今日早参 2025 年 7 月 08 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 仇文竹 债券策略研究组长 座机：13910895671 邮箱：qiuwenzhu@htsc.com 今日热点 固定收益：暑期出行热度修复、黑色系价格上升 7 月第一周，地产方面，成交表现有所分化，上季末冲刺对数据与基数皆有 影响，新房略有修复，二手房整体趋势仍有收敛，房价有待企稳，土地溢价 率等指标低位运行。外需方面，吞吐量同比维持韧性，运价整体下降，特别 是前期涨幅较高的美线运价回落明显。生产端来看，工业方面，货运量有所 上行，但焦化、地炼、化工产业链与汽车开工率较前期有所收敛；建筑业方 面，水泥需求边际上略好于供给，黑色供需偏弱且延续主动去库，沥青开工 率当周有一定修复。消费方面，出行热度修复、暑期预定同比增长，汽车消 费热度延续。价格方面，原油受地缘扰动明显，黑色价格在反内卷政策影响 下上行。 风险提示：1)政策推进不及预期。2)海外经济和地缘政治风险的不确定性。 研报发布日期：2025-07-07 研究员 张继强 SAC:S05705181100 ...

Group 1: Fertilizer Industry - The international and domestic fertilizer price gap is widening due to increased global planting area, particularly in South America and India, while new industry capacity is limited [1] - Geopolitical conflicts have impacted overseas supply and fertilizer transportation, further supported by high industry concentration and domestic leading companies reducing production to maintain prices [1] - The growth in crop planting area driven by food security concerns is expected to continue boosting fertilizer demand, benefiting domestic leading companies with improved profitability [1] Group 2: Healthcare Industry - The healthcare industry is expected to see a clear trend of performance and valuation recovery in the second half of 2025, with increasing differentiation among companies [2] - Emphasis on innovation-driven strategies, internationalization, self-control, and outpatient marketing model reforms will be key focus areas for investment in the second half of the year [2] - The innovative drug sector is anticipated to benefit from strong domestic policy support and overseas achievements, leading to steady growth in the sector [2] Group 3: Coconut Water Market - The terminal market size for coconut water is projected to reach approximately 7 billion yuan in 2024 and nearly 20 billion yuan by 2029, indicating a CAGR of about 20% over the next five years [3] - China's per capita coconut water consumption in 2024 is expected to be 0.08 liters per person, significantly lower than that of the US, UK, and Thailand [3] - Supply chain and distribution channels are identified as core competitive barriers, with companies possessing relevant advantages likely to succeed in the long term [3]

华泰证券研报称，国际—国内肥料价格差呈扩大趋势，主因全球种植面积增长带动需求(尤其南美、印 度等)，但行业新增产能有限(近年来海外企业扩产较少、中国氮、磷肥受内需及扩产缓慢限制，钾肥则 受资源端约束等)，年初以来地缘冲突影响海外供给和肥料运输，叠加行业集中度较高下国内外头部企 业减产挺价等因素进一步助力供给侧。粮食安全背景下作物种植面积增长有望持续带动肥料需求，国内 头部企业有望受益于肥料需求改善及盈利提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Xin Yang Feng, emphasizes the importance of international cooperation and technological innovation in transforming from a traditional fertilizer manufacturer to a leader in both phosphate fertilizers and new energy materials, contributing to sustainable agricultural development and food security [1][2][8]. Group 1: International Cooperation - Xin Yang Feng has established strategic partnerships with international fertilizer giants, such as Germany's Compo Expert and the U.S. company Brandt, to enhance product offerings and technological capabilities [2][3]. - The collaboration with Compo Expert has led to the introduction of DMPP stabilized fertilizers in China, while the partnership with Brandt has resulted in the launch of the "Weibolang" specialty fertilizer series, which has shown significant improvements in crop quality and yield [2][5]. - The company is also working with Israel's chemical group to advance its international strategy, focusing on product, technology, and promotion [3]. Group 2: Research and Development - Xin Yang Feng has developed a comprehensive innovation system that integrates basic research and results transformation, significantly contributing to national food security [4]. - The collaboration with China Agricultural University has resulted in the development of specialized fertilizers, achieving an average yield increase of 8.6% across various crops [4]. - The company has also partnered with the National Agricultural Technology Promotion Service Center to promote new fertilizer technologies, leading to an average yield increase of 8% to 10% for field crops [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Since 2016, Xin Yang Feng has focused on digital transformation and automation in production, implementing numerous projects to enhance efficiency and reduce energy consumption [6][7]. - The company is collaborating with leading agricultural technology firms to develop a smart agriculture platform, which has already shown promising results in wheat production [7]. Group 4: Green Industry Layout - Xin Yang Feng has recognized the opportunities in the new energy revolution and is transitioning from traditional phosphate fertilizers to new energy materials and fine chemicals [8][9]. - The partnerships with companies like Changzhou Lithium Source and GreeenMei have enabled Xin Yang Feng to establish a strong industrial chain in lithium iron phosphate materials, enhancing its market position [8][9]. - This strategic shift not only opens a new growth avenue for the company but also supports its green and sustainable development goals [9].

Group 1 - The Akesu region is focusing on the construction goals of the "Ten Major Industrial Clusters" in the autonomous region, leveraging its resource and location advantages to enhance the industrial chain, supply chain, value chain, innovation chain, and circular chain [1] - Xinjiang Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. is a key enterprise in the region, specializing in the production and sales of water-soluble fertilizers, biological bacterial fertilizers, and compound fertilizers, with a new production line for specialized fertilizers with an annual capacity of 600,000 tons under construction [1][2] - The company has completed the construction and commissioning of a 150,000-ton water-soluble fertilizer production line in just seven months, with plans for additional production lines to be fully operational by October this year [1][2] Group 2 - The project is expected to achieve an annual output value of 1.5 billion yuan and tax revenue of 150 million yuan once fully operational, reflecting the region's efforts to optimize the business environment and attract investment [2] - The water-soluble fertilizer products are scientifically formulated based on crop nutrient needs, featuring rapid solubility, easy absorption, and no residue [2] - The Akesu region has established investment attraction as a top priority, utilizing a diversified investment promotion model to effectively attract significant projects, with 17 investment agreements signed since June, totaling 17.66 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the investment agreement between Xinyangfeng and the government of Huai Shang District marks a significant step in optimizing production capacity and enhancing competitiveness in the Huai River basin, contributing to the high-quality agricultural development in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - Xinyangfeng plans to invest in a 1 million tons/year specialized fertilizer project in the Huai Shang Chemical Park, which includes 400,000 tons/year of high tower compound fertilizer, 400,000 tons/year of urea-based compound fertilizer, 150,000 tons/year of soil testing BB fertilizer, and 50,000 tons/year of high-end water-soluble fertilizer [1][5]. - The project aims to meet the fertilizer demand in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, which is a crucial area for grain and economic crop production in China, addressing the long-standing shortage of high-quality specialized fertilizers [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The location in Bengbu, a key area in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, provides logistical advantages and access to a vast market, with 250 million acres of crop planting area and an annual compound fertilizer demand of approximately 9 million tons in the core areas of Anhui and Jiangsu provinces [3][4]. - The project is part of Xinyangfeng's strategy to enhance its market presence in East China, forming a "Golden Triangle" production capacity matrix with existing bases in Shandong and Jiangxi, allowing for flexible product dispatch and improved market response speed [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Development - The project aligns with the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes the increasing concentration in the phosphate compound fertilizer industry, with Xinyangfeng being a leading player experiencing significant growth in production and sales, particularly in key markets [3][4]. - The initiative will also focus on smart and green production, incorporating advanced production equipment and information management systems to enhance efficiency and product quality while adhering to environmental standards [5].

"一证一品"新政催生新风口 与会专家认为，目前药肥市场正经历从"概念导入"到"规模爆发"的质变阶段。农药新政的实施，将对行 业良性发展起到关键作用。随着政策的落地，行业将迎来前所未有的洗牌，而拥有丰富证件资源、技术 和产品优势的企业，将在新一轮市场博弈中占据绝对优势。 会上，金正大首次推出长效药肥新品牌。"长效药肥意味着'药长效'和'肥长效'，通过内添加工艺和金正 大缓控释肥技术以及德国施诺德技术2.0加持，将大大延长药肥效果。"农业农村部植物营养与新型肥料 创制重点实验室副主任、金正大研究院院长李新柱介绍。 会上，金正大集团联合世界生态农业合作组织、中国农药工业协会等成立药肥一体化推广战略联盟。联 盟倡议，下一步要坚持守正创新，对行业进行全方位的改革，共同营造良性健康发展的药肥产业发展环 境，让药肥新技术造福更多农民，为全球农业绿色转型贡献更多中国智慧与中国方案。 图为药肥一体化推广战略联盟成立仪式。 (企业供图) "'一证一品'的出台对药肥影响最大。"中国农药工业协会助理秘书长段又生表示，当前国内农药登记数 量超过4.8万，药肥登记不足1%，这个"洼地"将成为行业争相奔赴的"蓝海"。 世界生态农业合作组织 ...

