20号胶期货

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国投期货软商品日报-20250825
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 11:51
上周美糖震荡。由于前期降水不足,巴西甘蔗单产有所下降。截止到6月底,巴西中南部地区甘蔗累积单产为79.32吨/公顷,同 比下降11.04%。另外,今年生产进度也偏慢,导致甘蔗和食糖产量同比明显下降。不过,今年的甘蔗制糖比例同比继续增加, 而且从糖醇比价来看,比值依然处于历史震荡区间上沿,美糖上方仍面临一定压力。国内方面,郑糖震荡。产销方面,今年销 售节奏较快,库存同比减少,现货压力相对较轻。从交易逻辑来看,市场的交易重心转向进口和下榨季的估产。今年搪浆进口 量大幅减少,国产糖的销售压力较小。不过,25/26榨季的产量预期存在不确定性,如果后期降雨不足可能会导致减产,关注后 续天气情况和甘蔗长势。 (苹果) 期价震荡。早熟苹果价格基本持稳、好货价格较高,客商采购积极性较好。冷库苹果方面,剩余货量不多,市场需求一般。库 存方面,卓创的数据显示,截止到8月22日,全国冷库苹果库存为40.42万吨,同比成少51.84%。上周全国冷库苹果去阵量为 5.71万吨,同比下降21.13%。从交易逻辑来看,市场的交易重心转向新李度的估产。今年西部产区受到实潮和花期大风的影 响,但是低温对产量的影响不太,主要增加了果锈的风险。另 ...
证监会期货司张博:我国期市已形成“直接开放为主、多元路径为辅”的开放格局
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-19 07:41
期货日报记者在论坛上了解到,我国对外开放成效显著,上海原油期货市场规模稳居全球前三,成为亚 太地区原油贸易的重要定价参考;挂钩20号胶期货价格的跨境贸易约占天然橡胶进口量的40%,约30% 的南美农民参考大商所黄大豆2号期货报价,"中国价格"国际影响力持续提升。 期货日报网讯(记者吕双梅)8月19日,由郑州商品交易所、芝加哥商业交易所集团联合主办的2025中国 (郑州)国际期货论坛正式开启。在当日下午举行的对外开放论坛上,中国证监会期货监管司张博表示, 当前我国期货市场已形成"直接开放为主、多元路径为辅"的开放格局,特定品种成为开放的主渠道。 张博表示,期货市场开放需统筹平衡开放与安全、当前与长远、在岸与离岸等多元目标,顺应公开市场 价格发现机制,依赖各方共同努力。"我们将持续推动中国期货市场对外开放。未来我国期货市场开放 品种范围将进一步拓宽,交易便利性将持续增强,跨境交流合作将不断深化。" 张博称,我国期货市场已构建起直接开放、合格境外投资者(QFI)参与、结算价授权三种对外开放模 式。截至目前,境内期货市场国际化品种达24个,覆盖原油、铁矿石、PTA等重点品类,吸引了来自40 个国家和地区的1000多名 ...
瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20250808
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 10:34
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.08」 天然橡胶市场周报 研究员:林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 3 行情回顾:本周利好驱动不足,胶价反弹力度有限。进口胶市场前期买盘补货积极,工厂刚需询 盘,实单成交价格强劲买涨。国产天然橡胶现货报盘跟随盘面重心上行,下游买盘积极性一般, 场内实单成交刚需为主。 行情展望:全球天然橡胶产区处于割胶期,云南产区持续降雨影响,割胶作业受阻明显,收购价 格维持高位震荡;海南产区天气情况尚可,原料供应维持季节性产出,现货市场加价成交受阻, 部分加工厂对高价原料谨慎情绪升温,胶水收购价格涨后企稳。近期青岛港口现货总库存呈现去 库态势,保税及一般贸易库均呈现去库。海外货源到港入库量维持偏少态势,整体入库率环比下 滑,而胶价下跌在一定程度刺激下游轮胎企业低位补货,整体出库量环比增加。需求方面,本周 国内轮胎产能利用率小幅波动,个别半钢胎企业存停减产现象,对整体产能利用率形成一定拖拽; 全钢胎部分检修企业复工,适度提产带动整体产能利用率提升,但仍有个别企业安排检修,限制 整体产能 ...
