【市场复盘】 【机构观点】 西南证券认为，全球视角来看，化工行业已经处于新一轮景气周期的起点。我国化工企业在过去几年从 做大到做强，具备了更为坚实的利润基础和更为可观的利润弹性。展望2026年，美国进入降息通道，经 济出现衰退的风险较小，而我国2026年重点经济工作中将提振内需放在任务首位，政策工具充足，所以 认为2026年化工行业的供需改善有望超预期。 1. 上一交易日，INE主力原油期货收跌1.60元/桶，跌幅0.33%，报488.30元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高 硫燃料油收跌10.00元/吨，跌幅0.34%，报2943.00元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌41.00元/吨，跌幅1.18%，报 3436.00元/吨。 2. 上一交易日，天胶主力合约收涨2.10%，20号胶主力收涨2.34%，上海现货价格上调至16300元/吨附 近，基差持稳。节中外盘胶价上涨叠加原油走高，预计橡胶类品质表现延续偏强震荡，后续关注库存拐 点以及产区动态。 3. 上一交易日，乙二醇主力合约上涨，涨幅0.38%。供应端方面，CCF数据显示，乙二醇装置整体变化 不大，其中几套EO-EG联产装置在春节期间有不同程度的调整。3月份进口预计环比下 ...

40.55%，环比-19.90个百分点，同比-13.74个百分点。 05合约短线预计在16500-17300区间波动,nr2604合约短线预计在13500-14000区间波动。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 免责声明 天然橡胶产业日报 2026-02-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17240 | 210 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13980 | 185 | | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 130 | -70 20号胶4-5价差(日,元/吨) | -45 | 5 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3260 | 25 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 175091 | 13023 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 45890 | -1632 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -35223 | 2014 | | | 20 ...

| 序号 | 言约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 天价 | 荣价 | 陈相对于 | 果用 | 英语 | 成交通 | 排跌 | 持包量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 碳酸锂2605 M | 164500 | 1375 | 164500 | 164540 | 2.17% | 80 | 1 | 1375 | 3500 | 365128 | -52 | | 2 | 20号胶2S04 m | 13950 | 23 | 13945 | 13950 | 2.12% | 6 | 1 | 20825 | 290 | 47870 | 348 | | 3 | 液体系202 m | 1184 | 6 | 1183 | 1184 | 1.98% | 103 | 665 | 144466 | 23 | 1146126 | -3307 | | पं | 护锡2803 M | 394290 | 163 | 394100 | 394300 | 1.97% | 4 | 3 | 76966 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market prices were volatile at high levels. Imported rubber prices rose, while domestic spot prices also increased. However, demand showed no significant improvement, and actual orders were average [10]. - Currently, domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas production is transitioning from peak to the reduction period, resulting in a decrease in overall supply. Qingdao port inventories are accumulating, and this trend is expected to continue during the Spring Festival as downstream enterprises complete their stocking and gradually enter the holiday period [10]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined significantly this week, and it will reach an annual low during the Spring Festival holiday next week [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Pay attention to overseas macro - situations, geopolitical issues, and overseas production area conditions during the long holiday [9]. - Market review: Imported rubber market prices rose, and domestic spot prices increased due to external macro - sentiment and higher futures prices. However, demand remained weak [10]. - Market outlook: Supply is decreasing, port inventories are accumulating, and tire enterprise capacity utilization will be low during the Spring Festival [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - Price trends: The main contract price of Shanghai Rubber futures rose 1.46% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose 1% week - on - week [13]. - Position analysis: Not detailed in the summary part, only mentioned the top 20 position changes of Shanghai Rubber and 20 - rubber [16][18]. - Inter - delivery spread: As of February 13, the spread between Shanghai Rubber's May and September contracts was 120, and the spread between 20 - rubber's March and April contracts was - 60 [25]. - Warehouse receipts: As of February 12, Shanghai Rubber warehouse receipts were 112,570 tons, an increase of 500 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 50,803 tons, a decrease of 201 tons from last week [29]. - **Spot Market** - Domestic natural rubber: As of February 12, the price of state - owned whole latex was 16,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - 20 - rubber basis and non - standard basis: As of February 12, the 20 - rubber basis was 365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from last week [39]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - Thailand: As of February 13, the price of field latex in Thailand was 62.3 (+3) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 55 (+1) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton from last week [42]. - Domestic: Yunnan and Hainan producing areas are in the off - season [45]. - **Import Volume** - In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [51]. - **Inventory in Qingdao** - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 606,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons, or 2.55%. The bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%, and the general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78% [54]. - **Downstream** - Tire capacity utilization: As of February 12, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points [57]. - Tire export: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative export volume was 8,430,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [60]. - Domestic demand: In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 39% compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year [63]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content.

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of the changes in futures warehouse receipts for various commodities, indicating stability in some while showing increases in others, which may reflect market trends and supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Nickel and Fuel Oil - Nickel futures warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 52,027 tons compared to the previous trading day [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts also remain unchanged at 4,980 tons [1] Group 2: Rubber and Aluminum - 20 rubber futures warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 50,803 tons [1] - Aluminum futures warehouse receipts increased by 33,088 tons to a total of 200,654 tons [1] Group 3: Copper and Steel - International copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,001 tons to 14,319 tons [1] - Hot-rolled coil futures warehouse receipts increased by 21,435 tons to 297,854 tons [1] Group 4: Other Commodities - Pulp warehouse futures receipts increased by 4,988 tons to 136,415 tons [1] - Silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 7,531 kilograms to 349,633 kilograms [1] - Lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,501 tons to 52,968 tons [1] - Zinc futures warehouse receipts increased by 725 tons to 43,060 tons [1] - Tin futures warehouse receipts increased by 3,780 tons to 10,296 tons [1] - Copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 8,282 tons to 187,179 tons [1]

Market Overview - On February 10, 2026, the domestic futures market opened with mixed performance among the main contracts, with notable increases in certain commodities [3][7] - Silver and tin saw gains exceeding 3%, while caustic soda rose over 2% [3][7] - Other commodities such as SC crude oil, butadiene rubber, soybean one, fuel oil, international copper, and No. 20 rubber increased by more than 1% [3][7] Declines in Specific Commodities - Conversely, polysilicon, styrene, and coking coal experienced declines of over 1% [3][7] - Pulp, pure benzene, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell nearly 1% [3][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai International Energy Exchange, and Guangzhou Futures Exchange have announced adjustments to the price limits and margin requirements for various futures contracts ahead of the 2026 Spring Festival [1] Group 1: Adjustments by Shanghai Futures Exchange - Starting from the settlement on February 12, 2026, the price limit for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and alumina futures will be adjusted to 13%, with margin requirements set at 14% for hedging and 15% for general positions [2] - Nickel and tin futures will have a price limit of 15%, with margin requirements of 16% for hedging and 17% for general positions [2] - Futures for casting aluminum alloy, wire rod, and stainless steel will see a price limit of 11%, with margin requirements of 12% for hedging and 13% for general positions [2] - Gold futures will have a price limit of 20%, with margin requirements of 21% for hedging and 22% for general positions [2] - Silver futures will have a price limit of 25%, with margin requirements of 26% for hedging and 27% for general positions [2] - Futures for rebar, hot-rolled coils, pulp, and printing paper will have a price limit of 10%, with margin requirements of 11% for hedging and 12% for general positions [2] - Futures for fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, butadiene rubber, and natural rubber will have a price limit of 12%, with margin requirements of 13% for hedging and 14% for general positions [2] Group 2: Adjustments by Shanghai International Energy Exchange - From February 12, 2026, the price limit for international copper futures will be set at 13%, with margin requirements of 14% for hedging and 15% for general positions [3] - Crude oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and No. 20 rubber futures will have a price limit of 12%, with margin requirements of 13% for hedging and 14% for general positions [3] - The shipping index (European line) futures will have a price limit of 18%, with a margin requirement of 20% [3] Group 3: Adjustments by Guangzhou Futures Exchange - Starting from February 12, 2026, the price limit for industrial silicon futures will be adjusted to 11%, with speculative margin requirements set at 13% and hedging margin requirements at 12% [3] - The price limit for polysilicon futures will be adjusted to 12%, with margin requirements remaining unchanged for both speculative and hedging positions [3] - The price limit for lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted to 15%, with speculative margin requirements set at 17% and hedging margin requirements at 16% [3] - The price limit for platinum and palladium futures will be adjusted to 24%, with both speculative and hedging margin requirements set at 26% [3] Group 4: Resumption of Trading - Trading will resume on February 24, 2026, and the price limits and margin requirements for industrial silicon, polysilicon, platinum, and palladium futures will revert to pre-adjustment levels on the first trading day without price limits and continuous quotes [4] - The price limit for lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted to 13%, with speculative margin requirements set at 15% and hedging margin requirements at 14% [4]

本报讯2月9日，上期能源发布通知，调整原油等期货新上市合约交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。 通知称，原油2903合约、低硫燃料油2703合约、20号胶2702合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为9%，套保持仓 交易保证金比例调整为10%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为11%；国际铜2702合约的涨跌停板幅度调 整为10%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为11%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为12%。(齐宣) ...

新华财经北京2月9日电 上海国际能源交易中心发布通知，根据《上海国际能源交易中心关于2026年休 市安排的公告》（上海国际能源交易中心公告〔2025〕114号），现对春节期间有关工作安排如下： 二、自2026年2月12日（星期四）收盘结算时起，交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度调整如下： 国际铜期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为13%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为14%，一般持仓交 易保证金比例调整为15%； 原油、低硫燃料油、20号胶期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为12%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整 为13%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为14%； 转自：新华财经 一、2026年2月13日（星期五）晚上不进行夜盘交易。 2026年2月14日至2026年2月23日（星期一）休市。 2026年2月24日（星期二）08:55-09:00所有期货、期权合约进行集合竞价，当晚恢复夜盘交易。 三、2026年2月24日（星期二）交易后，自第一个未出现单边市的交易日收盘结算时，涨跌停板幅度和 交易保证金比例调整如下： 所有已上市期货合约的涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例恢复至原有水平。 关于涨跌停板和交易保证金的其他事项按《上海国际 ...

如遇《上海国际能源交易中心风险控制管理细则》第十六条规定情况，则在上述涨跌停板幅度、交易保 证金比例基础上调整。关于涨跌停板和交易保证金的其他事项按《上海国际能源交易中心风险控制管理 细则》及相关业务规则执行。 附件：相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例调整一览表 2月9日，上期能源发布关于调整原油等期货新上市合约交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度的通知。经研究 决定，下述合约上市时起，涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例调整如下： 原油SC2903、低硫燃料油LU2703、20号胶NR2702合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为9%，套保持仓交易保证 金比例调整为10%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为11%；国际铜BC2702合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为 10%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为11%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为12%。 ...