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航运衍生品数据日报-20250528
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 03:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The EC market is experiencing a volatile decline. Spot prices in May have slightly decreased, while airlines are attempting to raise June freight rates on European routes. The market is influenced by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on US routes. The 06 - 08 contract spread is narrowing, and the strategy is to gradually take profits on long positions and arbitrage [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - **Container Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1586, up 7.21% from the previous value. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1107, up 0.23%. Different routes show various changes, such as SCFI - US West rising 5.95% and SCFIS - Northwest Europe falling 1.44% [5]. - **EC Contracts**: Most EC contracts show a decline, e.g., EC2506 has a current value of 1782.0, down 3.23%. The open interest of some contracts has decreased, like EC2506 open interest dropping by 1956. The monthly spreads also show minor changes [5]. Market News - **Tariff News**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days. Trump may set new tariff rates for many trading partners in 2 - 3 weeks, and the US threatens to impose 50% tariffs on the EU starting June 1st [6][7][8]. - **Other News**: The fourth - round Japan - US tariff negotiation is scheduled for the 30th. A Palestinian official says Hamas agrees to a Gaza cease - fire proposal, but Israel refutes it [7][8]. EC Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The average price of May spot is between 1700 - 1800$/FEU, with a slight decline. Airlines try to raise June freight rates on European routes to 3200 - 3300$/FEU [9]. - **Futures Market**: After the Sino - US negotiation results, the contracts first rose and then entered a volatile phase. The 06 - 08 contract spread is narrowing as the market focuses more on the 06 contract [9]. Strategy - The strategy is to gradually take profits on long positions and arbitrage [10].
航运衍生品数据日报-20250519
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 08:11
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is about shipping derivatives data and the market situation of EC shipping futures [4][5][9] Group 2: Shipping Rate Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1345, 1106, 2347, 1455, 3335, and 1161 respectively, with daily changes of 0.32%, -1.31%, 3.30%, 10.19%, 1.58%, and -3.25% [5] - The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1303 and 2089 respectively, with daily changes of -5.54% and 0.00% [5] Group 3: Shipping Futures - The current values of EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1685.0, 2280.0, 1445.0, 1595.0, 1419.5, and 1241.7 respectively, with daily changes of -5.72%, -3.36%, -1.34%, -1.01%, -2.04%, and -2.47% [5] - The current values of EC2506, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 positions are 34207, 48759, 23558, 5138, 3214, and 3463 respectively, with daily changes of -4355, 245, -898, 34, -80, and 8 [5] - The current values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 spreads are 835.0, -150.0, and 353.3 respectively, with daily changes of -59.6, -3.5, and 15.3 [5] Group 4: Market News - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days [6] - US President Trump said that the US may unilaterally set new tariff rates for many trading partners in the next two to three weeks [7] - Hamas and Israel held a new round of cease - fire negotiations in Doha [8] - The US reduced the tariff on small parcels from 120% to 54% [8] Group 5: Market Analysis and Strategy - The EC market showed a downward trend with a divergence between near and far months [9] - The average price of May spot remained between 1700 - 1800 $/FEU, with a slight decline compared to early May [9] - Affected by the news of China - US tariff negotiations and the recovery of demand on the US route, airlines collectively tried to raise the freight rate on the European route in June to 3200 $/FEU, except for Maersk, which quoted 1800 $/FEU until mid - June [9] - The market rose rapidly due to the better - than - expected news of the first China - US tariff negotiation in Switzerland and the airlines' simultaneous increase of June freight rates. After filling the gap, short - term positive factors were exhausted, and the near - month contract fell on Friday [9] - The strategy is to gradually take profits on long positions and arbitrage [9]