[Table_Title] 为何核心 CPI 与经济数据存在"温差" [宏Ta观bl经e_济Rep分or析tD报ate告] | 2025.9.30 核心观点 韦志超 首席经济学家 SAC 执证编号：S0110520110004 weizhichao@sczq.com.cn 电话：86-10-81152692 相关研究 请务必仔细阅读本报告最后部分的重要法律声明 [Table_Rank] [Table_Authors] [Tabl今e_年Sum1-m8a月ry核] 心 CPI 环比累计上涨 0.9%，为疫情后偏高水平，但与今 年的经济数据似乎存在差异。具体来说，2025 年 1-8 月核心 CPI 环比累 计上涨 0.9%，高于 2022-2024 年同期水平，并与 2021 年同期持平。然 而，与市场普遍对 2021 年经济表现的"强劲"印象不同，当前的经济 形势与 2021 年呈现出显著差异，即使是今年表现较好的服务业 PMI 在 7 月份之前也持续低于 2021 年同期水平。 如果将 CPI 细项进行拆分，可以发现 2025 年 1-8 月环比累计增速中， 家用器具和黄金饰品价格的表现显著强于 2021 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's chief economist Andrew Ticehurst expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to announce a hold on the official cash rate, likely with unanimous support, indicating a shift towards a less dovish stance compared to August's communication [1] Economic Indicators - Recent data shows stronger GDP growth, a low unemployment rate, and signs of rising inflation [1] - The RBA's forecast suggests a quarter-on-quarter increase in core CPI of approximately 0.65% for Q3 and Q4, while Ticehurst anticipates a higher increase of 0.95% for Q3 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant improvement in M1 and M2 monetary aggregates in China, attributing this to the return of cross-border funds rather than traditional economic factors [3][10][39]. Group 1: Economic Context - M1 and M2 have maintained a high growth rate, with the M2-M1 spread continuing to narrow [3]. - Many institutions struggle to understand the substantial improvement in M1 and M2 due to their traditional economic perspectives [6][8][9]. Group 2: Cross-Border Fund Flows - China is characterized as an open economy, allowing for significant cross-border capital flows, which can lead to misunderstandings about domestic monetary conditions [11][12]. - The article explains that when interest rates are lowered in China while they are raised in the U.S., it can lead to capital outflows, impacting M1 and M2 negatively [16][19]. Group 3: Impact of Interest Rate Changes - The movement of deposits between banks in China and the U.S. is illustrated, showing how a decrease in Chinese interest rates can lead to a contraction in domestic bank balance sheets [21][23]. - The article emphasizes that the recent return of funds to China is linked to uncertainties created by U.S. policies and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [35][36]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The return of funds is expected to positively impact the A-share and Hong Kong markets, which have been under pressure due to real estate risks [52][54]. - The article suggests that the current market dynamics indicate that the return of capital will continue, potentially leading to significant market recoveries [55][58]. Group 5: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The article notes that the core CPI is gradually rising, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics as capital returns to China [61][64]. - Traditional financial data may not accurately reflect the current economic conditions due to the unique nature of the capital flows [66].

Economic Overview - The national economy is maintaining a stable and progressive development trend, with steady production demand and overall stability in employment and prices [1] - New growth drivers are being cultivated and strengthened [1] Industrial and Service Sector Performance - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month [1] - The service production index grew by 5.6% year-on-year [1] Market Sales and Investment - Social retail sales totaled 39,668 billion yuan in August, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [1] - Fixed asset investment continues to grow, and total goods import and export reached 38,744 billion yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year [1] - Exports amounted to 23,035 billion yuan, growing by 4.8%, while imports were 15,709 billion yuan, increasing by 1.7% [1] Employment and Price Stability - The average urban survey unemployment rate from January to August was 5.2%, with August's rate at 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in August, remaining flat month-on-month; however, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in August, indicating a cooling trend, but the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.9%, reflecting a gradual recovery in consumer spending [3][5] - Food prices overall dropped by 2.5% in August, primarily due to significant declines in pork prices (down 16.1%) and fresh vegetables (down 15.2%), which are influenced by seasonal factors [3][4] - Other consumer sectors showed positive trends, with clothing prices rising by 1.8%, household goods and services also up by 1.8%, and education, culture, and entertainment increasing by 1.0%, indicating a shift towards improved consumer quality of life [4][6] Group 2: PPI Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers fell by 2.9% year-on-year in August, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to July, signaling a potential easing of profit pressures for industrial enterprises [4][6] - The narrowing decline in PPI suggests that the costs of raw materials for factories are stabilizing, which may lead to improved business expectations and increased production investments [4][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The core CPI's steady increase is a key indicator of underlying economic strength, suggesting that consumer spending foundations are gradually solidifying, which is essential for economic recovery [5][6] - The positive changes in CPI and PPI data indicate a trend towards economic stability, with potential investment opportunities in sectors related to consumer quality goods and industrial production as the economy shows signs of gradual recovery [6]

