芳烃市场周报： 苯乙烯非一体化亏损缩减，港口累库预期仍存 （PX，纯苯，苯乙烯） 姜周曦琳 F03114700 Z0022394 金融研究院 2025年11月27日 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 近期PX市场 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 • 成本：国际油价当前低位震荡，支撑偏弱，石脑油价格当前557美元，PXCFR价格829美元。中石化12月PX挂牌价格6850元/吨，较上月挂牌涨50 元/吨，11月中石化PX结算价格6840元/吨。 • 供给：本周PX产量为75.26万吨，环比上周+0.6%。国内PX周均产能利用率89.74%，环比上周+0.53%。周内中化泉州80万吨PX装置11月25日停机 检修，计划检修两个月。福佳大化一套70万吨PX装置3月下旬停机，仍处于停机状态。PX工厂的生产积极性仍维持较好，海内外开工均处于高 位。 • 需求：下游PTA周均产能利用率至74.29%，环比-1.89%，同比-6.74%。周内西南及华东装置检修，供应端持续缩量，本周期国内PTA整体产能利 用率环比下降。 • 总结与展望：PX自身基本面供需受连续去库影响较为强势， ...

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 11 月 27 日 星期四 供需因素交织，芳烃价格震荡 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：11 月 26 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 1.35%，报 6533 元/吨，基 差 64（+0 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收涨 0.96%，报 5463 元/吨。 成本：11 月 26 日布油主力收盘 58.0 美元/桶（-0.9 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 61.8 美元/桶（-0.9 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5330 元/吨（+40 元/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 14.8 万吨（-2.7 万吨），环比去库 15.2%，苯乙烯 延续去库但仍高于往年。纯苯港口库存 14.7 万吨（+3.4 万吨），环比累 库 30.1%。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前，苯乙烯周产量 34.3 万吨（-0.1 万吨），工厂产能利用率 69.0%（-0.3%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 56.3% （+4.6%），ABS 产能利用率 72.4%（+0.6%），PS 产能利用率 55.9% （+0. ...

芳烃市场周报： 成本端弱势延续，调油仍有驱动 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 （PX，纯苯，苯乙烯） 姜周曦琳 F03114700 Z0022394 金融研究院 2025年11月21日 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 近期PX市场 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 • 成本：国际油价当前低位震荡，支撑偏弱，石脑油价格当前573美元，PXCFR价格832美元。中石化11月PX挂牌价格小幅上调至6800元/吨，10月 中石化PX结算价格6620元/吨。 • 供给：本周PX产量为74.81万吨，环比上周-0.41%。国内PX周均产能利用率89.21%，环比上周-0.36%。亚洲PX周度平均产能利用率79.38%，环 比-0.33%。上海石化60万吨装置检修重启，中化泉州PX装置故障，目前运行负荷50%。福佳大化一套70万吨PX装置3月下旬停机。PX工厂的生产 积极性仍维持较好，海内外开工均处于高位。 • 需求：下游PTA产能利用率74.29%，环比-1.89%，同比-6.74%。周内西南及华东装置检修，供应端持续缩量，本周期国内PTA整体产能利用 ...

