【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：低开工率下，假期累库一般 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 26 日 【基本面分析】 1、截至2026年2月23日，全球苯乙烯开工72.80%，环比+3.43%，同比-3.89%， 处于近六年同期偏低水平。 1 日均线，等待回落之后的低多思路，目前对于苯乙烯的出口交易预期仍在，重点 跟踪出口及后续产业上下游订单情况。 冠通期货 黄德志 2、截至 2026 年 2 月 24 日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量 15.81 万吨，较 上周期增 6.19 万吨，幅度+64.35%。商品量库存在 8.72 万吨，较上周期增 3.32 万吨，幅度+61.48%。 【宏观面分析】 1、2 月 25 日，上海市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市 税务局、市公积金管理中心等五部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产 政策的通知》，自 2026 年 2 月 26 日起施行：符合条件非沪籍居民可在外环内增 购 1 套住房。 2、国际货币基金组织（IMF）25 日发布美国 2026 年第四条款磋商声明，预 计今后几年美国债务负担将继续增加。国际货币基金组织预计，考虑到多方面政 策变动的影响， ...

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2026 年 2 月 25 日 星期三 出口支撑与装置重启博弈，芳烃偏强震荡运行 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：2 月 24 日苯乙烯期货报收 7669 元/吨；纯苯期货报收 6199 元/吨。 成本：2 月 24 日布油主力收盘 62.8 美元/桶（+0 美元/桶），WTI 原 油主力合约收盘 67.5 美元/桶（+0 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 5990 元/吨（+0 元/吨）。 库存：纯苯方面，华东港口库存 30.5 万吨（+0 万吨），库存持 平。苯乙烯方面，华东港口库存 10.9 万吨（+0.8 万吨），库存缓慢累 库。 需求：纯苯下游整体开工上行。苯乙烯下游进入淡季，除 ABS 外开工 小幅下滑。 （2）观点 纯苯：原油受地缘局势扰动维持偏强，成本端对芳烃链条形成支撑。纯苯 供应端开工持续回升，进口资源自低位修复，港口库存虽有波动但整体 仍处高位区间，基本面压力尚未完全缓解。需求端呈现结构分化特征，苯 乙烯开工回升带动刚需改善，酚酮、苯胺及己二酸维持高负荷运行，对纯 苯形成稳定消耗；己内酰胺链条表现偏弱，对需求增量贡献 ...

芳烃市场周报： 交投转淡，节间存累库预期 （PX，纯苯，苯乙烯） 姜周曦琳 F03114700 Z0022394 金融研究院 2026年2月13日 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 近期PX市场 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 • 成本：此前地缘利好因素持续跟进，成本端油价上涨下，PX外盘价格连续上行，期现货价格高位震荡，基差随着期货端快速上涨连续走扩。随 后油价回调后震荡，PX跟随成本端变动。中石化1月PX结算价格7340元/吨，2月挂牌价格7650元/吨，小幅上调。 • 供给：周内浙石化重整装置重启，PX负荷恢复。中化泉州80万吨PX装置11月25日停机检修，1月25日重启，但未有合格品产出。本周PX产量为 75.81万吨，环比+1.99%。国内PX周均产能利用率91.65%，环比+1.78%。亚洲PX周度平均产能利用率80.28%，环比+0.97%。PX工厂的生产积极 性仍维持较好，海内外开工仍处于高位。 • 需求：本周国内PTA产量为146.39万吨，较上周+0.53万吨，较去年同期+6.37万吨。周期内四川能投重启，其余装置无变化，本周期国内整体 产量小 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply increase and demand weakness expectations have emerged, putting pressure on the valuation of aromatics. [1] - For pure benzene, the overall supply is expected to rise, the demand in February may remain stable, the port inventory is expected to stay at a relatively high level, and the valuation is high. Short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical factors, crude oil prices, downstream resumption of work, and import arrivals. [2] - For styrene, the supply is expected to increase in February, the demand is weak, the inventory may turn from decreasing to increasing, the valuation is high, and the short - term price may follow crude oil fluctuations. Attention should be paid to downstream negative feedback and geopolitical factors. [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Information - On February 5, the styrene main contract closed down 1.13% at 7,689 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract closed down 1.34% at 6,127 yuan/ton. [2] - On February 5, Brent crude oil closed at $65.1/barrel (+$1.9/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $69.5/barrel (+$2.1/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 6,110 yuan/ton (-75 yuan/ton). [2] - The East China port inventory of pure benzene was 30.5 tons (+0.8 tons), and the inventory was being reduced from a high level. The East China port inventory of styrene was 10.1 tons (+0.7 tons), and the inventory was decreasing. [2] - The overall downstream of pure benzene changed little, with only the caprolactam operating rate slightly dropping to 73.6%. The styrene downstream entered the off - season, with the operating rates of PS and ABS fluctuating slightly and the EPS operating rate weakening slightly, and the production profit of hard rubber was further compressed. [2] (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: The supply is expected to increase. The demand in February may remain stable, and it is expected to recover after the holiday. The port inventory in February is expected to remain high, and the valuation is high. Short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical factors, crude oil prices, downstream resumption of work, and import arrivals. [2] - **Styrene**: The supply in February is expected to increase, the demand is weak, the inventory may turn from decreasing to increasing, the valuation is high, and the short - term price may follow crude oil fluctuations. Attention should be paid to downstream negative feedback and geopolitical factors. [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - On February 5, the styrene futures main contract decreased by 1.13% to 7,689 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased by 0.41% to 7,752 yuan/ton. The styrene basis increased by 12.59% to 161 yuan/ton. [5] - The pure benzene futures main contract decreased by 1.34% to 6,127 yuan/ton, the East China pure benzene spot price decreased by 1.21% to 6,110 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in South Korea, the US, and CFR in China also decreased. [5] - The difference between the domestic profit of pure benzene and CFR decreased by 10.89%, and the difference between East China and Shandong decreased by 214.29%. [5] - Brent crude oil increased by 3.05% to $65.1/barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 3.16% to $69.5/barrel, and naphtha increased by 0.48% to 7,036.7 yuan/ton. [5] (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From January 23 to January 30, 2026, China's styrene production decreased by 0.50% to 34.8 tons, and pure benzene production increased by 0.87% to 42.9 tons. [6] - The port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 7.59% to 10.1 tons, and the national port inventory of pure benzene increased by 2.69% to 30.5 tons. [6] (3) Operating Rate - For pure benzene downstream, the operating rate of styrene decreased by 0.35% to 69.3%, caprolactam decreased by 2.60% to 73.6%, phenol decreased by 0.15% to 88.3%, and aniline increased by 0.92% to 88.5%. [7] - For styrene downstream, the operating rate of EPS decreased by 5.45% to 53.3%, ABS decreased by 0.70% to 66.1%, and PS decreased by 1.70% to 55.6%. [7] 3. Industry News - A bus in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine, was attacked by Russia, resulting in 15 deaths and 7 injuries. [8] - The US PPI in December increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7%. [8] - The total number of US oil rigs this week was 411, the same as the previous value. [8] - Trump hinted that India would buy oil from Venezuela. [8] - Many places on the US southeast coast suffered the strongest snowstorms and storm surges in decades. [8] - The Iranian foreign minister said he was still confident in reaching a nuclear agreement with the US. [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - There are charts showing the prices of pure benzene, styrene, the styrene - pure benzene price difference, the cost difference between imported and domestic pure benzene for styrene, the port and factory inventories of styrene, the port inventory of pure benzene, the inventory of ABS, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline. [9][12][19][23][25][28][29]

Group 1 - The chemical industry is experiencing a strong rebound in prices, with the basic chemical index rising by 12.72% year-to-date as of January 30, driven by supply-side maintenance, recovering export demand, and policy-driven structural tightness [1] - Aromatic products have shown significant price increases, with pure benzene prices in East China rising by 18.3% and styrene by 15.5% in January [1] - The price surge is attributed to multiple factors, including rising international oil prices, unexpected maintenance of chemical facilities, and a favorable market outlook for low-valuation chemical products [1] Group 2 - PX social inventory is expected to decrease rapidly starting in the second half of 2025, with a projected drop to 1.67 million tons by the end of 2025, supporting PX spot price increases [2] - The price of caprolactam has also rebounded, with prices rising from 9,325 yuan/ton to 9,600 yuan/ton in January, driven by reduced industry operating rates [2] - The pesticide industry is benefiting from rising core raw material prices and new export tax regulations, leading to price increases for products like glyphosate [2] Group 3 - The pesticide industry is undergoing supply-side structural reforms driven by policy changes, including the implementation of a new registration policy and the cancellation of export tax rebates for certain products [3] - The chemical industry is approaching a cyclical turning point, with stricter standards for energy consumption, carbon emissions, and safety processes expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity [3]

证券日报网1月30日讯，东方盛虹（000301）在接受调研者提问时表示，公司拥有PX产能280万吨/年、 PTA产能630万吨/年、纯苯产能超过100万吨/年，产能规模均位居国内前列；同时还配套有苯乙烯产能 45万吨/年、苯酚产能40万吨/年、丙酮产能25万吨/年、环氧丙烷产能20万吨/年等产品。公司芳烃链产 品的总产能合计超过了1000万吨。公司已打通"原油—PX—PTA—聚酯化纤"的全产业链，可以根据市场 及上下游行业动态灵活调整生产经营策略，充分发挥一体化布局优势和规模优势。 ...

芳烃市场周报： 地缘局势紧张，成本面支撑偏强 （PX，纯苯，苯乙烯） 姜周曦琳 F03114700 Z0022394 金融研究院 2026年1月30日 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 近期PX市场 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 • 成本：此前地缘利好因素持续跟进，成本端油价上涨下，PX外盘价格连续上行，期现货价格高位震荡，基差随着期货端快速上涨连续走扩。目 前地缘局势的不确定性仍存，国际油价上涨，伊朗局势仍高度紧张，原油盘面继续计价开战风险。中石化1月PX挂牌价格大幅上调至7500元/吨， 12月中石化PX结算价格7020元/吨。 • 供给：周内浙石化重整检修15-20天，PX负荷延续降低。中化泉州80万吨PX装置11月25日停机检修，周内重启，但尚未有合格品产出。本周PX 产量为74.33万吨，环比+0%。国内PX周均产能利用率89.87%，环比+0%。亚洲PX周度平均产能利用率79.31%，环比+0%。PX工厂的生产积极性仍 维持较好，海内外开工仍处于高位。 • 需求：本周国内PTA周均产能利用率至75.83%，环比持平，同比-4.60%。周内国内装置变化 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Aromatic Hydrocarbon Market Weekly Report: Cost Strengthening, Bullish Market Uplift (PX, Pure Benzene, Styrene) [1] - Author: Jiang Zhou Xilin [2] - Date: January 23, 2026 [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PX continues its strong pattern due to improved downstream demand since Q4 2026, positive news, and supply - demand remaining strong with supply tightness easing recently [3] - The pure benzene market has shifted from oversupply to undersupply, and the short - term market is still supported, but there may be an opportunity to shrink the processing spread [4] - Styrene has seen significant price increases in both futures and spot markets recently. The short - term market is bullish, and there may be an opportunity to shrink the pure benzene - styrene spread later [5][6] 3. Summary by Directory PX Market Cost - Geopolitical factors have driven up oil prices, causing the PX outer - market price to rise continuously. The spot - futures price is in high - level oscillation, and the basis has widened. The January PX listed price of Sinopec is raised to 7,500 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Zhejiang Petrochemical's reform is under maintenance, and the PX load has decreased. This week's PX output is 743,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.27%. The domestic and Asian PX capacity utilization rates have also declined [3] Demand - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA is 75.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.39% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.69% [3] Summary and Outlook - PX is expected to maintain a strong supply - demand situation in 2026. New investments may be realized after Q4, and the supply tightness has eased recently [3] Pure Benzene Market Spot and Futures - The futures price of pure benzene has risen significantly since early January. Rising oil prices, geopolitical news, and good downstream demand are the main driving factors [4] Supply and Demand - In December 2025, the national pure benzene output was 1.9228 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.28%. The import volume was estimated at 470,000 tons. The market has shifted from oversupply to undersupply [4] Inventory - As of this week, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports is 297,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.33% and a year - on - year increase of 107.69% [4] Profit - The spot price difference between pure benzene and downstream styrene has widened, prompting factories to lock in profits and buy pure benzene for hedging, further driving up the price [4] Summary and Outlook - In Q4 2025, new capacities led to oversupply. Recently, the short - term market is supported, and there may be an opportunity to shrink the processing spread [4] Styrene Market Spot and Futures Performance - The styrene main contract has risen for multiple consecutive trading days, mainly due to cost support and a continued tight - balance situation [5] Industrial Chain Profit - The average profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China this week is 441 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45.79% [5] Industrial Chain Operation - This week, the total output of styrene plants in China is 349,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%. The capacity utilization rate is 69.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.23% [5] Downstream - The consumption of the main downstream products of styrene in China this week is 267,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.16% [5] Inventory - As of this week, the total inventory of the main styrene storage areas in South China is 12,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36.84% [5] Summary and Outlook - Styrene's performance in the traditional peak season in 2025 was disappointing. Recently, the market has been bullish, but there may be a risk of weak downstream demand later [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious bullish view on the benzene and styrene market, suggesting waiting for buying opportunities after a pullback [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of benzene has marginally improved, and port inventories have started to decline from high levels. Styrene prices have strengthened further due to supply contraction expectations caused by unexpected news. However, due to the high price increases of benzene and styrene and the subsequent resumption of some plants, along with the still - high benzene inventories, there is a risk of a pullback [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - The 300,000 - ton/year styrene plant of Tangshan Xuyang has malfunctioned and stopped production. The inventory is mainly for contract delivery, and there is no external quotation today [1] - From January 10th to 16th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.12% month - on - month to 74.26%, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 4.07% month - on - month to 57.59% [1] - According to Steel Union data, from January 10th to 16th, the weighted operating rate of benzene downstream industries increased by 2.14% month - on - month to 74.50% [1] - As of January 19th, the benzene inventory at East China ports was 297,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.33% [1] - From January 9th to 15th, the profit of petroleum benzene was 369 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will research, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [2] - Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises, set up a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan quota for private investment to be implemented over two years, extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumption loans to the end of 2026, and in 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The supply - demand situation of benzene has marginally improved, and port inventories are decreasing from high levels. Styrene prices have strengthened further due to supply contraction expectations. Due to the high price increases and subsequent plant resumptions, along with high benzene inventories, there is a risk of a pullback. It is advisable to wait for buying opportunities after a pullback and pay attention to market sentiment changes due to recent macro news [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Since the fourth quarter, PX has been supported by improved downstream demand. Although it is currently profitable and the long - term outlook is positive, there is a lack of further upward momentum. In 2026, new PX projects may be implemented after the fourth quarter, and the supply - demand gap is expected to ease before the maintenance season [5]. - Pure Benzene: Affected by the new production capacity, the domestic supply has increased significantly, and the high - import and high - inventory situation is difficult to change. Recently, due to geopolitical uncertainties, the futures and spot prices have risen. In the short term, the market will follow the cost increase and then decline, and it will stabilize at a low level [7]. - Styrene: After the National Day in 2025, styrene was in a wide supply - demand balance. After multiple plant overhauls, the supply - demand gradually shifted to a tight balance. Since December 2025, the futures and spot prices have risen significantly. In the short term, the market is still trading on the strengthening of aromatic hydrocarbon prices and export news. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern has improved significantly, but there may be certain negative factors in the future [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PX Market - **Cost**: Previously, due to geopolitical factors, the price of PX increased. Recently, with the easing of geopolitical tensions, the price has fallen from a high level. Sinopec raised the January PX listing price to 7,500 yuan/ton, compared with the December settlement price of 7,020 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: Fuhai Chuang plans to overhaul its 160 - million - ton device for three months in the second quarter and expand its capacity to 200 million tons. Zhonghua Quanzhou's 80 - million - ton PX device has been under maintenance since November 25. This week, PX production was 76.06 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.46%. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 91.95%, a week - on - week increase of 2.83%. The Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 79.84%, a week - on - week increase of 0.66% [5]. - **Demand**: The downstream PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 77.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.72%. This week, the overall domestic PTA capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [5]. Pure Benzene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The futures price of pure benzene has increased significantly, and the East China price has risen to 5,535 yuan/ton. Since December 2025, the increase has been less than that of other aromatic hydrocarbon varieties. The recent price increase is mainly due to the rise in oil prices and geopolitical news [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In December 2025, the national pure benzene production was 1.9228 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.28%. The estimated import volume in December was 470,000 tons, remaining at a high level. Currently, the supply - demand situation has shifted from oversupply to undersupply, and the demand has improved [7]. - **Inventory**: As of January 12, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in China was 344,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%. The pressure of concentrated imports has eased, and the import volume has decreased significantly [7]. - **Profit**: Due to insufficient terminal demand, styrene, adipic acid, and phenol among the five major downstream products of pure benzene are still at a loss. The profit of pure benzene itself has recovered, and the profits of caprolactam and aniline are acceptable [7]. Styrene Market - **Spot and Futures Performance**: Recently, the main styrene contract has increased significantly, mainly affected by cost changes and the increase in external market prices. The current mainstream price in East China is 7,235 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the average profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China was 303 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 121.30%. On January 15, the daily profit was 372 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 13.46% [8]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: This week, the total production of styrene plants in China was 355,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08%. The plant capacity utilization rate was 70.86%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06%. Zhonghua Quanzhou and Tianjin Bohua are under maintenance [8]. - **Downstream**: The consumption of the main downstream products of styrene (EPS, PS, ABS) was 267,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.16%. The overall demand of the three major downstream plants has increased slightly, mainly due to the gradual recovery of EPS plant demand [8]. - **Inventory**: As of January 12, 2026, the total inventory of the main styrene storage areas in South China was 19,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.77%. The port inventory has decreased this week [8].