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张仲麟:黔驴技穷的特朗普,还能卡住C919脖子吗?
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-06-01 07:32
Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has suspended licenses allowing U.S. companies to sell products and technologies to COMAC, effectively restricting exports of critical components like the LEAP-1C engine used in China's C919 aircraft, which may reignite trade tensions between the U.S. and China [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact on C919 and Aviation Industry - The suspension of exports is seen as a retaliatory measure against China's restrictions on rare earth exports, which were in response to U.S. semiconductor limitations [1][3]. - The C919 aircraft is currently transitioning from low-speed production to full-scale production, and while the export ban may slow down progress, existing inventory can sustain production for a while [7][8]. - The ban affects various components and systems of the C919, including flight control, hydraulic, and avionics systems, but China has made significant advancements in these areas and can develop alternatives [8][10]. Group 2: Historical Context and Strategic Responses - The U.S. government's approach to trade and technology restrictions has been consistent, using sudden bans and tariffs as leverage while also hinting at negotiation opportunities [4][5]. - Previous sanctions, such as those against Huawei, did not cripple the targeted companies, suggesting that the impact of the current ban on C919 may be manageable [5][8]. - The C919 project has already initiated plans for a fully domestic configuration, which may accelerate in response to the current sanctions, reflecting a proactive strategy in the face of external pressures [11][12]. Group 3: Industry Sentiment and Future Outlook - The aviation industry in China is characterized by resilience and a commitment to developing indigenous capabilities, with significant investments in testing facilities and advanced technologies [10][12]. - The potential for retaliatory measures from China in the commercial aircraft sector is acknowledged, indicating a complex interdependence in the global aviation market [14][15]. - There is optimism regarding the long-term prospects of the C919 project, despite the immediate challenges posed by the U.S. export ban, as the industry adapts and evolves [15].