（原标题：他们，将影响你的生意和生活|国家能源局局长王宏志） 关键词：能源安全保障、绿色低碳转型、 科技自立自强、民生用能保障 站在新的历史起点，能源行业要充分认识到能源强国建设已有坚实基础，乘势而上全面推进正当其时； 充分认识到初步建成新型能源体系目标已经明确，必须系统科学谋划推进"十五五"能源工作；充分认识 到确保如期实现碳达峰和2035年国家自主贡献目标，必须以更大力度推动能源绿色低碳转型；充分认识 到人工智能为能源发展带来空前机遇，必须坚持双向赋能抢占能源发展战略制高点。 "十四五"期间，传统能源自给率和保供水平均持续提高，风光等新能源迎来大力发展。我国能源结构正 在向以绿色能源为主的新型能源体系转型。 步入"十五五"，新型能源体系建设速度将进一步加快。2035年，非化石能源消费占能源消费总量的比重 达到30%以上，风电和太阳能发电总装机容量达到2020年的6倍以上、力争达到36亿千瓦。"十四五"期 间进一步增长的新能源装机也对能源系统提出了新要求：风光生产出的绿色电力如何充分消费、电网如 何适配波动的风光电、风光资源时空分布不均如何平抑…… 因此"十五五"规划提出要加快建设新型能源体系，不仅要从电源 ...

"十四五"能源规划圆满收官 在"四个革命、一个合作"能源安全新战略指引下，我们统筹能源高质量发展和高水平安全，推动"十四 五"能源规划确定的14项主要指标、19项重大战略任务、34类重大工程如期完成，为新型能源体系建设 奠定坚实基础。 能源安全保障能力再上新台阶，一次能源生产总量突破50亿吨标准煤、自给率稳定保持在80%以上，西 电东送、西气东输、北煤南运大动脉不断巩固拓展，有力支撑了能源供应"量足价稳"。绿色低碳转型实 现跃升发展，构建了全球最大、发展最快的可再生能源体系，"十四五"能源需求增量的近一半由非化石 能源满足，非化石能源占能源消费总量比重超过20%。改革创新活力不断释放，白鹤滩水电站、全球首 座高温气冷堆、"深海一号"能源站等多个"大国重器"建成投运，新型储能、氢能产业规模化发展；全国 统一电力市场加快建设，绿证累计交易突破14亿个，绿电直连等新模式蓬勃发展。国际合作不断开创新 局面，能源多元进口保持稳定，与100多个国家和地区开展了绿色能源项目合作，在全球能源治理中的 影响力和话语权显著提升。 2月23日，"中国电力报"发表国家能源局规划司司长任育之署名文章《推动"十五五"初步建成新型能源 体 ...

国家能源局发展规划司司长 任育之 能源是经济社会发展的重要物质基础。党的二十大首次提出加快规划建设新型能源体系，二十届四中全 会进一步明确"十五五"初步建成新型能源体系、建设能源强国，这是党中央深刻把握全球能源发展大 势、立足我国能源发展方位作出的新部署新要求，为能源发展提供了根本遵循和行动纲领。过去一年， 我们全力推动"十四五"能源规划收官，谋划"十五五"能源发展方向路径，统筹推进《新型能源体系建 设"十五五"规划》研究编制工作。 "十四五"能源规划圆满收官 在"四个革命、一个合作"能源安全新战略指引下，我们统筹能源高质量发展和高水平安全，推动"十四 五"能源规划确定的14项主要指标、19项重大战略任务、34类重大工程如期完成，为新型能源体系建设 奠定坚实基础。 推动"十五五"初步建成新型能源体系 不确定因素增多对能源安全带来更大挑战。从国际看，世界变乱交织、动荡加剧，能源成为战略竞争焦 点。全球能源贸易阵营化趋势更加明显，围绕资源权、通道权和市场权的竞争日趋激烈，我国部分能源 资源进口面临更大不确定性。与此同时，国际油气供需总体宽松、价格下行，有利于我国更好统筹国内 国际两个市场两种资源。从国内看，经济社 ...

