新华财经北京11月21日电上海国际能源交易中心21日发布公告，就修订《上海国际能源交易中心20号胶 期货标准合约》及相关业务规则公开征求意见。对修订内容有关的意见和建议，以书面或者电子邮件形 式于2025年11月28日之前反馈至上海国际能源交易中心。 根据修订说明，本次修订一是拟增加20号胶替代品，20号胶替代品可以用于20号胶实物交割。拟修订 《合约》附件，在将原合约规定的质量标准作为"标准品"质量标准的基础上，增加"替代品"，并明 确"替代品"的质量标准等要求。 二是拟修订《交割细则》第十三章20号胶期货合约的交割，在相关条款中增加"标准品""替代品"的表 述，同时更新关于胶包薄膜厚度的表述，更好应对国标修订变化。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Natural Rubber Market Weekly Report [3] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market showed a divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber, with rubber prices rising and falling. The buying sentiment in the imported rubber market was weak, while the spot price of domestic natural rubber increased. The futures market fluctuated upwards, improving the trading sentiment [9]. - In the near future, the weather in Yunnan has improved, reducing the impact on rubber tapping. Driven by winter storage demand, concentrated latex factories have raised prices to purchase raw materials. In Hainan, the weather is fair, but the temperature has dropped, leading to a decline in the dry content of latex. Local processing plants have entered the winter storage phase and continue to offer higher prices for raw materials [9]. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to increase. The bonded warehouse is experiencing destocking, while the general trade inventory continues to rise. Overseas shipments to the port remain at a high level. Factories replenished their stocks earlier, and most of the out - bound goods from the general trade warehouse are for previous orders. The downstream's willingness to stock up is low, and there are few new orders [9]. - In terms of demand, tire companies' orders are insufficient. Some companies have scheduled maintenance, and others are operating at reduced capacity, dragging down the tire production capacity utilization rate. As the production of maintenance companies gradually resumes, the production capacity utilization rate of tire companies may show a restorative increase next week, but the overall demand improvement is limited, and companies will continue to control production [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,700 [9]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market showed a divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber, with rubber prices rising and falling. The buying sentiment in the imported rubber market was weak, while the spot price of domestic natural rubber increased. The futures market fluctuated upwards, improving the trading sentiment [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The weather in Yunnan has improved, and winter storage demand has led to price increases for raw materials. In Hainan, the temperature has dropped, and local processing plants are in the winter storage phase. Qingdao Port's total inventory continues to increase, with the bonded warehouse destocking and general trade inventory rising. Tire companies' orders are insufficient, but production capacity utilization may recover slightly next week [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,700 [9]. 4.2 Futures and Spot Markets 4.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed up with a weekly increase of 0.16%, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber also closed up with a weekly increase of 0.16% [12]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific position analysis results are provided in the text. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of November 21, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 80, and the spread between 20 - rubber 1 - 2 was - 15 [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 20, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 39,600 tons, a decrease of 68,870 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 49,795 tons, an increase of 100 tons from last week [27]. 4.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of November 20, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 14,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [31]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of November 20, the 20 - rubber basis was 773 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 4.3 Industry Situation 4.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of November 21, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 57 (+0.7) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 52.95 (+0.85) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 32.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 18.6 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Price**: As of November 20, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [43]. 4.3.2 Import - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [47]. 4.3.3 Qingdao Inventory - As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 0.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.71 percentage points [50]. 4.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization**: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [53]. - **Tire Exports**: In October 2025, China's tire exports were 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative tire exports were 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 225,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 2.7266 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%; the exports of truck and bus tires were 398,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 4.0265 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [56]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In October 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September this year and a significant year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [59].

