1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply - demand contradiction in the offset printing paper (double - offset paper) industry is prominent, and the industry's pessimistic sentiment is strong. The price of double - offset paper may have further room to decline [5][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Research Purpose - On August 15, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of offset printing paper futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which will be launched on September 10, 2025. In the current market environment, the research aims to understand how different links in the industrial chain view the listing of double - offset paper futures, their participation willingness, and their expectations for the future market of double - offset paper, helping investors gain insights and investment ideas [13]. 3.2. Research Core Conclusions - **Cost difference**: The production cost of double - offset paper varies greatly among different manufacturers and product qualities. The main raw material is wood pulp, accounting for about 70%. Due to profit pressure, enterprises increase the proportion of chemimechanical pulp. The production cash cost of current natural white double - offset paper is about 3800 - 4200 yuan/ton, and most enterprises can maintain a certain gross profit [14]. - **Demand shift**: The demand for paper in publishing orders has shifted backward this year. Factors such as improved printing efficiency, high inventory levels, and pessimistic market expectations have led to a delay in the start of autumn publishing tenders to mid - late April, and concentrated printing of autumn textbooks from July to August [16]. - **Supply - demand and profit**: The industry generally recognizes the over - supply and profit pressure. In the long - term, factors like a decrease in school - age population, the "One Textbook, One Supplementary Material" policy, and the popularity of electronic reading will reduce demand, while new production capacity is being added. In the short - term, prices may rebound slightly during the spring publishing tender season from October to November [18]. - **Divergent attitudes**: Different industrial players have different attitudes towards the listing of offset printing paper futures. Some large - scale paper mills will actively respond, while small and medium - sized paper mills are more cautious. Downstream enterprises are relatively conservative, and the willingness of long - position holders to take delivery is expected to be weak [22][24]. 3.3. Detailed Research Situation - **Double - offset paper production enterprise A**: Located in Henan, with a total pulp and paper production capacity of 110 - 120 tons/year. The production line was fully loaded in the first half of the year. The pulp ratio is 1/3 each for broad - leaf, coniferous, and chemimechanical pulp, with a self - supply rate of about 40% - 50%. Downstream orders are mainly for social printing. The long - term view is that prices will decline, but the short - term price may rebound in October - November [25][27][30]. - **Double - offset paper trading enterprise B**: Based in Henan, with a trading volume of about 40,000 tons this year. It purchases through long - term supply agreements. It believes that the "One Textbook, One Supplementary Material" policy has reduced the demand for private books, and it generally does not stock up [31][32][34]. - **Double - offset paper production enterprise C**: A Henan pulp and paper enterprise with a cultural paper production capacity of 180,000 tons/year. The starting rate in the first half of the year was about 80%. It uses coniferous and chemimechanical pulp, with self - sufficient chemimechanical pulp. Downstream orders are mainly for publishing. In the long - term, prices may fall below the cost line [36][37][42]. - **Double - offset paper production enterprise D**: A Shandong pulp and paper enterprise with a cultural paper production capacity of 500,000 tons/year. The production line was fully operational in the first half of the year. The proportion of chemimechanical pulp varies by product. Downstream customers are mainly dealers. In the long - term, demand will decline, but textbook revisions may bring short - term demand growth [43][44][49]. - **Double - offset paper production enterprise E**: A Shandong paper mill with a cultural paper production capacity of 200,000 tons/year. The capacity utilization rate is about 90%, and it stopped production in August for equipment transformation. It mainly uses external high - quality wood pulp. Downstream orders are mainly for social printing. In the next two years, the market is expected to be difficult, and the current price may fall further [50][51][55]. - **Material printing and publishing enterprise F**: A Shandong group with a paper and pulp trading volume of about 200,000 tons each. It purchases through competitive negotiations. Orders are mainly for publishing, and the "One Textbook, One Supplementary Material" policy has increased publishing orders. It hopes for stable paper prices [56][57][60]. 3.4. Investment Suggestions - Due to the prominent supply - demand contradiction in the double - offset paper industry and the strong pessimistic sentiment, enterprises may adjust the pulp ratio to reduce costs, which may lead to a decline in product quality rather than capacity optimization. Therefore, the price of double - offset paper may further decline [61].

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming launch of futures contracts for offset printing paper, indicating a significant development in the paper trading market [3][10]. - Offset printing paper is categorized as cultural paper, specifically non-coated paper, with double offset paper being a common type [4][5]. - The production process of double offset paper involves several stages, including pulping, paper making, sizing, and treatment, with variations depending on whether the pulp is self-produced or purchased [5][6]. Group 2 - The cost structure of double offset paper shows that wood pulp accounts for 70%-75% of the total cost, while chemical additives and energy costs make up smaller portions [8]. - The article outlines the characteristics of deliverable products, including weight, size, and brightness, with specific grades set for futures contracts [10][12]. - The quality standards for deliverable double offset paper are defined, including parameters such as thickness, opacity, and tensile strength, which must meet or exceed national standards [13][14]. Group 3 - Current market prices for various brands of double offset paper are provided, indicating a range of prices from 4750 to 5270 [15]. - The article emphasizes that the futures market price may initially align with the prices of deliverable products, particularly in a market where supply exceeds demand [14].