【国富期货早间看点】AmSpec马棕10月出口环比增4.31% 马托格 罗索州大豆播种率达76.13% 20251103 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月3日 07:20 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油01(BMD) | 4205.00 | -1.29 | 1 | | 布伦特01(ICE) | 64. 58 | 0. 86 | -0.25 | | 美原油12(NYMEX) | 60. 88 | 0.98 | -0. 10 | | 美豆01 (CBOT) | 1115.00 | 0.72 | 1.02 | | 美豆粕12(CBOT) | 321. 40 | 2.06 | 2. 42 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 48. 62 | -1.94 | -0. 41 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 99.71 | 0. 18 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 0880 | 0. 02 | | 马来林吉特( ...

美国对阿根廷的200亿美元援助计划正将财政部长贝森特推向争议中心，这场以"战略利益"为名的救助，实际受益者可能是那些重仓阿根廷资产的 华尔街对冲基金。 据华尔街见闻文章提及，阿根廷总统米莱领导的自由前进党在中期选举中获41%选票，在众议院获64席，有望达到保护总统否决权的三分之一议 席门槛。这不仅为其激进的紧缩政策赢得了关键的民意背书，也让此前向该国提供200亿美元货币互换支持的美国政府松了一口气。 同时，这一压倒性胜利为市场注入强心剂：周一阿根廷比索兑美元上涨约4%，2046年到期的美元计价政府债券上涨11美分至约67美分，基准股指 Merval收涨22%。在阿根廷市场大涨之际，重仓阿根廷资产的华尔街对冲基金也大赚一笔。 据Morningstar Direct数据，美国共同基金和ETF持有约50亿美元阿根廷主权债务。据华尔街见闻此前文章提及，在贝森特宣布救助前， BlackRock、Fidelity、Pimco等大型基金以及Stanley Druckenmiller、Robert Citrone等投资者均已重仓阿根廷资产。其中Citrone、Druckenmiller都与 贝森特"关系匪浅"。 有分析称，美 ...

在阿根廷关键的中期选举前夕，为支持总统哈维尔·米莱（Javier Milei）政府稳定金融市场，美国已采取罕见的直接干预措施。 随着10月26日中期选举的临近，美国财政部长贝森特主导的救助行动力度持续加大。尽管官方数据尚未公布，但市场普遍认为干预金额远超10亿 美元。此举的背景是阿根廷比索在过去四个月中已贬值21%，并连续多日在官方设定的交易区间最弱一端交投。 为增强干预效果，美国财政部还在本月为阿根廷安排了规模达200亿美元的货币互换额度，以增加其美元流动性。美国财政部于10月22日进行了最 大规模的单日美元抛售，成功扭转了比索连续五天的跌势。阿根廷央行自身也在约一个月来首次入市干预，以捍卫比索汇率。 尽管美国采取了包括直接购入比索和提供货币互换额度在内的一系列强力支撑措施，但比索汇率的颓势并未被完全逆转。分析人士指出，投资者 仍然对选举带来的政治不确定性保持警惕。 美国大规模干预细节浮现 为支撑比索汇率，贝森特和米莱政府联手旨在阻止一场选举前可能发生的货币挤兑。据媒体援引不愿透露姓名的交易员称，美国的干预总额可能 达到14亿美元，而另一家本地咨询公司则向客户透露，该数字接近17亿美元。美国财政部、阿根廷经 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, weather conditions in major production areas, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - news, and fund flows. It also offers insights into potential impacts on the market based on these factors. 3. Summary by Section Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented, such as the BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, etc. For example, the BMD palm oil 01 closed at 4495.00 with a - 0.13% daily and - 0.29% overnight change [1]. - The latest prices and percentage changes of currency exchange rates, including the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are given. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.95 with a 0.34% change [1]. Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are reported. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9490 with a basis of 90 and a 0 - change [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium/discounts for imported soybeans from different origins are provided. For example, the CNF quote for Brazilian soybeans is 488 dollars/ton with a 278 - cent/bu premium [2]. Production Area Weather - In the US, the soybean - producing states will have above - normal temperatures and precipitation from October 26 - 30. The Midwest will have limited precipitation from an approaching front, and the rainfall may relieve drought but delay crop harvest [3][5]. - Brazil will be drier this week, which is generally favorable for crops. A front will bring rain later, and the dry weather may allow farmers to plant soybeans quickly [6][7]. International Supply - Demand - SPPOMA reports that Malaysian palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71% month - on - month. AmSpec indicates that the palm oil export volume from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month [9]. - Anec forecasts that Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in October will be 734 and 209 million tons respectively [10]. - EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed in the 2025/26 season are lower than the same period last year [11]. - Wet weather in Ukraine has damaged sunflower and soybean crops, reducing production forecasts [11][12]. - Australia's August rapeseed exports increased compared to July but decreased compared to the same month in 2024. The 2025/26 crop harvest has just begun [12]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 1.1% to 2094 points, supported by the increase in Capesize and Panamax freight rates [13]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On October 21, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 59% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill operating rate increased slightly [15]. - As of October 21, the national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 3.1 million tons compared to October 14 [15]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 21. The prices of various agricultural products showed different changes [15]. Macro - news - International: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 98.9%. The annual growth rate of US Redbook retail sales from October 1 - 18 was 5%. The US API crude inventory decreased by 298.1 million barrels in the week ending October 17 [17]. - Domestic: On October 21, the USD/CNY exchange rate was adjusted downwards by 43 points, and the Chinese central bank conducted 1595 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 685 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows - On October 21, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 12.172 billion yuan, including 3.152 billion yuan in commodity futures (with a 102 - million - yuan net outflow in agricultural futures, 319 - million - yuan net inflow in chemical futures, 874 - million - yuan net outflow in black - series futures, and 3.808 - billion - yuan net inflow in metal futures), 8.542 billion yuan in stock - index futures, and 385 million yuan in bond futures [22].

