成文日期：20251009 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:天 研究员：何宁 （从业资格号:F0238922: 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219) 然橡胶期货日报 1 市场概述与行情回顾 1.1 当日市场总体表现 今日（20251009）天然橡胶期货市场整体呈现上涨态势。天然 橡胶主力合约 RU2601 价格收于 15415 元/吨,相比前一交易日,价 格上涨 385 元/吨（1.55%），同时伴随 16.98 万手的交易量，持仓 量则为 14.07 万手,较前一交易日减少 378 手。20 号胶主力合约 NR2511 价格收于 12465 元/吨，相比前一交易日，价格上涨 365 元 /吨(1.84%),同时伴随 6.96 万手的交易量,持仓维持在 3.41 万 手，较前一交易日减少 52手。 丶■7 图片来源:文华财经行情软件 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线: 4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图 1: 天然橡胶 2601 (ru2601) 分时图 1.3 现货市场数据 截止 10 月 9 日国内橡胶现货价格,泰混 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 天然橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：节后市场交投活跃度随资金回归有所提升，加之海外产区降雨天气对原料供应仍存扰 动，成本端支撑延续，胶价重心抬升。但近期产区降雨呈减弱趋势，供应增长预期偏强，市场多 空因素交织，预计短时天然橡胶价格将延续区间震荡格局。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区处于割胶期，云南产区雨水偏多，原料释放缓慢，但受节前期现走 跌拖拽，原料价格表现偏弱；海南产区降水天气有所改善，对割胶作业影响减弱，新胶产出逐渐 恢复，由于节后存在补货交单需求，部分加工厂对原料加价抢收情绪升温。近期青岛港口库存延 续降库，主要集中在一般贸易仓库，节前海外货源有集中到港入库，仓库整体入库量环比增加， 下游轮胎厂前期仓库订单逐步提货到厂，增加一般贸易整体出库量，带动青岛港口库存延续降库。 需求方面，假期期间国内部分轮胎企业存5-8天检修计划，拖拽企业产能利 ...

作为我国北方国际航运核心区和金融创新运营示范区，天津持续推动自贸试验区制度创新与口岸功能提升。东疆 发挥"自贸区+综保区+港口"多重功能政策叠加优势，已先后获批线型低密度聚乙烯、纸浆等期货品种的指定交割 仓库，推出多项贸易便利化举措，为获批成为我市首个20号胶期货保税交割资质区域奠定基础，此次业务顺利落 地，也是东疆产业环境完善和服务体系便利的有力体现。伴随京津冀协同发展深化及制造业升级，橡胶等大宗原 材料的稳定供应尤为重要，此次20号胶期货交割业务的开展，正契合了这一趋势，未来有望吸引更多产业链上下 游企业在天津东疆布局。 未来，东疆将继续深化期货交割品类拓展与服务模式创新，推动更多大宗商品保税交割项目落地。延伸20号胶上 下游产业链，促进汽车轮胎等中间品贸易发展，进一步增强我市港口在国际贸易网络中的资源配置能力。用好综 保区政策和口岸仓储物流载体功能，进一步丰富期货保税交割等"保税+"业态，构建联通国内外两个市场和资源的 平台，为港产城融合发展示范样板区建设提供助力。（津云新闻记者霍艳华 通讯员黄贝宁） 天津北方网讯：近日，由印度尼西亚起运发往天津口岸的第一批1200吨20号胶抵港并存入天津东疆综合保税区 ...

