Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the domestic airline industry is currently in a low season, with a modest increase in capacity deployment of 1.1% year-on-year in June, but a decrease of approximately 2.9% compared to May. Demand remains weak, leading airlines to adopt a more restrained approach to capacity deployment [2][10][14] - Eastern Airlines has shown a notable increase in passenger load factor, rising against the trend of other major airlines, indicating a strategic focus on improving load factors [2][30] - The report anticipates that as the peak summer travel season approaches, operational pressures on the industry are expected to improve, with potential for higher ticket prices due to increased load factors [3][11][38] Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Route Capacity Deployment - In June, listed companies increased domestic route capacity by 1.1% year-on-year, but saw a decrease of about 2.9% month-on-month. Major airlines like Eastern Airlines and Air China reduced capacity by 5.1% and 4.3% respectively compared to May [2][14][16] - The overall passenger load factor for listed companies decreased by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month but increased by approximately 1.7 percentage points year-on-year. Eastern Airlines' load factor continued to rise, reflecting its prioritization of this metric in sales strategies [30][38] 2. International Route Capacity Deployment - International route capacity for listed airlines increased by about 17.4% year-on-year in June, but decreased by 1.5% compared to May. The demand growth for international routes appears to be slowing [3][55] - The passenger load factor for international routes improved by 0.9 percentage points month-on-month and by 1.0 percentage point year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery despite ongoing demand pressures [3][55] 3. Airport Throughput - Major airports such as Shanghai and Shenzhen reported year-on-year growth in international passenger throughput of 17% and 19% respectively. However, there has been a recent slowdown in growth, with some airports experiencing a decline in international passenger numbers over the past two months [68][70]

中国国航（601111.SH）：亏损持续 缩窄，关注后续票价改善 2025 年 4 月 9 日 推荐/维持 中国国航 公司报告 事件：24 年公司实现营收 1666.99 亿元，同比增长 18.14%，归母净利润为-2.37 亿元，较 23 年同期的-10.46 亿元减亏 77.32%，扣非后归母净利润-25.40 亿 元，较 23 年的-31.77 亿元减亏 20.06%。24Q4 公司扣非后净利润-29.72 亿元， 亏损较 23 年同期的-23.04 亿元略有扩大，主要系汇兑损失导致四季度财务费 用 23.11 亿元，较 23Q4 的 10.90 亿元明显提升。 24 年量升价降明显，客运业务毛利率基本持平 23 年：2024 公司实现客运收 入 1517.89 亿元，同比增加 212.72 亿元。拆分看，公司客运运力投放同比提 升 21.74%，客座率同比提升 6.63pct 至 79.85%，但客公里收益下降 12.41% 至 0.5338 元。公司年报显示，24 年因运力投入上升而增加收入 283.73 亿元， 因客座率上升而增加收入 143.92 亿元，因收益水平下降而减少收入 214.93 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China National Aviation (601111.SH) [2][10] Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 166.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.14%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -237 million yuan, a reduction in loss of 77.32% compared to the same period in 2023 [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in capacity and passenger load factor, but a decline in passenger kilometer revenue, indicating a trend of volume increase but price decrease across the industry [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from improvements in ticket prices in 2025, as the focus shifts from increasing load factors to enhancing revenue quality [5][10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 4.13% in its passenger business, slightly up from the previous year, but still at a low level [5] - The company plans to introduce 47 new aircraft in 2025 while retiring 17, maintaining a low growth rate in supply to alleviate excess capacity pressure [5] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.98 billion, 7.79 billion, and 9.44 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.23, 0.45, and 0.54 yuan [10]