General Information - The company is named "CNSIG Anhui Hongsifang Fertilizer Co., Ltd." and was established in accordance with the Company Law of the People's Republic of China [2][4] - The registered capital of the company is RMB 260 million [2][6] - The company is located in Hefei City, Anhui Province, with a postal code of 231602 [2][5] - The company was approved for registration by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on February 2, 2024, and plans to issue 50 million shares to the public [2][3] Corporate Governance - The chairman represents the company in executing its affairs and is the legal representative [3][4] - The company has established a Party Committee to oversee major operational decisions [4][5] - The company is committed to creating value for shareholders, employees, and society through compliance and responsible management [5][6] Share Structure - The company has issued a total of 260 million shares, all of which are ordinary shares [6][21] - The issuance of shares follows principles of openness, fairness, and justice, ensuring equal rights for all shareholders of the same class [6][17] - The company may provide financial assistance for others to acquire its shares, but the total amount cannot exceed 10% of the issued capital [7][8] Shareholder Rights and Responsibilities - Shareholders have the right to receive dividends and participate in decision-making processes [12][34] - Shareholders are obligated to comply with laws and regulations and cannot withdraw their capital except as legally permitted [41][42] - The company must maintain a shareholder register, which serves as proof of share ownership [32][33] Shareholder Meetings - The company holds annual and extraordinary shareholder meetings, with the annual meeting occurring within six months after the end of the fiscal year [20][50] - Shareholder proposals must be submitted in writing and can be made by shareholders holding at least 1% of the shares [58][59] - Decisions at shareholder meetings require a majority or two-thirds majority vote, depending on the nature of the resolution [80][81] Financial Management - The company is required to disclose financial information and ensure transparency in its operations [12][19] - The company must seek shareholder approval for significant financial decisions, including capital increases or decreases and major asset transactions [46][47] - The company is committed to maintaining financial independence and integrity in its operations [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The newly released group standard for "New Fertilizer Naming and Classification Management" aims to address market chaos and promote high-quality development in the new fertilizer industry through scientific classification and standardized naming [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Background - The new fertilizer market is expanding due to the promotion of the "dual carbon" strategy and the need for agricultural green transformation, which enhances fertilizer utilization and ensures food security [1]. - The industry faces two main issues: naming chaos and unclear classification, leading to consumer confusion and regulatory challenges [1]. Group 2: Standard Details - The standard proposes a three-tier classification system: - Level 1: Inorganic fertilizers, organic fertilizers, and microbial fertilizers - Level 2: Nine technology directions centered on efficiency enhancement, including coated slow-release, biochemical inhibition, and biological fermentation - Level 3: Specific product types like slow/controlled release fertilizers and stable fertilizers [2]. - The naming rules prohibit misleading terms and require names to accurately reflect technical features or ingredient components, ensuring scientific integrity and market recognition [2]. Group 3: Expected Impact - The standard is expected to clarify the technology and product system for enterprises, reduce R&D and marketing costs, and enhance consumer trust while minimizing consumption misguidance [2]. - Long-term, the standard may evolve into an industry or even national standard, supporting the fertilizer industry’s transition towards high-end and green development [2].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 385 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.23% [2] - The pesticide revenue was 249 million CNY, with a growth of 2.05%, while fertilizer revenue reached 120 million CNY, growing by 14.28% [2] - The overall gross margin was 46.25%, an increase of 2.42% compared to the previous year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 79 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16% [2] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The main reasons for sustained growth include the expanded influence of comprehensive crop regulation solutions, increased promotional areas, and enhanced marketing efforts for key products [3] - Price recovery in certain pesticides and fertilizers has stimulated consumer demand [3] - Rising grain prices have encouraged farmers to invest more in agricultural inputs [3] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The company holds 142 registration certificates for plant growth regulators, accounting for approximately 8% of the total in China, making it the largest in terms of both registration and sales [3] - The establishment of the Crop Quality Regulation Technology Research Institute in 2017 has bolstered technical support, with over 100 researchers conducting trials nationwide [3] - The company has built a strong brand and distribution network, with over 6,200 dealers and more than 20 logistics warehouses across the country [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Fluctuations in grain prices have a limited impact on the demand for essential agricultural inputs like pesticides and fertilizers [3] - The company plans to strengthen market promotion and expand into untapped markets to further increase revenue [3]