Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to increasing supply surplus, overshadowing geopolitical factors and leading to a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude falling below $60 for the first time in seven months [3][4][21]. Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil futures closed at $58.92, down 2.71%, while WTI crude oil futures closed at $55.27, down 2.73% [6][18]. - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 9.322 million barrels for the week ending December 12, exceeding market expectations of a 2.197 million barrel drop, but this did not significantly impact market sentiment [3][4][16]. - The Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its monthly report, indicating an average daily supply surplus of over 4 million barrels per day for the past two months, confirming the accumulation of crude oil inventories [4][16]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, have not significantly influenced the market, as evidenced by the muted market reaction to the U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker [5][19]. - The impact of geopolitical events is diminishing, with the market focusing more on supply-demand dynamics rather than geopolitical disruptions [5][17]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The market is expected to face concentrated supply surplus pressures in the fourth quarter, with OPEC+ and other regions increasing production, contributing to a bearish outlook for oil prices [4][21]. - Analysts predict that oil prices may continue to decline throughout the year due to the anticipated supply surplus and weak demand, with a 20% drop in benchmark oil prices observed this year [21][21].

12月15日，印度西海岸的船用燃料需求在11月保持稳健。市场参与者向Platts表示，受价格下降和国内 炼厂供应改善的支持，包括孟买、坎德拉和科钦等主要港口的消费保持稳定，而东海岸港口尽管产品充 足，却面临接货有限的挑战。NCE平台认为，这显示出西海岸港口在后季风时期凭借竞争性价格和供应 保障，能够维持市场活力，而东海岸港口则仍存在需求释放不足的问题。 在古吉拉特湾，坎德拉港的燃料需求环比保持稳定，供应商报告称询价量已超过可用供应量，主要得益 于季风过后有竞争力的价格。一位坎德拉本地供应商透露，11月处理了约46000吨极低硫燃料油 （VLSFO），包括自用船舶在内。该供应商表示："与上个月类似，市场询价量表现良好，季风过后需 求明显回升，尤其在过去一个月里，由于价格具备吸引力，询价量已经超过供应量。"Platts数据显示， 12月9日交付孟买的船用燃料油0.5%报价为465美元/吨，较本周初下跌10美元/吨，而新加坡同规格FOB 货价上涨1.93美元/吨，收于416.88美元/吨，科伦坡交付价格为495美元/吨，较本周初下降5美元/吨。 NCE平台认为，这一价格波动反映了区域港口供应与需求的差异，同时也提示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released the draft "Emission Smoke Density Limits and Measurement Methods for Ships," which aims to enhance the regulation of visible pollutants from existing ships, marking a shift from source control to lifecycle management [1][3]. Regulatory Framework - The draft expands its scope from diesel engines to all ships, changing the measurement method from engine testing to direct exhaust measurement, and sets a compliance line at Ringelmann blackness level 2, significantly improving regulatory precision [3]. - The new regulations address the issue of black smoke emissions from existing ships due to improper maintenance and poor engine-propeller matching, filling a long-standing regulatory gap [3][5]. Emission Statistics - In 2023, ship emissions accounted for 27.4% of hydrocarbons (HC), 35.7% of nitrogen oxides (NOx), and 28.6% of particulate matter (PM) from non-road mobile sources, highlighting the urgent need to control ship black smoke emissions for better air quality in port cities [4]. Challenges with Current Standards - The existing standards for ship diesel engine emissions are outdated, lacking effective regulatory measures for black smoke from existing ships, necessitating a more scientific and enforceable new standard [5]. - The new standard is expected to reduce particulate matter emissions by approximately 13,800 tons [5]. Market Dynamics - Although the draft does not outright ban traditional oil fuels, the established regulatory framework will drive the shipping fuel market towards cleaner and more diverse options [7]. - The market share of traditional heavy fuel oil is expected to gradually decline due to tightening regulations and the rise of alternative fuels, with low-sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) becoming increasingly mainstream [8]. Future Fuel Trends - In the short term, the shipping industry will likely rely on commercially viable liquefied natural gas (LNG) and methanol, while long-term goals will necessitate a shift to zero-carbon fuels like green methanol and ammonia [8][10]. - Traditional oil companies are encouraged to transition towards renewable energy and develop electric liquid fuels, leveraging their existing advantages in the chemical sector [10][11]. Opportunities for New Energy Companies - The draft creates opportunities for new energy companies to enter the shipping fuel market by focusing on technological breakthroughs and participating in infrastructure development [11][12].