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财经观察:欧盟购7500亿美国能源,能实现吗?
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-07-30 22:52
Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the EU and the US, touted by President Trump as "the largest trade agreement in history," includes a commitment from the EU to purchase $750 billion worth of energy products from the US, which has raised skepticism regarding its feasibility and implementation [1][2][9]. Group 1: EU's Energy Procurement Challenges - The EU's current energy imports from the US amount to only $759 million, which is less than one-third of the proposed annual target of $250 billion over the next three years [4][5]. - The procurement of energy is primarily managed by private companies rather than government entities, making it difficult for the EU to direct where and how much energy is purchased from the US [4][5]. - The energy procurement agreement conflicts with the EU's own energy development goals, as it aims to reduce reliance on Russian gas, while only a small fraction of the EU's gas imports currently come from Russia [5][6]. Group 2: US Supply Capacity Concerns - Analysts express doubts about the US's ability to meet the EU's energy demands, as the US's total energy exports are projected to exceed $330 billion in 2024, and even if all exports were redirected to the EU, the total would only reach $141 billion [6][7]. - The current capacity of US LNG terminals is nearly at full operation, and while expansions are underway, they will take years to complete [7][10]. - The US's oil production is stabilizing, and there are challenges in redirecting exports from other markets to meet EU demands, which complicates the feasibility of the agreement [7][10]. Group 3: Political and Structural Implications - The agreement lacks legal binding and is viewed more as a political vision rather than a practical plan, with significant adjustments needed in global energy flows to fulfill the procurement targets [9][11]. - The EU's commitment to increase energy procurement from the US is seen as a response to the geopolitical pressures following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has forced the EU to diversify its energy sources [10][11]. - The potential for the agreement to reshape global energy trade dynamics exists, but its immediate impact is expected to be limited, with long-term changes requiring further evaluation [10][11].