阿根廷比索汇率贬值危机引发的市场资金紧张，继续拖累当地金融市场。 当地时间10月8日，阿根廷短期利率飙升，凸显出流动性收紧。 随着近几周危机加剧，阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱领导的政府已在多个方面采取干预措施，试图阻止比索 贬值，包括恢复部分外汇管制，并在期货市场抛售美元。但政府越是努力支撑比索，当前汇率不可持续 的现实就越发明显。 政府多方干预 10月31日到期的当地政府债券Lecap债券收益率从前一日的76%跃升至97%；11月28日到期的债券收益 率从74%升至近87%。 她还表示，阿根廷的当务之急是积累储备。"当国家能够承担债务偿还义务，能够应对国内压力，并且 拥有强大的储备实力时，他们当然能够继续实施其计划，并获得阿根廷人民支持"。 她同时表示，"我的梦想是阿根廷能够完全自力更生，他们拥有繁荣的一切要素，欠缺的只是政策层 面。" 中期选举面临挑战 米莱眼下非常希望避免阿根廷陷入进一步的危机。据悉，阿根廷将于10月26日举行中期选举，这对米莱 来说是一个关键的考验，如果比索贬值，将加剧通货膨胀，给米莱的中期选举带来负面影响。 米莱需要获得参众两院的支持，才能推进他最具挑战性的自由市场经济改革。如果其所在政党 ...

Core Viewpoint - Argentina is facing a severe currency crisis, with efforts to defend the peso exacerbating cash shortages and pushing short-term interest rates to a historic high of 87% [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Crisis and Government Actions - The yield on local government Lecap bonds maturing on November 28 surged from 74% to 87%, a significant increase from 51% at the end of the previous week [1]. - The Argentine government has been selling dollars in the market for seven consecutive trading days, consuming at least $320 million [1]. - The government has re-implemented some foreign exchange controls and sold dollars in the futures market to prevent peso depreciation, but these efforts have highlighted the unsustainability of the current exchange rate [2]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - President Javier Milei aims to avoid peso depreciation ahead of the midterm elections on October 26, as it would increase inflation [2]. - The upcoming elections involve half of the congressional seats, and Milei needs more support in both houses to advance his market-oriented economic reforms [2]. - Recent political setbacks, including a poor performance in local elections and corruption scandals, have intensified economic challenges for Milei's administration [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - The volatility in the bond market reflects investor skepticism regarding the current policy path, with significant fluctuations in bond prices [4]. - Following a strong rebound, the 2035 maturing bonds fell over 1 cent the next day, indicating market uncertainty [4]. - Investors are calling for currency liberalization, expressing a desire for the peso to float freely without intervention [5]. Group 4: International Support and Future Outlook - Despite U.S. promises of assistance, the situation has not improved significantly, with expectations of a new aid plan from the IMF [3]. - Current predictions suggest that the government may receive 34% to 37% of the votes in the upcoming elections, allowing Milei to continue governing through veto power and decrees [3].