核心CPI

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日本七月核心通胀同比增3.1%,远高于央行2%目标
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-22 04:09
日本7月份的通胀水平依然顽固,大米等食品价格持续飙升令日本央行加息预期再度升温。 8月22日周五,日本政府官方公布数据显示,其7月核心消费价格指数(CPI)同比增长3.1%,虽较6月的3.3%有 所放缓,但仍高于市场预期的3.0%及日本央行2%的目标。 此次核心通胀数据放缓,主要得益于能源价格的下跌,其7月能源价格同比下降0.3%,是自2024年3月以来的首次 下降。 然而,日本的通胀势头依然强劲。一个剔除了生鲜食品和能源价格、被视为能更准确反映潜在通胀趋势的"核心 中的核心"指标,7月份的同比增幅为3.4%,与前一个月持平。 数据发布后,市场反应迅速。日本国债收益率应声走高,而反映市场预期的掉期合约显示,交易员认为日本央行 在10月底前加息的概率已从一个月前的约42%攀升至51%。 Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute的高级执行经济学家Yoshiki Shinke指出,"仅仅因为核心CPI放缓就断定通胀正在减 弱是错误的",他强调食品价格仍在加速上涨,反映出企业将成本转嫁给消费者的意愿。 物价上涨势头不减,大米是"元凶"? 日本大米价格还在持续飙升。数据显示,7月大米价格同比上涨 ...
国家统计局:核心CPI涨幅连续3个月扩大,市场供求出现积极变化
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 04:48
来源:央视新闻客户端 作者: 张艺瑾 陈茜 一是暑期出游旺季影响下,交通出行相关服务价格上涨明显,带动服务价格回升。 二是提振消费各项政策显效,部分工业消费品价格回升。 此外,受国际油价变动影响,能源价格上涨也带动CPI环比上涨。7月份能源价格环比上涨1.6%。 发言人付凌晖表示,受服务和工业消费品价格上涨带动,7月份,居民消费价格环比由降转涨,其中主 要因素有三个: 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示,观察价格变化,不仅要看CPI总的变化,还要看核心CPI的变化, 核心CPI更能反映物价变化趋势。7月份居民消费价格同比由涨转平,但扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比 上涨0.8%,涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点,连续三个月涨幅扩大。今年以来总体上呈现稳中有升态势, 显示出市场供求出现积极变化。 核心CPI同比涨幅连续扩大,主要是今年以来提振消费专项行动有效实施,商品和服务消费潜力逐步释 放,对价格带动增强,加之国内统一大市场建设稳步推进,依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争也促进了价 格回升。随着居民消费升级,服务消费需求持续扩大,在一定程度上也带动服务价格稳中有升。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示,7月份居民消费价格运行总体 ...
国家统计局解读!核心CPI同比涨幅连续扩大
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-08-15 04:05
Group 1 - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed positive changes, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reversing the previous month's decline of 0.1% [1] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service and industrial consumer goods prices, with significant price hikes in transportation-related services due to the summer travel season [1][2] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a steady upward trend [2][3] Group 2 - The increase in core CPI is attributed to effective implementation of consumption-boosting policies and gradual release of consumption potential, alongside the establishment of a unified domestic market [3] - Prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, with household appliances seeing a 2.8% increase, reflecting a positive impact on CPI [3] - Service prices also experienced a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with notable rises in household and educational services, contributing to the overall CPI growth [3][4] Group 3 - Overall, the CPI in July remained stable, with positive changes continuing to emerge, although the market still faces a situation of strong supply and weak demand [4] - Future policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and furthering the construction of a unified national market are expected to continue yielding positive effects on price levels [4]
黄金ETF持仓量报告解读(2025-8-13)多因素影响 金价走势如何
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 07:12
黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构:美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 964.22 吨黄金 10:52 黄金ETF总持仓变化 更新时间:2025-08- 965 960 955 950 945 940 935 930 2025-06-18 2025-07-09 2025-07-30 2025-06-02 表面上看,这证实了市场对美联储9月降息的压倒性共识,市场将继续压倒性地预期9月份降息。但在美联储9月会议之前,市场还将关注另外一份CPI报告 和非农就业数据,以及本月底公布的美联储青睐的通胀指标核定PCE物价指数报告。 EBC黄金ETF持仓报告解读 截至8月12日,全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为964.22吨,较前一个交易日维持不变。8月12日,现货黄金低位盘整,全天波动幅度不到30美 元,最高触及3358.29美元/盎司,最低跌至3330.81美元/盎司,收于3348.07美元/盎司,涨5.48美元或0.16%。 基本面消息,在此前一个交易日大幅下跌之后,现货黄金亚市和欧市盘中整体维持在3350美元/盎司附近震荡盘整,在美国关键通胀指标--消费者物价指数 (CPI)出炉 ...
