1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking [1][3][6][18][23][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts such as palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are presented, along with the latest prices and percentage changes of currency indices [1] Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided [3] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from November 5th to 9th shows that temperatures will be above normal and precipitation will be near or below the median [6] - In the US Midwest, sporadic showers may disrupt early - November harvesting or other field operations, with variable weather and limited precipitation [8] - In central Brazil, showers have restarted, and more extensive rainfall is expected this week, which may affect soybean crop germination and early growth [9] 进出口及产量数据 - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% month - on - month, while ITS reported a 5.19% increase [10] - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil in November slightly higher than in October, with export taxes remaining unchanged [10] - The USDA may release several major agricultural reports in November, and analysts expect US soybean crushing volume in September to reach a record high [10][11] - The amount of soybean oil used to produce biofuels in the US in August decreased compared to July [11] - The soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso state is 76.13%, slightly lower than the historical average [12] - The rapeseed harvesting progress in Canada is high, and the export volume increased in the week ending October 26th, but decreased compared to the same period last year [12] - India's soybean meal exports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 11% [13] - The Baltic Dry Index declined, with different types of ships showing varying price trends [14] 国内供需 - On October 31st, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 26% compared to the previous trading day [16] - The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased, and the overall oil mill operating rate decreased [16] - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills in the 44th week was lower than expected [16] - The pig - raising profit improved, and the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 31st [16][17] Macro News International News - A Fed official believes that the Fed should not cut interest rates this week or in December [19] - Analysts' forecasts for oil prices remain largely unchanged, and OPEC+ may slightly increase its oil production target or pause production increases [19][20] Domestic News - On October 31st, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards, and the central bank achieved a net investment through reverse repurchase operations [22] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will list option contracts for soybean meal and corn futures [22] Fund Flows - On October 31st, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.226 billion yuan, with commodity futures having a net outflow of 2.724 billion yuan and stock index futures having a net outflow of 6.722 billion yuan, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 140 million yuan [25] Arbitrage Tracking - No relevant information provided

Core Viewpoint - The $20 billion aid plan from the U.S. to Argentina is seen as a controversial move that primarily benefits hedge funds heavily invested in Argentine assets, rather than the Argentine economy itself [1][2][9]. Group 1: U.S. Aid and Market Reactions - Argentina's recent midterm election results, where President Milei's party secured 41% of the votes and 64 seats in the House, have provided a crucial endorsement for his aggressive austerity policies, easing concerns for U.S. officials [1][4]. - Following the election, the Argentine peso appreciated by approximately 4%, and the 2046 U.S. dollar-denominated government bonds rose by 11 cents to about 67 cents, while the benchmark Merval index surged by 22% [4][6]. - U.S. mutual funds and ETFs hold about $5 billion in Argentine sovereign debt, with major players like Pimco, Fidelity, and BlackRock heavily invested [1][5]. Group 2: Criticism of the Aid Mechanism - Critics, including economist Paul Krugman, have labeled the aid as a "scam" designed to bail out hedge funds, suggesting that U.S. taxpayer money is merely propping up the peso to allow these funds to sell their Argentine assets at inflated prices [2][8]. - The U.S. Treasury is still deliberating on the collateral that Argentina can provide to protect U.S. taxpayers from potential losses, delaying the disbursement of the aid [2][7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Future Prospects - Investors are optimistic about the potential for a rebound in Argentine assets, with some already increasing their positions in Argentine pesos and dollar-denominated bonds ahead of the elections [5][6]. - If President Milei can successfully implement his economic turnaround plans, mutual funds and hedge funds could see even greater returns on their investments [6][11]. - The aid is intended to stabilize Argentina's fiscal situation and may help replenish dwindling foreign exchange reserves needed for upcoming debt repayments [10].

