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芳烃市场周报:苯乙烯非一体化亏损缩减,港口累库预期仍存(PX,纯苯,苯乙烯)-20251127
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 10:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX market is expected to see its processing fees and absolute prices continue to run strongly, with attention on cost - side support and potential impacts from India's BIS certification and long - term contract prices [4]. - The pure benzene market is expected to have a relatively loose supply, and it will be in a low - level oscillation, with focus on exports and potential changes in South Korean disproportionation plants [5]. - The styrene market is in a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern, following cost - side fluctuations, and future trends depend on consumption policies and macro - news [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Market - **Cost**: International oil prices are in a low - level oscillation, with weak support. Naphtha price is $557, and PX CFR price is $829. Sinopec's December PX listed price is 6,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last month [4]. - **Supply**: This week's PX output is 752,600 tons, a 0.6% increase from last week. The domestic weekly average capacity utilization rate is 89.74%, up 0.53%. Some plants are under maintenance [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is 74.29%, down 1.89% from last week and 6.74% year - on - year [4]. - **Summary and Outlook**: PX fundamentals are strong due to continuous de - stocking, but the "peak season" failed to meet expectations. It is expected to run strongly if there are no unexpected cost - side disturbances [4]. Pure Benzene Market - **Concerns**: Geopolitical situation and US - South Korea arbitrage window [5]. - **Futures and Spot**: The pure benzene futures contract has rebounded slightly, and the basis difference between futures and spot has widened. The market is under cost - side pressure [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: This week's output is 446,700 tons, a 1.67% decrease from last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.67%, down 1.31%. Supply exceeds demand [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, 2025, the commercial inventory in Jiangsu ports is 164,000 tons, with significant inventory accumulation [5]. - **Profit**: Most downstream products are in a loss, but some are expected to improve. Disproportionation plants' losses are increasing [5]. - **Summary and Outlook**: New capacities have led to increased domestic output, and the overall supply is expected to be loose, with the market in a low - level oscillation [5]. Styrene Market - **Futures and Spot Performance**: The styrene futures contract has rebounded, but cost - side weakness suppresses prices. Spot prices have declined [6]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: As of November 26, the daily profit of non - integrated styrene plants is - 159 yuan/ton, with a reduced loss [6]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: This week's styrene output is 334,700 tons, a 2.39% decrease from last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 67.29%, down 1.66% [6]. - **Downstream**: ABS, PS, EPS, and UPR have increased output, but the overall industry profitability is not good [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, 2025, the port inventory in Jiangsu has increased, and there is an expectation of further inventory accumulation [6]. - **Summary and Outlook**: Styrene is in a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern, and the improvement in the supply - demand situation after the holiday has limited impact on high port inventories [7].
芳烃市场周报:加工费上涨,成本支撑仍存(PX,纯苯,苯乙烯)-20251031
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 11:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX market: Despite strong fundamentals, the PX market showed a "peak season without peak" characteristic. With cost - side rebounds and geopolitical uncertainties, it is expected to oscillate, but the upside is limited due to weakening downstream supply - demand expectations [3]. - Pure benzene market: Affected by new capacity and overseas supply surplus, the overall environment is bearish. Short - term decline space is limited, but there is still an oversupply expectation in the medium - to - long - term [4]. - Styrene market: In the traditional peak season, styrene prices are under pressure. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly, but high port inventories remain. It is expected to continue its low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Directory PX Market - **Cost**: International oil prices are oscillating at a low level. The naphtha price is 573 dollars, and the PX CFR price is 816 dollars. The APEC summit and OPEC+ meeting have different impacts on the cost side [3]. - **Supply**: Domestic PX production is 73.74 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week increase. The domestic PX capacity utilization rate is 87.93%, up 1.6% week - on - week. Asian PX capacity utilization is 78.09%, up 0.88% week - on - week [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream PTA capacity utilization rate is 78.38%, a 2.40% week - on - week increase and a 2.18% year - on - year decrease [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The report presents PX price trends, production and device status, supply - demand situation, and various spread data [7][9][12][14]. Pure Benzene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The pure benzene futures contract rebounded slightly this week. The basis between the futures and the spot in East China narrowed and then stabilized [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September 2025, the total supply was 271.2 tons, and the total demand was 259.3 tons. There was a double - reduction in supply and demand, with supply exceeding demand [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 20, 2025, the commercial inventory in Jiangsu ports was 9.9 tons, a 10.0% month - on - month increase and a 10% year - on - year decrease [4]. - **Profit**: Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, phenol, caprolactam, and adipic acid are in a loss state, while aniline still has profits and the margin is slightly expanding [4]. Styrene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene futures contract has been weakly oscillating, and the spot price has declined. The port inventory remains at a high level [5]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The average profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China this week was - 454 dollars per ton, with a reduced loss of 102 dollars per ton compared to the previous period [5]. - **Industrial Chain Operating Rate**: The total production of styrene plants in China was 32.34 tons, a 1.1% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 66.72%, a 2.53% week - on - week decrease [5]. - **Downstream**: The production of UPR and EPS increased, while the capacity utilization rates of PS, ABS, and SBR decreased slightly, resulting in a slight decrease in overall styrene demand [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 27, 2025, the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 19.3 tons, a 4.69% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the port inventory will slightly increase [5].