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俄乌战火烧出能源 “三权” 阴谋!转型时刻,中国要当新话事人?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 11:48
Core Insights - The article discusses the geopolitical dynamics of energy, emphasizing the "three rights" framework: resource rights, channel rights, and market rights, which are central to energy control and influence [1][3][5] - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine highlights the interplay of these rights, with Russia holding resource rights, Ukraine controlling transit channels, and the EU and the US exerting market influence [3][5] - The rise of clean energy is reshaping the traditional energy landscape, suggesting a shift in the core competitive advantage from resource ownership to manufacturing capabilities, particularly for China [7][13] Energy Geopolitics - The "three rights" framework simplifies the complex nature of energy trade, which often involves ideological and military alliances, but remains a crucial lens for understanding energy interactions [3][5] - The conflict's roots lie in geopolitical security issues, with energy rights acting as a significant factor in the escalation of tensions [3][5] Clean Energy Transition - Clean energy is not expected to replace traditional energy sources instantly but is seen as a long-term trend that will gradually alter the geopolitical landscape [7][13] - The cost of clean energy technologies has significantly decreased, with China's photovoltaic electricity cost dropping over 90% since 2010, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics [7][9] Manufacturing Capabilities - China's manufacturing capabilities in clean energy are extensive, covering the entire supply chain from raw materials to finished products, which provides resilience against potential supply chain disruptions [8][9] - Despite concerns about reliance on imported core materials, China's increasing self-sufficiency in polysilicon and wind turbine components indicates progress in reducing vulnerabilities [9][10] US Energy Landscape - The US maintains a strong position in traditional energy with significant investments in oil and gas, but its clean energy manufacturing capabilities lag behind China's [10][11] - The US faces challenges in transitioning to a clean energy-centric model due to entrenched interests in fossil fuels and a lack of domestic manufacturing capacity for clean energy technologies [11][13] Future Outlook - The article posits that China's ability to adapt to the new energy landscape and overcome technological challenges will be crucial for enhancing its geopolitical influence in the clean energy sector [13] - The historical context of energy transitions suggests that adaptability to new energy paradigms will determine future competitive advantages [13]