1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, due to the approaching Ramadan, the Malaysian palm oil market was closed. Before the closure, its performance was relatively strong, but the surrounding vegetable oils weakened. The domestic soybean oil market will face a shutdown wave at the end of the month, which provides some support to the futures market. However, it is currently the traditional off - season for demand, and the overseas macro - recession expectation has more negative impacts than the support from the shutdown. The palm oil market may face pressure to decline due to the slowdown in exports and the potential increase in production after Ramadan. The rapeseed oil market is still at risk of a pull - back and will continue to be affected by the Middle East situation, maintaining a wide - range volatile adjustment. It is recommended to exit long positions and hold short positions [2][3]. - For the double - meal sector, the external soybean market may face a new decline risk if it cannot effectively break through the 20 - day moving average. The decline of the domestic soybean meal futures is limited due to the shutdown wave at the end of the month and the strong spot market. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to remain in the range of 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal market has light trading volume as the aquaculture season has not arrived. It is recommended to exit long positions at low levels and try short positions with a small amount [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil 3.1.1 Market Performance - On March 19, affected by the escalation of geopolitical tensions, international crude oil prices rose sharply, but the vegetable oil market did not follow significantly. The vegetable oil sector showed a narrow - range oscillation. The closing prices and changes of main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are as follows: - Soybean oil: The main contract Y2605 closed at 8616 yuan/ton, up 0.89% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 19737 lots; the secondary contract Y2609 closed at 8530 yuan/ton, down 0.92% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 7975 lots [2]. - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 9796 yuan/ton, up 1.07% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 1763 lots; the secondary contract P2609 closed at 9706 yuan/ton, up 1.02% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 4735 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil: The main contract OI2605 closed at 9854 yuan/ton, up 0.76% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 5030 lots; the secondary contract OI2609 closed at 9708 yuan/ton, up 0.72% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 2362 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On March 19, NYMEX crude oil futures fell, with the main US oil contract down 0.19% to $96.14/barrel, and the main Brent oil contract up 1.18% to $108.65/barrel. Israel said it would suspend air strikes on Iranian energy facilities [2]. - A study shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous estimate. Production may decline in the short term due to plantation workers returning home for Ramadan but is expected to recover after the holiday [2]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) suggested that the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel to deal with the energy price crisis caused by the war between the US, Israel, and Iran. The Brazilian energy minister called for more tests before increasing the mandatory biodiesel mixing ratio [2]. - On March 19, the US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported that the La Nina phenomenon is still ongoing, is expected to turn into an ENSO - neutral state next month, and is likely to remain neutral from May to July 2026. An El Nino phenomenon may form from June to August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [2]. - The Malaysian MPOB report shows that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.94% to 2.7 million tons compared with the previous month, production decreased by 18.55% to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22.48% to 1.13 million tons. Market expectations were 2.63 million tons for inventory, 1.3 million tons for production, and 1.18 million tons for exports [2]. - The shipping survey agency SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 15 were 443,812 tons, a 12.7% increase from 393,853 tons in the same period of February. Exports to China were 39,000 tons, a 1700 - ton increase from the previous month [2][3]. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0557 million tons, a weekly increase of 9400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.49%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 990,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 20,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.35%; edible palm oil inventory was 760,900 tons, a weekly increase of 16,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.18%, and a year - on - year increase of 94.21%; rapeseed oil inventory was 304,000 tons, a weekly increase of 13,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.54%, and a year - on - year decrease of 64.42% [3]. - As of March 19, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton; the basis was 244 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9870 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was 74 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 94 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil was - 388.13 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,410 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 130 yuan/ton, and the basis was 556 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 56 yuan/ton [3]. - As of March 19, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.83 [3]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the global financial market fluctuated overnight, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and precious metals falling sharply, triggering a liquidity crisis and a strong global recession expectation. The US soybean oil was under pressure at a high level. Domestically, some soybean oil factories have shut down, and the market is concerned about the shutdown wave at the end of the month, which provides some support to the futures market. However, it is the traditional off - season for demand, and the overseas macro - recession expectation has more negative impacts. The palm oil market may face pressure due to the slowdown in exports and the potential increase in production after Ramadan. The rapeseed oil market is still at risk of a pull - back and will continue to be affected by the Middle East situation [2][3]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, exit long positions in oils and increase short positions. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - Y2605: Pressure level 9300, support level 8048. - Y2609: Pressure level 9700, support level 8054. - P2605: Pressure level 12000, support level 8776. - P2609: Pressure level 12000, support level 8710. - OI2605: Pressure level 12000, support level 9212. - OI2609: Pressure level 12000, support level 9180 [3]. 3.2 Double - Meal 3.2.1 Market Performance - On March 19, domestic double - meal futures opened and closed lower, with rapeseed meal falling more than soybean meal. The closing prices and changes of main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: - Soybean meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 3042 yuan/ton, up 0.20% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 26,514 lots; the secondary contract M2609 closed at 3009 yuan/ton, up 0.17% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 14,892 lots [3]. - Rapeseed meal: The main contract RM2605 closed at 2443 yuan/ton, with no change day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 13,533 lots; the secondary contract RM2609 closed at 2438 yuan/ton, up 0.45% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 4094 lots [3]. 3.2.2 Important Information - The forecast of the NOPA monthly soybean crushing report shows that the average prediction of 9 analysts is that the NOPA member companies' soybean crushing volume in February may reach a record high for that month, with an average of 202.725 million bushels [3][4]. - Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has intensified. The soybean exports of Brazil and the US may decline in the next few weeks. Although the current export volume is relatively limited, if the conflict persists, shipping and insurance costs may increase, posing a potential threat to the export prospects [4]. - Chinese and US economic officials held a "very stable" talk on agricultural trade in Paris on the 15th. China still promises to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans annually in the next three years [4]. - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 will be 16.09 million tons, a 2% increase from 15.73 million tons in March 2025 [4]. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.8215 million tons, a decrease of 284,700 tons from the previous week. The inventory of domestic soybean meal was 623,500 tons, a decrease of 143,500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 18.71%; the contract volume was 4.8823 million tons, a decrease of 351,500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.72%. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 181,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal for crushing was 20,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 33.33%; the contract volume was 76,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 65.22% [4]. - As of March 19, the spot price of soybean meal was 3399 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 49,000 tons. The basis of soybean meal was 3381 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 131,000 tons. The basis of the main soybean meal contract was 318 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 24 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2670 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month, and the trading volume was 0 tons. The basis of rapeseed meal was 2501 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 tons. The basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 27 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month [4]. - The crushing profit of US soybeans in April was - 342 yuan/ton for the futures market and - 42 yuan/ton for the spot market; the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans in April was 188 yuan/ton for the futures market and 488 yuan/ton for the spot market [4]. - The arrival cost of US Gulf soybeans in April at Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 4139 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans was 3777 yuan/ton. The CNF quotes of US Gulf soybeans in April were $523/ton, and those of Brazilian soybeans were $476/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian rapeseed in April was $570/ton, and the arrival cost of rapeseed at Guangzhou Port in April was 5167 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 151 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, if the US soybean market cannot effectively break through the 20 - day moving average, it may face a new decline risk. Domestically, although the import cost of soybean meal has slightly decreased, the decline of the futures market is limited due to the shutdown wave at the end of the month and the strong spot market. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to remain in the range of 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal market has light trading volume as the aquaculture season has not arrived [3][4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Exit existing long positions and try short positions with a small amount. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - M2605: Pressure level 3278, support level 2710. - M2607: Pressure level 3000, support level 2680. - M2609: Pressure level 3200, support level 2833. - RM2605: Pressure level 2600, support level 2220. - RM2607: Pressure level 2560, support level 2200. - RM2609: Pressure level 2600, support level 2274 [4].