随着我国新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升行动全面推进，2026年春耕备耕正式进入关键阶段。 国内农资市场即将迎来"金三银四"传统旺季，尿素、复合肥等价格集体上行，化肥板块市场表现活跃。 农资保供稳价事关粮食安全大局，为牢牢守住粮食安全底线，国家发展改革委已于2026年2月印发通 知，联合多部门打响化肥保供稳价"保卫战"，强化信息发布、完善行业监管、鼓励社会监督，筑牢春耕 农资保供稳价防线。 多部门联动筑牢保供稳价防线 进入2026年以来，春耕备货需求逐步释放，叠加成本端支撑，国内化肥市场迎来阶段性上涨行情，二级 市场化肥板块表现强势，多只个股涨停，实体市场化肥品种价格同步走高。 根据国家统计局数据，2026年2月上旬与2025年12月下旬相比，尿素（中小颗粒）价格上涨了3.25%， 复合肥（硫酸钾复合肥，氮磷钾含量45%）价格上涨了12.6%。 山东化肥农药贸易商张瑜向《中国经营报》记者表示："从2025年下半年开始，尿素和硫酸钾复合肥就 进入到价格上行通道，累计涨价近20%。当前化肥市场价格仍在持续上涨，尿素价格呈现每日波动上 行，农药、复合肥等农资产品价格也同步走高。不过由于春耕市场尚处于开工启动阶段，零售贸易端 ...

据生意社、百川盈孚权威数据显示，2026年2月下旬，国内30%品位磷矿石价格站稳1060元/吨，磷酸一铵、磷酸二铵同步走高， 春耕刚需叠加新能源需求，磷资源战略地位持续提升。沪深交易所公开持仓数据显示，有多只股价3.4元左右的小盘磷化工股， 被摩根大通、高盛、摩根士丹利、美林4大国际顶级外资同步重仓，资金信号十分明确。 这些小盘股已经在低位横盘震荡数月，筹码高度锁定，没有大幅炒作，股价与基本面、资金面严重背离。在磷化工全面回暖的背 景下，长期横盘的低价小盘股，往往弹性更强、爆发力更大。这几只被外资抱团的标的，到底藏着怎样的机会，风口是不是真的 要来了？ 一、磷价高位坚挺，政策+需求双轮驱动 生意社最新数据显示，国内磷矿石价格连续两年站稳千元关口，2026年2月均价达到1060元/吨，部分主产区报价更高，供给收 紧、需求回升，价格易涨难跌。美国将磷列为国防关键物资，多国限制出口，全球供给格局收紧，进一步支撑国内磷化工品价 格。 3.4元！4大外资重仓，小盘磷化工风口将至？ 不少散户都在找低价、有主力、有赛道的好标的，既不想追高被套，也不想踩雷绩差股，尤其在磷化工持续走强的当下，大家都 想找到被低估的潜力股。市场 ...

来源：中国能源网 华鑫证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：工业级碳酸锂（四川99.0%min，7.58%），电池级碳酸锂（新疆 99.5%min，7.46%），PVC（CFR东南亚，6.06%），氯化铵（农湿）（华东地区，5.71%），硫酸（双 狮98%，3.85%），磷酸二铵（美国海湾，3.71%），尿素（河南心连心(小颗粒)，3.41%），PA6切片 （华东地区，3.30%），国际汽油（新加坡，3.13%），国际石脑油（新加坡，3.06%）。 判断理由：截至2026-02-23收盘，布伦特原油价格为71.49美元/桶，相较上周+4.14%；WTI原油价格为 66.31美元/桶，相较上周+3.98%。预计2026年国际油价中枢值将维持在65美金。鉴于当前国际局势不确 定性和对油价下降的预期，我们看好具有高股息特征，同时受益原材料降价的中国石化等。 化工产品价格方面，本周部分产品有所反弹，其中本周上涨较多的有：工业级碳酸锂上涨7.58%，电池 级碳酸锂上涨7.46%，PVC上涨6.06%，氯化铵（农湿）上涨5.71%等，但仍有不少产品价格下跌，其中 液氯跌幅-46.95%，硝酸跌幅-8.00%，冰晶石跌幅-6.76 ...

