国内航线扣油平均票价增长5.9%，日均客座率87.9%，比2024年同期日均增加3.5个百分点。同时，国际 市场也迎来暑运后的高峰。中外航空公司日均执行国际客运航班超过2000班，比2024年国庆假期增长 10.6%。在此票价和客座率水平下，航司盈利较2024年同期明显改善。另外，10月15日起，MSC、达 飞、赫伯罗特等全球航运巨头集体涨价，远东至欧洲、非洲、南美等多条航线运价上调600-2000美元/ 箱。航运业结束数月低迷，进入结构性上升周期。分析人士认为，本轮涨价背后，是欧美港口运力收 缩、红海非洲航线调整、全球制造业补库存三重因素叠加。或受益于公商务需求回暖，收益水平近期同 样有所提高。根据航班管家数据，第36周—41周（9月1日—10月12日）国内线含油票价转正，同增 3.0%（7—8月同比下降6.5%）。另外受益于行业"反内卷"以及航司收益管理不断精进，叠加基数较 低，华泰证券认为，收益水平的提高有望在四季度及之后延续。同时油价下跌有望降低成本压力，有助 于航司兑现盈利弹性。此外，人民币升值也是一大助力。（券商中国） ...

Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a steady increase in flight execution volume and passenger load factors, indicating a recovery in demand and potential for profitability improvement [1][2][5] Flight Volume and Passenger Load Factors - As of October 14, 2025, the daily flight execution volume in civil aviation is 15,539 flights, a 3.73% increase from 14,980 flights in the same period of 2024 [1][2] - Passenger load factors for July to September 2025 are 84.5%, 87.5%, and 85.8%, all exceeding the levels from the same period in 2019 [1][2] - The average passenger load factor for the three major airlines in September 2025 is 85.7%, up 5 percentage points from 2019 [2] Ticket Price Recovery - The average domestic economy class ticket price in September 2025 is 697 yuan, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, and a recovery from a 5% decrease compared to September 2019 [2] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the average domestic economy class ticket price is 849 yuan, reflecting a 0.3% increase year-on-year and a recovery from a 1.4% decrease compared to the same holiday in 2019 [2] International and Domestic Flight Growth - The average daily execution volume of international flights and flights to Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan is 2,154 flights, a significant increase of 16.70% year-on-year [3] - Domestic flight execution volume averages 13,885 flights per day, a 1.91% increase year-on-year [3] - By June 2025, international flight volumes have recovered to 88% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [3] Supply Constraints and Future Outlook - Global aircraft manufacturers are facing significant supply chain disruptions, leading to a slowdown in aircraft deliveries, with Boeing and Airbus expected to deliver 348 and 766 aircraft in 2024, respectively [4] - The expansion of aviation capacity is expected to remain constrained due to regulatory challenges and the aging fleet [4] Oil Price Trends and Competitive Landscape - International oil prices have been on a downward trend in 2025, which is beneficial for airline profitability due to reduced fuel costs [5] - The "anti-involution" policy initiated in June 2025 aims to address the issue of continuously declining ticket prices, with expectations for price recovery in the aviation sector [5] Investment Recommendations - The combination of low supply growth, recovering demand, and decreasing oil prices suggests a favorable environment for ticket price recovery and airline profitability [6] - Continuous monitoring of demand recovery, particularly in business travel and international flight resumption, is advised [6] - Recommended stocks for investment include Huaxia Airlines, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Spring Airlines [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that major Chinese airlines have reported an increase in key operational metrics for September, leading to a rise in their stock prices [1] - China Eastern Airlines saw a 3.63% year-on-year increase in passenger capacity and an 8.67% increase in passenger turnover for September, with a seat occupancy rate of 87.57%, up 4.06 percentage points year-on-year [1] - China Southern Airlines reported a 4.43% increase in passenger capacity and a 5.25% increase in passenger turnover for September [1] - Air China experienced a 5.6% increase in passenger turnover and an average seat occupancy rate of 83.2%, which is up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities noted a slight slowdown in capacity growth for airlines in September post-summer travel season, while maintaining high seat occupancy rates [2] - The report indicates that due to a recovery in business travel demand, ticket prices have started to show positive year-on-year growth, with domestic ticket prices increasing by 3.0% from September 1 to October 12 [2] - The outlook suggests that the tightening of flight schedules in the new season, combined with a low base effect, may continue to support positive ticket price growth into the fourth quarter, while falling oil prices could alleviate cost pressures for airlines [2]