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航发动力(600893):2025年半年报点评:1H25业绩持续承压,看好“航发链长”长期成长性
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-28 09:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Views - The company is currently experiencing performance pressure due to a transition between old and new models, but its long-term growth potential is viewed positively. The company is a leading enterprise in China's aviation engine production and research capabilities, actively participating in the development of domestic commercial engines and expanding into the low-altitude economy and general aviation markets [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 14.1 billion yuan, a year-over-year decline of 24.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 92 million yuan, down 84.6% year-over-year. The revenue decline was primarily due to changes in customer demand and lower-than-expected deliveries, while the profit drop was attributed to reduced revenue and increased financial expenses [1]. - For the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.93 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 35.4%, and a net profit of 84 million yuan, down 80.8% year-over-year. The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 11.0%, down 0.3 percentage points year-over-year, while the net margin was 1.1%, down 2.5 percentage points year-over-year [1][2]. Product Segmentation - The revenue from aviation engines and related products was 12.89 billion yuan, a year-over-year decline of 24.9%, accounting for 91% of total revenue. The gross margin for this segment decreased by 0.35 percentage points to 10.0%. In contrast, foreign trade exports generated revenue of 870 million yuan, down 13.5%, but with a gross margin increase of 5.45 percentage points to 21.8% [2]. Cost and Expenses - The company's expense ratio remained relatively stable, with a total expense ratio increase of 2.0 percentage points to 9.1%. The financial expense ratio rose to 1.8% from 0.8% in the previous year, while the research and development expense ratio increased by 0.5 percentage points to 1.5% [3]. Future Projections - The company expects to achieve a revenue of 47.663 billion yuan in 2025, with a completion rate of 29.6% in the first half of the year. The projected net profit for 2025 is 592 million yuan, with a completion rate of 15.5% in the first half [1][5]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025 to 2027 are 596 million yuan, 1.053 billion yuan, and 1.386 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 180x, 102x, and 77x [4][5].