华鑫证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：工业级碳酸锂（四川99.0%min，7.58%），电池级碳酸锂（新疆 99.5%min，7.46%），PVC（CFR东南亚，6.06%），氯化铵（农湿）（华东地区，5.71%），硫酸（双 狮98%，3.85%），磷酸二铵（美国海湾，3.71%），尿素（河南心连心(小颗粒)，3.41%），PA6切片 （华东地区，3.30%），国际汽油（新加坡，3.13%），国际石脑油（新加坡，3.06%）。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 工业级碳酸锂、电池级碳酸锂等涨幅居前，液氯、硝酸等跌幅较大 本周跌幅较大的产品：液化气（长岭炼化，-3.98%），合成氨（江苏新沂，-4.46%），硫磺（高桥石化 出厂价格，-4.61%），锂电池电解液（全国均价/磷酸铁锂电解液，-4.62%），盐酸（华东合成 酸，-4.65%），二氯甲烷（华东地区，-5.16%），天然气（NYMEX天然气(期货)，-5.99%），冰晶石 （河南地区，-6.76%），硝酸（安徽98%，-8.00%），液氯（华东地区，-46.95%）。 本周观点：受地缘局势影响，国际油价震荡运行，建议关注进口替代、纯内需、高股息等方向 判断理 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xin Yang Feng, Sen Qi Lin, Rui Feng New Material, Sinopec, Ju Hua Co., Yang Nong Chemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Tong Kun Co., and Dao Tong Technology [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases for industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 7.58%) and battery-grade lithium carbonate (up 7.46%), while liquid chlorine and nitric acid experienced substantial declines [4][18]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend stocks, particularly in light of fluctuating international oil prices [6][18]. - The chemical industry is currently facing a mixed performance, with some sectors showing resilience while others struggle due to overcapacity and weak demand [21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price trends in key chemical products, noting both significant increases and decreases in various sectors [4][18]. - It recommends focusing on sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and companies with strong domestic demand and import substitution potential [21]. Price Trends - Key products that saw price increases include industrial-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium carbonate, PVC, and ammonium chloride, while products like liquid chlorine and nitric acid saw significant price drops [4][5][18]. - The report indicates that the overall chemical industry remains weak, with performance varying across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [21]. Market Outlook - The report predicts that international oil prices will stabilize around $65 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of price declines [6][18]. - It highlights the potential for certain sectors, such as the lubricants and chemical fertilizers, to benefit from domestic demand and import substitution strategies [21].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued a notice to ensure the supply and price stability of fertilizers for the spring farming of 2026, emphasizing the need for coordination among various departments and stakeholders to secure fertilizer production and distribution [1][2]. Group 1: Ensuring Fertilizer Production and Supply - Provincial development and reform commissions are required to cooperate with industrial and information departments to ensure fertilizer production and coordinate the supply of raw materials [4]. - There is a focus on maintaining stable production of phosphate rock and supporting the construction of phosphogypsum acid production projects [4]. - Domestic sulfur is encouraged to be supplied directly to domestic phosphate fertilizer producers, especially during the critical spring farming period [4]. Group 2: Promoting Smooth Fertilizer Distribution - Provincial development and reform commissions must work with transportation departments to ensure smooth transportation of fertilizers and raw materials [5]. - Emphasis is placed on increasing the sales ratio of fertilizers directly to end-users by key agricultural input distribution companies [5]. - The railway sector is instructed to strictly implement preferential freight rates for agricultural fertilizers and ensure sufficient transport capacity for large-scale inter-regional transfers [5]. Group 3: Strengthening Fertilizer Reserve Management - Provincial development and reform commissions are tasked with overseeing fertilizer reserve management and ensuring that storage enterprises meet their reserve obligations [6]. - The Agricultural Development Bank is expected to enhance financial support for fertilizer reserve operations and related storage facility construction [6][7]. Group 4: Enhancing Import and Export Services - Provincial development and reform commissions should guide local fertilizer production and distribution enterprises to comply with trade regulations [8]. - There is encouragement for key potassium fertilizer import enterprises to optimize their import channels and for companies to increase sulfur imports to stabilize domestic supply [8]. Group 5: Market Regulation and Order Maintenance - Provincial development and reform commissions are urged to support anti-counterfeiting efforts in the fertilizer sector and leverage grassroots organizations to detect and combat illegal activities [9]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is tasked with enhancing regulatory oversight of urea futures and improving delivery systems [9]. Group 6: Promoting Scientific Fertilization - Provincial development and reform commissions should support the dissemination of scientific fertilization knowledge and promote new technologies and products [10]. - Key fertilizer distribution companies are encouraged to provide socialized services for soil testing and intelligent fertilization to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [10].