Core Insights - The U.S. has taken unprecedented direct intervention measures to stabilize financial markets in Argentina ahead of the crucial midterm elections for President Javier Milei's government [1][3] - The intervention is estimated to exceed $1 billion, with a significant focus on supporting the Argentine peso, which has depreciated by 21% over the past four months [1][4] Intervention Details - The U.S. Treasury, led by Secretary Bessent, has arranged a $20 billion currency swap line to enhance Argentina's dollar liquidity [3][6] - On October 22, the U.S. conducted its largest single-day dollar sale, estimated between $400 million and $500 million, to reverse the peso's five-day decline [4][6] - Estimates of the total U.S. intervention range from $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion, although official figures have not been disclosed [4][5] Market Reactions - Despite the U.S. intervention providing temporary support, the market remains cautious, with the peso still trading at the weak end of its official range [5][6] - The upcoming midterm elections are viewed as a critical political test for the Milei government, influencing public support for its reform agenda [5][6] - Analysts indicate that external support may not fully alleviate investor concerns until election results clarify the government's future [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, weather conditions in major production areas, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - news, and fund flows. It also offers insights into potential impacts on the market based on these factors. 3. Summary by Section Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented, such as the BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, etc. For example, the BMD palm oil 01 closed at 4495.00 with a - 0.13% daily and - 0.29% overnight change [1]. - The latest prices and percentage changes of currency exchange rates, including the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are given. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.95 with a 0.34% change [1]. Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are reported. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9490 with a basis of 90 and a 0 - change [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium/discounts for imported soybeans from different origins are provided. For example, the CNF quote for Brazilian soybeans is 488 dollars/ton with a 278 - cent/bu premium [2]. Production Area Weather - In the US, the soybean - producing states will have above - normal temperatures and precipitation from October 26 - 30. The Midwest will have limited precipitation from an approaching front, and the rainfall may relieve drought but delay crop harvest [3][5]. - Brazil will be drier this week, which is generally favorable for crops. A front will bring rain later, and the dry weather may allow farmers to plant soybeans quickly [6][7]. International Supply - Demand - SPPOMA reports that Malaysian palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71% month - on - month. AmSpec indicates that the palm oil export volume from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month [9]. - Anec forecasts that Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in October will be 734 and 209 million tons respectively [10]. - EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed in the 2025/26 season are lower than the same period last year [11]. - Wet weather in Ukraine has damaged sunflower and soybean crops, reducing production forecasts [11][12]. - Australia's August rapeseed exports increased compared to July but decreased compared to the same month in 2024. The 2025/26 crop harvest has just begun [12]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 1.1% to 2094 points, supported by the increase in Capesize and Panamax freight rates [13]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On October 21, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 59% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill operating rate increased slightly [15]. - As of October 21, the national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 3.1 million tons compared to October 14 [15]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 21. The prices of various agricultural products showed different changes [15]. Macro - news - International: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 98.9%. The annual growth rate of US Redbook retail sales from October 1 - 18 was 5%. The US API crude inventory decreased by 298.1 million barrels in the week ending October 17 [17]. - Domestic: On October 21, the USD/CNY exchange rate was adjusted downwards by 43 points, and the Chinese central bank conducted 1595 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 685 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows - On October 21, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 12.172 billion yuan, including 3.152 billion yuan in commodity futures (with a 102 - million - yuan net outflow in agricultural futures, 319 - million - yuan net inflow in chemical futures, 874 - million - yuan net outflow in black - series futures, and 3.808 - billion - yuan net inflow in metal futures), 8.542 billion yuan in stock - index futures, and 385 million yuan in bond futures [22].

Core Viewpoint - The Argentine peso continues to decline, reaching a historic low despite multiple interventions by the U.S. Treasury, driven by investor concerns over the upcoming midterm elections on October 26 [1][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Intervention and Market Response - The U.S. Treasury has intervened in the market by purchasing approximately $400 million worth of pesos since October 9, although this figure has not been confirmed by either government [4]. - A $20 billion currency swap arrangement was announced between the U.S. and Argentina, with discussions of potentially increasing this to $40 billion [5]. - Despite these measures, confidence in the peso has collapsed, leading to a significant demand for dollars as investors anticipate a sharp devaluation post-election [5][6]. Group 2: Political Uncertainty and Market Dynamics - The market turmoil began after President Milei's party faced setbacks in key local elections, raising concerns about his ability to implement reforms [6]. - Investors are closely watching the upcoming midterm elections, fearing that Milei may not secure enough support for his reform agenda, which has translated into a sell-off of the national currency [6][7]. - The demand for dollars remains strong and is expected to persist until the election results clarify the future of exchange rate policies [7]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Reserves and Devaluation Expectations - Argentina's central bank is facing dwindling hard currency reserves, with net reserves estimated to be below $5 billion [8]. - The low reserve levels have heightened fears that the Milei government may be forced to abandon the current exchange rate regime, leading to a significant devaluation of the peso [8]. - Offshore market indicators, such as non-deliverable forward (NDF) contracts, suggest that the market is pricing in a rapid depreciation of the peso beyond the official trading range, with predictions that the exchange rate could fall below 1600 pesos per dollar [8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the high domestic beef prices in the United States, attributed to drought conditions and reduced imports from Mexico due to livestock disease concerns [1] - The U.S. has suspended imports of live cattle from Mexico since May 11, with a brief resumption in July before halting again due to new infection cases [1] - President Trump announced the potential import of Argentine beef to lower domestic prices, indicating a strategic move to address rising costs [1] Summary by Sections - **Beef Prices in the U.S.** - U.S. domestic beef prices have remained high for several months due to drought and reduced imports from Mexico [1] - The suspension of live cattle imports from Mexico is a significant factor in the price increase [1] - **Import Suspension from Mexico** - The U.S. halted imports of live cattle from Mexico starting May 11 due to concerns over a livestock disease outbreak [1] - Although imports were briefly resumed in July, they were quickly suspended again following new infection reports [1] - **Potential Import from Argentina** - President Trump stated that the U.S. could import beef from Argentina to help reduce domestic beef prices [1] - This move is seen as a direct response to the ongoing high prices in the U.S. beef market [1]