Core Viewpoint - In August 2023, food prices in China experienced a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, which is a significant increase in the rate of decline compared to the previous month, impacting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) negatively [1] Economic Indicators - The decline in food prices was primarily driven by a drop in pork, fresh vegetables, and egg prices, each showing a year-on-year decrease of over 10% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month and indicating a continuous expansion in the growth rate for four consecutive months [1] - The overall impact of the food price decline on the CPI was a reduction of 0.51 percentage points compared to the previous month, highlighting the ongoing positive changes in pricing dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current positive changes in prices in China are continuing to accumulate, but the consumer price index (CPI) remains low, necessitating efforts to promote a reasonable recovery in prices [1] Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August, the CPI remained flat month-on-month and shifted from stable to a decline year-on-year, primarily due to the high base effect from the previous year [1] - Food prices in August decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, significantly impacting the CPI [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month and continuing a trend of rising for four consecutive months [1] Group 2: Industrial and Service Prices - Industrial consumer goods prices saw an increase, with a year-on-year rise of 1.5% in August, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, driven by improved supply and demand [2] - Prices for household appliances and entertainment durable goods rose by 4.6% and 2.4% respectively, contributing approximately 0.09 percentage points to the CPI [2] - Service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year in August, with a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month, influenced by increased demand for high-quality social services [2] - Medical and educational service prices rose by 1.6% and 1.2% respectively, while transportation rental and tourism prices increased by 0.8% and 0.7% [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market supply-demand relationship remains prominent, and the consumer price level is still low, indicating the need for continued efforts to expand domestic demand and implement consumption-boosting initiatives [2]

Group 1 - The core CPI in August increased by 0.9% year-on-year, the highest since February 2024, with the growth rate expanding for four consecutive months [1] - The overall CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year, particularly in food prices [1] - The rise in core CPI is driven by the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices and service prices, indicating a positive accumulation of price changes [1] Group 2 - Favorable factors for a reasonable recovery of CPI include cooler weather, increased food consumption demand, and upcoming holiday consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [2] - The government’s regulation of chaotic competition among enterprises and the effects of "anti-involution" are leading to positive changes in production prices, which will transmit to consumer prices and support CPI growth [2] - The determination of whether a turning point has been reached in economic indicators is complex, as short-term fluctuations can obscure actual trends, making it difficult to confirm turning points [2]

Economic Overview - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, influenced by high base effects from the previous year [1][3] - The month-on-month CPI was stable, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month, with food prices rising by 0.5% and non-food prices declining by 0.1% [3] Price Changes - Food prices saw a significant increase in fresh vegetables (up 8.5%) and eggs (up 1.5%), contributing to a 0.17 percentage point increase in the month-on-month CPI [3] - Conversely, prices for fresh fruits, aquatic products, and pork decreased by 2.8%, 0.9%, and 0.5%, respectively, leading to a 0.09 percentage point decrease in the month-on-month CPI [3] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month, and has been on the rise for four consecutive months [4] - The increase in core CPI is primarily driven by the recovery in industrial consumer goods and service prices [4] Market Dynamics - The government is focusing on expanding domestic demand and implementing measures to boost consumption, including enhancing effective investment and promoting a unified national market [4] - The ongoing initiatives aim to address supply-demand imbalances and promote reasonable price recovery in key industries [4]

Economic Overview - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, influenced by high base effects from the previous year [2][3] - Food prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices decreased by 0.1% [2] Year-on-Year Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily due to a 4.3% drop in food prices, with significant decreases in pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs, all exceeding 10% [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking an increase for four consecutive months, driven by rising industrial consumer goods and service prices [3][4] Industrial Consumer Goods - Industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, increased by 1.5% year-on-year, with notable price rises in household appliances and entertainment durable goods [4] - The price increase in industrial consumer goods is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics and policies promoting consumption upgrades [4] Service Prices - Service prices rose by 0.6% year-on-year, supported by increased demand for high-quality social services and tourism during the summer [5] - Key service sectors such as medical and educational services saw price increases of 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively, indicating a steady upward trend in service pricing [5] Future Outlook - The government aims to continue expanding domestic demand and implementing consumption-boosting initiatives to promote reasonable price recovery [5]