第一创业晨会纪要-20250813
First Capital Securities· 2025-08-13 03:40
Macro Economic Group - The U.S. CPI for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, matching the previous month but slightly below the expected 2.8% [5] - The core CPI year-on-year for July reached 3.1%, the highest since February 2025, exceeding the expected 3.0% and the previous 2.9% [5] - Following the CPI data release, the market reacted with a decline in the dollar and an increase in U.S. stock futures, indicating a 90.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [6] Advanced Manufacturing Group - In the first half of the year, investments in key energy projects in China exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, with new energy storage projects seeing over 30% growth [8] - The successful completion of an integrated energy system by Shandong Shifeng Group, featuring a 108 MW solar power station and a 100 MW/200 MWh energy storage station, is expected to save 46,000 tons of standard coal and reduce CO2 emissions by 160,000 tons annually [8] - Ford announced a $5 billion investment to develop a general electric vehicle platform, aiming to produce a series of economical vehicles to compete with Chinese electric vehicle giants [9]
美国7月份CPI同比增长2.7% 低于市场预期
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-08-12 13:45
在剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后,7月份美国核心CPI同比增长3.1%,预期3.0%,6月份为2.9%。美 国7月份核心CPI环比增长0.3%,预期0.3%,6月份为0.2%。 本报讯(记者韩昱)8月12日晚,美国7月份消费者物价指数(CPI)数据出炉。数据显示,美国7月份CPI同比 增长2.7%,预期为2.8%,6月份为2.7%。美国7月份CPI环比增长0.2%,预期0.2%,6月份为0.3%。 ...
权威数读丨12月份:CPI同比小幅上涨 PPI同比降幅收窄
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-08-12 06:01
Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December increased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable consumption market overall [5] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [7]
2025年7月通胀数据点评:政策有望继续支撑核心CPI同比上升
Orient Securities· 2025-08-11 05:03
Group 1: Inflation Trends - July CPI year-on-year growth was 0%, while core CPI growth was 0.8%, compared to previous values of 0.1% and 0.7% respectively[5] - Food prices are expected to exert downward pressure on CPI, with July food CPI at -1.6%[5] - The core CPI is anticipated to continue rising due to policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and improving living standards[5] Group 2: Policy Impact - Policies promoting consumption are expected to support high-end consumer goods and high-tech industries, maintaining elevated price indices[5] - The construction of a unified market and enhanced competition review is projected to help traditional and emerging industries recover prices[5] - The "anti-involution" policies are broadening their impact across various sectors, leading to positive changes in PPI, especially in technology and domestic demand-driven sectors[5] Group 3: PPI Performance - July PPI for certain sectors like arts and crafts, sports equipment, and nutritional food manufacturing showed year-on-year growth of at least 1.3%[5] - However, PPI in the mining sector remains under pressure, with July mining PPI at -14%[5] - External trade environment deterioration is causing PPI declines in key export sectors, with July PPI for general equipment manufacturing at -1.6%[5]
7月物价运行边际改善
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-08-11 03:13
Group 1: CPI and Core CPI Analysis - In July, CPI turned from a decrease of 0.1% to an increase of 0.4% month-on-month, better than the historical average of 0.3%, driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods [2] - Core CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March of the previous year, reflecting improved market supply-demand dynamics due to ongoing consumption promotion policies [3] - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the CPI increase, with notable price hikes in travel and entertainment services during the summer [3] Group 2: PPI and Production Material Prices - In July, PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was the smallest since March, indicating signs of stabilization in some industrial product prices [4] - Production material prices saw a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, with the decrease narrowing compared to previous months, suggesting a potential bottoming out in certain sectors [4] - Prices in coal, steel, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium battery industries showed reduced declines, indicating improved market competition and pricing stability [5] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to be a key focus in the second half of the year, aiming to regulate low-price competition and enhance product quality across various industries [7][8] - Financial measures are being implemented to guide industries away from excessive competition, with the central bank adjusting credit management to raise financing costs for overcapacity sectors [8] - The effectiveness of the "anti-involution" measures in sustaining price recovery remains uncertain, as it involves both traditional and emerging industries, and the impact on upstream demand could suppress prices [9]
核心CPI持续回升 扩内需促消费政策显效
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-08-11 01:00
Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% in June, indicating a stable overall price level in the domestic market [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, driven by rising prices in gold and platinum jewelry, as well as seasonal service price increases [3][5] - Service prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI increase, with significant rises in travel-related costs due to the summer vacation season [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month by 0.2 percentage points, marking the first narrowing of the month-on-month decline since March [4][5] - The PPI year-on-year fell by 3.6%, consistent with the previous month, reflecting ongoing adjustments in traditional industries and the growth of emerging sectors [5][6] - Improvements in market competition and the implementation of policies to curb disorderly price competition have contributed to a narrowing of price declines in industries such as coal, steel, and solar energy [4][5] Group 3: Consumer Demand and Market Trends - The expansion of domestic demand policies has led to positive changes in consumer prices, with an increase in demand for upgraded consumer goods driving price rises in specific sectors [6] - The prices of certain consumer goods, such as art and ceremonial products, sports balls, and nutritional foods, have seen year-on-year increases of 13.1%, 5.3%, and 1.3%, respectively, indicating a shift towards higher-value consumption [6] - The ongoing construction of large infrastructure projects is expected to support a gradual stabilization of industrial product prices, with the PPI potentially entering a mild recovery phase [6]