Core Points - The Argentine peso has weakened as investors doubt the government's ability to maintain its trading band [1] - Despite a $20 billion swap line agreement with the U.S. Treasury, analysts believe it may not resolve the ongoing currency crisis [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has expressed commitment to support the Argentine peso ahead of upcoming legislative elections [2] Group 1: Currency Situation - The Argentine peso fell as investors are skeptical about the government's capacity to uphold the currency's trading band [1] - The central bank's agreement with the U.S. Treasury for a $20 billion swap line aims to provide access to necessary dollars [1] - Analysts suggest that the financial assistance may not be sufficient to stabilize the peso [1] Group 2: U.S. Support - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has pledged to act flexibly and forcefully to stabilize the Argentine currency [2] - The U.S. Treasury has intervened in the market by purchasing pesos on at least two occasions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Argentina has suspended export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil until October 31, creating a temporary cost advantage for global buyers, particularly benefiting Chinese companies facing low domestic soybean inventories [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - The suspension of the 26% export tax allowed Chinese buyers to quickly secure 10 vessels of soybeans, with potential orders increasing to 15 vessels, totaling over 2 million tons [1]. - The price of this batch of soybeans was nearly 200 RMB per ton lower than Brazilian prices, effectively supplementing domestic stocks and avoiding price volatility ahead of the U.S. harvest [2]. - However, the tax exemption was abruptly terminated when export declarations reached a $70 billion cap, leading to concerns about the completion of existing orders [2]. Group 2: U.S. Involvement and Conditions - Following a meeting between Argentine President Milei and U.S. President Trump, the U.S. announced plans to purchase Argentine pesos and initiate a $20 billion currency swap negotiation [2][4]. - The U.S. conditions for this support included terminating the currency swap agreement with China, reinstating and increasing agricultural export tariffs, expediting U.S. mining permits in Argentina, and linking financial aid to Milei's political future [4][5]. Group 3: Argentina's Economic Strategy - Argentina's economy minister emphasized the importance of the China-Argentina currency swap agreement, which has been in place since 2009 and has expanded significantly, providing crucial liquidity for imports and debt repayments [7]. - The bilateral trade relationship is underscored by China's dominance as the largest buyer of Argentine soybeans and its significant role in Argentine sorghum exports, with 99.2% of sorghum exports going to China [9]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Long-term Cooperation - Chinese investments in Argentina cover critical infrastructure projects, enhancing the country's energy and transportation sectors, which are vital for agricultural exports [9][11]. - The ongoing lithium mining project, supported by Chinese technology and funding, aims to increase local processing rates significantly, contrasting with U.S. demands for exclusive mining rights [13]. Group 5: Geopolitical Implications - The interplay between U.S. and Chinese interests in Argentina highlights the geopolitical tensions affecting trade dynamics, with Argentina caught between the two powers [15]. - The recent developments indicate a shift from purely market-driven interactions to a complex landscape involving financial, monetary sovereignty, and strategic resource considerations [15].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. plans to import beef from Argentina to lower domestic beef prices amid ongoing high prices due to drought and reduced imports from Mexico [1] Group 1: U.S. Beef Market - Domestic beef prices in the U.S. have remained high for several months, primarily due to drought conditions and a decrease in imports from Mexico [1] - The U.S. suspended imports of live cattle from Mexico on May 11 due to concerns over a livestock disease outbreak, briefly resuming in July before halting again due to new infection cases [1] Group 2: U.S.-Argentina Relations - The U.S. recently announced a currency swap agreement with Argentina's central bank worth $20 billion, indicating a strengthening of financial ties [1] - President Trump suggested that U.S. financial support to Argentina could be contingent on the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections, implying potential political influence in Argentina [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant currency swap agreement worth $20 billion between the United States and Argentina, aimed at stabilizing Argentina's economy and supporting President Milei ahead of the upcoming elections [5][8]. Group 1: Currency Swap Agreement - The agreement is referred to as a "currency swap," but many U.S. media outlets describe it as "emergency credit," essentially a loan from the U.S. Treasury to the Milei government [6][8]. - The currency swap allows for a controlled exchange, where funds can be accessed gradually rather than in a lump sum [7]. - This marks the first large-scale U.S. financial assistance to a foreign government in economic distress since the $20 billion loan to Mexico in 1995 [8]. Group 2: Argentina's Foreign Exchange Reserves - Argentina's reported foreign exchange reserves stand at $33 billion, but much of this is not readily available for market support [13]. - Of the $33 billion, $13 billion is in RMB for trade with China, and $12 billion is theoretical reserves from commercial banks, which could lead to a loss of confidence if misused [14]. - After accounting for these factors, Argentina's actual foreign reserves are only a few billion dollars, raising concerns about its fiscal health [15]. Group 3: Implications for China - The U.S. support for Argentina indirectly benefits China, as it is Argentina's largest trading partner and investor, with a currency swap agreement worth 130 billion RMB [22]. - The U.S. Treasury's commitment to stabilize the peso market is seen as a way to mitigate risks for Chinese investments in Argentina [22]. Group 4: Political Context - The article highlights the unusual nature of U.S. support for Argentina, a country not traditionally aligned with U.S. interests, especially under a "America First" administration [24]. - The support for Milei is viewed as part of a broader strategy to counter leftist movements in Latin America, with the success of his reforms being crucial for U.S. interests [25][26].