上期所相关工作人员介绍，上期所和上期能源已推出6个国际化特定品种以及32个合格境外投资者可交 易品种，覆盖金属、能源、化工等多个板块。目前SC原油期货已成为全球第三大原油期货市场，20号 胶期货、集运指数（欧线）期货等品种的成交规模远超境外同类产品。在极端市场环境下，上期所展现 出较强的风险抵御能力和价格引导作用，得到了国际市场的广泛认可。 上期所在成都开展期货公司能力提升培训 与此同时，上期所和上期能源在境外品牌注册、跨境交收等方面成果斐然。目前，已有128个境外品牌 注册，包括42个共建"一带一路"国家的境外品牌。上期所通过"制定标准"和"输出标准"，引导境外品牌 厂商在生产工艺、质量标准等环节向中国企业的需求不断倾斜，助力中国企业更好利用"两个市 场"和"两种资源"。 近日，由上期所主办的"上期大学堂——从业人员强化班"期货公司提升服务实体经济能力专班（第二 期）在成都举行。 作为中西部地区重要城市，成都正以创新之力构建金融发展新格局，推动成渝共建西部金融中心走向纵 深阶段。《四川省贯彻〈成渝共建西部金融中心规划〉实施方案》提出，"加强信贷、保险、期货、担 保等金融工具综合应用""支持符合条件的证券期货 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the raw material side of the natural rubber market was firm, and rubber prices rebounded slightly. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, while factories were cautious about restocking. The futures market showed a volatile and strengthening pattern, and the spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber adjusted within a narrow range. The trading volume of real orders was light [6]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's raw material prices are stable, and the region is expected to enter the non - tapping season by the end of this month. Hainan's weather is favorable for tapping, and local factories are still offering higher prices for raw materials. The total inventory in Qingdao ports is still increasing, but the rate has slowed down. The bonded warehouse has a slight reduction in inventory, while the general trade warehouse continues to accumulate inventory. In the short term, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao may still be in an accumulation state [6]. - In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' production capacity utilization rates fluctuated slightly, while some full - steel tire enterprises had maintenance plans, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected to decline further next week [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15570 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12000 - 12600 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The raw material side of the natural rubber market was firm, and rubber prices rebounded slightly. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, and the futures market was volatile and strengthening. The spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber adjusted within a narrow range, and real - order trading was light [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan is expected to enter the non - tapping season by the end of the month, while Hainan's tapping is progressing well. Qingdao's inventory is still accumulating, but the rate has slowed. The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire enterprises may decline further [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15570, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12000 - 12600 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 1.47% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - grade rubber rose by 1.91% week - on - week [9]. - As of November 14, the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 85, and the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - grade rubber was - 30 [19]. - As of November 14, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 108470 tons, a decrease of 10500 tons from last week; the 20 - grade rubber warehouse receipts were 49695 tons, an increase of 1109 tons from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - As of November 13, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14800 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - As of November 13, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 798 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of November 13, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 56.3 (+0) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.1 (+0.2) Thai baht/kg. As of November 14, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5.4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18 US dollars/ton from last week [37]. - As of November 13, the latex price in Yunnan was 14000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14300 yuan/ton, the same as last week [40]. - **Import Volume** - In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 59.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 471.72 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [43]. - **Inventory in Qingdao** - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 44.95 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded area inventory was 6.78 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.60% [47]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [50]. - **Tire Exports**: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 68.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57 and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 639.08 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [54]. - **Domestic Heavy - Truck Sales**: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [57]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No information provided.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Not clearly indicated, but the operation suggestion is to wait and see [2] - Pulp: One star, representing a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Sugar: Not clearly indicated, but the price is expected to remain weak [3] - Apple: Not clearly indicated, but short - term prices are expected to remain strong [4] - Log: Not clearly indicated, but the operation suggestion is to wait and see [7] - 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, Butadiene rubber: One star, representing a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1][5] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show different trends. Factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory influence their prices. The report provides corresponding operation suggestions for each commodity [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined slightly, with a risk of short - term downward break. New cotton cost provides some support, but price increases face hedging pressure. The cotton yarn market is stable with stable demand. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Brazilian production data in mid - October was neutral. Domestic sugar prices are weakly oscillating. The market's focus is on the next season's production estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices rose significantly. The inventory decreased year - on - year. Short - term prices are strong, but the long - term de - stocking situation is the key trading point [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, Synthetic rubber - Futures prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber rose, and butadiene rubber futures prices rose slightly. Supply pressure is easing, demand is slowly increasing, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices continued to rise. The inventory decreased. Short - term upward space may be limited, but there is a risk of a short squeeze. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [6] Log - Futures prices are weakly operating. Supply may remain low, demand supports prices, and low inventory also provides some support. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the fundamental negative factors in the natural rubber market were gradually digested, and rubber prices first declined and then rose. The offer price of imported rubber in the market decreased, and the trading atmosphere was average. The futures market showed a weak oscillation, and the spot offer price of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly within the range. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, raw material prices are basically stable with relatively abundant supplies, while in Hainan, due to limited improvement in precipitation, tapping operations have resumed slowly, with a relatively small total supply of raw materials. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has increased significantly. The bonded warehouse has seen a slight decrease in inventory, while the general trade warehouse has a large increase. Overseas arrivals have increased, and the total inbound volume of warehouses in Qingdao has increased significantly month - on - month. However, tire factories have sufficient inventory after previous replenishment and are mostly on the sidelines regarding high - priced raw materials. - This week, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises has returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. Next week, most enterprises will maintain stable production, but it is heard that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [8]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,200 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,250 in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The fundamental negative factors in the natural rubber market were gradually digested this week, with rubber prices first falling and then rising. Imported rubber offers declined, and the trading atmosphere was average. The futures market was weakly oscillating, and domestic natural rubber spot offers adjusted slightly. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has stable raw material prices and abundant supplies, while Hainan has slow recovery in tapping and limited raw material supply. Qingdao Port's total inventory has increased significantly, with a slight decrease in the bonded warehouse and a large increase in the general trade warehouse. Overseas arrivals are increasing, but tire factories are cautious about high - priced raw materials. The production of domestic tire enterprises is generally stable, but an individual enterprise may have a maintenance plan. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,700 - 15,200, and the nr2601 contract between 11,800 - 12,250 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.6%; the main contract price of 20 - rubber oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.67% [13]. - **Position Analysis**: As of November 7, the spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 1 - 5 was - 75, and the spread between 20 - rubber contracts 1 - 2 was - 30 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 7, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 118,970 tons, a decrease of 1,930 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 48,586 tons, an increase of 3,931 tons from last week [27]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of November 6, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of November 6, the 20 - rubber basis was 905 yuan/ton, an increase of 156 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 465 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of November 6, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 56.3 (+0.3) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 51.9 (-1.4) Thai baht/kg. As of November 7, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 23.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - **Domestic Producing Areas**: As of November 6, the price of Yunnan latex was 13,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from last week; the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 14,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [42]. - **Import Quantity**: According to customs data, in September 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - classified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4,717,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [45]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons, or 3.57%. The bonded area inventory was 68,300 tons, a decrease of 0.58%; the general trade inventory was 379,400 tons, an increase of 4.36% [49]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In September 2025, China's tire exports were 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, the cumulative tire exports were 6,390,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88%. - **Domestic Heavy - Truck Sales**: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [59]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View The report presents the basis data of various commodities as of October 31, 2025, including macro, black, energy - chemical, non - ferrous, and agricultural products, aiming to show the price relationship between spot and futures of different commodities [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - IF: Spot price was 4641, down 69. Basis was 9, corresponding to the 2512 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.26 [2]. - IH: Spot price was 3012, down 35. Basis was - 4, corresponding to the 2512 contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.56 [2]. - IC: Spot price was 7331, down 