近日，由清华大学基础模型北京市重点实验室发起 AGI-Next前沿峰会 ，把AI圈大半边天聚到了一块。基模四杰全员到场： 智谱唐杰、Kimi杨植麟、阿里林俊 旸，还有"突然贴脸跳屏"的姚顺雨。 要点提炼： 如果只看热搜，会觉得这场清华峰会的气氛是： "中国模型崛起、开源占榜、AGI在望。" 但只要把圆桌那段关于"中国能否反超"的讨论完整读一遍，你会发现他们的真实情绪更接近—— "我们有机会，但别自嗨；短期能追平，长期能引领范式才算赢。" 甚至有人把概率直接压到一个非常"反公众号"的数字： 不超过20% 。 姚顺雨：乐观，但前提是"新范式要敢赌"——否则就是追分追到天花板 姚顺雨的结论其实分两层： 第一层：复现与工程，中国很强 他说得很直接：任何一个事情一旦被证明可行，中国往往能很快复现、并在局部做得更好——类似制造业、电动车的路径已经反复发生。 第二层：真正的难点是"引领新范式" 他强调："中国唯一要解决的问题"是—— 能不能引领新的范式 （比如长期记忆、持续学习、真正的自主学习框架），而不是在旧范式里刷榜。 竞争坐标迁移： Chat 时代的工程问题已基本解决，未来的胜负手不再是更聪明的"搜索框"，而是能否完 ...

Core Insights - The forum "Phoenix Bay Area Finance Forum 2025" was held in Guangzhou, focusing on the theme "New Pattern, New Path" to explore development opportunities amid global changes [1] - The speech by Cao Hu, CEO of Kotler Consulting Group for China and Singapore, emphasized the strategic logic and transformation paths for Chinese enterprises going global in the context of Globalization 2.0 [3][4] Globalization Trends - The transition from Globalization 1.0 to 2.0 is characterized by a "mosaic" pattern, indicating a shift towards regionalization and fragmentation, which challenges traditional export models [4] - The distinction between "export" and "going global" is crucial; the former involves domestic production and overseas sales, while the latter focuses on overseas production and sales, mitigating currency and tariff impacts [5] Supply Chain Transformation - The global supply chain is evolving from an "efficiency-first" approach to a "safety-first" model, leading to three key changes: "shortening" (production close to sales), "diversifying" (backup sourcing), and "ecosystem" (local innovation partnerships) [5] Brand Development Strategies - Chinese enterprises can be categorized into three groups based on their competitive strategies: 70% rely on "extreme low-price" competition, 20% have transitioned to "best value providers," and 5%-10% are developing into "premium brands" [6] - Premium brands differ from well-known trademarks by providing both functional and emotional value, necessitating capabilities in technological innovation, cross-cultural user insights, and emotional storytelling [6] Innovation Approaches - Different markets require tailored innovation strategies: "frugal innovation" for developing countries and "enhanced innovation" for Western markets, focusing on emotional resonance and contextual needs [7] Essential Capabilities for Global Brands - Seven core capabilities are essential for Chinese enterprises to develop global brands: establishing value standards, setting technical standards, building brand assets, managing complex processes, creating profitable business models, integrating user value innovation, and executing mergers and acquisitions [8][9] Future Outlook - The next five to ten years are predicted to be a golden period for the emergence of global brands from China, with the potential for hundreds of global and thousands of international brands [8] - The concept of a "triple world" (physical, digital, and token) highlights the complexity and interconnectedness of future markets, urging Chinese enterprises to leverage economic, cultural, and trade platforms for competitive advantage [10]