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中国通胀数据快评:5月服务价格推动核心CPI上涨,6月CPI同比有望转正
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-09 08:28
Inflation Data Summary - In May, China's CPI year-on-year remained stable at -0.1%, unchanged from the previous month[2] - The core CPI in May increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a mild upward trend[4] - The PPI in May saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to April[2][17] Price Trends - Food CPI in May decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The PPI for production materials dropped by 4.0% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.9 percentage points[17] - The overall CPI in May was slightly above seasonal levels, driven primarily by food prices, while PPI remained in negative growth, reflecting weak industrial prices[6][22] Future Projections - For June, the CPI is expected to return to positive growth, with a projected year-on-year increase of 0.1%[3][27] - The forecast for June indicates a food price increase of approximately 0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices are expected to decrease by 0.1%[27] - The PPI for June is anticipated to remain at -3.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of about -0.2%[27]