【阿根廷比索周三重挫突破政府设定交易区间，或致政府相关政策陷入混乱】阿根廷比索在周三遭遇重 挫，首次突破了政府设定的交易区间，这一情况可能会使政府控制通胀和积累外汇储备的政策陷入混 乱。 阿根廷比索兑美元下跌近0.4%，跌至1美元兑1,474.50比索，突破了交易区间上限，该日上限设定 为1美元兑1,474.345比索。这一交易区间限制是阿根廷4月与国际货币基金组织达成的200亿美元协议的 一部分。 总统哈维尔·米莱政府此前曾尝试通过收紧流动性、在期货市场抛售美元以及限制购买美元等 举措来阻止比索贬值。随着交易区间被突破，央行如今获准直接干预即期市场，而这将动用宝贵的外汇 储备。 Vontobel Asset Management投资组合经理Thierry Larose发出警告，称捍卫该区间目前可能代价高 昂。 Larose表示："他们不想死守，最好是上调区间。他们需要降低当地利率以避免衰退，并保持财政 的可持续性。只要是有序进行，就没问题。同样重要的是，要避免在一场他们不太可能打赢的战役中耗 尽外汇储备。" 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

报告摘要 米莱布省败选引发阿根廷股债汇"三杀" （一）选举结果：米莱执政联盟遭遇彻底失败 引发阿根廷金融市场动荡的直接催化剂是2025年9月7日布宜诺斯艾利斯省的省级选举结果 。在这次选举中，执政的自由前进 党遭遇了一场令人震惊的惨败。由现任省长阿克塞尔·基西洛夫领导的庇隆主义政党联盟"祖国力量联盟"获得了47%的选票， 而米莱的政党仅获得了34%的选票，这一巨大差距被米莱本人公开承认为"彻底失败"。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 1）阿根廷执政联盟7日在布宜诺斯艾利斯省议会选举中失利，导致该国金融市场8日剧烈动荡，阿根廷比索对美元汇率下跌近 6%，引发全球广泛关注。2）为何宏观经济的改善未能赢得民众支持？其原因在于米莱改革的"阵痛"对民众日常生活造成的冲 击，同时涉及米莱核心圈子的腐败指控，严重损害了他作为"反建制"和"反腐斗士"的信誉。3）选举结果公布后的9月8日，阿 根廷金融市场遭遇股债汇"三杀"，尽管阿根廷央行开始干预汇率，但是政策的不一致性反而加剧了投资者对政府政策稳定性的 担忧。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products. It also provides important fundamental information such as weather forecasts, international supply - demand data, and macro - economic news, along with details on fund flows and trading volumes. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities like palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD Malaysia palm oil 11 was 4422.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.74% and an overnight decline of 0.43% [1]. - Exchange rate information including the US dollar index and various currency exchange rates against the US dollar are given, along with their percentage changes [1]. 02 现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China was 9460, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different origins are presented [2]. 03 重要基本面信息 - **产区天气**: The future weather outlook (September 8 - 12) for US soybean - producing states shows that most areas will have lower - than - normal temperatures and precipitation close to or higher than normal. The Midwest will have local or sporadic precipitation and lower temperatures [3][5]. - **国际供需**: - Reuters survey predicts Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 to be 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July; production is expected to be 1.86 million tons, a 2.5% increase from July; and exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 10.7% increase from July [7]. - Forecasts for palm oil production in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand in different fiscal years are given. For example, Malaysia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be adjusted up to 19.3 million tons [8]. - USDA reports a private exporter's sale of 185,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - The Dutch Cooperative Bank expects Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season to increase by 1.5% compared to the previous year, and Brazil may harvest a record 175 million tons of soybeans [9]. - Information on soybean sales in Argentina, including cumulative sales and sales to different sectors (domestic oil mills and export industries), is provided [10]. - Forecasts for rapeseed production in the EU 27 + UK, Australia, and Germany are presented. For example, the EU 27 + UK's rapeseed production is expected to be 20.4 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous forecast [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index fell to a nearly two - week low due to the decline in freight rates of Capesize and Panamax ships [11]. - On September 3, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, and the trading volume of soybean meal also decreased. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate increased to 65.11% [12]. 04 宏观要闻 - **国际要闻**: - According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 3.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 96.6% [14]. - US economic data such as JOLTs job openings, factory orders, retail sales, mortgage application activity, and API crude oil inventory are reported [14]. - OPEC + will consider further increasing oil production at a Sunday meeting, but may also suspend the increase. The final decision has not been made [15]. - Eurozone economic data such as PPI and services PMI are presented [15]. - **国内要闻**: - On September 3, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1108, up 19 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [17]. - The People's Bank of China conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan due to 379.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities [17]. 05 资金流向 On September 3, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 7.763 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 5.08 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 12.843 billion yuan [19]. 06 套利跟踪 No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB April palm oil report is bearish due to a significant increase in production and higher-than-expected ending inventory [20]. - The USDA May soybean report is bullish as the estimated ending inventory for the 25/26 season is lower than market expectations [21]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - The closing price of Malaysian palm oil 08 (BMD) was 3948.00, with a previous-day decline of 1.44% and an overnight decline of 0.36% [1]. - The closing price of Brent 08 (ICE) was 65.61, with a previous-day increase of 0.75% and an overnight decline of -0.18% [1]. - The closing price of US crude oil 07 (NYMEX) was 63.34, with a previous-day increase of 0.48% and an overnight decline of -0.61% [1]. - The closing price of US soybeans 07 (CBOT) was 1041.00, with a previous-day increase of 0.63% and an overnight decline of -0.22% [1]. - The closing price of US soybean meal 07 (CBOT) was 294.30, with a previous-day decline of -0.07% and an overnight decline of -0.03% [1]. - The closing price of US soybean oil 07 (CBOT) was 46.81, with a previous-day increase of 1.25% and an overnight decline of -0.04% [1]. - The latest price of the US Dollar Index was 99.25, with an increase of 0.55% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) was 7.1869, with an increase of 0.03% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR/USD) was 4.2531, with an increase of 0.25% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR/USD) was 16223, with a decline of -0.42% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Brazilian Real (BRL/USD) was 5.6621, with a decline of -0.01% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Argentine Peso (ARS/USD) was 1184.000, with an increase of 0.34% [1]. - The exchange rate of the Singapore Dollar (SGD/USD) was 1.2866, with a decline of -0.11% [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2505, the spot price in East China was 8630, with a basis of 400 and a daily basis change of -50; in South China, it was 8600, with a basis of 370 and a daily basis change of -30 [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 7970, with a basis of 274 and a daily basis change of 0; in Jiangsu, it was 8000, with a basis of 304 and a daily basis change of 0; in Guangdong, it was 7980, with a basis of 284 and a daily basis change of 0; in Tianjin, it was 7910, with a basis of 214 and a daily basis change of 20 [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 2800, with a basis of -151 and a daily basis change of -46; in Jiangsu, it was 2800, with a basis of -151 and a daily basis change of -6; in Guangdong, it was 2790, with a basis of -161 and a daily basis change of -16; in Tianjin, it was 2870, with a basis of -81 and a daily basis change of -46 [2]. - The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans was 160 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote was 439 dollars per ton [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - From June 8 - 12, most of the major soybean-producing states in the US are expected to have above-average rainfall, and the central region will have lower temperatures [3]. - The weather in the northern part of the US Midwest is favorable, while the weather in the southern part may hinder planting [5]. - From May 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield increased by 1.9%, oil extraction rate increased by 0.3%, and production increased by 3.53% [6]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the previous month [7]. - SGS estimated that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from the previous month [7]. - India's edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month-on-month to 118 tons, the highest in five months [7]. - As of May 30, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.11 per bushel, a 1% decrease from the previous week [8]. - As of May 31, the harvest rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season was 99.8% [8]. - StoneX estimated that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2024/25 season would be 1.6825 billion tons, the second-season corn production would be 1.061 billion tons, and the total corn production would be 1.34 billion tons [8]. - IMEA reported that the expected soybean planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season was 13.0082 million hectares, with a 1.67% increase from the previous year; the expected yield per hectare was 60.45 bags, a decrease of 8.81%; and the expected production was 47.1844 million tons, a decrease of 7.29% [9]. - As of June 1, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season were 2.63 million tons, soybeans were 12.94 million tons, soybean meal was 17.68 million tons, and rapeseed was 6.4 million tons [9]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose for the fifth consecutive trading day, supported by the freight rates of Capesize and Panamax ships [10]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On June 3, the trading volume of soybean oil was 7000 tons, palm oil was 660 tons, and the total trading volume was 7660 tons, a 20% decrease from the previous trading day [12]. - On June 3, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 5.58 tons, an increase of 1.98 tons from the previous day. The spot trading volume was 3.58 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons from the previous day, and the far-month basis trading volume was 2.00 tons, an increase of 2.00 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of domestic oil mills was 65.33%, an increase of 2.58% from the previous day [12]. - As of May 30, 2025, the total commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in key domestic regions was 188.79 tons, an increase of 8.61 tons or 4.78% from the previous week [13]. - As of May 30, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 36.4 tons, an increase of 2.53 tons or 7.47% from the previous week, and a decrease of 1.95 tons or 5.08% from the same period last year [13]. - As of May 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 75.49 tons, an increase of 5.77 tons or 8.28% from the previous week [13]. - As of June 3, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 574.083 tons, an increase of 7.015 tons from May 26; the port inventory of soybean oil was 71.4 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons from the previous week [13]. - On June 3, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.73, a decrease of 0.42 points from before the holiday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 113.89, a decrease of 0.49 points from before the holiday [14]. 04 Macroeconomic News - **International News** - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 98.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 1.2% [17]. - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.3% [17]. - The US factory orders in April decreased by 3.7% month - on - month, worse than the expected - 3.1% [18]. - The number of job openings in the US in April was 7.391 million, higher than the expected 7.1 million [18]. - The OECD predicted that the global economic growth rate in 2025 and 2026 would be 2.9%, a 0.2 and 0.1 percentage - point decrease from the March forecast [18]. - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending May 30 decreased by 3.3 million barrels, more than the expected - 0.9 million barrels [18]. - The preliminary Eurozone CPI in May was flat month - on - month and 1.9% year - on - year, lower than expected [18]. - The Eurozone unemployment rate in April was 6.2% [18]. - **Domestic News** - On June 3, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1869, up 21 points [19]. - On June 3, the People's Bank of China conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [19]. - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [19]. - In May, the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October last year [19]. 05 Key Information Analysis - The MPOB April palm oil report showed that the ending inventory increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, production increased by 21.52% to 1.686 million tons, exports increased by 9.62% to 1.102 million tons, imports decreased by 52.17% to 0.058 million tons, and consumption decreased by 24.69% to 0.339 million tons. The report was bearish [20]. - The USDA May soybean report increased the 24/25 US soybean exports by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was lowered to 0.35 billion bushels. For the 25/26 season, the expected yield per acre was 52.5 bushels, production was 4.34 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was estimated to be 0.295 billion bushels, lower than market expectations. The report was bullish [21]. 06 Capital Flows - On June 3, 2025, the net inflow of funds into the futures market was 17.17 billion yuan, including 12.004 billion yuan into commodity futures (1.332 billion yuan into agricultural product futures, 1.699 billion yuan into chemical futures, 0.774 billion yuan into black - series futures, and 8.199 billion yuan into metal futures) and 5.166 billion yuan into stock index futures [24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the collective appreciation of Asian currencies during the May Day holiday, primarily driven by the significant appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, which rose by 6.8% [2][8]. - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar is attributed to exporters selling US dollars and insurance companies' foreign exchange hedging operations, which may have intensified the currency's rise [11][12]. - The article suggests that the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar may not be an isolated case, as a weakening US dollar could lead to a repatriation of foreign assets, further driving local currency appreciation [11][12]. Group 2 - During the May Day holiday, global asset performance leaned towards a "risk-on" sentiment, with major stock markets experiencing gains, particularly the Nasdaq index, which rose by 3% [4][18]. - The US non-farm payrolls for April exceeded expectations, with an increase of 177,000 jobs, indicating a robust labor market and alleviating recession concerns [5][29]. - The US GDP for Q1 turned negative for the first time since Q3 2022, recording a -0.3% growth rate, primarily due to a significant decline in net exports [5][35]. Group 3 - The Bank of Japan decided to pause interest rate hikes, maintaining the policy rate at 0.5%, citing uncertainties related to tariff policies as a key factor [5][36]. - The OPEC+ meeting on May 3 agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, which is three times the original planned increase, leading to a significant drop in oil prices [6][41]. - Warren Buffett announced his retirement at the end of the year during the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, emphasizing the importance of not using trade as a weapon and expressing optimism about the US economy [7][42].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in global financial markets, industrial supply - demand, and macroeconomic news during the 2025 May Day holiday, covering commodities, currencies, and key economic indicators in both international and domestic markets. 3. Summary by Directory 2025 May Day Foreign Market Changes - **Commodity Prices**: During the May Day holiday, there were fluctuations in various commodity prices. For example, BMD palm oil fell 2.12%, NYMEX crude oil dropped 4.74%, and COMEX gold rose 1.77%. The dollar index rose 0.34%, the Dow Jones Industrial Index increased 1.71%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 2.95% [2]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The Argentine peso against the US dollar had a 2.33% decline, while other major currencies like the Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, and Indonesian rupiah remained stable against the US dollar [2]. 2025 May Day Industrial Supply - Demand - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's April palm oil production is expected to increase, with different institutions' data showing growth ranging from 14.74% to 24.62%. Export data from different institutions vary, with some showing an increase and others a decrease. Indonesia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in May, and India's palm oil imports in April decreased by 24% [3][4][5]. - **Soybeans**: As of April 29, about 15% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, a 6% reduction from the previous week. As of May 4, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than expected. US soybean export sales increased, and Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 1.684 billion tons [6][7][10]. - **Other Crops**: Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 21.6% in the week ending April 27, and Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 620,000 tons [13]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Agricultural Products**: On April 30, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 85% compared to the previous trading day. The opening rate of domestic oil mills decreased by 0.49%, and the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" dropped 0.27 points [15]. 2025 May Day Macroeconomic News - **International News** - **US Economy**: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in May is 97.3%. The US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate was 3.5%, and the Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was - 0.3%. The April non - farm payrolls were 177,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2% [16][17]. - **OPEC**: OPEC's April oil production decreased by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.724 million barrels per day. OPEC + plans to increase production in June and possibly again in July [19]. - **Eurozone**: The Eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate was 1.2%, the April CPI annual rate was 2.2%, and the May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [19][20]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy**: On April 30, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.2014, down 15 points. The central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 422.8 billion yuan [22]. - **Economic Indicators**: China's April manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [22].