Core Viewpoint - The shipping decarbonization policies from IMO and the EU are becoming more frequent, marking the transition of shipping decarbonization into a practical phase, with low-carbon fuel materials entering a favorable market environment [1][2] Group 1: Policy Developments - The EU will include the shipping industry in its carbon market starting in 2024, imposing fines of 100 EURO/tCO2e for non-compliance, and requires a 2% reduction in carbon emissions by 2025 and an 80% reduction by 2050, with penalties of 642 EURO/tCO2e for violations [2] - The IMO has proposed a net-zero strategy by 2050 and approved a net-zero framework draft in April 2025, establishing a unified carbon price of $380 or $100/tCO2e to significantly promote shipping decarbonization [2] - China is initiating green fuel pilot projects and has set a target for zero net emissions (ZNZ) usage of 5-10% by 2030, with compliance costs expected to drive ZNZ demand [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - According to DNV's statistics as of August 2025, the demand for biodiesel, LNG, and green methanol is projected to be approximately 200 million tons, 40 million tons, and 6 million tons respectively, while the supply of ship fuel is only 70,000 tons, 10,000 tons, and 10,000 tons, indicating a severe shortage of low-carbon fuel supply [2] - The compliance costs in the EU are higher than those under the IMO framework and are expected to increase annually, with projected costs for 2025, 2030, 2040, and 2050 being $741, $953, $1649, and $3014 per ton respectively, compared to $525, $583, and $1362 per ton under the IMO framework [2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Biodiesel is identified as a core decarbonization measure for existing vessels, with a significant increase in biodiesel refueling at Singapore ports since 2022, reflecting a growing demand [3] - The demand for renewable natural gas (RNG) is expected to surge, driven by the IMO's net-zero framework and the potential for green premiums, with historical RNG development being slow due to high costs [4] - The number of methanol ships is rapidly increasing, with current estimates of 406 ships corresponding to a demand of over 800,000 tons of methanol, while global green methanol production capacity is expected to be only 124,000 tons by the end of 2025 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to mandatory environmental regulations, LNG has become a key compliance solution for the shipping industry, but methane emissions pose a significant challenge to its long - term sustainability. Despite this, LNG currently holds a dominant position in the alternative fuel new - ship orders and is expected to strengthen its market position through technological innovation [3][4][5] Summary by Directory LNG Ship Fuel Policy Background - **IMO 2020 Global Sulfur Cap**: Effective from January 1, 2020, it reduced the sulfur content limit for ships' fuel. Shipowners can choose compliant fuel, install desulfurization towers, or use alternative fuels like LNG. LNG can directly meet the sulfur limit standard, making the sulfur cap a strong policy driver for LNG's commercial application [11] - **IMO Tier III Nitrogen Oxide Standards**: For ships built after January 1, 2016, in designated nitrogen oxide emission control areas, nitrogen oxide emissions need to be reduced by about 80% compared to Tier I. LNG engines, especially those using the lean - burn Otto cycle, can meet this standard without additional post - treatment systems. However, the lean - burn technology causes methane slip [12][13][14] Advantages and Disadvantages of LNG Decarbonization Transformation - **Pollution Gas Emission Reduction Advantages**: LNG can eliminate sulfur oxide emissions almost completely and significantly reduce particulate matter and nitrogen oxide emissions. Different institutions have evaluated that the reduction rates of sulfur oxides, particulate matter, and nitrogen oxides are very high [16][17] - **Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Advantages in the On - board Combustion Stage**: LNG has a higher hydrogen - to - carbon ratio than petroleum - based fuels, resulting in less carbon dioxide emissions when burning the same amount of energy. It also has an advantage in obtaining a better CII rating [19][20] - **Technical Maturity and Infrastructure Adaptability Advantages**: LNG dual - fuel engines are mature, and global mainstream manufacturers can provide reliable products. The global LNG refueling network is expanding rapidly, with 188 ports offering refueling services by the end of 2023 and 82 more in construction or planning [23] - **Methane Emission Disadvantages**: Methane is a potent greenhouse gas. Its warming effect is much stronger than that of carbon dioxide, especially in the short - term (GWP20). The GWP20 value of methane is 82.5 [24][26] - **Emission Disadvantages under the Full - Life - Cycle Assessment Framework**: The IMO 2023 greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy uses the Well - to - Wake assessment method. Different studies have different conclusions on LNG's full - life - cycle greenhouse gas emissions, which depend on upstream production, engine technology, and the GWP assessment time scale [27][29][31] Current Application and Outlook of LNG in the Ship Market - **Engine Technology**: The mainstream LNG engine technologies are low - pressure dual - fuel (LPDF) and high - pressure dual - fuel (HPDF) engines. LPDF engines are more common but have a serious methane slip problem. Manufacturers are innovating to address this issue, such as Wärtsilä's NextDF technology [33][37] - **Fleet Size and Market Share**: The LNG - powered fleet has been growing rapidly. It is expected to double by 2030. LNG is mainly used in container ships and car carriers. CMA CGM is a strong promoter of LNG fuel [38][41][43] - **Competition Pattern of Ship Alternative Fuels**: LNG, methanol, and ammonia are the most promising alternative fuels. LNG is the most widely used and technically mature. Methanol has storage advantages but faces a supply bottleneck for green methanol. Ammonia has zero - carbon potential but is in the early R & D stage [45][47] - **Applications in Other Commercial Transport Fields**: LNG is a mature and growing alternative fuel in road freight, especially for heavy - duty trucks. However, its application in aviation is still in the theoretical and experimental stage due to low volume energy density [51] - **Compliance Cost Measurement**: The IMO's GFI standard, effective from January 1, 2028, will link the full - life - cycle carbon intensity of fuel to operating costs. LNG - powered ships have a cost advantage, especially those using low - methane - slip technology [54][56][58] Summary - LNG has established its leading position as a mainstream alternative fuel. Advanced technologies are solving the methane slip problem. The growth of the LNG - powered fleet and strategic investments from industry giants show that LNG is seen as a long - term strategic platform. In the future, LNG's competitive advantage will be strengthened under tightening environmental regulations [60][61]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released the draft "Emission Smoke Density Limits and Measurement Methods for Ships," which aims to enhance the regulation of visible pollutants from existing ships, marking a shift from source control to lifecycle management [1][3]. Regulatory Framework - The draft expands its scope from diesel engines to all ships, changing the measurement method from engine testing to direct exhaust measurement, and sets a compliance line at Ringelmann blackness level 2, significantly improving regulatory precision [3]. - The new regulations address the issue of black smoke emissions from existing ships due to improper maintenance and poor engine-propeller matching, filling a long-standing regulatory gap [3][5]. Emission Statistics - In 2023, ship emissions accounted for 27.4% of hydrocarbons (HC), 35.7% of nitrogen oxides (NOx), and 28.6% of particulate matter (PM) from non-road mobile sources, highlighting the urgent need to control ship black smoke emissions for better air quality in port cities [4]. Challenges with Current Standards - The existing standards for ship diesel engine emissions are outdated, lacking effective regulatory measures for black smoke from existing ships, necessitating a more scientific and enforceable new standard [5]. - The new standard is expected to reduce particulate matter emissions by approximately 13,800 tons [5]. Market Dynamics - Although the draft does not outright ban traditional oil fuels, the established regulatory framework will drive the shipping fuel market towards cleaner and more diverse options [7]. - The market share of traditional heavy fuel oil is expected to gradually decline due to tightening regulations and the rise of alternative fuels, with low-sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) becoming increasingly mainstream [8]. Future Fuel Trends - In the short term, the shipping industry will likely rely on commercially viable liquefied natural gas (LNG) and methanol, while long-term goals will necessitate a shift to zero-carbon fuels like green methanol and ammonia [8][10]. - Traditional oil companies are encouraged to transition towards renewable energy and develop electric liquid fuels, leveraging their existing advantages in the chemical sector [10][11]. Opportunities for New Energy Companies - The draft creates opportunities for new energy companies to enter the shipping fuel market by focusing on technological breakthroughs and participating in infrastructure development [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Green Methanol Alliance and Service Platform" in Tianjin aims to create a new ecosystem for international shipping green fuels, involving 16 companies including China Shipbuilding Fuel Co., Ltd. and China Merchants Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. [1][3] Group 1: Alliance Formation - The alliance was initiated by multiple governmental and industry bodies, including the Tianjin Investment Promotion Bureau and the China Classification Society, with the mission to develop systematic rules and integrate resources across the entire industry chain [3] - The alliance aims to address issues such as supply-demand imbalance and price transparency in the green methanol sector [3] Group 2: Strategic Advantages - Tianjin Port, as the largest port in Northern China, has significant advantages for developing green methanol refueling, including a dense European route network and proximity to major green methanol production areas [3] - The port's specialized liquid chemical terminals and rail lines enhance its methanol storage and transportation capabilities [3] Group 3: Policy Support - The Tianjin Maritime Safety Administration has issued interim measures for the safe supervision of low-flashpoint fuel refueling operations, filling a regulatory gap in the industry [3] - The approval of the first bonded LNG refueling pilot project in Northern China by CNOOC Tianjin New Energy Company demonstrates the alignment of policy with industry development [3] Group 4: Future Development - The alliance plans to leverage Tianjin's resources and national support to promote the first green methanol fuel refueling business in Northern China [4] - There are intentions to establish a green methanol spot trading market to accelerate the gathering of industry elements and position Tianjin as a center for low-carbon fuel refueling and trade in international shipping [4]

"宁波膜智信息科技有限公司"为势银（TrendBank）唯一工商注册实体及收款账户 势银研究： 势银产业研究服务 添加文末微信，加 绿色甲醇 群 IMO新规将于2025年10月正式通过，并于2027年生效，届时将对总吨位超过5000吨的大型远洋船舶强 制执行。 势银数据： 势银数据产品服务 势银咨询： 势银咨询顾问服务 重要会议： 2025势银绿氢产业大会（7月16-17日，江苏·无锡） IMO的主要措施是对高GFI（船舶年度燃料强度）的船舶进行罚款，对使用近零燃料（2030年前GFI 不超过19 CO 2 eq/MJ，2035年后不超过14 CO 2 eq/MJ）的船舶进行奖励。 （例如2030年，基础指标 为75 CO 2 eq/MJ，直接合规指标是85 CO 2 eq/MJ，那么对于超过75-85部分罚款为100美元/tCO 2 eq， 超过85部分为380美元/tCO 2 eq；如果使用柴油将会超过85 CO 2 eq/MJ） 针对使用LNG燃料的船舶预估2030年将会进行第一阶段的罚款，2033年后进行第二阶段的罚款。 在短期内（2030年前），替代生物方面因为燃料棕榈油和大豆油廉价并且碳排放量低于 ...