high. EB10 can be bought at low levels, and the spread between EB11 and BZ11 can be widened at low levels [26]. Crude Oil Industry The overnight oil price fluctuates in a range. The tight refined oil market supports the price, but the macro - economic slowdown restricts the upside. The oil price may fluctuate in a range in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, and look for opportunities to widen the spread on the option side [28]. Polyolefin Industry For PP, the profit is suppressed, there are many unplanned maintenance, and the inventory decreases. For PE, the maintenance is high, the basis rises, and the inventory is reduced. The demand has few new orders, and the market shows "supply decrease and demand increase" [33]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.8%, WTI crude oil (October) decreased by 0.7%, CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.6%, etc. [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, etc. [2]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX decreased, PX spot price (RMB) decreased, and PX basis (11) decreased by 39.0% [2]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2%, TA futures 2601 decreased by 1.0% [2]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.3%, EG futures 2601 decreased by 0.7% [2]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 2.5%, China PX operating rate increased by 4.9%, etc. [2]. Urea Industry - **Fertilizer Market**: The prices of some fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and sulfur decreased slightly, while others remained unchanged [6]. - **Supply - demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.82%, coal - based urea daily output increased by 1.97%, etc. [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price decreased by 2.4%, East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 0.4% [12]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port caustic soda increased by 1.3%, and the export profit increased by 120.2% [12]. - **Supply (Chlor - alkali Operating Rate and Industry Profit)**: PVC overall operating rate increased by 4.2%, and the profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 12.8% [12]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate increased by 1.5%, and Longzhong sample pipe operating rate increased by 12.3% [12]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda Shandong inventory increased by 17.0%, and PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.8% [12]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price decreased by 1.26%, and the spread between MA9 and MA1 changed by - 360.00% [22]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61%, and methanol port inventory increased by 0.48% [22]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.12%, and downstream externally - purchased MTO device operating rate increased by 8.72% [22]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.5%, and pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 4.5% [26]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot price decreased by 1.1%, and EB futures 2510 decreased by 1.1% [26]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 6.9%, and styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 9.9% [26]. - **Industrial Chain Operating Rates**: Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4%, and domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.1% [26]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.75%, WTI decreased by 0.05%, and the spread between Brent M1 and M3 increased by 4.55% [28]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.13%, NYM ULSD increased by 0.02%, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.39% [28]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: US gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.51%, European gasoline crack spread decreased by 2.44% [28]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: L2601 closing price decreased by 0.79%, PP2601 closing price decreased by 0.80% [33]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57%, PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% [33]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.97%, PP device operating rate decreased by 2.5% [33].

Group 1: Fertilizer Import Overview - Ethiopia is the largest fertilizer importer in Africa, expected to purchase approximately 1.97 million tons of nitrogen-phosphorus compound fertilizers and urea in 2024, with over 90% of imports managed by the Ethiopian Agricultural Business Corporation (EABC) [1] - Kenya, as the largest economy in East Africa, will import 834,000 tons of fertilizers in 2024, with nitrogen-phosphorus-potassium (NPK) accounting for 25.17%, diammonium phosphate (DAP) 20.91%, and urea 15.44% [1] - Zambia is projected to import 797,000 tons of fertilizers in 2024, with urea making up the highest share at 36% [2] - Nigeria, the largest economy in West Africa, is expected to import 738,000 tons of fertilizers in 2024, with ammonium sulfate comprising 62.23% of imports [2] - Côte d'Ivoire will import 576,000 tons of fertilizers in 2024, with urea accounting for 31.29% and potassium chloride 23.66% [3] Group 2: Fertilizer Export and Processing - Kenya is expected to export 117,000 tons of fertilizers in 2024, representing 14% of its total imports [1] - Zambia will re-export 109,000 tons of fertilizers, which is 13.7% of its total imports [2] - Côte d'Ivoire's fertilizer re-exports are projected to total 212,000 tons, with most imports processed into compound fertilizers for domestic use or export to neighboring countries [3] Group 3: Key Companies Involved - In Ethiopia, the EABC is the primary entity responsible for fertilizer procurement and distribution [1] - Major companies involved in Kenya's fertilizer import and processing include CFAO Agriculture, MEA, ETG Export Trading Company, and Fertiplant East Africa [1] - In Zambia, key players include the Zambia National Commercial Company (NCZ), FSG Zambia, Zambian Fertilizers, and United Capital Fertilizers [2] - Nigeria's fertilizer industry is dominated by Notore, Indorama, and Dangote [2] - Côte d'Ivoire's fertilizer mixing companies include Agro West Africa, Seap-CI, Sea Invest, Solevo, and Yara [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, suggesting that leading companies with significant scale and cost advantages will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [4][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of the TDI production facility by Mitsui and the successful commissioning of a new ethylene plant by Jilin Petrochemical, indicating positive developments in the industry [3][4]. - It emphasizes the strong competitive position of domestic tire manufacturers and suggests that rare growth stocks in this sector are worth attention [4]. - The report notes a potential recovery in consumer electronics, recommending upstream material companies as beneficiaries of this trend [4]. - It identifies several resilient cyclical industries, such as phosphate and fluorine chemicals, which are expected to see improved market conditions due to supply constraints and rising demand [5][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.35%. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 0.15%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index decreased by 1.36% [14][17]. - The top-performing sub-industries included organic silicon (3.59%), modified plastics (2.46%), and tires (2.22%), while the worst performers were other plastic products (-4.72%) and compound fertilizers (-3.04%) [17][18]. Industry Dynamics - Mitsui's TDI plant is set to resume production after a chlorine leak incident, with expectations of stable product supply [3]. - Jilin Petrochemical's new ethylene plant has successfully started operations, increasing its total ethylene capacity to 1.9 million tons per year [3]. Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are noted for their strong competitive edge, with recommendations to focus on companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery is anticipated, with upstream material companies expected to benefit from increased demand in the panel supply chain [4]. - **Cyclical Industries**: Phosphate and fluorine chemical sectors are highlighted for their resilience, with recommendations for companies like Yuntianhua and Juhua [5][8]. - **Leading Companies**: The report suggests that leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Hubei Yihua with a target price of 17.51 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 14.28 CNY [1]. Core Views - Hubei Yihua is a diversified large-scale phosphate chemical enterprise with a strong presence in fertilizers, chlor-alkali chemicals, fine chemicals, and coal sectors. The company has a complete industrial chain layout and rich resource reserves, having evolved from a local small factory to a major enterprise since its establishment in 1977 [7][13]. - The integration of quality assets has broadened growth paths, particularly through the acquisition of Xinjiang Yihua, which significantly enhances the company's production capacity in urea and chlor-alkali products, thereby strengthening its competitive advantages [18][36]. - The fertilizer segment remains a major revenue contributor, with coal business margins remaining high, indicating a solid profit source for the future [22][36]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hubei Yihua reported revenues of 120.05 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 8.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.99 billion CNY, down 43.92% year-on-year [19][22]. - The company expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.15% for net profit over the next three years, with projected revenues of 169.64 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 238.86 billion CNY in 2025 [2][36]. Product Capacity and Margins - The company has significant production capacities, including 2.16 million tons/year of urea and 1.65 million tons/year of ammonium phosphate. The coal business contributes to high margins, with coal gross margins at 43.90% [16][22]. - The gross margins for various products in the first half of 2025 were as follows: ammonium phosphate at 18.42%, urea at 12.90%, PVC at -8.65%, and coal at 43.90% [22]. Valuation and Estimates - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 for 2025, with a target price of 17.51 CNY based on this valuation [36]. - The report also provides a comparative analysis with other companies in the phosphate chemical industry, indicating an average PE of 12 for 2024 and 13 for 2025 [34].

Core Viewpoint - Hubei Yihua reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in the chemical and fertilizer sectors, while also highlighting strategic asset acquisitions to enhance growth potential [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 12.005 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.98% (adjusted), and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 399 million yuan, down 43.92% (adjusted) [1]. - The fertilizer segment remains a significant contributor, generating 4.794 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 40% of total revenue in H1 2025 [2]. Business Diversification and Asset Acquisition - The company is a diversified large-scale phosphate chemical enterprise with a complete industrial chain covering fertilizers, chlor-alkali chemicals, fine chemicals, and coal [1]. - In December 2024, the company announced a cash acquisition of 100% equity in Yichang Xinfatou for 3.208 billion yuan, increasing its stake in Xinjiang Yihua from 35.60% to 75.00% [2]. - The integration of Xinjiang Yihua's production capacity, including urea and chlor-alkali products, is expected to enhance the company's scale and cost advantages [2]. Product Performance - The gross profit margins for various products in H1 2025 were as follows: phosphate fertilizer (18.42%), urea (12.90%), PVC (-8.65%), other chlor-alkali products (51.69%), and coal (43.90%) [3]. - Despite a decline in product prices, coal remains a significant profit source due to its high gross margin, even after a decrease [3]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading domestic fertilizer enterprise, with strong production capacities in diammonium phosphate and urea, and the acquisition of Xinjiang Yihua is expected to solidify its main products and enhance profitability [3]. - The forecasted compound annual growth rate for net profit attributable to shareholders over the next three years is 28.15%, with a target price of 17.51 yuan based on a 17x PE ratio for 2025, suggesting a "buy" rating [3].