55. Basis was 89, corresponding to the 2512 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.75 [2]. Black - For example, Shanghai's rebar spot price was 3230, unchanged. Basis was 124, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.48 [3]. - Tianjin Port's coke spot price was 1710, unchanged. Basis was - 67, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.45 [3]. Energy - Chemical - Port methanol spot price was 2125, unchanged. Basis was - 55, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.88 [3]. - East China's PTA spot price was 4514, up 16. Basis was - 72, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.68 [3]. Non - Ferrous - Copper spot price was 87540, down 510. Basis was 0, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.26 [4]. - Aluminum spot price was 21280, up 80. Basis was 0, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of 0.27 [4]. Agricultural Products - Jiangsu's 43% soybean meal spot price was 2970, up 30. Basis was - 51, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.21 [5]. - Jiangsu's first - grade soybean oil spot price was 8460, up 60. Basis was 332, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.25 [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On October 31, 2025, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.31%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2317.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 103.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 index continued to adjust, and the prices of some commodities like iron ore and asphalt declined slightly [1][2][10]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of different industries are changing. For instance, the steel market is facing a shift from macro - driven sentiment to industry reality, and the alumina industry is in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand [11][12]. 3. Summary by Product Stock Index Futures - On October 31, the A - share market saw a collective decline. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79 points (down 0.81%), the Shenzhen Component Index at 13378.21 points (down 1.14%), and the ChiNext Index at 3187.53 points (down 2.31%). The trading volume of the two markets was 2317.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 103.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4640.67, a decrease of 69.24 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal Futures - Coke's second - round price increase has fully landed, and a third - round increase may start. The steel mills in some areas have production - limiting plans, and the finished product prices have slightly increased. The supply of raw materials may face pressure as the peak season for steel is ending. The daily consumption of coke is 107.96 million tons (- 0.47), and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.71% (0.44) [5]. - Coking coal's supply increase is limited due to environmental protection and safety inspections, supporting its price. The spot prices of some coking coal varieties have changed, and the inventory of coking coal in different sectors also shows different trends [6]. Sugar Futures - Due to a large short - term decline, the US sugar stopped falling and rebounded slightly on October 31. The night - session of the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract closed slightly lower due to long - position liquidation [7]. Rubber Futures - The Shanghai rubber futures had a slight decline in the night - session on October 31 due to technical factors. The 20 - number rubber futures had a larger decline due to an increase in inventory. The natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1425 tons, and the 20 - number rubber inventory increased by 2217 tons [7]. Soybean Meal Futures - Internationally, on October 31, the CBOT soybeans were strong, reaching a 15 - month high. After the China - US summit, the market expects China to increase its purchase of US agricultural products including soybeans. Domestically, the M2601 main contract closed at 3021 yuan/ton on October 31, up 0.9%. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the inventory pressure of soybean meal still exists [8]. Live Pig Futures - On October 31, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11815 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. The secondary fattening activity has cooled down significantly, and the market supply has increased. The demand has a seasonal warming expectation, but the consumption recovery is limited. The "supply exceeds demand" situation in the live pig market remains unchanged [9]. Copper Futures - The Sino - US trade situation has eased, and the Fed cut interest rates slightly in October. However, the market risk appetite has weakened, and the copper price is suppressed. But overseas mine disruptions and low non - US inventories still support the copper price [9]. Cotton Futures - On the night of October 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13555 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 20 lots compared with the previous day, and the price of machine - picked cotton is concentrated at 6.15 - 6.45 yuan/kg [9]. Iron Ore Futures - On October 31, the 2601 main contract of iron ore closed down 0.56% at 800 yuan. The iron ore shipment volume increased slightly, and the domestic arrival volume decreased significantly for two consecutive periods. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the iron ore price is in a volatile trend due to the decline in the steel mill profitability rate and environmental protection control in Hebei [10]. Asphalt Futures - On October 31, the 2601 main contract of asphalt closed down 0.58% at 3244 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The demand is slowly released due to cooling and rainfall, and the asphalt price follows the cost - end crude oil and shows a volatile trend [10]. Log Futures - On October 31, the 2601 log contract opened at 785, with the lowest at 783, the highest at 796.5, and closed at 787.5, with a daily reduction of 844 lots. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a de - stocking pattern [11]. Steel Futures - After the China - US summit, the market sentiment driven by macro - expectations has cooled down, and the steel price is returning to the industrial reality. In early November, the steel demand may not continue to grow, and the steel price may show a volatile trend [11]. Alumina Futures - The supply of alumina is still relatively large, but the output may be forced to converge as the spot price approaches the cost line. The demand for alumina is stable as the domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is close to the industry upper limit and has a high operating rate [12]. Aluminum Futures - The supply of alumina is relatively large, and the electrolytic aluminum smelting plants have good profits. The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is boosted by the warming of the domestic macro - sentiment and the development of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price changes of various commodities on October 29, 2025, compared to October 28, 2025, including chemicals, agricultural products, and more. It also covers macro - economic news and provides trading strategies for different commodities and financial products based on their fundamentals and market trends [4]. - Macroeconomic news shows positive developments in China - ASEAN cooperation, potential progress in Sino - EU trade talks, and China's stance on financial opening - up and economic policies. The performance of the A - share market and international stock markets is also analyzed [7][8][20][21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Commodity Price Changes - **Chemicals**: On October 29, 2025, among chemicals, glass had the highest increase rate of 1.348% (from 1,113.00 to 1,128.00), while crude oil had the largest decline rate of - 0.994% (from 462.70 to 458.10) [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, soybean meal had the highest increase rate of 0.538% (from 2,975.00 to 2,991.00), and palm oil had the largest decline rate of - 1.496% (from 8,958.00 to 8,824.00) [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic News - China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol, expanding cooperation in emerging fields [7]. - There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths, and China hopes for dialogue to solve trade differences [7]. - China is committed to financial opening - up, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - The revised Network Security Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, and the Environmental Protection Tax Law will include volatile organic compounds in the tax scope [8]. - The number of overseas travelers for tax - free shopping and the tax - free amount in China have increased significantly this year [8]. - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held from November 5th to 10th, with an expanded scale [8]. - China's soybean area and output are expected to remain high, and the number of breeding sows has decreased [8]. - China's wholesale and retail industries have shown growth in the first three quarters [8]. - The 2025 Hurun Rich List was announced, with Zhong Shanshan becoming the richest man in China [9]. 3.3 Commodity Trading Strategies - **Agricultural Products** - **Peanuts**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 7700 - 7900, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Sugar**: Consider selling call options at high prices, with a support level at 5450 yuan/ton [13]. - **Corn**: Observe the support in the 2100 - 2120 range [14]. - **Pigs**: The near - term futures are expected to be strong, and the long - term futures will remain weak [14]. - **Eggs**: Short - sell on the futures and conduct inter - month reverse arbitrage [16]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see, and consider going long if it breaks through 13600 yuan/ton [16]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Urea**: The UR2601 contract is expected to operate in the 1580 - 1670 yuan/ton range [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: The 2601 contract is under pressure [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are expected to remain strong, with coking coal facing pressure around 1300 and coke around 1800 [16]. - **Industrial Metals** - **Copper and Aluminum**: Prices are expected to remain high, but beware of macro - risks [17]. - **Alumina**: The 2601 contract is operating at a low level [17]. - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with rebar facing pressure around 3200 and hot - rolled coils around 3400 [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: They will maintain a wide - range fluctuating follow - up trend, and the industrial rebound hedging idea remains unchanged [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Adopt a bullish strategy, with a support level at 80000 and a pressure level at 84000 [19]. - **Options and Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: Trend investors can focus on inter - variety spread arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide straddles after the HO volatility decline [19]. - **Stock Index**: Although the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points, there is still a need for consolidation. Pay attention to the performance of the third - quarter reports of listed companies [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The latest warehouse receipt data for rubber futures from the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicates stable and fluctuating trends in various rubber categories, reflecting market dynamics and inventory levels [1] Group 1: Warehouse Receipt Data - The warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber futures stand at 3,050 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period [1] - The factory warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber are at 5,870 tons, also unchanged from the previous period [1] - The warehouse receipts for natural rubber futures total 123,310 tons, showing a decrease of 710 tons compared to the previous period [1] - The warehouse receipts for No. 20 rubber futures amount to 43,849 tons, reflecting an increase of 1,209 tons from the previous period [1]