Core Insights - The report from Guotai Junan indicates an increase in consumer sentiment and continued growth in the technology manufacturing sector, with notable trends in various industries [1] Consumer Sector - Domestic demand indicators are improving, with tourism and long-distance travel showing continuous recovery, suggesting a shift towards service-oriented and mass consumer goods consumption despite a contraction in real estate and durable goods [1] - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities saw a year-on-year decline of 25.8%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of 49.8%, 12.6%, and 22.3% respectively; the sales volume in major cities continues to struggle [1] - Durable goods consumption remains under pressure, with average daily retail sales of passenger cars declining year-on-year; in October, domestic sales and exports of air conditioners fell by 21.3% and 19.0% respectively [1][2] Technology & Manufacturing - The technology hardware sector is experiencing marginal growth slowdown, influenced by AI infrastructure investments; however, the overall sentiment remains strong, with October's PCB exports increasing by 23.4% year-on-year, despite a decline in growth rate [3] - Construction demand is still weak, with slight recovery in steel prices due to reduced operating rates of blast furnaces; prices for glass and cement continue to be under pressure [3] - The new energy lithium battery sector remains robust, with a year-on-year increase in power battery sales of 49.9% from January to October, while prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate continue to rise [3] Logistics & Transportation - Long-distance travel demand has improved significantly, with the Baidu migration index showing a month-on-month increase of 3.8% and a year-on-year increase of 18.0%; airline passenger load factors are high, indicating a recovery in business and tourism travel [4] - Freight logistics have seen a month-on-month decline, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volumes decreasing by 2.2% and 0.3% respectively; postal and express delivery volumes also fell significantly post "Double Eleven" [4] - Maritime transport prices for dry bulk and oil have risen sharply, driven by increased demand from iron ore and crude oil production [5]

丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 企业盈利的修复预期还在吗 ——1-10 月工业企业利润点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 10 月工业企业利润同比增速由正转负至-5.5%，若从两年复合增速来看，10 月利润同比增速回 落至-7.8%，已连续三个月负增长，反映出即便剔除基数的扰动，当前利润同比的回落压力也持 续存在。在政策发力较为谨慎的环境下，年内企业经营压力扩散的风险值得进一步关注。而展 望中长期，内需方面，政策留力为明年稳增长做准备，明年两会前后仍有框架性内需政策落地 的可能性，外需方面，美联储降息也有望带动全球工业周期迎来复苏；内外需同时发力下，明 年上半年企业盈利的持续修复的主线仍有较强的逻辑支撑。 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1 [Table_Title 企业盈利的修复预期还在吗 2] ——1-10 月工业企业利润点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 11 月 27 日，国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a differentiated growth pattern in the macroeconomic landscape, with strong performance in emerging technologies, ongoing price increases in TMT hardware and lithium battery materials, and improvements in tourism and travel, while demand for durable goods in real estate remains under pressure [1]. Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities saw a year-on-year decline of 25.8%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of 49.8%, 12.6%, and 22.3% respectively [2]. - Durable goods consumption continues to show signs of overextension, with daily retail sales of passenger cars still declining year-on-year [2]. - Tourism consumption prices in Hainan increased by 4.2% month-on-month, indicating a sustained improvement in tourism [2]. Group 2: Technology & Manufacturing - The TMT hardware sector continues to show strong performance driven by AI infrastructure investment, although growth momentum is slightly slowing [3]. - The construction demand remains weak, with a slight rebound in steel prices due to a decrease in high furnace operating rates [3]. - The lithium battery industry remains robust, with a year-on-year increase in power battery sales of 49.9% from January to October, and prices of hexafluorophosphate lithium and lithium carbonate continue to rise [3]. Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices remain high due to supply constraints and strong heating and electricity demand [3]. - Industrial metal prices have declined amid fluctuations in overseas interest rate expectations [3]. Group 4: Passenger and Freight Logistics - Long-distance travel demand has improved significantly, with the Baidu migration index increasing by 3.8% month-on-month and 18.0% year-on-year [4]. - Freight logistics have seen a decline, with nationwide highway truck traffic and railway freight volume decreasing by 2.2% and 0.3% respectively [4]. - Shipping prices for dry bulk and oil have risen significantly, driven by increased demand from iron ore and crude oil production [4].

格隆汇11月26日｜据乘联分会相关数据，11月1-23日，全国乘用车市场零售138.4万辆，同比去年11月同 期下降11%，较上月同期下降2%，今年以来累计零售2,064万辆，同比增长6%；11月1-23日，全国乘用 车厂商批发169万辆，同比去年11月同期下降8%，较上月同期增长8%，今年以来累计批发2546.4万辆， 同比增长11%。11月1-23日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售84.9万辆，同比去年11月同期增长3%，较上月 同期增长8%，今年以来累计零售1099.8万辆，同比去年11月同期增长20%；11月1-23日，全国乘用车厂 商新能源批发99.5万辆，同比去年11月同期增长4%，较上月同期增长13%，今年以来累计批发1305.1万 辆，同比增长27%。 ...