集体暴涨!多个大宗商品期货连日涨停,交易所紧急提醒
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-26 08:19
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in commodity futures prices, particularly in iron alloy, lithium carbonate, and coking coal, has prompted multiple exchanges to issue risk warnings and adjust risk control parameters to ensure market stability [1][12][13]. Price Movements - On July 25, major domestic commodity futures contracts saw significant price increases, with coking coal futures rising for seven consecutive trading days, reaching 1259 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 49% for the month [4]. - Lithium carbonate futures also hit the limit, closing at 80,520 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 28% [4]. - Other commodities such as manganese silicon and silicon iron also reached their price limits, with monthly increases of 13% and 15%, respectively [4]. Market Dynamics - The total amount of funds in the futures market reached approximately 778.3 billion yuan, the highest since January 2014, indicating strong market activity [8]. - From June 3 to July 25, coking coal prices increased by 73%, while polysilicon and glass prices rose by 56% and 35%, respectively [8]. Policy Influence - Analysts attribute the price surge to the "anti-involution" policies emphasized in the Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting, which aim to promote a unified national market and improve product quality [8][9]. - The policies are expected to lead to structural reforms in supply, contributing to the current bullish sentiment in the market [9]. Risk Management - Exchanges such as Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange have issued risk warnings to their members, urging them to enhance risk management and investor education [12][13]. - The Guangxi Exchange has adjusted risk control parameters for several commodities, including increasing margin requirements and transaction fees [13]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the future trajectory of commodities like manganese silicon will depend on the implementation of policies and the ability of downstream industries to absorb rising raw material costs [10]. - The market sentiment is currently driven by policy expectations, with a focus on the stability of external demand and substantial improvements in domestic demand [10][14].
瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20250725
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 11:21
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.25」 天然橡胶市场周报 研究员:林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾:本周宏观气氛偏多,胶价继续上移。进口胶市场报盘上涨,贸易商轮换,套利盘加仓, 工厂刚需询盘。期货盘面偏强震荡,现货报盘重心上移,市场观望情绪较浓,下游接货积极性欠 佳,多维持刚需采购。 行情展望:全球天然橡胶产区处于割胶期,云南产区降雨影响,胶水较少,收购价格保持坚挺; 海南产区局部存在降水扰动,岛内原料供应季节性增量缓慢,受期现货行情上涨提振,部分加工 厂对原料加价抢收情绪持续升温。近期青岛港口现货总库存呈现去库态势,保税及一般贸易库均 呈现小幅去库,海外货源到港入库较前期明显减少,且胶价上涨推动轮胎企业补库意愿,进而带 动整体出库量大于入库量,青岛港口总库存呈现去库态势。需求方面,个别意外检修企业生产恢 复,带动本周国内轮胎整体产能利用率小幅提升,临近月底,企业整体出货表现不及预期,成品 库存小幅增加, ...
这一市场,大爆发
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-07-25 04:24
Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market experienced slight adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 3600-point mark, closing down 0.34% [2] - The brokerage sector, often seen as a market leader, initially surged but later reversed gains, with stocks like Western Securities hitting the daily limit [2] - Individual stocks remained active, with Xining Special Steel achieving a consecutive five-day limit up, reporting a cumulative increase of 46.81% over four trading days [2][3] Group 2: Company Announcements - Xining Special Steel's latest rolling P/B ratio is 2.31, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.01 [3] - Tibet Tourism also reported a static P/E ratio of 238.16 and a P/B ratio of 3.85, with a trading turnover rate of 5.87% [4] - Both companies highlighted the potential for irrational market behavior and rapid price increases, urging investors to exercise caution [4] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a generally weak performance, with the Hang Seng Index down over 1% [5] - Among the constituents, companies like WuXi Biologics and Nongfu Spring saw gains, while stocks like Kuaishou and New Oriental faced declines [6] Group 4: Futures Market Trends - The domestic futures market saw significant increases across various commodities, including lithium carbonate and glass, with lithium futures rising by 7.94% to 80,480 yuan/ton [9][11] - Glass futures also surged, with prices exceeding 1,300 yuan/ton, marking an increase of over 30% compared to a month ago [10][12] - Other commodities like coking coal and soda ash also experienced substantial price hikes [13]
天然橡胶和号胶期货:胶胶短期内或保持偏强震荡
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 10:48
C 国金期货 观投研丨产业链周报 成文日期:20250719 报告周期:周度 研究员:何宁 从业资格号:F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219 整体来看天然橡 胶短期内或保持偏强震荡 研究品种:天然橡胶 天然橡胶和 号胶期货 具 体如下: 万 万 万 万 ■● ● 橡胶2601 (SHFE ru2601) 日线 ▼ 15800 105 / 0.67 70 10 15385 50 MA60 15126 3 281天 KDJ(9.3.3) ▽ K 89.02 D 85.75 anamilling oldaml www ar 10310 图片来源:文华财经 wh6 二 现货 分析 国内海南 降雨较多 割胶工作受阻,全岛近 期日收胶量约 吨,不及去年同期水平 图 2:天然橡胶 2601(RU2601)日线图 图 3:20 号胶 2509(NR2509)日线图 1 4 281天 KDJ(9,3,3) ✓ K 89.87 D -25/07/2 图片来源:文华财经 wh6 权请联系我们。本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或我公司调研资料,我公司保证已经审慎 审核、甄别和判断信息内容,但由于信息获取和展示的局限性 ...