Core Viewpoint - Phosphate rock is a non-renewable mineral resource crucial for China's economy and strategic non-metallic mineral resources, with global reserves of approximately 72 billion tons and confirmed reserves in China of 3.441 billion tons [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Phosphate rock serves as the upstream foundation for the phosphate chemical industry and the development of phosphate fertilizers [1][4]. - The sedimentary type of phosphate rock accounts for 85% of the total in China, with the majority being the main target for development and utilization [2]. - Yunnan Province is one of China's richest phosphate provinces, with a phosphate rock resource reserve of 7.175 billion tons as of the end of 2023, although the proportion of rich ore and the amount available for direct processing are low [6][7]. Group 2: Production and Utilization - The production of phosphate rock in China is projected to reach 11.3528 million tons in 2024, with Yunnan's output increasing to 2.88341 million tons, accounting for 25.4% of the national total [1][4][7]. - The comprehensive utilization rate of phosphate resources in Yunnan has improved significantly due to advancements in low-grade phosphate ore beneficiation technology [7]. Group 3: Industry Development Environment - The Yunnan provincial government has implemented a series of policies to strengthen the management of phosphate resources, ensuring rational development and environmental protection [11]. - The industry is expected to evolve towards "efficient resource utilization, high-end industrial clustering, and green circular development" under government policy guidance [15]. Group 4: Key Enterprises - Major companies in Yunnan's phosphate industry include Yunnan Phosphate Group Co., Ltd., Kunming Chuanjinnuo Chemical Co., Ltd., and Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. [12][13]. - Yuntianhua, one of the largest phosphate mining companies, has phosphate reserves of nearly 800 million tons and a production capacity of 14.5 million tons per year [13]. - Chuanjinnuo focuses on producing feed-grade phosphates and has reported a revenue of 3.207 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth attributed to phosphate sales [14].

Core Viewpoint - Hubei Yihua Chemical Co., Ltd. announced the successful production of its energy-saving upgrade project for phosphate ammonium and sulfur-based compound fertilizer, addressing industry competition and promoting industrial upgrades [1] Group 1: Project Details - The project includes an annual capacity of 400,000 tons of phosphate ammonium and 200,000 tons of sulfur-based compound fertilizer [1] - The first phase of the project has been completed, achieving full production capacity [1] - The project consists of facilities for 800,000 tons/year of sulfuric acid, 350,000 tons/year of wet-process phosphoric acid, 400,000 tons/year of diammonium phosphate, and two 100,000 tons/year sulfur-based compound fertilizer units [1] Group 2: Strategic Objectives - The project aims to resolve the competition issue between Hubei Yihua and Hubei Chuxing Chemical Co., Ltd. [1] - The investment in the project is part of a broader strategy to upgrade the phosphate chemical industry [1] - Hubei Yihua is utilizing the 400,000 tons/year of diammonium phosphate capacity transferred from Chuxing Eco to implement this project [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent research conducted by Qianhe Capital on Hubei Yihua, indicating a decline in profitability due to market demand fluctuations [1] - Hubei Yihua reported a revenue of 12.005 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 8.98%, and a net profit of 399 million yuan, down 43.92% year-on-year [1] - The company is expanding its product scale and market share through measures such as developing international markets and consolidating Xinjiang Yihua as a subsidiary, which has significant coal resources [1] Group 2 - Xinjiang Yihua has a production capacity of 2.16 million tons of urea and 1.65 million tons of ammonium phosphate, contributing to Hubei Yihua's overall capacity [1] - The prices for ammonium phosphate are reported at 800 USD FOB, with a domestic price difference of approximately 1,700 yuan per ton [1] - The expected production launch of the pentose project by the end of the year will see prices around 11,000 yuan per ton for single pentose and approximately 70,000 yuan per ton for double pentose [1]