展望26年，乘用车行业后续政策核心目标或为提升ASP"走出通缩" 乘用车行业ASP变化或是影响政策方向的核心变量，根据国家统计局，21/22/23/24/25M1-10乘用车ASP 同比+0.1/+3.1/-0.1/-8.3/-5.2%。其中10月汽车社零同比增速创年内新低，乘用车行业ASP同比+2.9%。行 业ASP同比增速转正，主要是由于基数和部分地区以旧换新政策补贴方式调整的影响。在以旧换新政策 延续前提下，增换购需求将继续提供底层支撑。假设26年以旧换新政策延续，同时形式不变：(1)报废 补贴：若符合报废条件的新车顺延一年，"符合报废条件的保有量增长"预计将对26年乘用车终端销量贡 献2.1%的弹性;(2)置换补贴："保有量提升"+"保有量车龄增加"下的置换率提升，预计将对26年乘用车终 端销量贡献4.3%的弹性。考虑到：(1)26年需求侧政策发布的逻辑上有前置可能性;(2)政策目标大概率 是"量稳价升"，则在价格未出现显著改善的前提下政策对量的呵护逻辑上会仍有足够韧性，中性场景预 计26年乘用车国内终端销量同比增速为1%。 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，乘用车25年1-10月累计销量为18 ...

11月24日，江淮汽车盘中上涨2.24%，截至13:10，报49.34元/股，成交8.69亿元，换手率0.83%，总市值 1077.59亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1493.39万元，特大单买入5148.70万元，占比5.92%，卖出7282.31万 元，占比8.38%；大单买入2.70亿元，占比31.01%，卖出2.63亿元，占比30.28%。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，江淮汽车十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股5548.50万股，相比上期减少4517.47万股。 江淮汽车今年以来股价涨31.57%，近5个交易日跌0.56%，近20日跌6.54%，近60日跌5.48%。 责任编辑：小浪快报 今年以来江淮汽车已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为6月3日，当日龙虎榜净买入-5.42亿元； 买入总计4.77亿元 ，占总成交额比9.90%；卖出总计10.19亿元 ，占总成交额比21.14%。 截至9月30日，江淮汽车股东户数17.64万，较上期增加24.81%；人均流通股12378股，较上期减少 19.88%。2025年1月-9月，江淮汽车实现营业收入309.3 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: November 24, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The production side's heat continues to decline, with significant decreases in the operating rates of blast furnaces, asphalt, PX, PTA, all-steel tires, and semi-steel tires. - The commercial housing transaction area has marginally rebounded but remains lower than the same period in previous years. The land supply area is on a seasonal upward trend, and a peak in land supply is expected at the end of the month. - Prices have generally declined, including those of crude oil, coking coal, copper, aluminum, zinc, and four key monitored agricultural products: pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits. - In terms of shipping prices, the SCFI has declined for three consecutive weeks, while the BDI has risen significantly. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment sides and the recovery of the real estate market [2][32]. Summary by Directory Production - Steel: The coke oven capacity utilization rate remained flat, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62 pct, and the rebar production increased by 7.96 tons [3][9]. - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate decreased by 4.2 pct [3][9]. - Chemicals: The PX operating rate decreased by 0.36 pct, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 4.25 pct [3][9]. - Automobile Tires: The all-steel tire operating rate decreased by 3.19 pct, and the semi-steel tire operating rate decreased by 2.61 pct [3][10]. Demand - Real Estate: The commercial housing transaction area marginally rebounded, the inventory-to-sales ratio increased, the land supply area grew, and the residential land transaction premium rate decreased [3][15]. - Movie Box Office: It increased by 444 million yuan compared to the previous week [3][15]. - Automobiles: The daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 21,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 27,000 vehicles [3][17]. - Shipping Freight Rates: The SCFI index decreased by 3.98%, the CCFI index increased by 2.63%, and the BDI index increased by 7.06% [3][20]. Prices - Energy: The Brent crude oil price decreased by 2.84% to $62.56 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price decreased by 7.33% to 1,113 yuan per ton [4][22]. - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by -0.63%, -1.77%, and -0.75% respectively, while the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.43% [4][23]. - Agricultural Products: The overall price slightly declined, with the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index decreasing by 0.10%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by -0.83%, -3.46%, -0.70%, and -0.14% respectively compared to the previous week [4][25]. Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: In Beijing, it decreased, while in Shanghai, it increased [4][28]. - Flight Operations: Both domestic and international flight volumes rebounded [4][29]. - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities stabilized and rebounded [4][29]. Summary - The production continues to decline, and prices are generally decreasing. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment sides and the recovery of the real estate market [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward movements in various sectors, including real estate, consumer goods, and infrastructure, while also addressing the implications for investment opportunities and risks. Group 1: Economic Activity - The WEI index has shown a low recovery, reaching 5.43% as of November 16, 2025, up from 4.83% the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in economic activity [2][9] - Since the end of September 2025, the WEI index has generally declined, primarily driven by decreases in infrastructure, domestic demand, and industrial production [9][10] Group 2: Demand Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars have continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 14% as of November 16, 2025, compared to a growth of 5.8% in October [3][15] - In the real estate sector, the decline in residential sales has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 21% in the third week of November across 67 cities [3][13] Group 3: Production Insights - Infrastructure data shows a continued decline, with cement shipment rates at 33.4% in the second week of November, unchanged from the previous week but down from 36.4% year-on-year [3][17] - The operating rate of asphalt plants has also decreased to 25%, down 4.2 percentage points from the previous week and 7.7 percentage points from the same week last year [3][17] Group 4: Trade and Export - Container throughput at Chinese ports has marginally declined, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.4% as of November 16, 2025 [3][27] - The number of vessels departing from major ports has shown a slight rebound but remains lower year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in trade [3][28] Group 5: Price Movements - Domestic and international commodity prices have generally decreased, with the South China index down 1.8% and the RJ/CRB commodity price index down 2.2% [3][42] - Agricultural product prices have also fallen, with pork prices down 0.8% and vegetable prices down 0.7% [3][45] Group 6: Interest Rates and Debt - The issuance of new local government bonds has accelerated, with 224 billion yuan issued in the week of November 24, 2025, including 215.3 billion yuan in special bonds [3][49] - The yields on government bonds have remained stable, with the one-year, five-year, and ten-year yields reported at 1.4008%, 1.5907%, and 1.8166%, respectively [3][64]