成品库存去库依旧困难 沪胶期货高位存调整可能
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-24 07:09
Group 1 - The main contract for 20 rubber futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 13,280.00 yuan, with a current price of 13,270.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.51% [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future price trends of rubber, with expectations of price adjustments and potential declines in the short term [1][2] Group 2 - Shenyin Wanguo Futures predicts that the short-term rubber price will experience fluctuations due to ongoing rainfall affecting rubber tapping and a weak demand side during the off-peak consumption season [1] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates a possible price correction in the short term, citing difficulties in reducing finished product inventories and weak consumption related to exports [1][2] - China’s tire production statistics show a mixed performance, with full steel tire operating rates increasing significantly while semi-steel tire rates have slightly decreased, indicating a complex demand landscape [2] - The export of rubber tires from China has seen a decline, with a 6.9% drop in June, raising concerns about future trade risks, particularly with major markets like the EU and the US [2]
基差统计表-20250722
Mai Ke Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 08:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a detailed table of the basis rate statistics for various futures on July 22, 2025, including the basis rate, change from the previous day, monthly basis, and contract prices for different commodities across multiple sectors such as non - ferrous metals, precious metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. 3. Summary by Related Categories Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): Basis rate is 0.41%, down 0.04% from the previous day, with a current month basis of 325 and a spot price of 79,555 [4]. - Aluminum (AL): Basis rate is 0.70%, down 0.25% from the previous day, current month basis is 110, and spot price is 20,890 [4]. - Zinc (ZN): Basis rate is 0.15%, up 0.06% from the previous day, current month basis is 70, and spot price is 22,820 [4]. - Tin (SN): Basis rate is 0.61%, up 0.01% from the previous day, current month basis is 1630, and spot price is 267,200 [4]. - Nickel (NI): Basis rate is 0.95%, down 0.09% from the previous day, current month basis is 1160, and spot price is 122,850 [4]. - Industrial Silicon: Basis rate is 4.28%, down 1.73% from the previous day, current month basis is 415, and spot price is 9500 [4]. - Lithium Carbonate (LC): Basis rate is - 4.14%, down 0.04% from the previous day, current month basis is - 2880, and spot price is 68,020 [4]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU): Basis rate is - 0.60%, down 0.13% from the previous day, current month basis is - 2.32, and spot price is 777.00 [4]. - Silver (AG): Basis rate is - 0.49%, up 0.18% from the previous day, current month basis is - 16, and spot price is 9226 [4]. Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil (SC): Basis rate is - 5.41%, up 3.12% from the previous day, current month basis is - 27.7, and spot price is 484.6 [4]. - Fuel Oil (EU): Basis rate is 4.30%, down 0.72% from the previous day, current month basis is 126, and spot price is 3050 [4]. - Asphalt (BU): Basis rate is 5.41%, up 0.90% from the previous day, current month basis is 198, and spot price is 3855 [4]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): Basis rate is 2.30%, up 1.65% from the previous day, current month basis is 82, and spot price is 3685 [4]. - LPG (PG): Basis rate is 10.14%, down 0.84% from the previous day, current month basis is 464, and spot price is 4498 [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybean: Basis rate is - 5.69%, down 0.23% from the previous day, current month basis is - 239, and spot price is 3960 [4]. - Bean Meal (M): Basis rate is - 5.83%, down 0.40% from the previous day, current month basis is - 179, and spot price is 2890 [4]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): Basis rate is - 3.19%, up 0.19% from the previous day, current month basis is - 87, and spot price is 2640 [4]. - Corn: Basis rate is 0.00%, down 0.26% from the previous day, current month basis is 0, and spot price is 2320 [4]. - Corn Starch (CS): Basis rate is 0.60%, down 0.23% from the previous day, current month basis is 16, and spot price is 2680 [4]. - Apple (AP): Basis rate is - 1.55%, down 0.50% from the previous day, current month basis is - 123, and spot price is 7800 [4]. - Eggs (JD): Basis rate is - 12.54%, down 1.00% from the previous day, current month basis is - 456, and spot price is 3180 [4]. - Live Pigs (LH): Basis rate is 0.24%, down 1.63% from the previous day, current month basis is not clear, and spot price is 14,400 [4]. - Cotton (CF): Basis rate is 9.90%, up 1.22% from the previous day, current month basis is 1404, and spot price is 15,589 [4]. - Sugar (SR): Basis rate is 4.81%, down 0.23% from the previous day, current month basis is 281, and spot price is 6120 [4]. Others - Rebar (RB): Basis rate is 3.29%, down 0.62% from the previous day, current month basis is 106, and spot price is 3330 [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil (HC): Basis rate is 1.06%, down 0.45% from the previous day, current month basis is 36, and spot price is 3430 [4]. - Iron Ore: Basis rate is 4.64%, unchanged from the previous day, current month basis is 36.5, and spot price is 821.5 [4]. - Coke: Basis rate is - 7.93%, down 0.20% from the previous day, current month basis is - 127.1, and spot price is 1476 [4]. - Coking Coal (JIM): Basis rate is 9.34%, down 9.45% from the previous day, current month basis is 94.0, and spot price is 1100.0 [4]. - Silicon Iron (SF): Basis rate is - 6.32%, down 1.63% from the previous day, current month basis is - 