2025年08月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，趋势偏强，正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：三房巷新装置投产，正套 | 2 | | MEG：趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期偏强，中期仍在区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青：裂解续弱 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏强震荡 | 11 | | PP：短线反弹，中期震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期回调，关注近月仓单压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡有支撑 | 18 | | 尿素：弱势运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期偏强，中期偏空 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：进口成本存支撑，但供需缺乏明显改善 | 24 | | 丙烯：供需紧平衡，价格偏强整理 | 24 | | PVC：趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：夜盘高位震荡，短期强势延续 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：近月合约持续上涨，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 28 | | 集运指数 ...

2025年08月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：趋势偏强，正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：趋势偏强，正套 | 2 | | MEG：趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期偏强，中期仍在区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青：油价稍偏强，裂解愈回落 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏强震荡 | 11 | | PP：短线反弹，中期震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：偏多对待 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：短期震荡有支撑 | 17 | | 尿素：弱势运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期偏强，中期偏空 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：进口成本存支撑，但供需缺乏明显改善 | 23 | | 丙烯：供需紧平衡，价格偏强整理 | 23 | | PVC：短期震荡，趋势仍有压力 | 26 | | 燃料油：涨势明显，短期强势延续 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：相对高硫偏弱，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：弱势震荡 | ...

冠通期货研究咨询部 胶板印刷纸现货产业链和 期货基础知识介绍 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货 研究咨询部 2025年8月22日 胶版印刷纸期货将于9月10日上市交易 冠通期货研究咨询部 上海期货交易所将于2025年9月10日9时挂牌交易胶版印刷纸期货及 燃料油、石油沥青和纸浆期权，胶版印刷纸期权挂牌交易时间为2025年9 月10日21时。8月15日，中国证监会发布通知，同意上海期货交易所胶版 印刷纸期货及期权，燃料油、石油沥青和纸浆期权注册。这标志着上期 所即将上市全球首个文化用纸金融衍生品，同时加速实现成熟期货品种 期权覆盖。 冠通期货研究咨询部 造纸工业是与国民经济发展和人民生活息息相关的重要基础原材料产业。胶版印刷纸则是文化、印刷用纸的典型代表纸种，广泛应用 于诸多领域，具有市场体量大、标准化程度高、价格波动大等特点。同时我国作为全球最大的胶版印刷纸生产国和消费国，造纸行业产能 持续扩展，胶版印刷纸生产企业与经销商都面临价格、销售持续疲软的状态，企业经营压力增大，总体不利于企业稳定经营，因此胶版印 刷纸期货的上市至关重要，以满足产业可持续发展需要与避险需求。 期货市场中胶版印刷纸品种的上市，将为产业链提供 ...

2025年08月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 对二甲苯：趋势偏强，正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：装置计划外停车，正套 | 2 | | MEG：趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：区间运行 | 6 | | 沥青：原油略强，裂解愈弱 | 8 | | LLDPE：区间震荡 | 11 | | PP：趋势偏弱，但低位追空要谨慎 | 12 | | 烧碱：偏多对待 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：区间震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：仍在区间震荡内，但上方压力逐步增加 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：压缩利润 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：宏观情绪溢价支撑，进口成本预期上涨 | 24 | | 丙烯：供需收紧，价格存支撑 | 24 | | PVC：短期震荡，趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：震荡走势为主，短线转强 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：偏弱怕盘整，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 28 | | 集运指数（欧 ...

2025年08月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本支撑偏弱，但终端需求改善，月差仍偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：弱现实强预期，月差反套 | 2 | | MEG：本周到港偏低，基差走强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短线回调，中期仍为区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青：出货未见好，原油难偏多 | 8 | | LLDPE：区间震荡 | 11 | | PP：趋势偏弱，但低位追空要谨慎 | 12 | | 烧碱：偏多对待，但需注意近月仓单情况 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 17 | | 尿素：短期消息面驱动，上方空间收窄 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：近月挤仓风险仍在 | 22 | | 丙烯：成本支撑偏弱 | 22 | | PVC：趋势偏弱 | 25 | | 燃料油：弱势震荡走势为主，短期波动缩小 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅盘整，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡整理，1 ...

