2025年11月24日 | 对二甲苯：短期不追高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边震荡市，不追高 | 2 | | MEG：供需格局改善，空单减持 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：估值区间内弱势运行 | 6 | | 沥青：跟随原油弱势运行 | 8 | | LLDPE：进口报盘或有减少，裂解负荷有扰动 | 10 | | PP：短期不追空，中期趋势仍有压力 | 11 | | 烧碱：趋势仍有压力 | 12 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：震荡偏弱，下方空间收窄 | 16 | | 尿素：震荡运行 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：下游需求分化，关注成本变动 | 22 | | 丙烯：上涨驱动转弱，成本支撑偏强 | 22 | | PVC：不宜追空，低位震荡 | 25 | | 燃料油：下跌趋势重现，短期或强于低硫 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：弱势延续，外盘现货高低硫价差转而收缩 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡整理 | 27 | | 短纤：短期 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of pulp futures prices is expected to be volatile or weakly volatile, with the price center slightly shifting downwards. Attention should be paid to the impacts brought by changes in supply and demand [2][3]. - In the short - term trading logic, the overall idea should be to short at high levels, but beware of the possibility of price rebounds at low levels. In the long - term trading, although the impact of needle pulp warehouse receipts has been mostly priced in, there are uncertainties in the supply of long - term warehouse receipts, which brings certain benefits. The Fed's continuous interest - rate cut process may stop, and the macro sentiment is relatively weak, while there may be favorable policy factors [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - The core influencing factors this week are the poor downstream bidding situation and the accumulation of port inventories. The poor bidding situation has affected the confidence of paper enterprises and prices. The increase in Chinese port inventories by 63,000 tons has also put pressure on futures prices. In addition, some pulp mills are expected to increase production in the future, which will increase the supply pressure. The downstream paper - making operating rate has declined, and demand has weakened. The previous increase in pulp futures prices was also affected by capital, and the current decline is a return to a relatively normal price [2][3]. - **Trading - type Strategy Recommendations** - Futures trading can consider temporary waiting and watching, or short - term shorting at high levels. Options strategies can also wait and watch temporarily. The 12 - 01 backwardation spread arbitrage can continue to be held [15]. - **Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations** - For enterprises with high inventories of finished products (needle pulp/offset printing paper) who are worried about price drops, they can short pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, or sell call options to collect premiums. For papermaking enterprises with low inventories that want to purchase according to orders, they can buy pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, or sell put options to collect premiums [9]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information** - Some pulp mills are under maintenance, and European port pulp inventories decreased in September [11]. - **Negative Information** - Port inventories have accumulated, the Thurderbay pulp mill and the US Woodland pulp mill will switch to producing needle pulp, and the bidding situation of paper enterprises is poor [16]. - **Spot Transaction Information** - The report provides detailed price information on various types of pulp, including futures prices, domestic spot prices, and domestic finished - paper average prices, as well as their price changes [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation** - The SP2601 contract fluctuated widely this week. Both long and short positions showed signs of slight reduction. The RSI indicator rose and is still in the buying range but is approaching the neutral range, with a high possibility of continued short - term fluctuations [19]. - **Basis and Spread Structure** - The 12 - 06 contract maintains a C - structure, and the 07 - 11 contract is in a B - structure. The suppression of needle pulp warehouse receipts continues, and the current inventory reduction is slow. Attention can be paid to the 12 - 01 spread backwardation arbitrage [22]. 3.4 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Inventory** - On November 21st, the inventory was 2.173 million tons (+63,000 tons), showing a significant increase compared to last week. The domestic monthly import volume of needle pulp in late September was 760,000 tons, showing a rebound from August. The global pulp shipment volume to China at the end of August increased by 5.7% month - on - month, which will put pressure on subsequent pulp inventory reduction. The inventories of downstream finished papers in enterprises are continuously accumulating, and the profit margins have declined this week, restricting the raw - material replenishment actions of downstream enterprises [26]. - **Supply** - It includes domestic production volume and import volume. The report provides historical data and seasonal charts of domestic pulp production and import volume [51][53]. - **Demand** - It includes the capacity utilization rate, production volume, export volume, and consumption volume of finished papers. The report provides historical data and seasonal charts of these aspects [60][64][68][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [2]. - Silver: In a state of oscillatory adjustment [2]. - Copper: Risk sentiment remains weak, and prices are oscillating [2][10]. - Zinc: Subject to macro - level disturbances [2][13]. - Lead: Reduced inventory restricts price decline [2][16]. - Tin: Prices have fallen from a high level [2][19]. - Aluminum: Affected by macro - level disturbances; Alumina: Ranging within a certain interval; Casting aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support levels and are under pressure to move in an oscillatory manner; Stainless steel: Weak market reality suppresses steel prices, but the downside is limited [2][27][28]. - Lithium carbonate: The speed of inventory reduction has slowed down, and a market sentiment cooldown may lead to a price correction [2][33]. - Industrial silicon: The market shows a weak pattern; Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the lower support level [2][36][37]. - Iron ore: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is relatively high [2][40]. - Rebar: Oscillating weakly; Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating weakly [2][43]. - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation; Manganese