Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a steady increase in flight execution volume and passenger load factors, indicating a recovery in demand and potential for profitability improvement [1][2][5] Flight Volume and Passenger Load Factors - As of October 14, 2025, the daily flight execution volume in civil aviation is 15,539 flights, a 3.73% increase from 14,980 flights in the same period of 2024 [1][2] - Passenger load factors for July to September 2025 are 84.5%, 87.5%, and 85.8%, all exceeding the levels from the same period in 2019 [1][2] - The average passenger load factor for the three major airlines in September 2025 is 85.7%, up 5 percentage points from 2019 [2] Ticket Price Recovery - The average domestic economy class ticket price in September 2025 is 697 yuan, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, and a recovery from a 5% decrease compared to September 2019 [2] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the average domestic economy class ticket price is 849 yuan, reflecting a 0.3% increase year-on-year and a recovery from a 1.4% decrease compared to the same holiday in 2019 [2] International and Domestic Flight Growth - The average daily execution volume of international flights and flights to Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan is 2,154 flights, a significant increase of 16.70% year-on-year [3] - Domestic flight execution volume averages 13,885 flights per day, a 1.91% increase year-on-year [3] - By June 2025, international flight volumes have recovered to 88% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [3] Supply Constraints and Future Outlook - Global aircraft manufacturers are facing significant supply chain disruptions, leading to a slowdown in aircraft deliveries, with Boeing and Airbus expected to deliver 348 and 766 aircraft in 2024, respectively [4] - The expansion of aviation capacity is expected to remain constrained due to regulatory challenges and the aging fleet [4] Oil Price Trends and Competitive Landscape - International oil prices have been on a downward trend in 2025, which is beneficial for airline profitability due to reduced fuel costs [5] - The "anti-involution" policy initiated in June 2025 aims to address the issue of continuously declining ticket prices, with expectations for price recovery in the aviation sector [5] Investment Recommendations - The combination of low supply growth, recovering demand, and decreasing oil prices suggests a favorable environment for ticket price recovery and airline profitability [6] - Continuous monitoring of demand recovery, particularly in business travel and international flight resumption, is advised [6] - Recommended stocks for investment include Huaxia Airlines, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Spring Airlines [6]