Report Information - Report Title: 2026 Commodity Outlook - Research Team: Guolian Minsheng Securities Forward-looking Research Team - Report Date: February 13, 2026 [1] Investment Recommendations - Industrial metals: Due to the demand from the electric vehicle, energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaic sectors, and the long - term insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaching the limit, copper and aluminum are recommended for their potentially positive fundamentals [3]. - Minor metals: Benefiting from China's macro - regulation and supervision of strategic minerals and the supply being restricted by mining quotas, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten are recommended [3]. - Precious metals: With their defensive properties, the prices of silver and platinum are expected to enter an upward cycle, so they are recommended [3]. Core Views - The factors influencing commodity prices are divided into short - to - medium - term disturbances, cyclical factors, and trend/structural forces. Capital expenditure in the next 3 - 5 years will affect commodity supply and pricing [3]. Summary by Section 1. Commodity Price Drivers 1.1 Medium - to - Long - Term Influencing Factors: Capital Expenditure Cycle - Copper prices follow the marginal cost pricing principle, while oil prices do not fully conform. The oil price center may have a 5 - year cycle [12][14][15]. 1.2 Short - to - Medium - Term Disturbing Factors: Geopolitics and Supply - Side Restrictions - Commodity price fluctuations caused by geopolitics and supply - side restrictions usually correct within half a year to a year. The flexibility of US shale oil production can offset the impact of OPEC's production changes on oil prices to some extent, and OPEC+ production agreements affect oil prices within 6 months [23]. 1.3 Impact of Technological Progress - The impact of electric vehicle technology on oil demand is slower than on lithium carbonate demand. The new nickel production process has led to a large release of nickel ore capacity, and nickel prices have not outperformed inflation. US natural gas prices have underperformed inflation due to technological progress, and agricultural technological progress has significantly affected agricultural product prices [24][29][34][38]. 2. Traditional Energy: "Stable with Changes", Reshaping the Supply - Demand Structure 2.1 Oil Market - Global oil and gas upstream investment has been increasing since 2020, but it may not return to the high level of 2014 - 2015. OPEC's production recovery may be limited by remaining capacity. Trump's impact on US oil production may be limited. Global oil consumption is increasing, with China and India being the main contributors. The oil market may be in an oversupply situation in 2025 - 2026 [45][51][63][82][87]. 2.2 Natural Gas Market - Asian natural gas demand is stable, and China's dependence on imported LNG has weakened in 2025. US LNG project capacity is expected to grow rapidly, while Europe faces greater LNG import demand [91][98][104][112]. 2.3 Coal Market - Coal remains an important "ballast stone" in the power system. Global coal consumption growth is slowing, and supply is relatively stable. China's coal market is expected to operate stably under the policy of increasing supply and ensuring stable prices [120][126][132]. 3. Steel Industry: Weak Demand, Excess Capacity - Construction steel demand is in a low - growth state, and China's steel exports may be restricted by trade policies. Iron ore supply is expected to be loose, and the coking coal market supply - demand gap is narrowing, with prices fluctuating [134][139][149][159]. 4. Industrial Metals: Improving Supply - Demand Structure, Positive Fundamentals 4.1 Copper - Copper demand is facing a shift in growth drivers, with new energy sectors such as electric vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics becoming important demand sources. However, copper exploration investment has been low, and the growth of ore - end resources has been suppressed. The slowdown of recycled copper smelting and the decline of processing fees may support copper prices [165][172][178][192]. 4.2 Aluminum - China's bauxite supply is tight, and imports account for a large proportion, with potential overseas supply disruptions. Global electrolytic aluminum production growth is slowing, and China's production is restricted by the capacity ceiling, which may support aluminum prices [199][208][219]. 4.3 Rare Earths - China's rare earth mining and smelting quota growth has slowed down, and the increase in overseas supply is limited [224]. 4.4 Antimony - The demand for antimony in the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to increase, but domestic antimony mine production growth is limited, and global supply is tightening [230][235]. 4.5 Tungsten - The downstream demand for tungsten is expected to improve with the recovery of the manufacturing industry. However, domestic tungsten mine production growth may slow down, while overseas supply may increase [240][246]. 5. Precious Metals: Entering an Upward Cycle - Silver and platinum - group metals may continue to be in a shortage situation. The industrial demand for silver, especially in the photovoltaic sector, is strong, while the demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive industry may decline due to the increase in electric vehicle penetration [252][257]. 6. Agricultural Products: Climate Change Challenges, Regional Market Differentiation 6.1 Soybeans - The global soybean supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose. China's soybean consumption may decline, the US renewable fuel production has decreased, and trade policies may affect the soybean trade pattern. North American and South American soybean production has different trends, and China's soybean import volume may decrease [264][269][273][278][294]. 6.2 Corn - Global corn supply is tightening, with inventory decreasing. China's corn consumption is growing steadily, the US corn production has decreased but exports have increased significantly, Brazil's corn production has different trends, and its domestic ethanol production restricts exports [299][300][309][315][320]. 6.3 Wheat - The global wheat market is in a tight - balance state. China and India's imports may increase, Russia and the EU's supply has decreased due to bad weather, while North America and Australia's wheat production has been positively affected by the weather. The supply of major exporting countries is tight, and prices are stabilizing [321][331][332][339][340].