Investment Rating - The chemical industry is rated as "Weak" and stable for 2025, with expectations of continued low economic prosperity and pressure on profitability [1]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to remain in a low prosperity phase in 2025, with most raw material and product prices at historical lows. The decline in oil, coal, and gas prices has eased raw material cost pressures for chemical companies, but has weakened support for product prices [1][7]. - The overall profitability of the chemical industry is under pressure, with different segments experiencing varying levels of impact. The supply side shows a slowdown in fixed asset investment, while certain petrochemical raw materials like ethylene and propylene are expected to see significant new capacity released [1][4]. - Demand from downstream sectors is expected to remain weak, with notable differences across industries. Real estate demand continues to be sluggish, while automotive production is growing rapidly, and the demand for chemical raw materials in the new energy and new materials sectors remains high [1][27][32]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is categorized into basic chemicals and fine chemicals, with basic chemicals including acids, alkalis, and plastics, while fine chemicals encompass pesticides, fuels, and specialty chemicals [6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of basic chemical raw materials is expected to grow moderately, while demand is anticipated to improve slightly. However, issues of overcapacity and homogenized competition are expected to persist in the short term [4][18]. - Fixed asset investment in the chemical industry has shown a general slowdown, with significant growth in the petrochemical and chemical fiber sectors, while investment in chemical raw materials and products has decreased [20][21]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the overall operating income of sample companies in the chemical sector showed a slight decline, with profitability remaining at historical lows. However, cash flow from operations has improved [2][3]. - The credit quality of the chemical industry has weakened, with a concentration of credit ratings in the AAA and AA+ categories. The financing environment is stable, with a focus on leading companies [3][4]. Price Trends - The CCPI index for chemical products has shown a downward trend, with an average decline of 12.69% compared to 2023. Prices for many chemical products have reached historical lows due to weak demand and oversupply [9][17]. Sector-Specific Insights - In the agricultural chemicals sector, prices for key products like urea and glyphosate have fluctuated, influenced by global price trends and domestic demand [31]. - The new energy sector continues to drive demand for chemical raw materials, with significant growth in lithium battery production and renewable energy installations [32]. Future Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to face challenges in 2026, including continued overcapacity and competition issues. However, the fine chemicals sector is projected to develop towards high-end, green, and intelligent growth [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Indian fertilizer market has entered a low demand season for phosphate fertilizers, with a notable decline in both sales and imports of diammonium phosphate (DAP) in December 2025, leading to a decrease in inventory levels [1][2][3]. Sales Summary - In December 2025, domestic sales of DAP in India fell to approximately 955,000 tons, a significant drop from the seasonal peak of 1.4 million tons in the previous month [1][3]. - Total DAP sales for the year 2025 reached 9.03 million tons, which is below the average annual level of 10.3 million tons from 2022 to 2024 [1][3]. - The combined sales of DAP and single superphosphate remained relatively stable year-on-year, with total sales of 9.63 million tons in 2025 compared to 9.69 million tons in 2024 [1][3]. Production Summary - DAP production in December 2025 was reported at 350,000 tons, which is higher than the average monthly production of 300,000 tons from January to November [1][3]. - However, the total DAP production for the year 2025 was only 3.65 million tons, falling short of the average annual production of 4.31 million tons from 2022 to 2024 [1][3]. Import Summary - Due to increased congestion at Indian ports at the end of 2025, importers delayed market purchases, resulting in a drop in DAP arrivals to 414,000 tons in December, more than halving from 830,000 tons in November [2][3]. - Despite the decline in December, the