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6月30日汇市晚评:澳大利亚公布经济数据 澳元/美元仍然维持强势
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-30 10:16
Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The Euro/USD continues to rise, supported by a weaker dollar, trading around 1.1720 [1] - The GBP/USD maintains its upward trend for the fourth consecutive trading day, trading above 1.3700 [1] - The AUD/USD rebounds after a previous decline, trading around 0.6540 following the release of economic data from Australia [1] - The NZD/USD is up near 0.6050 [1] - The USD/CAD is down, trading around 1.3670 [1] Group 2: Key Economic and Political Developments - Trump believes there is no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, while the Treasury Secretary admits that completing all negotiations may be difficult [2] - The U.S. Senate is set to vote on the "Big and Beautiful" bill on June 30 [2] - Trump suggests that the U.S. should keep interest rates at 1% or 2% [2] - A poll shows Trump's approval rating has dropped to a new low [2] - Fed's Kashkari expects two rate cuts starting in September, with tariff impacts potentially delaying cuts [2] - The International Bank for Settlements states that Trump's criticism of the Fed's rate decisions does not threaten its independence [2] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate version of Trump's tax cut plan will increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade [2] Group 3: Non-USD Currency Developments - Canada cancels the digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the U.S. [3] - A poll in Japan shows support for the Shinto Abe cabinet has remained below 30% for four consecutive months [3] - A trade agreement reducing tariffs on U.S. auto and aircraft parts from the UK has come into effect [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - For Euro/USD, if it breaks below 1.1700, the first support level will be the June 26 low of 1.1653, followed by 1.1600 and the 50-day SMA at 1.1515 [4] - The upward trend for GBP/USD remains intact, but momentum appears to be waning after reaching a multi-year high near 1.3770 [4] - For AUD/USD, a breakout above the descending channel's upper boundary may signal the start of a strong upward trend [4] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to watch includes Germany's June CPI at 20:00, U.S. June Chicago PMI at 21:45, and a speech by Fed's Bostic at 22:00 [5] - The Dallas Fed's June business activity index will be released at 22:30, followed by speeches from Fed's Goolsbee and ECB's Lagarde [6]