Price-Related Summary - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index is at 1,045.84, down 16.48 from last week [3] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.38 per barrel, an increase of $0.37 from last week, while WTI crude oil settled at $59.00 per barrel, up $0.31 [3] - Average wholesale prices for vegetables decreased by ¥0.04 per kg, fruits by ¥0.01 per kg, pork by ¥0.15 per kg, beef by ¥0.25 per kg, and lamb by ¥0.40 per kg [3] Industrial-Related Summary - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index is at 3,456.21, down 66.82 from last week [14] - Glass futures closed at ¥987 per ton, down ¥45 per ton, and coking coal futures closed at ¥1,103 per ton, down ¥89 per ton [14] - The blast furnace operating rate is recorded at 82.17%, a decrease of 2.08% from last week, while the operating rate for petroleum asphalt is at 24.80%, down 4.20% [14] Real Estate Investment Summary - The land transaction area in 100 major cities is approximately 13,497,800 square meters, an increase of 7,013,200 square meters from last week [21] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities is about 1,725,600 square meters, up 330,500 square meters from last week [21] - The second-hand housing listing price index is recorded at 148.80, down 0.26, with the decline rate less than the previous week [21] Transportation and Retail Summary - Subway passenger volumes increased significantly, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing changes of -1.16%, 2.41%, 4.17%, and 1.91% respectively [31] - Box office revenue reached ¥656 million, an increase of ¥444 million from last week [31] - Retail sales of passenger cars totaled 67,312 units, up 21,256 units from last week [31] - The number of domestic flights executed was 86,716, an increase of 822 from last week [31]

证券之星消息，11月20日南向资金增持470.2万股广汽集团（02238.HK）。近5个交易日中，获南向资金 增持的有4天，累计净增持890.6万股。近20个交易日中，获南向资金增持的有15天，累计净增持5420.24 万股。截至目前，南向资金持有广汽集团（02238.HK）16.91亿股，占公司已发行普通股的60.11%。 广州汽车集团股份有限公司是一家主要从事汽车及相关业务的中国公司。该公司的主要业务包括研发、 整车（汽车、摩托车）、零部件、商贸与出行、能源及生态、国际化、投资与金融等业务。该公司通过 两个分部开展其业务。汽车业务及相关贸易分部包括生产及销售各种乘用车、商用车、汽车零部件及相 关贸易。其他分部主要包括生产及销售摩托车、汽车金融保险、其他金融服务及投资业务等。该公司主 要在国内外市场开展其业务。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 | 交易日 | 持股总数(股) | 持股变动(股) | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-20 | 16.91亿 | 47 ...