Core Insights - The traditional model of home ownership in Japan, based on lifetime employment and purchasing a home after marriage, is collapsing due to rising housing prices, increasing single-person households, and stagnant wages [2][5][9] - The average price of new homes in Tokyo's 23 wards has surged to 130.64 million yen (approximately 6.24 million RMB), marking a 20% increase compared to the previous year [4] - The "income multiplier" for home prices has exceeded 10 for the first time, with the national average at 10.09 times annual income and Tokyo reaching approximately 18 times [4][5] Housing Market Trends - The average price of newly built detached houses in the Tokyo area has remained above 55 million yen, over 10 million yen higher than five years ago [4] - The number of new housing starts has dropped to about 800,000 units annually, less than half of the peak period [5][10] - The number of vacant homes in Japan has doubled over the past 30 years, with 9 million out of 65.04 million total homes being unoccupied [10] Policy and Economic Implications - The Tokyo government is considering measures to regulate property resale to curb speculative short-term sales, reflecting a growing concern over housing affordability [2][11] - Japan's housing policies, which historically favored new home purchases through tax incentives and loan expansions, are now seen as inadequate in addressing current market realities [5][9] - There is a push for policy adjustments to promote the circulation of second-hand homes and utilize vacant properties to provide diverse housing options [10][11] Comparative Analysis - Other countries, such as the UK and France, are also facing high housing prices, with London having a price-to-income ratio of 12 times, second only to Tokyo [5][8] - Japan is exploring partnerships with the private sector to create affordable housing options, similar to successful models in New York and London [11]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional model of homeownership in Japan, based on lifetime employment and purchasing a home after marriage, is collapsing due to rising housing prices, increasing single-person households, and stagnant real wages [2][10]. Housing Market Trends - The average price of new homes in Tokyo's 23 wards reached 130.64 million yen (approximately 6.24 million RMB) in the first half of 2023, a 20% increase compared to the same period last year [7]. - The national average price-to-income ratio for new homes in Japan surpassed 10 for the first time, with Tokyo's ratio at approximately 18 [7][8]. - Prices for detached houses in the Tokyo area have also risen significantly, with the average price for new detached homes exceeding 55 million yen, up over 10 million yen from five years ago [7][10]. Policy and Regulatory Responses - The Chiyoda Ward in Tokyo has expressed concerns about the affordability crisis and requested measures to regulate property resale to curb speculative short-term flipping [4]. - The Tokyo Chiyoda District Real Estate Association acknowledged the need for measures to address speculative behavior in the housing market [4]. Historical Context and Policy Shifts - Japan's post-war housing policy aimed to encourage homeownership through favorable loans and tax incentives, which has historically supported the middle class in purchasing homes [8][10]. - The shift towards a more unstable job market and increasing single-person households has rendered the traditional homeownership model ineffective [10][11]. Alternative Housing Solutions - There is a growing need for diversified housing policies that promote the circulation of second-hand homes and address the issue of vacant properties, which number around 9 million [12][14]. - Tokyo is exploring partnerships to create affordable housing for families, referencing successful models from cities like New York and London [13][14].