公司近期在新能源领域取得关键进展。旗下金山化工的"绿能一号"产品成功将危险品等级从二级降至三 级，扫清了向柬埔寨市场出口的政策障碍。目前公司正加速推进当地危险品运输牌照申请，并与潜在客 户洽谈长期销售协议，预计2026年二季度实现批量出口。此外，公司在柬埔寨运营的40余家福东南品牌 连锁加油站已实现标准化运营，传统能源业务提供稳定现金流，新能源板块毛利率达42%，成为增长新 引擎。这些举措强化了其"传统能源+新能源"双轮驱动战略。 经济观察网近期美国绿星球(PLAG.AM)股价波动显著。根据内部数据库，2026年2月5日，该股收盘价 报4.02美元，单日涨幅达8.65%，成交量为28.86万股，换手率为3.08%，日内振幅高达31.89%。随后股 价出现回调，2月9日下跌5.19%至3.84美元，2月10日进一步下跌2.08%至3.76美元，成交量和换手率均 显著收窄。近5日累计涨幅为3.30%，但区间振幅仍达31.89%，显示市场交投活跃且波动较大。 近期事件 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 ...

新闻聚焦 ◐ 琼州海峡新能源车辆运力提升40%。 据央视新闻报道，2月2日，2026年春运正式开启。作为海南全岛封关运作后的首个春运， 叠加"免签入境" "离岛免税"等政策红利释放，预计琼州海峡进出岛客货运输需求将迎来大幅增长，从湛江海事局了解到，春运首 日，"绿源六号"和"绿源九号"两艘新能源车辆专用运输船正式投用，助力琼州海峡新能源车过海运输保障能力提升40%，为春运高 峰运输筑牢运力根基。 国际新闻 ◐ 委内瑞拉首次出口液化石油气。 据央视新闻2月2日报道，当地时间2月1日，据委内瑞拉国有石油公司消息，载有该国液化石油 气的"克里索皮吉女士号"轮船已从委内瑞拉启航。当天委内瑞拉代总统罗德里格斯也在社交媒体发文称，第一艘载有液化石油气的 轮船成功启航，实现该国第一次液化石油气出口。 ◐ 四部门：公布第三批工业产品碳足迹核算规则团体标准推荐清单。 2月2日，工业和信息化部等四部门发布的《关于公布工业产 品碳足迹核算规则团体标准推荐清单（第三批）的通告》指出，经相关标准化机构推荐、专家评审、网上公示等程序，工业和信息 化部、生态环境部、国家发展改革委、市场监管总局确定了73项工业产品碳足迹核算规则团体标准推荐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of an energy powerhouse is essential for modernizing the country and ensuring energy security, especially in the context of global geopolitical changes and the need for a green low-carbon transition [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Energy Revolution and Modernization - The development of energy is a crucial indicator of national modernization, particularly for a large country like China, and is aligned with the "Four Revolutions and One Cooperation" strategy proposed by President Xi Jinping [2]. - The construction of an energy powerhouse is a strategic deployment responding to external environmental changes and domestic energy development needs, supporting high-quality development and new productive forces [2]. Group 2: Energy Security and Geopolitical Strategy - Enhancing energy security capabilities is urgent due to increasing geopolitical risks and the politicization of energy issues, necessitating a robust energy supply chain and innovation system [3]. - Building an energy powerhouse is vital for achieving energy security and providing momentum for manufacturing and transportation sectors, thereby strengthening China's strategic position in global power dynamics [3]. Group 3: Green Low-Carbon Development - The transition to a green low-carbon economy is a strategic priority for global competition, and developing a new energy system will facilitate this transition while promoting technological and industrial innovation [4]. - China's leadership in global energy transition can be reinforced through the construction of an energy powerhouse, contributing to international climate governance and enhancing its competitive edge in green industries [4]. Group 4: Development Foundations - China has favorable conditions for accelerating the construction of an energy powerhouse, with significant increases in energy production capacity since 2021, including coal production of 4.78 billion tons and natural gas production of 246.5 billion cubic meters in 2024 [5]. - The country has established itself as a leader in renewable energy, with wind and solar power installations surpassing coal power for the first time in 2024, and producing 80% of global solar components and 70% of key wind power parts [5]. - However, challenges remain with high dependence on foreign oil and gas, which exceeds 70% and 40% respectively, although this is expected to decrease as fossil fuel consumption peaks [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of building an energy powerhouse as a fundamental requirement for modernizing the country and ensuring energy security, especially in the context of global changes and the need for a green low-carbon transition [1][2] - The construction of an energy powerhouse is aligned with the new energy security strategy proposed by the government, which includes promoting energy consumption, supply, technology, and institutional revolutions, as well as enhancing international cooperation [2] - The urgency of enhancing energy security capabilities is highlighted due to increasing geopolitical risks and the politicization of energy issues, necessitating the development of a robust energy supply chain and innovation system [3] Group 2 - The need for green low-carbon development is identified as a strategic priority for enhancing global competitiveness, with a focus on transforming energy production and consumption patterns to achieve carbon neutrality goals [4] - China has made significant progress in energy supply capabilities since the proposal to build an energy powerhouse in 2021, with substantial increases in energy production expected by 2024, including coal, oil, and natural gas [5] - China is recognized as a leader in renewable energy, with the largest installed capacity for wind and solar power globally, and a complete supply chain for clean electricity, although there are challenges related to high dependence on foreign oil and gas [5]