358, and spot price is 5310 [4]. - Manganese Ore (SM): Basis rate is - 1.08%, down 1.87% from the previous day, current month basis is - 64, and spot price is 5850 [4]. - Stainless Steel: Basis rate is - 0.43%, down 0.62% from the previous day, current month basis is - 25, and spot price is 12,850 [4]. - Glass (FG): Basis rate is 0.60%, down 6.71% from the previous day, current month basis is 7, and spot price is 1180 [4]. - Methanol (MA): Basis rate is 0.89%, down 0.80% from the previous day, current month basis is 22, and spot price is 2433 [4]. - Ethanol (EG): Basis rate is 1.47%, up 0.13% from the previous day, current month basis is 65, and spot price is 4475 [4]. - PTA (TA): Basis rate is 0.21%, down 0.34% from the previous day, current month basis is 10, and spot price is 4790 [4]. - Polypropylene (PP): Basis rate is 3.23%, down 1.15% from the previous day, current month basis is 229, and spot price is 7320 [4]. - Styrene (EB): Basis rate is 0.91%, down 0.36% from the previous day, current month basis is 137, and spot price is 7560 [4]. - Short - Fiber (PF): Basis rate is 3.39%, down 0.97% from the previous day, current month basis is 218, and spot price is 6650 [4]. - Plastic: Basis rate is - 0.55%, down 1.02% from the previous day, current month basis is - 40, and spot price is 7250 [4]. - PVC (V): Basis rate is 5.61%, down 3.87% from the previous day, current month basis is 287, and spot price is 5405 [4]. - Rubber (RU): Basis rate is - 0.30%, down 0.23% from the previous day, current month basis is - 45, and spot price is 14,850 [4]. - 20 - Numbered Rubber (NR): Basis rate is 1.31%, down 0.36% from the previous day, current month basis is 167, and spot price is 12,917 [4]. - Soda Ash (SA): Basis rate is - 0.77%, up 0.05% from the previous day, current month basis is - 10, and spot price is 1285 [4]. - Urea (UR): Basis rate is 1.55%, down 2.18% from the previous day, current month basis is 28, and spot price is 1840 [4]. - Pulp (SP): Basis rate is 11.78%, down 0.89% from the previous day, current month basis is 629, and spot price is 5963 [4]. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): Basis rate is 0.51%, up 0.10% from the previous day, current month basis is 11.0, and spot price is 4085.6 [4]. - SSE 50 (IH): Basis rate is 0.04%, up 0.13% from the previous day, current month basis is 1.2, and spot price is 2772.2 [4]. - CSI 500 (IC): Basis rate is 1.75%, up 0.10% from the previous day, current month basis is 54.7, and spot price is 6161.3 [4].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250721
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 10:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall inventory at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend. External shipments arriving at the port and entering storage have significantly decreased compared to the previous period, and the rise in rubber prices has boosted tire companies' willingness to replenish stocks, leading to overall outbound volumes exceeding inbound volumes [2]. - In terms of demand, the production schedules of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually increased to normal levels, driving a restorative increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, enterprise production schedules are stabilizing, and there is an expected slight increase in orders in the middle and late months, which is expected to have a small positive impact on overall production. Enterprises adjust production flexibly based on their own inventory and order situations. In the short - term, the overall operating rate is expected to have little fluctuation. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,600 - 15,250, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,895 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,750 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 9 - 1 was - 765 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spread between 20 - number rubber contracts 8 - 9 was - 35 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,145 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 2,384 lots, and that of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 716 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 5,770 lots, and those in 20 - number rubber decreased by 2,056 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 20 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber increased by 1,312 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 45 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 310 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,762 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheets was 66.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.4 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber films was 63.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue was 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup glue was 48.6 Thai baht/kg, up 0.05 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 174.6 US dollars/ton, up 44.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 32.6 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, a decrease of 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.1%, up 0.54 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.99%, up 3.07 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.85 days, up 0.18 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.18 days, up 0.42 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.39%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.81%, down 0.49 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.3%, down 0.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.29%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.28%. Bonded area inventory decreased by 1.39%, and general trade inventory decreased by 0.13% [2]. - As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points [2].