LMC Automotive最新报告显示，2025年8月全球轻型车经季节调整年化销量为9,400万辆/年出头，与上 月基本持平。欧洲汽车制造商协会的数据显示，2025年8月欧盟乘用车市场销量增长5.3%至677,786辆。 9月30日，国内期市能化板块跌幅居前。其中，20号胶期货主力合约报收于12100.00元/吨，大幅下跌 2.18%。 【消息面汇总】 9月30日，上期所20号胶期货仓单42034吨，环比上个交易日减少403吨。 据大阪交易所（OSE）官网9月20日数据，截至2025年9月20日，交易所指定仓库的橡胶（RSS）库存为 3015吨，较截至9月10日的3217吨减少202吨。 机构观点 宁证期货：产区未来增量预期较强，下游轮胎厂节前补库基本完成，市场交投偏弱，叠加临近假期资金 避险情绪升温，预计短时胶价震荡偏弱运行。整体上，橡胶处于低库存，弱需求局面。 华联期货：旺季上量预期和油价弱势为市场带来压力，而且宏观贸易摩擦边际增加。台风威力不及预期 也带来利好出尽。当前价格之下，割胶积极性尚可，胶水对杯胶的溢价处于极低位置暗示供应问题不 大。今年1-8月天然及合成橡胶进口增长19%左右，幅度较大，但8 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market saw the exhaustion of previous positive factors, leading to a continued decline in rubber prices. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, with traders rotating and restocking, and tire factories making necessary restocks. The futures market maintained a weak and volatile pattern, and the spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the downward trend. The enthusiasm of inventory holders to offer prices was average, and downstream restocking was coming to an end, with low inquiry enthusiasm and only moderate restocking at low prices, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere [6]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the weather has improved, and the increasing output in the producing areas, combined with the decline in futures and spot prices, has led to a slight weakening of raw material prices. In Hainan, rainy weather has affected tapping operations, with fresh latex output hindered. Due to poor orders and profit margins, local processing factories have limited enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, but the decline rate has narrowed. The bonded warehouse has continued to reduce inventory, while the general trade warehouse has continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory. Overseas shipments have arrived at the port and been concentrated in storage, with the inbound volume at Qingdao warehouses increasing significantly and exceeding expectations. Previously, the orders of downstream tire factories were gradually shipped out, but the quantity was limited. The outbound volume of the bonded warehouse was better than that of the general trade warehouse, and the general trade warehouse continued to show a slight inventory accumulation state [6]. - In terms of demand, tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels this week to appropriately stock up for post - holiday inventory, with overall operating rates making small adjustments. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance period in advance due to insufficient orders. It is reported that some enterprises plan to start a 5 - 8 - day holiday on September 30 or October 1, which will significantly drag down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises next week [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15150 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12500 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market's previous positive factors were exhausted, with rubber prices falling. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, and the futures market was weakly volatile. The spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the decline. Downstream restocking was ending, and trading was dull [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's raw material prices weakened slightly, while Hainan's fresh latex output was affected by weather. Qingdao Port's inventory continued to decline with a narrowing decline rate. Tire enterprises' operating rates were slightly adjusted, and some small - scale enterprises entered holiday maintenance in advance [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15150 - 15700, and the nr2511 contract between 12150 - 12500 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.42%, while the main contract price of 20 - rubber oscillated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 1.1% [9]. - **Position Analysis**: No detailed analysis content provided. - **Inter - period Spreads**: As of September 26, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 35, and the spread between 20 - rubber 11 - 12 was - 15 [19]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 24, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 155,830 tons, an increase of 920 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,856 tons, an increase of 303 tons from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices**: As of September 24, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of September 24, the 20 - rubber basis was 847 yuan/ton, an increase of 147 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 740 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of September 24, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 55.3 (- 1) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 50.8 (- 0.82) Thai baht/kg. As of September 19, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Prices**: As of September 24, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [42]. - **Imports**: According to customs data, in August 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 520,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.1214 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47% [45]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 461,200 tons (the adjusted previous total inventory was 464,700 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons, a decline of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory was 69,400 tons (the adjusted previous bonded inventory was 73,100 tons), a decline of 5.07%; the general trade inventory was 391,800 tons (the adjusted previous general trade inventory was 391,600 tons), an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [49]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Operating Rates**: As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points. Currently, tire enterprises mostly maintain their previous operating levels [51]. - **Tire Exports**: In August 2025, China's tire exports were 769,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, China's cumulative tire exports were 5.703 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [54]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In August 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% compared with July and a year - on - year increase of about 35% compared with 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market were close to 710,000 vehicles [57]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

Market Closure Announcement - The A-share market will be closed from October 1 (Wednesday) to October 8 (Wednesday), resuming normal operations on October 9 (Thursday) [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect will also be unavailable during the same period, with services resuming on October 9 [2] - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has announced similar closures for the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with specific trading arrangements detailed [4][5] Trading Margin and Price Limit Adjustments - For the 2025 holiday period, various futures contracts will see adjustments in trading margin ratios and price limit ranges, including: - International copper futures: price limit adjusted to 9%, margin for hedging at 10%, and general positions at 11% [5] - Crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures: price limit adjusted to 12%, margin for hedging at 13%, and general positions at 14% [5] - 20 rubber futures: price limit adjusted to 11%, margin for hedging at 12%, and general positions at 13% [5] - Container shipping index futures: price limit adjusted to 20%, with a margin ratio of 22% [5] - After the holiday, these limits and margins will revert to their original levels on the first trading day without a one-sided market [5]

Market Closure Announcement - The major exchanges have announced the market closure schedule for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025, which will be from October 1 (Wednesday) to October 8 (Wednesday), with regular trading resuming on October 9 (Thursday) [2][4][5] - Additionally, weekends on September 28 (Sunday) and October 11 (Saturday) will also be non-trading days [2][4][5] Clearing and Settlement Arrangements - During the holiday period, clearing and settlement will be conducted according to the arrangements of China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited [2][4][5] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Shanghai Stock Exchange have reiterated the importance of participants arranging their work accordingly [3][4][5] Hong Kong Stock Connect Services - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has indicated that the Hong Kong Stock Connect services will not be available from October 1 to October 8, with services resuming on October 9 [7] - The clearing and settlement for Hong Kong Stock Connect transactions will also follow the arrangements of China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited [7] Trading System Testing - To ensure normal trading after the holiday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange will conduct a trading system joint debugging test on October 8 (Wednesday) from 9:15 to 12:00 [5]

Group 1 - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays have prompted exchanges to adjust trading rules for various futures contracts [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has set new price fluctuation limits and margin requirements for multiple futures contracts starting from September 29 [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has also announced adjustments to price limits and margin levels for various futures contracts effective from September 29 [5] Group 2 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has adjusted the price fluctuation limits and margin requirements for international copper and crude oil futures contracts [3] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has specified new margin standards and price fluctuation limits for several agricultural and industrial futures contracts starting from September 29 [4] - The adjustments include a range of commodities, with specific percentages for price limits and margin levels across different contracts [2][3][5]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.19」 天然橡胶市场周报 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 业务咨询 添加客服 行情回顾：本周天然橡胶市场原料及宏观驱动减弱，胶价走跌。进口胶市场报盘下跌，套利盘平 仓出货，轮胎厂逢低补货。国产天然橡胶现货市场重心下调，美联储降息不及预期，宏观情绪降 温，现货市场报盘下调，交投谨慎，实单跟进有限。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区处于割胶期，云南产区天气扰动减少，胶水上量逐步恢复正常，原 料价格暂稳；海南产区降水扰动减弱，割胶作业有所恢复，岛内原料供应环比增量，虽未来将受 到台风天气影响，但受制于订单及利润空间一般，当地加工厂对原料补库情绪谨慎。近期青岛港 口库存延续降库，降幅幅度较上期稍有缩窄，其中保税库去库幅度大于预期，一般贸易库出现小 幅累库。下游大多补标胶为主，带动保税库提货量增加，去库幅度超预期，短时随着下游逐渐提 货到厂，一般贸易库存存去库预期。需求方面，本周国内轮胎企业产能利用率窄幅波动 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for rubber is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract for 20 rubber futures opening at 12,550.00 CNY/ton and showing a decline of approximately 3.10% [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by seasonal factors, with expectations for improved terminal consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, despite the current weak performance of rubber prices [1] - Supply constraints are noted due to adverse weather conditions affecting rubber tapping operations in both domestic and overseas production areas, leading to a tightening of raw material availability [2] Group 2 - The macro market sentiment is recovering, and supply disruptions are continuing, leading to a stabilization and potential upward movement in rubber prices [2] - Inventory levels for natural rubber are decreasing, particularly in the Qingdao region, indicating a tightening supply situation [2] - The return of the La Niña phenomenon may impact global weather patterns, although many regions are still expected to experience above-average temperatures [2]