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芳烃市场周报:加工费上涨,成本支撑仍存(PX,纯苯,苯乙烯)-20251031
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 11:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX market: Despite strong fundamentals, the PX market showed a "peak season without peak" characteristic. With cost - side rebounds and geopolitical uncertainties, it is expected to oscillate, but the upside is limited due to weakening downstream supply - demand expectations [3]. - Pure benzene market: Affected by new capacity and overseas supply surplus, the overall environment is bearish. Short - term decline space is limited, but there is still an oversupply expectation in the medium - to - long - term [4]. - Styrene market: In the traditional peak season, styrene prices are under pressure. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly, but high port inventories remain. It is expected to continue its low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Directory PX Market - **Cost**: International oil prices are oscillating at a low level. The naphtha price is 573 dollars, and the PX CFR price is 816 dollars. The APEC summit and OPEC+ meeting have different impacts on the cost side [3]. - **Supply**: Domestic PX production is 73.74 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week increase. The domestic PX capacity utilization rate is 87.93%, up 1.6% week - on - week. Asian PX capacity utilization is 78.09%, up 0.88% week - on - week [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream PTA capacity utilization rate is 78.38%, a 2.40% week - on - week increase and a 2.18% year - on - year decrease [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The report presents PX price trends, production and device status, supply - demand situation, and various spread data [7][9][12][14]. Pure Benzene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The pure benzene futures contract rebounded slightly this week. The basis between the futures and the spot in East China narrowed and then stabilized [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September 2025, the total supply was 271.2 tons, and the total demand was 259.3 tons. There was a double - reduction in supply and demand, with supply exceeding demand [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 20, 2025, the commercial inventory in Jiangsu ports was 9.9 tons, a 10.0% month - on - month increase and a 10% year - on - year decrease [4]. - **Profit**: Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, phenol, caprolactam, and adipic acid are in a loss state, while aniline still has profits and the margin is slightly expanding [4]. Styrene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene futures contract has been weakly oscillating, and the spot price has declined. The port inventory remains at a high level [5]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The average profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China this week was - 454 dollars per ton, with a reduced loss of 102 dollars per ton compared to the previous period [5]. - **Industrial Chain Operating Rate**: The total production of styrene plants in China was 32.34 tons, a 1.1% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 66.72%, a 2.53% week - on - week decrease [5]. - **Downstream**: The production of UPR and EPS increased, while the capacity utilization rates of PS, ABS, and SBR decreased slightly, resulting in a slight decrease in overall styrene demand [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 27, 2025, the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 19.3 tons, a 4.69% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the port inventory will slightly increase [5].