Core Viewpoint - By 2025, China's energy supply security capacity will be significantly enhanced, with multiple important policy measures being introduced to solidify the foundation for a new energy system, promoting green energy development and high-quality investment opportunities [1]. Investment and Project Completion - National energy investment is expected to maintain rapid growth, with key project investments exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan, marking an 11% year-on-year increase, outpacing infrastructure and manufacturing growth by 12.9 and 10.1 percentage points respectively [3]. - The production of raw coal remains stable, with a 1.2% increase in industrial raw coal output. Oil and gas production will reach historical highs, with industrial crude oil output increasing by 1.5% and natural gas output by 6.2% [3]. Renewable Energy and Market Transactions - New installed capacity for wind and solar energy is projected to exceed 430 million kilowatts, with total installed capacity surpassing 1.8 billion kilowatts, accounting for over 60% of renewable energy generation capacity [3]. - Renewable energy generation is expected to reach approximately 4 trillion kilowatt-hours, exceeding the combined electricity consumption of the EU's 27 countries [3]. - The cumulative electricity trading volume in the national power market is anticipated to reach 6.64 trillion kilowatt-hours, a 7.4% increase year-on-year, with market-based transactions accounting for 64% of total electricity consumption, up 1.3 percentage points [3]. Green Electricity Trading and Certificates - Green electricity trading volume is projected to reach 328.5 billion kilowatt-hours, a 38.3% increase year-on-year, with long-term green electricity agreements totaling 60 billion kilowatt-hours [4]. - The green certificate market is expected to see significant growth, with cumulative transactions reaching 930 million certificates, a 120% increase year-on-year, and the average transaction price rising by 90% in the second half of 2025 [4]. Power Grid Development - China has established the world's largest and most complex AC/DC hybrid power grid, enhancing resource allocation capabilities with 45 ultra-high voltage transmission channels [6]. - The grid supports an annual average of 80 million kilowatts of new power load demand, ensuring reliable electricity supply equivalent to the total consumption of the US, EU, and Japan combined [6]. New Energy Storage Growth - New energy storage capacity is expected to grow by 84% by the end of 2025, reaching 136 million kilowatts/351 million kilowatt-hours, a more than 40-fold increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [10]. - The average storage duration is projected to increase to 2.58 hours, with significant contributions from regions like North China and Northwest China [10][11]. Future Grid Development - The future power system will exhibit high penetration of new energy, high electrification, and increased complexity, necessitating new requirements for grid development [7]. - The upcoming focus will be on constructing a coordinated development framework for main, distribution, and micro grids, enhancing the overall efficiency and reliability of the power supply [8].

作者 | 第一财经 郭霁莹 能源投资正加速成为国内经济发展的新增长点。 国家能源局1月30日披露的数据显示，2025年全国能源重点项目完成投资额首次超过3.5万亿元，同 比增近11%，增速分别高于同期基础设施、制造业12.9、10.1个百分点。内蒙古、新疆、山东、广 东、江苏五地能源投资居前，完成额均超2000亿元。 关于如何保障新一年能源投资接续发力，国家能源局发展规划司副司长邢翼腾表示，国家能源局将围 绕激发市场活力、优化发展环境等方面加大政策支持力度，打通项目落地"最后一公里"，让收益看得 见、项目转得动。 2026.01. 30 本文字数：1996，阅读时长大约3分钟 在他看来，接下来新能源发展不应继续"单兵作战"，而要作为新型能源体系的关键一环，与系统中电 源、储能、电网以及千行百业的生产消费深度结合，以此提升发展自主性、增强市场竞争力。 基于此，"新能源集成融合发展"将是必要选择，也将成为能源项目投资未来的重要方向。 投资"向新向绿" 从项目业态看，过去一年国内在能源绿色转型上的投资加快释放，能源安全保障等关键领域的投资持 续扩大。 能源转型投资方面，"向绿向新"势头稳固。2025年全国风电光伏新 ...