total DAP import volume for 2025 reached 6.43 million tons, significantly exceeding the average annual import level of 5.91 million tons from 2022 to 2024 [2][3]. Inventory Summary - By the end of December 2025, DAP inventory in India was expected to be slightly below 2 million tons, a decrease from over 2.1 million tons at the end of November [2][4]. - Although domestic sales of DAP were low throughout the year, optimistic import levels allowed for a recovery in inventory from a low point of approximately 1.1 million tons at the end of 2024 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The price monitoring data for December indicates mixed trends in the prices of key commodities compared to November, with some prices rising and others falling, while overall trends show more decreases than increases compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1: Main Food Prices - Grain prices show mixed trends, with wheat averaging 117.67 yuan per 50 kg, down 0.84% month-on-month but up 0.57% year-on-year [2] - Corn prices increased to 105.67 yuan per 50 kg, up 0.64% month-on-month and up 6.02% year-on-year [3] - Pork prices continue to decline, with rib pork averaging 10.50 yuan per 500 g, down 4.55% month-on-month and down 22.22% year-on-year [3] - Vegetable prices have seen a significant increase, with an average price of 4.17 yuan per 500 g, up 14.23% month-on-month and up 14.82% year-on-year [4] - Apple prices decreased to 5.40 yuan per 500 g, down 9.09% month-on-month but up 19.21% year-on-year [5] Group 2: Main Production Material Prices - Agricultural material prices are mixed, with urea at 2.13 yuan per kg, down 0.47% month-on-month, while diammonium phosphate increased by 1.17% [6] - Construction material prices are generally rising, with rebar averaging 3,360.00 yuan per ton, up 1.36% month-on-month [7] - Coal prices remain stable, with mixed trends; mixed coal averaging 501.00 yuan per ton, unchanged month-on-month, and large carbon at 685.00 yuan per ton, up 1.48% month-on-month [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the agrochemical products industry. 2. Core Viewpoints The agrochemical products industry has stable demand supported by the "stable grain supply" policy and the growth of fertilizer and pesticide exports. The supply - side ecosystem is expected to optimize under the "anti - involution" policy, and the industry's profitability is expected to increase. Policy support for food security has strengthened the demand for agrochemical products, and multi - dimensional factors such as domestic consumption and exports have further boosted the demand. Meanwhile, the supply - side reform in the fertilizer and pesticide sectors is promoting industry concentration and high - quality development [1][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Agrochemical Products Industry Overview - **Policy Support and Demand Foundation**: The government has continuously strengthened food security policies. In 2025, the national grain output reached 14297.5 billion jin, an increase of 1.2% year - on - year, providing core support for agrochemical product demand. Domestic food consumption is rigid, and the demand for agrochemical products is driven by multiple factors such as domestic food, feed consumption, and exports. In 2025, from January to November, the export volume of fertilizers increased by 45.52% year - on - year, and the export volume of pesticides also increased significantly [12][13]. - **Supply - side Optimization**: The government and the industry are jointly promoting "anti - involution." The Chinese Pesticide Industry Association launched a three - year "Rectifying Involution" action, and the Chinese Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association issued an initiative to strengthen industry self - discipline. As backward production capacity exits and new capacity is limited, the industry ecosystem is expected to improve [14]. 3.2 Fertilizer Industry - **Industry Chain and Supply - side Reform**: The fertilizer industry includes phosphate fertilizers, nitrogen fertilizers, potassium fertilizers, and compound fertilizers. In recent years, the supply - side reform has advanced, with an increase in fertilizer production but a decrease in application and an improvement in utilization efficiency. In 2025, from January to November, the export volume of fertilizers increased by 45.52% year - on - year, mainly driven by nitrogen fertilizers and compound fertilizers, while the import volume decreased by 1.22% year - on - year [15][20]. - **Phosphate Fertilizer Sub - sector**: The supply of phosphate fertilizers is restricted by phosphate rock resources. In 2025, from January to November, the production of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate decreased year - on - year. The price of phosphate fertilizers has been rising due to the tight balance of phosphate rock supply and demand and strict policies on new phosphate ammonium capacity [32][54]. 3.3 Pesticide Industry - **Industry Structure and Policy - driven Supply Improvement**: Pesticides are used for pest control and plant growth regulation. China is the world's largest producer of pesticide technicals, but there is a problem of over - capacity. In 2025, the Chinese Pesticide Industry Association proposed a three - year "Rectifying Involution" action plan, and new policies such as the revised "Pesticide Registration Management Method" will optimize the industry's competition pattern [61][62]. - **Production, Demand, and Price Trends**: In 2025, from January to November, the growth rate of China's pesticide technical production decreased, but the export volume increased. The global demand for pesticides is rigid, and pesticide prices are expected to recover as over - capacity is alleviated [63][71]. - **Glyphosate Sub - sector**: Glyphosate is the most widely used single - product pesticide globally. Policy restricts new capacity, and the inventory has been decreasing since 2025. The growth of global transgenic crop planting area drives the demand and export of glyphosate, and the price is expected to rise, and the industry's prosperity is expected to increase [75][90]. 3.4 Agrochemical Products Industry Convertible Bonds Basic Situation - **General Information**: As of December 26, 2025, the outstanding balance of convertible bonds in the agrochemical products industry totaled 9.767 billion yuan, accounting for 25.27% of the convertible bond balance in the basic chemical industry. The un - converted ratio of all convertible bonds is over 90%, and the credit ratings range from AA - to AA + [91][94]. - **Trading and Valuation**: The trading volume of Hebang Convertible Bonds is the highest, with an annual trading volume exceeding 24 billion yuan. Since 2025, both the prices of agrochemical convertible bonds and their underlying stocks have risen, and the price increase of underlying stocks is generally stronger than that of convertible bonds. All agrochemical convertible bonds are balanced - type, with Yangfeng Convertible Bonds having a relatively high conversion premium rate of over 40% [95][99]. - **Financial Performance**: From Q1 to Q3 in 2025, the profitability of most issuers of agrochemical convertible bonds has recovered. The operating net cash flow of most issuers has shown continuous inflow or improvement, and the asset - liability ratio at the end of Q3 in 2025 is generally controllable [3][103]. 3.5 Individual Bond Situations - **Xingfa Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Xingfa Group, is a leading enterprise in the phosphate chemical industry, with advantages in phosphate rock mining rights and power costs. It has a complete phosphate chemical industry chain, and its new energy materials business is advancing. In 2025, from Q1 to Q3, its profitability was stable, and the net profit increased year - on - year [108][110]. - **Suli Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Suli Co., Ltd., is engaged in pesticides, flame retardants, and other fine chemical products. In 2025, the demand in the agrochemical market recovered, and the quantity and price of its products such as chlorothalonil and decabromodiphenylethane increased, driving the growth of the company's performance [111][112]. - **Fengshan Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Fengshan Group, is involved in pesticides, new energy electronic chemicals, and fine chemical new materials. In 2025, the company's net profit turned from loss to profit in the first three quarters, and its operating performance improved [113][115]. - **Hebang Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Hebang Biotech, is engaged in mining, chemicals, photovoltaic glass, etc. The company has strengthened its mining layout, and the phosphate rock business has been prosperous. Since the second quarter of 2025, the quantity and price of glyphosate have increased [116][117]. - **Yangfeng Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, New Yangfeng, is a leading enterprise in phosphate compound fertilizers. It has a complete industrial chain layout, and its new fertilizer business is developing. In 2025, from Q1 to Q3, its profitability was stable, and the net profit increased year - on - year [118][119].