silicon: Wide - range oscillation [2][48]. - Coke: Wide - range oscillation; Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2][52]. - Logs: Repeated oscillations [2][54]. - Para - xylene: Supply contraction squeezes downstream profits; PTA: In a single - sided oscillatory market, avoid chasing high prices; MEG: New device launches lead to continued inventory accumulation, and supply pressure persists [2][28]. - Rubber: Oscillating; Synthetic rubber: Oscillating [2][31][33]. - Asphalt: Following the weak trend of crude oil [2][35]. - LLDPE: Agricultural demand may be approaching its peak, pay attention to supply pressure; PP: Do not chase short - term short positions, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend; Caustic soda: There is still pressure in the trend [2][37][38][39]. - Pulp: Oscillating [2][40]. - Glass: The price of original glass is stable [2][42]. - Methanol: Oscillating weakly, with the downside space narrowing; Urea: Short - term oscillation has support; Styrene: Short - term oscillation; Soda ash: Little change in the spot market [2][43][45][47][48]. - LPG: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term; Propylene: Spot prices are trending strongly, and the futures market is oscillating at the bottom; PVC: Do not chase short positions, oscillating at a low level; Fuel oil: Short - term strength, continuous rebound at night; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The weak trend continues, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has slightly declined; Container shipping index (European line): In an oscillatory market; Short - fiber: Short - term oscillatory market; Bottle chips: Short - term oscillatory market, with processing fees being compressed; Offset printing paper: Oscillating at a low level; Pure benzene: Overseas gasoline blending has started, mainly oscillating in the short term; Palm oil: The rebound height is limited, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas; Soybean oil: There is no driving force for a breakthrough, mainly oscillating within a certain range; Soybean meal: Oscillating; Soybean: Oscillating; Corn: Oscillating; Sugar: Consolidating at a low level; Cotton: Futures prices maintain an oscillatory trend; Eggs: The volume of culled hens has increased; Pigs: The expectation of temperature drop has materialized, and pressure is gradually being released; Peanuts: Pay attention to the spot market [2][5][49] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing prices of domestic and international futures contracts showed declines, trading volumes and positions changed, and ETF positions decreased. For silver, futures prices also declined, trading volumes decreased, and positions increased. Inventory levels of both decreased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US September non - farm payrolls data was mixed, with unemployment reaching a four - year high. The number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased last week, while the number of continued claims reached a four - year high. Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [6][9]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices showed minor fluctuations, trading volumes and positions changed, inventory levels varied, and spot - futures spreads also changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US employment data was mixed, and the Netherlands suspended intervention in Nexperia. Peru's copper production increased, a copper mine project in Chile obtained environmental approval, China's copper product output decreased, and import and export data for copper - related products changed [10][12]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices declined slightly, trading volumes decreased, positions increased, inventory levels changed, and various price spreads and premiums also changed [13]. - **News**: The US September non - farm report showed mixed signals in the employment market, which may complicate the Fed's December decision [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions declined, inventory levels changed, and price spreads and import - related data also changed [16]. - **News**: Similar to other metals, it was affected by the US employment data [17]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, inventory levels varied, and spot prices and price spreads changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In addition to the US employment data, there were reports about Trump's AI policy and the White House's pressure on Congress regarding AI chip exports [21][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: For electrolytic aluminum, futures prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory levels, and price spreads changed. For alumina, relevant data also showed certain trends. For casting aluminum alloy, prices and inventory levels changed [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, and there were differences within the Fed regarding interest rate cuts [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, and various industrial chain prices and spreads also changed [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mine was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for nickel imports, and there were regulations and policies in the Indonesian mining industry. There were also trade - related threats from the US [28][30][31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventory levels of lithium carbonate contracts changed, and the prices of related products in the industrial chain also showed certain trends [33]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, and production and inventory data for lithium carbonate changed [34]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and price spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon changed, and spot prices, profits, and inventory levels also varied [37]. - **Macro and Industry News**: A 200 - megawatt photovoltaic project in Xinjiang was put into operation [38]. Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices declined slightly, and price spreads changed [40]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's industrial added value data was released [41]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices declined, and price spreads changed [43]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Weekly production, inventory, and apparent demand data for steel products were released, and national steel production data from January to October was also provided [44][46]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices and price spreads also changed [48]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Price information for ferrosilicon and manganese silicon was released, and manganese ore import data was provided [49][50]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices remained stable, and price spreads changed [52]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply during the heating season [53].