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for various commodities. Core Views - The overall market for energy and chemical commodities shows a mixed trend, with some commodities in a short - term or mid - term oscillation, while others face upward or downward pressure [2]. - The supply and demand relationship, cost factors, and policy environment are the main factors affecting the price trends of different commodities. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply increases while demand decreases, but terminal demand improvement may limit the downside space. The processing fee is under downward pressure. China's PX operating rate is 84.3% (+2.3%), and Asia's is 74% (+0.4%) [10]. - **PTA**: Supply is marginally tightened, and the price rebounded at the end of the session. The 9 - 1 spread is recommended for reverse arbitrage. Polyester operating rate is expected to increase to 91.5% in September [11]. - **MEG**: Supply increases, and it is in a range - bound market. The 9 - 1 spread should be operated within the - 50~0 range, and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended [11]. Rubber - Rubber is in an oscillatory state. The inventory in Qingdao area decreased slightly, and the cost support from overseas raw material prices weakened. The market lacks a clear direction [12][15]. Synthetic Rubber - The upside space is narrowing. In the short - term, the support from butadiene weakens, while in the medium - term, it is in a range - bound market due to policy support and low - chasing reluctance [16][18]. Asphalt - The shipment is not good, and it is difficult for crude oil to be bullish. The refinery operating rate decreased to 35.61%, and the inventory increased by 3.2% [19][34]. LLDPE - It is in a range - bound market. Cost decreases, supply pressure increases, and demand will improve gradually. Inventory provides some support [36][37]. PP - The trend is weak, but short - selling at low levels should be cautious. Cost is weak, demand has no obvious highlights, and supply pressure increases [40][41]. Caustic Soda - It should be treated bullishly, but attention should be paid to the near - month warehouse receipts. Demand is expanding, and export support is strong, but supply may be affected by the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries [44]. Pulp - Pulp is in an oscillatory state. Supply lacks elasticity, port inventory is at a medium - high level, and demand is weak [47][50]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The market trading atmosphere is average, and the price is slightly weak [55]. Methanol - The near - end pressure is large, and it is in a weak operation. Port inventory accumulates rapidly, but there is support at low levels due to policy and fundamental factors [58][61]. Urea - Urea is in a range - bound operation. Inventory increases, demand is slow, but short - selling at low levels is reluctant due to policy and market uncertainty [63][65]. Styrene - Styrene is in a profit - compression state. It is mainly oscillatory in the short - term, with downstream inventory accumulating and the peak - season restocking power weakening [66][67]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changes little. Supply increases, and demand is average. It is expected to be lightly stable and oscillatory in the short - term [68][70]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term valuation is reasonable, and it is in an oscillatory state. - **Propylene**: Supply and demand tighten, and the price has certain support [72]. PVC - PVC is in a weak trend. The anti - dumping tax in India affects exports, supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates [79]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The market is weakly oscillatory, and the short - term weakness continues. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility intensifies, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the external market is temporarily stable [82]. Container Freight Index (European Route) - It is in an oscillatory consolidation state, and 10 short positions can be held at discretion. Freight rates show different trends, with European routes decreasing and US - West routes increasing [84].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch futures and options for coated printing paper and related products on September 10, 2025, aiming to provide tools for price risk management in the cultural paper industry [1][2]. Industry Overview - Coated printing paper is a significant type of cultural and printing paper, primarily made from bleached wood pulp, widely used in books and notebooks, characterized by a large market size, high standardization, and significant price volatility [1]. - China is the largest producer and consumer of coated printing paper globally, with a production volume of 9.48 million tons and apparent consumption of 8.71 million tons in 2024 [1]. Market Demand and Impact - The introduction of coated printing paper futures and options aligns with the core needs of industry chain enterprises to hedge against price fluctuations and secure operating profits [2]. - The new financial derivatives will fill a gap in the cultural paper market, creating a "pulp-paper" integrated risk management chain, helping companies manage raw material cost fluctuations and product price uncertainties [2]. Pricing Mechanism - The transparent price discovery function of the new products is expected to serve as an "anchor" for the industry, enhancing the efficiency of spot pricing and guiding companies in optimizing production plans [2]. - The market size for coated printing paper in China is nearly 50 billion yuan [2]. Trading Specifications - The trading unit for coated printing paper futures has been adjusted from 20 tons to 40 tons per contract to better match the purchasing habits of downstream printing plants and mainstream transportation methods in spot trading [3]. - The delivery unit will also be standardized to 40 tons per warehouse receipt, aligning with the new trading unit [3].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The approval of futures and options for various paper products by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) indicates a growing interest in the paper market, particularly in pulp and related commodities [1]. Group 1: Market Developments - The CSRC has approved the registration of futures and options for coated printing paper, fuel oil, asphalt, and pulp at the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1]. - As of August 15, the warehouse futures inventory of pulp was 235,114 tons, a decrease of 39 tons from the previous trading day, while the factory inventory remained stable at 19,240 tons [1]. - By August 14, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports for pulp in China reached 2.099 million tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous period, reflecting a 2.5% rise [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Southwest Futures reports that expectations of supply contraction are driving market sentiment, with major international pulp producers like Suzano and Bracell announcing production cuts or shifts [2]. - External pricing has increased by $20 per ton, providing cost support for the current pulp market, although demand improvements are uncertain [2]. - The transition from the off-peak to peak season in the downstream market is leading paper mills to cautiously pass on cost pressures, but high finished paper inventories and low profit margins are limiting the rebound potential for pulp prices [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - New Lake Futures indicates that while there is clear cost support for pulp prices, the slight increase in inventory this week has reduced pressure compared to earlier periods [3]. - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive, suggesting that pulp prices may maintain a slightly stronger oscillation, although terminal consumption is lagging, limiting the upside potential [3]. - A strategy of low-margin positioning may be advisable given the current market conditions [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures on August 15, 2025, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, with different products showing different trends such as weakening, oscillating, or having support [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand pressure increases, with a weakening trend. On August 14, the price dropped to $824 per ton. Suggest focusing on terminal order repairs starting from late August, and PXN has short - term support [5][8][13]. - **PTA**: Processing fees are at a low level. Attention should be paid to unplanned production cuts. The polyester start - up rate has increased to 89.4%. It is recommended to hold a mid - term long MEG and short PTA position, and consider a 9 - 1 month spread positive arbitrage [5][10][13]. - **MEG**: The trend is weakly oscillating. There are two sets of MEG devices in East China with a total annual capacity of 1.9 million tons that are currently shut down for 1 - 2 days. It is recommended to hold a mid - term long MEG and short PTA position, operate the 9 - 1 spread within the - 50 to 0 range, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [5][10][13]. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The trading volume has increased, and the position of the top 20 members' net short has decreased. The finished product inventory of semi - steel tire enterprises remains high, and the order situation is weak [14][15][17]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate within the week. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports has increased, and the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises has decreased. In the short term, there is a correction, and in the medium term, it oscillates within the valuation range [19][20][21]. Asphalt - The shipment in East China has improved locally. The trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The weekly output has decreased slightly, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [22][29][35]. LLDPE - The trend still faces pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The macro environment has limited changes, the cost has decreased due to falling oil prices, the supply pressure is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [36][37][39]. PP - Short - term short - chasing needs to be cautious, and the trend still faces pressure. The trend strength is 0. The cost is weak, the demand has no obvious bright spots, and the supply pressure is increasing, but there is uncertainty in the cost [41][42][43]. Caustic Soda - It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The trend strength is 1. The cost support is strong, and there is an expectation of demand in the peak season, especially with the expected production of 3.6 million tons of alumina capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year [45][47][48]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is 0. The price is affected by supply contraction expectations, tightened domestic circulation sources, and marginal improvement in demand, but the rebound space is limited [50][52][53]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend strength is - 1. The domestic float glass price is weakly stable, and the downstream is more cautious in purchasing due to the decline in the futures market [56][57]. Methanol - It is under oscillating pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the port market is weakly oscillating, while the inland market has continued to rise [59][62][63]. Urea - It is under oscillating pressure. The trend strength is 0. The enterprise inventory has increased, and the short - term downward pressure is due to the decline in the commodity index and increased fundamental pressure [64][66][67]. Styrene - The profit is being compressed. The trend strength is 0. The downstream demand for styrene is weak, but pure benzene is temporarily strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to positions that compress styrene profit [68][69]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The trend strength is - 1. The supply has increased slightly, and the downstream demand is stable, with a light and stable oscillation expected in the short term [71][73][74]. LPG - The disk valuation is low, and attention should be paid to the risk of position reduction. The trend strength is 0. The expected price of Saudi CP has decreased, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [77][82][83]. Propylene - Supply and demand are tightening, and the price has certain support. The trend strength is 0. The PDH start - up rate has increased, and the spread between propylene and relevant contracts has changed [78][82]. PVC - It is expected to oscillate weakly. The trend strength is - 1. The industry profit has expanded, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may continue to short the chlor - alkali profit [85][86][87]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session oscillates, and the short - term weakness continues. The trend strength is 0. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fluctuation intensifies, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. The trend strength is 0 [88]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in oscillating consolidation, and 10 short positions can be held at discretion. The freight rate index has declined, and the trading volume and position of relevant futures have changed [90].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and analysis for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Different commodities show different trends such as price fluctuations, range - bound trading, and strength or weakness in market sentiment [2]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price is affected by tariff - related issues, with a trend intensity of 1. The price of Comex gold 2510 was 3407.00 with a 0.22% daily increase [2][6][11]. - **Silver**: It shows a slight rebound, with a trend intensity of 1. The price of Comex silver 2510 was 38.550 with a 1.61% daily increase [2][6][11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks obvious driving forces and the price fluctuates. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 79,380 with a 0.46% daily increase [2][13][15]. - **Zinc**: The price is under pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22600, down 0.13% [2][16][17]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot market weakens, and the price is under pressure. The trend intensity is 0. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16930, up 0.09% [2][19]. - **Tin**: Trades within a range, with a trend intensity of - 1. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 269,820, down 0.14% [2][21][26]. - **Aluminum**: Trades within a range. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20790. Alumina shows a slight decline, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][27]. - **Nickel**: The support logic at the ore end weakens, and the logic at the smelting end limits its upward potential. The trend intensity is 0. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 122,340 [2][30][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The multi - empty game intensifies, and the steel price fluctuates. The trend intensity is 0. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,130 [2][30][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The auction price is slightly lower than the market price, and the range - bound trend may continue. The trend intensity is 0. The 2509 contract closed at 85,040 [2][35][37]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment cools down, with a trend intensity of - 1. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,600 [2][38][41]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to news - related disturbances, with a trend intensity of - 1. The PS2511 contract had certain trading volume and price changes [2][39][41]. - **Iron Ore**: Fluctuates repeatedly, with a trend intensity of 0. The 12601 contract closed at 795.0, down 0.75% [2][43][44]. - **Rebar**: Trades in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. The RB2510 contract closed at 3,222, down 0.92% [2][46][50]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Trades in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. The HC2510 contract closed at 3,451, down 0.66% [2][47][50]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: The sector sentiment is weak, and they trade in a wide range. The trend intensities of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicate are both 0 [2][51][53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Show a relatively strong upward - fluctuating trend. The trend intensities of both are 0. The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1245, down 5.2%, and the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1737, down 4.1% [2][54][56]. - **Log**: Fluctuates repeatedly, with a trend intensity of 0. The 2509 contract closed at 813, down 1.4% [2][57][60]. - **Para - Xylene**: The supply - demand pressure increases, and the trend is weak [2][63]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is at a low level, and attention should be paid to unplanned production cuts [2][63]. - **MEG**: It is recommended to go long on MEG and short on PTA/PX [2][63]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The origin has strong supply and demand, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans is strong, and soybean oil fluctuates at a high level [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: The price of US soybeans rises, and Dalian soybean meal may follow a relatively strong upward - fluctuating trend [2]. - **Soybean**: Corrects and fluctuates [2]. - **Corn**: Fluctuates [2]. - **Sugar**: Rises while fluctuating [2]. - **Cotton**: The expectation of a bumper new crop limits the increase in futures prices [2]. - **Egg**: Adjusts while fluctuating [2]. - **Live Pig**: The spot market is weak [2]. - **Peanut**: The near - term contract is stronger than the far - term contract [2].