10月20日周一，阿根廷比索兑美元汇率下跌近1%，创下历史最低记录，逼近该国于4月份设定的交易区间底 部。这一跌势发生在美国财政部自10月9日以来已多次入市购买比索，以及两国宣布建立200亿美元货币互换额 度之后。 尽管美国财政部几度出手干预，但阿根廷比索的跌势并未停止，反而创下历史新低。 市场动荡的核心驱动力，是投资者对10月26日关键中期立法选举结果的深切忧虑。分析人士指出，由美国财政 部长贝森特主导的支持措施，未能平息阿根廷投资者为对冲选举不利结果而大量买入美元的需求。 美国干预效果不佳 贝森特本月早些时候在一次电视采访中表示，比索"被低估了"，他打算"低买高卖"。 据华尔街见闻文章，美国方面甚至在考虑通过与国际银行的私人安排，将最初200亿美元的互换额度救援计划规 模扩大一倍至400亿美元。 然而，阿根廷市场对本币比索的信心已然崩溃。投资者和普通民众正大规模地将比索兑换成美元，押注比索在 选举后将大幅贬值。 选举不确定性压倒外部支持 而市场的动荡始于上月，当时阿根廷总统米莱政党在关键的地方选举中遭遇失败。 如今，投资者的目光紧盯即将到来的中期选举，担心米莱可能无法获得足够的支持来推行其改革议程。这种政 ...

9月25日，在阿根廷首都布宜诺斯艾利斯，顾客在一家超市的冷柜前选购促销肉类。新华社发（马丁·萨巴拉摄） 据美联社报道，美国国内牛肉价格已连续多月居高不下，主要原因包括干旱以及从墨西哥进口减少。由于担心墨西哥畜牧业出现的螺旋蝇蛆病疫情蔓延至美 国，美国从5月11日起暂停从墨西哥进口活体牛、马和野牛，7月短暂恢复进口，但很快因墨西哥新增一例牲畜感染病例再次暂停。 美国本月早些时候宣布，直接购入阿根廷比索并与阿根廷中央银行敲定200亿美元货币互换框架协议。不过，特朗普14日在白宫会晤到访的阿根廷总统米莱 时说，如果米莱未能赢得本月26日举行的国会中期选举，美国将停止向阿根廷提供金融支持。据多家媒体分析，此番言论表明特朗普政府有意干预阿根廷国 内选举，助推米莱领导的执政联盟胜选。（卜晓明） 新华财经北京10月20日电美国总统特朗普19日说，美国可以进口阿根廷牛肉，以压低美国国内牛肉价格。 特朗普当天在总统专机"空军一号"上告诉媒体记者："我们会从阿根廷购买一些牛肉。如果我们这样做，可以让国内的牛肉价格降下来。" （文章来源：新华社） ...