Report Information - Report date: November 21, 2025 [1][4][13][14][19][22][25][35][39][43][48][53][57][63][67][69][72][80][83][85] - Report title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Energy and Chemicals [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including trends such as supply - demand changes, price fluctuations, and trading strategies for each commodity [2][4][10][11][12] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply is expected to be tight, with a rising unilateral price. Suggest 5 - 9 month - spread positive arbitrage, long PX and short PTA/PF/PR, and long PX and short pure benzene for hedging. The terminal polyester demand is weakening marginally [10][11] - **PTA**: The upside space may be limited, do not chase high. Cost provides support, and the month - spread view is revised to positive arbitrage [11] - **MEG**: The medium - term trend is weak. Short at high prices and maintain reverse arbitrage for month - spreads. Supply is expected to increase, and there is an oversupply situation in December [12] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. The supply side provides support, but the demand side from tire factories is weak, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally [13][14][17][18] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. Short - term prices are supported by the rubber sector, but the medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure [19][20][21] Asphalt - It follows the weak trend of crude oil. The production has decreased this week, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [22][34] LLDPE - Agricultural demand may be reaching its peak. Pay attention to supply pressure. The raw material cost is under pressure, and the downstream demand is supported by rigid needs, but the mid - and downstream inventory - holding willingness has weakened [35][36] PP - Do not short in the short term, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The supply is high, and the demand peak has passed. Low profits limit the downward space [39][40] Caustic Soda - The trend is still under pressure. High production and high inventory continue, and the demand side has limited support. The cost support is weak, and the long - term negative feedback from alumina production cuts may occur [43][45] Pulp - It is in a volatile state. The price fluctuation is affected by factors such as futures stability, weak demand, and high inventory [48][50][52] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The market trading atmosphere is general, and the price has been adjusted downward in some regions [53][54] Methanol - It is in a weakly volatile state with a narrowing downward space. The supply is high, the demand from the MTO industry is under pressure, and the cost - side pricing logic weight increases slightly [57][60][62] Urea - It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the fourth - batch export quota and mid - stream replenishment may relieve the pressure [63][65][66] Styrene - It is in a short - term volatile state. The short - term aromatic hydrocarbon blending oil logic continues, and the pure benzene market has a weak chemical reality and a strong blending oil expectation [67][68] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The enterprise production is stable, and the downstream demand is based on low - price rigid needs [69][70] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [72] - **Propylene**: The spot trend is strong, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom [72] PVC - Do not short at low levels. It is in a low - level volatile state. The futures price is at a historical low, and some devices may cut production. However, the high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change in the short term [80][81] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has strengthened in the short term, with a continuous rebound at night [83] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weak trend continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has slightly decreased [83] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a volatile state [85] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term volatile state [31] - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term volatile state, and the processing fee is compressed [31] Offset Printing Paper - It is in a low - level volatile state [32] Pure Benzene - It is mainly volatile in the short term. The overseas blending oil market is starting, and the chemical fundamentals are weak [34][68]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report provides daily outlooks for various energy - chemical futures on November 20, 2025, including trends such as supply - demand analysis, price movements, and short - to - medium - term trading suggestions for each commodity [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Aromatics and Downstream Products - **Para - xylene (PX)**: Supply is tightening, squeezing downstream profit margins. Overseas aromatics blending demand is rising, and Korean GS disproportionation unit may cut production. It is suggested to conduct 5 - 9 spread positive arbitrage, long PX and short PTA/PF/PR, and long PX and short pure benzene for hedging. The terminal polyester demand is weakening marginally [2][10]. - **PTA**: It is in a single - sided oscillatory market, and chasing high prices is not recommended. Cost provides support, and the spread view is revised to positive arbitrage. The inventory build - up pressure is relieved due to extended maintenance of some plants and new polyester device startups [2][10]. - **MEG**: The medium - term trend is weak. It is advisable to short on rallies and maintain reverse spread. New plants are starting up, inventory is accumulating, and the supply pressure persists. The demand from polyester is expected to decline in December [2][11]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is oscillating. Weather factors support the supply side, but the inventory is in a seasonal build - up cycle, limiting the upside of rubber prices [2][15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is oscillating with support. The overall synthetic rubber spot trading has improved, and the natural rubber market is firm. However, the medium - term pressure remains large [2][19]. Asphalt - **Asphalt**: It is in a narrow - range oscillation. The December domestic asphalt refinery production is expected to decline, the capacity utilization rate has decreased this week, and the shipment volume has increased in some regions [2][32]. Polypropylene (PP) - **PP**: In the short term, short - selling should be avoided. In the medium term, there is still downward pressure. The supply is high, but the short - term trading has improved due to low prices. The long - term factors include high supply, cost pressure, and weak downstream demand [2][34]. Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The trend still has pressure. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand from non - aluminum downstream and exports is weak. The cost support is limited [2][39]. Pulp - **Pulp**: It is oscillating. The market supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, with high inventory pressure and weak downstream demand [2][45]. Glass - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The market trading atmosphere is generally weak, and the prices in some regions have declined [2][47]. Methanol - **Methanol**: It is oscillating weakly, and the downside space is narrowing. The supply is high, the MTO industry profit is compressed, and the macro - driving force is weakening [2][55]. Urea - **Urea**: It is oscillating with support in the short term. The fourth - batch export quota may relieve the factory's inventory pressure, and the mid - stream is in the peak replenishment period [2][60]. Styrene - **Styrene**: Short - term attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene. It is in a short - term oscillation. The pure benzene market is affected by both weak chemical fundamentals and strong overseas blending expectations [2][62]. Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The enterprise device operation is stable, and the downstream demand is flat. The short - term market is expected to oscillate steadily [2][64]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The supply - demand expectation is tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term. - **Propylene**: The spot trend is strong, and the futures is oscillating at the bottom. The PDH and related downstream industry operating rates have changed [2][66]. PVC - **PVC**: The trend still has pressure. The supply is sufficient, the demand expectation is weak, and the "alkali - compensating - chlorine" profit pattern is hard to sustain [2][73]. Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session continued to correct and is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakness persists, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market remains at a high level [2][76]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is in an oscillatory market. The freight rates of European and US - West routes have shown different trends, and the trading volume and open interest of related futures contracts have changed [2][78].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most of the industries are rated with a neutral trend strength (0), including p-xylene, PTA, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, paper pulp, glass, urea, benzene, LPG, and propylene [11][15][19] - Some industries are rated with a weak trend strength (-1), including MEG, PP, caustic soda, methanol, soda ash, PVC, fuel oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil [13][41][46] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For various energy and chemical products, the report provides trend judgments and investment suggestions based on their respective fundamentals, including supply and demand, inventory, and market news [11][12][13] - Some products are expected to be in a volatile market, while others face supply pressure or have potential for price support [20][21][65] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: It is in a unilateral volatile market, and there is limited upside space. Do not chase high prices. Maintain reverse arbitrage operations for the 1-5 spread [11] - **PTA**: The upside space may be limited, and do not chase high prices. The polyester load will fluctuate, and there will be a cumulative inventory pattern in the future. Maintain reverse arbitrage operations for the 1-5 spread [12] - **MEG**: The medium-term trend is weak. Conduct short positions on rallies and maintain reverse arbitrage for the spread [13] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a volatile operation [14] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price is expected to be supported in the short term due to the improvement in the synthetic rubber industry chain and the support from the natural rubber sector [20][21] Asphalt - It is in a narrow-range volatile market. The domestic asphalt refinery production is expected to decline in December [22][34] LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Agricultural demand may peak, and attention should be paid to supply pressure [35] - **PP**: Do not chase short positions in the short term, but the medium-term trend still faces pressure [39][40] Caustic Soda and PVC - **Caustic Soda**: The trend still faces pressure due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [43][45] - **PVC**: The market has a high production and high inventory structure, and the trend still faces pressure [80] Paper Pulp and Glass - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a volatile operation. The supply pressure persists, and the demand is weak [48][50] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [52] Methanol and Urea - **Methanol**: It is in a weak operation due to high supply and weak demand [56][59] - **Urea**: The price is expected to be supported in the short term due to the potential transfer of export quota inventory and the peak of midstream replenishment [65][66] Benzene and Soda Ash - **Benzene**: Pay attention to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short-term volatile market [67] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, and the short-term market is expected to be stable and volatile [69][70] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The supply and demand are expected to tighten, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [73] - **Propylene**: The spot price is strong, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom [73] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The short-term weakness reappears, and it is still weaker than low-sulfur fuel oil [83] - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night trading price declined, and the price difference between high and low sulfur in the overseas spot market reached a high point for the year [83] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a volatile market [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the trend judgments and fundamental data of various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, on November 19, 2025. These judgments are based on factors such as inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - industry news [2][5]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view. Yesterday, the prices of domestic and foreign gold futures showed different trends, and the inventory of Comex gold decreased [6]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The trend strength is 0. The prices of domestic and foreign silver futures also had different performances, and the inventory of Comex silver decreased significantly [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The increase in domestic and foreign inventories has put pressure on prices. The trend strength is 0. Peru's copper production increased in September, while China's copper product output in October decreased [10][12]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound shock. The trend strength is 0. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures declined, and LME zinc inventory increased [13][14]. - **Lead**: The decrease in inventory limits the price decline. The trend strength is 0. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures fell, and both domestic and LME lead inventories decreased [17]. - **Tin**: It has fallen from a high level. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a bearish view. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures decreased slightly, and the inventory of Shanghai tin decreased [20]. - **Aluminum**: It has slightly stabilized. The trend strength is 0. The price of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, and the inventory of LME aluminum decreased [23]. - **Alumina**: It is in a range - bound shock. The trend strength is 0. The price of alumina decreased, and the inventory data showed different trends [23]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price has broken through the support level and is under pressure to fluctuate. The trend strength is 0. The prices of domestic and foreign nickel futures declined, and some nickel - related news affected the market [26][27]. - **Stainless Steel**: The weak reality suppresses the steel price, but the downward space is limited. The trend strength is 0. The price of stainless - steel futures decreased, and the market was affected by multiple factors [27]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It may have a short - term correction. The trend strength is - 1. The prices of carbonate lithium futures decreased, and the inventory of warehouse receipts decreased [32][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Organic silicon may cut production to support prices in the future. The trend strength is 0. The price of industrial silicon futures decreased, and the inventory of industrial silicon decreased [37][38]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in a weak shock pattern. The trend strength is - 1. The price of polysilicon futures decreased, and the inventory of polysilicon increased [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The trend strength is - 1. The price of iron - ore futures increased slightly, and the prices of imported and domestic iron ores decreased [41]. - **Rebar**: It is in a wide - range shock. The trend strength is 0. The price of rebar futures increased, and the inventory of rebar decreased [44][45]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It is in a wide - range shock. The trend strength is 0. The price of hot - rolled coil futures increased slightly, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased slightly [45]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the alloys are making up for the decline. The trend strength of both is - 1. The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures decreased, and the price differences showed different trends [51][52]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are in a wide - range shock. The trend strength of both is 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures decreased, and the prices of spot coking coal and coke were stable [55]. - **Log**: It is in a repeated shock. The trend strength is 0. The prices of log futures showed different trends, and the inventory data was not provided [57][58]. - **Para - Xylene and PTA**: Both are in a single - sided shock market, and it is not recommended to chase high. The trend strength is not provided. The prices of para - xylene and PTA futures decreased [62][64]. - **MEG**: There is still supply pressure, and the trend is weak. The trend strength is not provided. The price of MEG futures decreased [62][64]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The short - term negative factors have been fully reflected, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas. The trend strength is not provided [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans has stabilized, and soybean oil is in a relatively strong shock. The trend strength is not provided [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1**: Both are in an adjustment shock. The trend strength is not provided [5]. - **Corn**: It is in a shock operation. The trend strength is not provided [5]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range adjustment. The trend strength is not provided [5]. - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses the futures price. The trend strength is not provided [5]. - **Egg**: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse - spread pattern. The trend strength is not provided [5]. - **Live Pig**: The expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed, and the pressure is gradually being released. The trend strength is not provided [5]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend strength is not provided [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report presents the market trends and analysis of various commodities on November 18, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend and influencing factors [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have declined. The trend strength is neutral [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot have also decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The rise of the US dollar has put pressure on prices. The prices of domestic and international copper futures have fallen. The trend strength is neutral [2][9]. - **Zinc**: It has shown a slight decline. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures have different trends. The trend strength is neutral [2][12]. - **Lead**: The significant increase in overseas inventories has put pressure on prices. The prices of domestic and international lead futures have decreased. The trend strength is slightly bearish [2][16]. - **Tin**: It has fallen from a high level. The prices of domestic and international tin futures have declined. The trend strength is slightly bearish [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: There is pressure above. The prices of domestic and international aluminum futures have decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][23]. - **Alumina**: It is in a range - bound shock. The price of domestic alumina futures has decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][23]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price has broken through the support level and is under pressure to fluctuate. The prices of domestic and international nickel futures have decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The weak reality suppresses the steel price, but there is limited downside. The price of domestic stainless - steel futures has increased slightly. The trend strength is neutral [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market sentiment is positive, and it is relatively strong in the short term. The prices of domestic carbonate lithium futures have increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][32]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The warehouse receipts are being cleared, and there is strong support at the bottom. The price of domestic industrial silicon futures has increased slightly. The trend strength is neutral [2][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the market information from the meeting. The price of domestic polysilicon futures has decreased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][36]. - **Iron Ore**: It is fluctuating repeatedly. The price of domestic iron ore futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][39]. - **Rebar**: It has rebounded from the previous over - decline and is in a strong shock. The price of domestic rebar futures has increased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It has rebounded from the previous over - decline and is in a strong shock. The price of domestic hot - rolled coil futures has increased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The main production areas continue to reduce production, and it is in a strong shock. The price of domestic silicon ferrosilicon futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][48]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Affected by the sector sentiment, it is in a strong shock. The price of domestic manganese silicide futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][49]. - **Coke**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price of domestic coke futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][53]. - **Coking Coal**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price of domestic coking coal futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][53]. Others - **Log**: It is fluctuating repeatedly. The price of domestic log futures has remained stable. The trend strength is neutral [2][55]. - **Rubber**: It is fluctuating. The price trend of domestic rubber futures is not clear. The report does not provide specific trend strength information [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: There is support during the shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Asphalt**: The factory inventory has decreased slightly, and it is in a narrow - range shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **LLDPE**: The agricultural demand may be approaching its peak, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **PP**: Do not chase short positions in the short term, and there is still pressure in the medium - term trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Pulp**: It is fluctuating. The price trend of domestic pulp futures is not clear. The report does not provide specific trend strength information [2]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Methanol**: It is in a weak operation. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Urea**: There is support during the short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Styrene**: Attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Soda Ash**: There is little change in the spot market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **LPG**: The downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Propylene**: The demand expectation has improved, and it is in a short - term strong shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **PVC**: There is still pressure in the trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Fuel Oil**: It maintains a weak shock and is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has increased, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has continued to widen. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the opening guidance. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Short - Fiber**: The upstream fluctuation has increased, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Bottle Chip**: The upstream fluctuation has increased, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is in a low - level shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Pure Benzene**: The overseas blending oil market has started, and it is mainly in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The short - term negative factors have been fully digested, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean price is stable, and soybean oil is in a strong shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean price is strong, and the domestic soybean meal may follow the rebound. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Soybean**: It may follow the rebound of the soybean market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Corn**: It is fluctuating. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the trading volume of new sugar. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses the futures price. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Egg**: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse - spread pattern. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Live Pig**: The expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed, and the pressure is gradually being released. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different commodities having various outlooks. Some are expected to oscillate, some are under pressure, and some are relatively stable or have short - term support [2] - For example, rubber, paper pulp, and glass are expected to oscillate; PP,烧碱, PVC are under pressure; while synthetic rubber, urea, and LPG have short - term support [2] Summary by Commodity Rubber - **Trend**: Oscillating [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The main contract's daily and night - time closing prices increased, and trading volume rose, but positions decreased. The inventory in Qingdao increased, and tire supply weakened due to some enterprises' maintenance plans. Raw material prices may remain high due to weather [5][6][7] Synthetic Rubber - **Trend**: Oscillating with support [2][8] - **Fundamentals**: The spot trading of the synthetic rubber industry chain improved, and prices of butadiene and butadiene rubber stabilized and rebounded slightly. The inventory was in an oscillating pattern, and the natural rubber sector was firm, providing support [9][10] Asphalt - **Trend**: Narrow - range oscillation with a slight decrease in factory inventory [2][11] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices showed slight fluctuations, and factory and social inventories decreased in some regions due to supply reduction and terminal demand support [11][23] LLDPE - **Trend**: Agricultural demand may peak, and attention should be paid to supply pressure [2][24] - **Fundamentals**: The futures market was under pressure, and the basis was gradually repaired. Agricultural film demand weakened, and downstream industries stocked up based on existing orders [24][25] PP - **Trend**: Do not chase short - term short positions, but there is still medium - term pressure [2][28] - **Fundamentals**: The supply side is relatively high, and although recent transactions have improved slightly, the demand peak has passed. Long - term factors such as high supply and weak demand will still dominate [29] Caustic Soda - **Trend**: Still under pressure [2][32] - **Fundamentals**: High production and inventory continue, and the demand from the alumina industry and non - aluminum downstream is limited. The cost support is weak [34] Pulp - **Trend**: Oscillating [2][37] - **Fundamentals**: The futures market was weak, and the spot market was inactive due to the industry conference. The supply pressure continued, and demand was weak [39][40][41] Glass - **Trend**: The original sheet price is stable [2][44] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price decreased, and the spot market price dropped in some regions, with a pessimistic market sentiment [44] Methanol - **Trend**: Weak operation [2][47] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price declined, and the spot price also decreased. The supply is high, and the demand from the MTO industry is under pressure. The cost support is gradually emerging [48][50][51] Urea - **Trend**: Short - term oscillation with support [2][53] - **Fundamentals**: The enterprise inventory decreased due to the new export policy. The fourth - batch export quota may relieve inventory pressure, and the mid - stream replenishment is active [54][55] Styrene - **Trend**: Short - term oscillation, pay attention to the increase in ethylbenzene [2][56] - **Fundamentals**: The short - term aromatics blending logic continues. The pure benzene market is in a stage of weak chemical reality and strong blending expectations [57] Soda Ash - **Trend**: The spot market changes little [2][58] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price was stable, and the enterprise equipment was mostly stable. Downstream demand was stable, and the market is expected to oscillate steadily [58][59] LPG - **Trend**: Downstream buying interest is strong, short - term relatively resistant to decline [2][61] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices showed fluctuations, and downstream buying interest was strong. Some PDH and other devices have maintenance plans [61][66][67] Propylene - **Trend**: Demand expectation improves, short - term strong - biased oscillation [2][61] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices showed fluctuations, and the demand expectation improved [61] PVC - **Trend**: Still under pressure [2][68] - **Fundamentals**: The market price is stable, but the supply is high, and the demand related to real estate is weak. Inventory transfer is difficult, and export is affected by policies [68] Fuel Oil - **Trend**: Maintain weak oscillation, short - term weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil [2][71] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices declined, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil widened [71] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Trend**: The night - session price rose, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices continued to widen [2][71] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices showed an upward trend at night, and the spot price spread widened [71] Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Trend**: Pay attention to the opening guidance [2][73] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices showed fluctuations, and the SCFIS index decreased. The spot freight rate may change, and attention should be paid to Maersk's 49 - week opening guidance [73][82][83]

俞俊臣 投资咨询证号：Z0021065 联系邮箱：yjc@nawaa.com 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月17日 纸浆、胶版印刷纸近期价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纸浆 | 4750-5600 | 9.88% | 8.74% | | 胶版印刷纸 | 4150-4350 | 9.10% | 48.83% | source： Wind、同花顺iFinD、南华研究 造纸产业风险管理日报 纸浆、胶版印刷纸风险管理策略建议 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | SP2601 | 卖出 | 25% | 5500-5600 | | 管理 | 纸）库存高位，担心 | 多 | 做空纸浆/胶版印刷纸期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | ...