Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a steady increase in flight execution volume and passenger load factors, indicating a recovery in demand and potential for profitability improvement [1][2][5] Flight Volume and Passenger Load Factors - As of October 14, 2025, the daily flight execution volume in civil aviation is 15,539 flights, a 3.73% increase from 14,980 flights in the same period of 2024 [1][2] - Passenger load factors for July to September 2025 are 84.5%, 87.5%, and 85.8%, all exceeding the levels from the same period in 2019 [1][2] - The average passenger load factor for the three major airlines in September 2025 is 85.7%, up 5 percentage points from 2019 [2] Ticket Price Recovery - The average domestic economy class ticket price in September 2025 is 697 yuan, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, and a recovery from a 5% decrease compared to September 2019 [2] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the average domestic economy class ticket price is 849 yuan, reflecting a 0.3% increase year-on-year and a recovery from a 1.4% decrease compared to the same holiday in 2019 [2] International and Domestic Flight Growth - The average daily execution volume of international flights and flights to Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan is 2,154 flights, a significant increase of 16.70% year-on-year [3] - Domestic flight execution volume averages 13,885 flights per day, a 1.91% increase year-on-year [3] - By June 2025, international flight volumes have recovered to 88% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [3] Supply Constraints and Future Outlook - Global aircraft manufacturers are facing significant supply chain disruptions, leading to a slowdown in aircraft deliveries, with Boeing and Airbus expected to deliver 348 and 766 aircraft in 2024, respectively [4] - The expansion of aviation capacity is expected to remain constrained due to regulatory challenges and the aging fleet [4] Oil Price Trends and Competitive Landscape - International oil prices have been on a downward trend in 2025, which is beneficial for airline profitability due to reduced fuel costs [5] - The "anti-involution" policy initiated in June 2025 aims to address the issue of continuously declining ticket prices, with expectations for price recovery in the aviation sector [5] Investment Recommendations - The combination of low supply growth, recovering demand, and decreasing oil prices suggests a favorable environment for ticket price recovery and airline profitability [6] - Continuous monitoring of demand recovery, particularly in business travel and international flight resumption, is advised [6] - Recommended stocks for investment include Huaxia Airlines, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Spring Airlines [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The aviation industry shows a long-term growth logic, with passenger traffic in January-February increasing by 6% year-on-year, and load factors recovering to 2019 levels. The new flight season is expected to support supply and demand recovery, with anticipated growth in business travel and ticket price recovery. Improved cost pressures may aid in better-than-expected profit recovery [3][4] Summary by Sections Passenger Traffic - During the Spring Festival period of 40 days, passenger volume increased by 7.4% year-on-year, reaching a new high. For January-February, the industry passenger volume grew by 6% year-on-year, which is an 18% increase compared to 2019. Domestic and international traffic increased by 3% and 39% year-on-year, respectively, with international traffic showing positive growth for the first time compared to 2019 [3][20] Load Factor - The industry load factor for January-February was 84%, up by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, remaining consistent with 2019 levels. This trend continues from December 2024, where the increase compared to 2019 has narrowed [20][21] Ticket Prices - By the end of 2024, airlines' revenue management strategies have positively changed, continuing into the Spring Festival. Due to high base numbers and a reduction in fuel surcharges, it is estimated that domestic ticket prices fell by 5% year-on-year in January-February, with prices including fuel dropping by nearly 10%. After the Lantern Festival, domestic ticket prices remained stable year-on-year, and recently began to rise with the recovery of business travel post the Two Sessions [3][20] Airline Operations - In January-February, the turnover of airlines continued to improve year-on-year, with expectations that the growth rate of domestic Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) will gradually decrease. The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see continued improvement in fleet turnover and load factors, with a year-on-year increase in ASK of 5% for the three major airlines compared to 2019 [3][20] Flight Schedule Changes - The summer flight season will begin on March 30, 2025. The total planned flight volume is expected to decrease by 3% year-on-year, while actual flight operations are anticipated to stabilize. Domestic flight plans are expected to decrease by 3.9% year-on-year, while international flight plans are projected to increase by 4% year-on-year, recovering nearly 84% compared to the summer season of 2019 [3][20] Profitability Outlook - The report suggests that the recovery in profitability for airlines may exceed expectations due to improved unit non-fuel cost pressures and a 10% year-on-year decrease in aviation fuel prices. The consensus among airlines is that ticket price recovery is expected in 2025, with a focus on business demand growth and ticket price recovery [3][20] Company Ratings - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for several airlines, including Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [3][32]