Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 0.2%, driven by improved food prices and robust service consumption[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 1.2%, the highest level since March 2024[2] - Food CPI improved with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9%, while fresh vegetables and fruits saw significant price increases[3] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points to -2.1%, marking the first month of increase in 2025[5] - The PPI improvement is driven by the oil-petrochemical and coal-metallurgy sectors, indicating a unique price logic compared to other major industrial countries[5] - Domestic effective investment demand growth is constrained, prolonging the PPI recovery process due to ongoing real estate market adjustments[5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The upward trend in core CPI and PPI suggests a synchronized improvement, but the underlying inflation logic remains fragile[5] - Domestic consumption and effective investment demand are still weak, influenced by rising household debt during the real estate market's bottoming phase[5] - The necessity to expand domestic demand is emphasized, especially in light of cooling export growth and uncertainties from global supply chain restructuring[5]

Inflation Data Summary - In May, China's CPI year-on-year remained stable at -0.1%, unchanged from the previous month[2] - The core CPI in May increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a mild upward trend[4] - The PPI in May saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to April[2][17] Price Trends - Food CPI in May decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The PPI for production materials dropped by 4.0% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.9 percentage points[17] - The overall CPI in May was slightly above seasonal levels, driven primarily by food prices, while PPI remained in negative growth, reflecting weak industrial prices[6][22] Future Projections - For June, the CPI is expected to return to positive growth, with a projected year-on-year increase of 0.1%[3][27] - The forecast for June indicates a food price increase of approximately 0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices are expected to decrease by 0.1%[27] - The PPI for June is anticipated to remain at -3.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of about -0.2%[27]