作者 | 远禾 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 而今年国庆，由于国庆和中秋构成 8 天假期，凑长假变得相当便利，今年国庆长途旅行热度显著上升。 数据显示，今年假期首日， 全国出行人次预计超过 3.4 亿，创下历史峰值。家庭游客 也成为出行的 绝对主力，在出行人群中占比高 达 43% 。 航旅纵横的数据显示，截至 9 月 29 日，国庆中秋假期国内航线的机票预订量已突破 1189 万张，日均预订量较去年同期增长约 3% 。 在出行数据的激增之下，今年国庆的机票价格大涨。 在旅游板块已经提前消耗预期的情况下，航司能否在节后继续上涨呢？ 01 2016 年至今，航空板块持续震荡了十年。也是因此，航空板块在市场上关注度一直较低。 回顾过往，航空板块仅有两次较大的涨幅。 一次，是 2006 年至 2007 年，一次是 2014 年至 2015 年，不难发现，这两年， A 股也处于著名的牛市行情。 近一个月来，得益于旅游板块的整体上涨，航空板块也持续上涨。 Wind 数据显示，自 9 月初以来，航空运输精选指数上涨 6% ，华夏航空、吉祥航空近一个月涨幅均超 10% 。 今年国庆出行最大的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Viewpoints - Continuous efforts to combat "involution" in the aviation industry are underway, with expectations for ticket prices to stabilize and improve [9] - The demand side remains resilient due to endogenous growth in domestic demand and ongoing recovery in international routes [9] - Supply constraints are expected to persist, and a decrease in oil prices will alleviate cost pressures [9] - Positive outlook on domestic regional market leader Huaxia Airlines and low-cost airline leader Spring Airlines, which leverage their core competitiveness to optimize "traffic-cost-price" dynamics [9] - Anticipation of elasticity release from major airlines represented by Air China, with a favorable recovery in international routes and efficient operation of wide-body aircraft expected to benefit Juneyao Airlines [9] Summary by Sections 1. Airline Data Analysis for July - In July, the overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates were led by Spring Airlines (10.4%), followed by Eastern Airlines (7.4%), Southern Airlines (6.7%), Air China (2.3%), and Juneyao Airlines (-3.0%) [2] - RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth rates for July were highest for Eastern Airlines (9.4%), followed by Spring Airlines (8.6%), Southern Airlines (7.3%), Air China (2.2%), and Juneyao Airlines (-3.2%) [2] - Cumulative ASK growth from January to July showed Spring Airlines (9.6%) leading, followed by Eastern Airlines (7.5%) and Southern Airlines (5.7%) [2] - Cumulative RPK growth for the same period was highest for Eastern Airlines (11.8%) [2] 2. Passenger Load Factor - In July, the passenger load factor was highest for Spring Airlines at 91.9%, followed by Juneyao Airlines and Eastern Airlines both at 84.8% [4] - Cumulative load factor from January to July showed Spring Airlines at 90.7%, with Southern Airlines at 85.3% [4] 3. Fleet Size - As of July 2025, the five listed airlines collectively added 7 aircraft, with a year-on-year fleet size increase of 3.5% [4]