【原料及现货】截至11月11日，杯胶52.26（-0.37）泰铢/千克，胶乳56.30（0）泰铢/千克，云南胶水收 购价13800（0）元/吨，海南民营胶水16000（0）元/吨，青岛保税区泰标1835（-15）美元/吨，泰混 14600（-50）元/吨。 【逻辑】供应方面，海外产区阶段性降雨扰动仍存，但整体旺产期出量预期较强，原料价格有一定下行 空间，国内产区逐步进入减量期，国内原料端价格表现坚挺。需求方面，月内北方部分区域逐步进入淡 季，市场出货表现转淡，多消化库存，随用随采为主，随着市场逐步消化，月中部分陆续少量补货。综 上，短期宏观波动较大，预计胶价震荡为主，后续关注主产区旺产期原料产出情况及宏观方面变化，若 原料上量顺利则有进一步下行空间，若原料上量不畅预计胶价在15000-15500附近运行。 【轮胎开工率及库存】截至11月6日，半钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率为72.89%，环比+0.77个百分点，同 比-7.03个百分点。上周检修企业排产恢复至常规水平，带动整体产能利用率稍有提升，其他多数企业 装置运行稳定。中国全钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率为65.37%，环比+0.03个百分点，同比+6.51个百分 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for 20 rubber futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 12,275.00 yuan, with a current price of 12,235.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.13% [1] - Guosen Futures predicts that rubber prices will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term due to reduced rainfall in Thailand, which still affects tapping operations, and a strong market expectation for supply [2] - Demand from downstream product enterprises is currently in the off-season, with new orders falling short compared to the same period last year, leading to slow inventory depletion of finished tires [2] Group 2 - Ruida Futures forecasts that the NR2508 contract will fluctuate between 11,800 and 12,300 yuan, influenced by increased rainfall in Hainan, which disrupts tapping operations and tightens raw material supply [3] - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has increased more than expected, with general trade inventories showing significant accumulation, while downstream enterprises maintain low procurement levels [3] - Domestic tire enterprises' capacity utilization rates are mixed, with some semi-steel tire companies facing production halts, while full-steel tire operations remain stable, leading to a slight overall increase in capacity utilization [3]