Core Points - The Argentine peso has weakened as investors doubt the government's ability to maintain its trading band [1] - Despite a $20 billion swap line agreement with the U.S. Treasury, analysts believe it may not resolve the ongoing currency crisis [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has expressed commitment to support the Argentine peso ahead of upcoming legislative elections [2] Group 1: Currency Situation - The Argentine peso fell as investors are skeptical about the government's capacity to uphold the currency's trading band [1] - The central bank's agreement with the U.S. Treasury for a $20 billion swap line aims to provide access to necessary dollars [1] - Analysts suggest that the financial assistance may not be sufficient to stabilize the peso [1] Group 2: U.S. Support - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has pledged to act flexibly and forcefully to stabilize the Argentine currency [2] - The U.S. Treasury has intervened in the market by purchasing pesos on at least two occasions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Argentina has suspended export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil until October 31, creating a temporary cost advantage for global buyers, particularly benefiting Chinese companies facing low domestic soybean inventories [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - The suspension of the 26% export tax allowed Chinese buyers to quickly secure 10 vessels of soybeans, with potential orders increasing to 15 vessels, totaling over 2 million tons [1]. - The price of this batch of soybeans was nearly 200 RMB per ton lower than Brazilian prices, effectively supplementing domestic stocks and avoiding price volatility ahead of the U.S. harvest [2]. - However, the tax exemption was abruptly terminated when export declarations reached a $70 billion cap, leading to concerns about the completion of existing orders [2]. Group 2: U.S. Involvement and Conditions - Following a meeting between Argentine President Milei and U.S. President Trump, the U.S. announced plans to purchase Argentine pesos and initiate a $20 billion currency swap negotiation [2][4]. - The U.S. conditions for this support included terminating the currency swap agreement with China, reinstating and increasing agricultural export tariffs, expediting U.S. mining permits in Argentina, and linking financial aid to Milei's political future [4][5]. Group 3: Argentina's Economic Strategy - Argentina's economy minister emphasized the importance of the China-Argentina currency swap agreement, which has been in place since 2009 and has expanded significantly, providing crucial liquidity for imports and debt repayments [7]. - The bilateral trade relationship is underscored by China's dominance as the largest buyer of Argentine soybeans and its significant role in Argentine sorghum exports, with 99.2% of sorghum exports going to China [9]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Long-term Cooperation - Chinese investments in Argentina cover critical infrastructure projects, enhancing the country's energy and transportation sectors, which are vital for agricultural exports [9][11]. - The ongoing lithium mining project, supported by Chinese technology and funding, aims to increase local processing rates significantly, contrasting with U.S. demands for exclusive mining rights [13]. Group 5: Geopolitical Implications - The interplay between U.S. and Chinese interests in Argentina highlights the geopolitical tensions affecting trade dynamics, with Argentina caught between the two powers [15]. - The recent developments indicate a shift from purely market-driven interactions to a complex landscape involving financial, monetary sovereignty, and strategic resource considerations [15].

新华社北京10月20日电 美国总统特朗普19日说，美国可以进口阿根廷牛肉，以压低美国国内牛肉 价格。 据美联社报道，美国国内牛肉价格已连续多月居高不下，主要原因包括干旱以及从墨西哥进口减 少。由于担心墨西哥畜牧业出现的螺旋蝇蛆病疫情蔓延至美国，美国从5月11日起暂停从墨西哥进口活 体牛、马和野牛，7月短暂恢复进口，但很快因墨西哥新增一例牲畜感染病例再次暂停。 特朗普当天在总统专机"空军一号"上告诉媒体记者："我们会从阿根廷购买一些牛肉。如果我们这 样做，可以让国内的牛肉价格降下来。" 美国本月早些时候宣布，直接购入阿根廷比索并与阿根廷中央银行敲定200亿美元货币互换框架协 议。不过，特朗普14日在白宫会晤到访的阿根廷总统米莱时说，如果米莱未能赢得本月26日举行的国会 中期选举，美国将停止向阿根廷提供金融支持。据多家媒体分析，此番言论表明特朗普政府有意干预阿 根廷国内选举，助推米莱领导的执政联盟胜选。（卜晓明） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant currency swap agreement worth $20 billion between the United States and Argentina, aimed at stabilizing Argentina's economy and supporting President Milei ahead of the upcoming elections [5][8]. Group 1: Currency Swap Agreement - The agreement is referred to as a "currency swap," but many U.S. media outlets describe it as "emergency credit," essentially a loan from the U.S. Treasury to the Milei government [6][8]. - The currency swap allows for a controlled exchange, where funds can be accessed gradually rather than in a lump sum [7]. - This marks the first large-scale U.S. financial assistance to a foreign government in economic distress since the $20 billion loan to Mexico in 1995 [8]. Group 2: Argentina's Foreign Exchange Reserves - Argentina's reported foreign exchange reserves stand at $33 billion, but much of this is not readily available for market support [13]. - Of the $33 billion, $13 billion is in RMB for trade with China, and $12 billion is theoretical reserves from commercial banks, which could lead to a loss of confidence if misused [14]. - After accounting for these factors, Argentina's actual foreign reserves are only a few billion dollars, raising concerns about its fiscal health [15]. Group 3: Implications for China - The U.S. support for Argentina indirectly benefits China, as it is Argentina's largest trading partner and investor, with a currency swap agreement worth 130 billion RMB [22]. - The U.S. Treasury's commitment to stabilize the peso market is seen as a way to mitigate risks for Chinese investments in Argentina [22]. Group 4: Political Context - The article highlights the unusual nature of U.S. support for Argentina, a country not traditionally aligned with U.S. interests, especially under a "America First" administration [24]. - The support for Milei is viewed as part of a broader strategy to counter leftist movements in Latin America, with the success of his reforms being crucial for U.S. interests [25][26].