Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data - The present values of Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1317, 1176, 1867, 1294, 2605, 1418, 1859, and 2424 respectively [4]. - The previous values of these indices are 1458, 1209, 2084, 1305, 2896, 1595, 1954, and 2756 respectively [4]. - The percentage changes of these indices are -9.68%, -2.74%, -10.41%, -0.84%, -10.05%, -11.10%, -4.86%, and -12.05% respectively [4]. Group 2: Market News and Geopolitical Situation - Mixed signals from the US and Iran have led to a slight decline in the market's probability prediction of a military strike. Iranian senior officials said efforts to start negotiations with the US are making progress [5]. - According to the Wall Street Journal, the possibility of the US launching an air strike on Iran in the near term is low as the US is still moving air - defense capabilities to the region [5]. - The USS Abraham Lincoln has left the Gulf of Oman and entered the Indian Ocean as part of a retreat [5]. Group 3: EC (European Container) Market - The EC market shows a volatile trend. The spot prices are in a pre - holiday decline, with different adjustments among alliances [6]. - In the GEMINI alliance, Maersk's opening price in WK6 dropped to 2000 - 2100 dollars/FEU and further to 1995 dollars/FEU in WK7, while Hapag - Lloyd maintained 2300 - 2500 dollars/FEU in WK6 and remained stable in WK7 [6]. - In the OA alliance, the price in WK6 slightly fell to around 2500 dollars/FBU, and in WK7, COSCO Shipping in North China ports adjusted to 2200 - 2300 dollars/FBU, with East China ports likely to follow [6]. - In the PA alliance, the price fluctuated between 2200 - 2400 dollars/FEU in WK6, and in WK7, influenced by ONE's WK8 list price of 2000 dollars/FEU, the average price approached 2000 dollars/FEU, with some special prices at 1800 dollars/FEU [6]. - MSC also slightly lowered its prices from WK6 to WK7. Affected by the pre - holiday cargo volume vacuum, all alliances' quotes showed a downward trend [6]. Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy - This week, the EC market is in a "differentiated pattern under the game between expectation and reality", with a misalignment between futures and spot performance. Futures are supported by multiple expectations and prices have risen, while the spot market remains weak [7]. - The core logic for the futures rise is the rush - shipping expectation due to the cancellation of photovoltaic tax rebates, geopolitical conflicts, and bad weather in Northwest Europe. The spot market is affected by pre - holiday low cargo volume and price cuts by shipping companies [7]. - In the medium and long - term, there is a risk of over - capacity. New ships will be delivered in 2026, and the resumption of the Red Sea route will release hidden capacity, suppressing the freight rate center [7]. - The strategy suggests caution, not chasing high prices. For hedging, it is advisable to hold positions, and for arbitrage, gradually reduce positions. Key factors to track include shipping companies' price increases, Red Sea route resumption signals, and cargo volume data [7]. - In the short - term, the cost - effectiveness of short - selling has decreased. It is recommended to focus on going long on the 06 contract at low levels and short - selling the off - season 10 contract on rebounds [8].

Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data - Current value of Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1733, previous value was 1763, with a decline of -1.71% [4] - Current value of China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) is 1314, previous value was 1343, with a decline of -2.18% [4] - Current value of SCFI - US West is 2194, previous value was 2089, with an increase of 5.03% [4] - Current value of SCFIS - US West is 1266, previous value was 1557, with a decline of -18.69% [4] - Current value of SCFI - US East is 4172, previous value was 4124, with an increase of 1.16% [4] - Current value of SCFI - Northwest Europe is 2099, previous value was 2101, with a decline of -0.10% [4] - Current value of SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 2421, previous value was 2258, with an increase of 7.22% [4] - Current value of SCFI - Mediterranean is 2667, previous value was 2869, with a decline of -7.04% [4] - Current value of EC2506 is 1432.1, previous value was 1421.6, with an increase of 0.74% [4] - Current value of EC2508 is 2164.5, previous value was 2153.0, with an increase of 0.53% [4] - Current value of EC2510 is 1581.3, previous value was 1598.1, with a decline of -1.05% [4] - Current value of EC2512 is 1756.3, previous value was 1759.0, with a decline of -0.15% [4] - Current value of EC2602 is 1485.7, previous value was 1463.4, with an increase of 1.52% [4] - Current value of EC2604 is 1309.0, previous value was 1280.8, with an increase of 2.20% [4] - Current value of EC2606持仓 is 667, previous value was 637, with an increase of 30 [4] - Current value of EC2508持仓 is 16587, previous value was 18747, with a decline of 2160 [4] - Current value of EC2410持仓 is 50025, previous value was 50478, with a decline of 453 [4] - Current value of EC2412持仓 is 7885, previous value was 7652, with an increase of 233 [4] - Current value of EC2602持仓 is 3693, previous value was 3573, with an increase of 120 [4] - Current value of EC2604持仓 is 5234, previous value was 5200, with an increase of 34 [4] - Current value of 10 - 12 month difference is 583.2, previous value was 554.9, with an increase of 28.3 [4] - Current value of 12 - 2 month difference is -175.0, previous value was -160.9, with a decline of 14.1 [4] - Current value of 12 - 4 month difference is 447.3, previous value was 478.2, with a decline of 30.9 [4] Group 2: Market News - Protests erupted in Israel, demanding a hostage agreement. Israel accepted a 60 - day cease - fire and hostage release draft proposed by Qatar, but Hamas rejected it. The core of the deadlock is the map parameters for the Israeli army's withdrawal from Gaza. Israel will present a new map plan next Monday [5] - MSK opened bookings in wk31 at a flat price of 3000 [6][7] - Some offline sailings of 0A ships can guarantee cabins, are free of long - term validity, and the destination port can approve off - site container returns [7] - MSK has some single - point cabin space on European routes [8] - For PA in late July, some special - price cabins for matching goods still need to be booked in advance, and the overall cabin space at the end of the month is abundant [9] - European port congestion persists due to labor shortages, a strike at the Port of Antwerp, low Rhine River water levels, and rising Red Sea route risks [9] Group 3: EC Market Analysis - The EC market has declined recently, but EC2510 and far - month contracts have risen significantly [10] - Reasons for the sharp rise in 10 and far - month contracts: the change of the main contract from 2508 to 2510, better - than - expected spot market with European port congestion, and some assistance from geopolitical factors [11][12] - In the future, there may be a rush to ship in July. The current situation of European routes is stable reality and weak expectation. Spot prices are expected to enter an arc - top trend from late July to early August. After the deep discount on the futures market is repaired, investors should not chase high prices [12] - Strategy: short 10 contracts on rallies and hold 12 - 4 calendar spreads [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC market shows an oscillating upward trend. The recent strength is mainly affected by the tariff extension and Maersk's better - than - expected cabin opening. The cargo shipment from the Far East to the United States will continue for some time, which is beneficial for August. The decline amplitude from the high point in August is expected to slow down, thus the discount is repaired. Today, long - position holders shifted their positions. With the new round of peace talks in Gaza on the verge of collapse and the increasing possibility of a summit between Chinese and US leaders, as the freight rate of the 08 contract is gradually determined and the range becomes clearer, it follows the delivery logic, and the 10 - contract gradually replaces the 08 - contract as the main contract and takes over the main role of the expected logic [8]. - In late July, the spot market basically followed the situation in the first half of the month. The average values of different alliances were around 3200 - 3500. Maersk's quotations were higher than the market's expectation of a decline starting from the third week, so the main contract performed strongly. The market on the disk oscillated upward this week due to Maersk's flat or higher - than - expected prices in the third and fourth weeks of July. The main contract repaired from a deep - discount state, but the upward trend is expected to be limited. Shipping companies may have the habit of announcing price increases in August, but the actual implementation will face great supply - side pressure [9]. - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [10]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), and other sub - indexes are 1733, 1314, etc. The changes from the previous values are - 1.71%, - 2.18%, etc. For example, SCFI - US West increased by 5.03%, while SCFIS - US West decreased by 18.69%, and SCFIS - Northwest Europe increased by 7.22% [4]. - **Contract**: The current values of contracts such as EC2506, EC2508 are 1382.2, 2027.2, etc. The changes from the previous values are 3.78%, - 0.17%, etc. For example, EC2510 increased by 4.25%, and EC2512 increased by 2.57% [4]. - **Position**: The current positions of EC2606, EC2508 are 567, 27891, etc. The changes from the previous values are 60, - 1009, etc. For example, the position of EC2410 increased by 3971 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current values of spreads such as 10 - 12, 12 - 2 are 586.5, - 139.8, etc. The changes from the previous values are - 62.1, 19.1, etc. For example, the 12 - 4 spread increased by 13.1 [4]. International News - Israel has protests demanding a hostage agreement. Israel accepted a 60 - day cease - fire and hostage - release draft proposed by Qatar, but Hamas rejected it. The core of the deadlock lies in the map parameters of the Israeli army's withdrawal from Gaza. Israel will propose a new map plan next Monday [5]. - The Israeli Defense Minister said that if Iran threatens Israel, Israel will strike Iran again [6]. - Russian President Putin is privately urging Iran to accept a "zero enrichment" nuclear agreement in exchange for the possibility of a new nuclear agreement with the US [6]. - The US imposed a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico, escalating trade tensions [6]. - The Philippine government ordered shipping agencies to avoid the Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea due to attacks on commercial ships. The Philippines supplies about 35% of the world's seafarers and takes measures to protect its nationals [7]. - US Secretary of State Rubio said that the possibility of a summit between US President Trump and China is high after meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the JOLTS data release, traders slightly reduced the expected rate cut by the Fed, with a 21% chance of a rate cut in July and an expected start of rate cuts in September [3] - The White House indicated that Trump might extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period in July [5] - Trump plans to visit China with dozens of CEOs [5] - Fed Chair Powell stated that a “substantial majority” of Fed members expect rate cuts later this year [5] - Trump's tariff policy and low river levels have caused the worst supply - chain congestion in European ports since the pandemic, expected to last at least several months [5] - US officials are seeking phased agreements with actively - involved trade negotiation countries, aiming for an agreement by July 9 [6] - The EC market shows weak oscillations [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **SCFI and CCFI**: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1862, down 0.43% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1369, up 2.00% [3] - **Regional SCFI**: SCFI - US West is 2578, down 7.00%; SCFIS - US West is 161, down 22.28%; SCFI - US East is 4717, down 11.86%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 2030, up 10.63%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 2123, up 9.60%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 2985, down 2.55% [3] 3.2 EC Futures - **Futures Prices**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2508 etc., prices mostly declined, with EC2506 at 1310.0, down 0.92% [3] - **Open Interest**: EC2606 open interest increased by 82 to 352, while EC2508 decreased by 4141 to 36335 [3] - **Calendar Spreads**: The 10 - 12 spread is 515.6, down 5.5; the 12 - 2 spread is - 160.1, down 5.9; the 12 - 4 spread is 353.8, up 3.6 [3] 3.3 Spot Market - The central price in the second week of July is about 3200 (range 2900 - 3600). Maersk's price rose slightly from 2900 to 2960 in the second week, and the Shanghai - Rotterdam sailing price is 2950, higher than the expected decline [8] - There is a market differentiation, with some OCEAN Alliance routes having strong quotes and PA Alliance planning to raise prices later, but some shipping companies reported reduced inventory [8] - HPL's quotes show relatively sufficient cabin space, and shipping companies are still trying to attract cargo [8] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread long position and pay attention to the 8 - 10 calendar spread. Due to less shipping capacity in weeks 28 and 30, Maersk's strong cabin opening in week 3 of July, and the expected European congestion, contract 08 may perform stronger than 10 [9]