Report Title - Aromatic Hydrocarbon Market Weekly Report: Blending Logic Boosts Aromatic Hydrocarbon Prices (PX, Pure Benzene, Styrene) [1] Report Date and Author - Date: November 14, 2025 - Author: Jiang Zhou Xilin - Institution: Hongye Futures, Financial Research Institute [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PX market: Despite a strong supply-demand situation due to continuous inventory reduction, the peak season expectation has failed. However, with the improvement of downstream demand and supply tightening in November, PX processing fees and absolute prices are expected to remain strong [3]. - Pure benzene market: Affected by new production capacity and overseas supply surplus, the price is under pressure. But due to the relatively low current price and downstream demand support, the short - term decline space is limited. The market still expects inventory accumulation and supply - demand contradictions remain [4]. - Styrene market: Although there has been a recent rebound, the device profit is still poor. The weak fundamentals are difficult to change, and it will fluctuate at a low level [5][6]. Summary by Directory PX Market - **Cost**: International oil prices are oscillating at a low level. The price of naphtha is $569, and the PX CFR price is $825. Sinopec's PX listed price in November is slightly increased to 6,800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: Domestic PX production is 758,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate is 90.49%, a week - on - week increase of 1.46%. Some plants are under maintenance [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.37% [3]. - **Summary and Outlook**: The PX market is expected to have a strong performance in the medium - long term if there are no unexpected geopolitical conflicts [3]. Pure Benzene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The pure benzene futures contract 2603 rebounded slightly this week. The basis between the futures and spot widened. The arbitrage window from Shandong to East China is partially open [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Weekly production is 454,300 tons, an increase of 3.77%. The capacity utilization rate is 77.98%, an increase of 2.83%. The supply exceeds demand, and many downstream styrene plants are under maintenance [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the commercial inventory in Jiangsu ports is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.61% and a year - on - year increase of 7.62%. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the next period [4]. - **Profit**: Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, phenol, caprolactam, and adipic acid are in loss, while aniline still has profit and it slightly expands [4]. - **Summary and Outlook**: The short - term decline space is limited, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to change. The market is affected by factors such as US supply reduction and gasoline price increase [4]. Styrene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene futures contract rebounded this week. The spot price in East China is 6,405 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous level [5]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China is - 451 yuan/ton, with a loss increase of 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [5]. - **Industrial Chain Capacity Utilization**: The production of styrene plants in China is 344,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.45%. The capacity utilization rate is 69.25%, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% [5]. - **Downstream**: The output of ABS, PS, and SBR increased, while the capacity utilization rate of EPS decreased. The overall demand for styrene slightly decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the inventory in Jiangsu ports is 174,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.51%. The commodity inventory is 101,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.29% [5]. - **Summary and Outlook**: Although there has been a recent rebound, the device profit is poor, and the weak fundamentals are difficult to change [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand side of pure benzene and styrene lacks upward drivers [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Preface Summary - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene and styrene lacks upward momentum [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation - **Pure Benzene Data**: The report presents data on pure benzene prices (including domestic and foreign markets), spreads,开工 rates (petroleum benzene, hydrogenated benzene), downstream weighted开工 loads and profits, port inventories, and import volumes from 2019 - 2025. For example, in 2025, the monthly pure benzene production ranges from 157.81 to 197.61 million tons, and the monthly import volume is around 40 - 50 million tons [12][15][33]. - **Styrene Data**: It shows styrene prices, price spreads,开工 rates, production profits, port and enterprise inventories, and downstream开工 rates and profits. The styrene production in 2025 ranges from 136.85 to 163.62 million tons, and the monthly import volume varies [37][41][60]. - **Downstream Product Data**: Data on the开工 rates, production profits, and inventories of downstream products such as CPL, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are provided. For instance, the CPL开工 rate in 2025 is between 55% - 105% [21][23][27]. - **Balance Sheets**: Pure benzene and styrene balance sheets from January to December 2025 are presented, showing production, import, demand, and supply - demand differences. For example, the supply - demand difference of pure benzene in October 2025 is 0.05 million tons, and that of styrene is 2.05 million tons [33][60]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Related Data**: Data on automobile production and export growth rates, and real - estate construction, new construction, sales, and completion area cumulative year - on - year growth rates are provided. For example, the automobile production and export data show trends from 0 - 3500 units with corresponding growth rates, and the real - estate data show cumulative year - on - year growth rates from - 100% - 100% [74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX market: Despite strong fundamentals, the PX market showed a "peak season without peak" characteristic. With cost - side rebounds and geopolitical uncertainties, it is expected to oscillate, but the upside is limited due to weakening downstream supply - demand expectations [3]. - Pure benzene market: Affected by new capacity and overseas supply surplus, the overall environment is bearish. Short - term decline space is limited, but there is still an oversupply expectation in the medium - to - long - term [4]. - Styrene market: In the traditional peak season, styrene prices are under pressure. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly, but high port inventories remain. It is expected to continue its low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Directory PX Market - **Cost**: International oil prices are oscillating at a low level. The naphtha price is 573 dollars, and the PX CFR price is 816 dollars. The APEC summit and OPEC+ meeting have different impacts on the cost side [3]. - **Supply**: Domestic PX production is 73.74 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week increase. The domestic PX capacity utilization rate is 87.93%, up 1.6% week - on - week. Asian PX capacity utilization is 78.09%, up 0.88% week - on - week [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream PTA capacity utilization rate is 78.38%, a 2.40% week - on - week increase and a 2.18% year - on - year decrease [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The report presents PX price trends, production and device status, supply - demand situation, and various spread data [7][9][12][14]. Pure Benzene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The pure benzene futures contract rebounded slightly this week. The basis between the futures and the spot in East China narrowed and then stabilized [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September 2025, the total supply was 271.2 tons, and the total demand was 259.3 tons. There was a double - reduction in supply and demand, with supply exceeding demand [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 20, 2025, the commercial inventory in Jiangsu ports was 9.9 tons, a 10.0% month - on - month increase and a 10% year - on - year decrease [4]. - **Profit**: Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, phenol, caprolactam, and adipic acid are in a loss state, while aniline still has profits and the margin is slightly expanding [4]. Styrene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene futures contract has been weakly oscillating, and the spot price has declined. The port inventory remains at a high level [5]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The average profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China this week was - 454 dollars per ton, with a reduced loss of 102 dollars per ton compared to the previous period [5]. - **Industrial Chain Operating Rate**: The total production of styrene plants in China was 32.34 tons, a 1.1% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 66.72%, a 2.53% week - on - week decrease [5]. - **Downstream**: The production of UPR and EPS increased, while the capacity utilization rates of PS, ABS, and SBR decreased slightly, resulting in a slight decrease in overall styrene demand [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 27, 2025, the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 19.3 tons, a 4.69% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the port inventory will slightly increase [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX market: Despite strong fundamentals due to continuous inventory reduction, it shows a "weak peak season" characteristic. In the short - term, cost rebound and geopolitical uncertainties provide some support. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an expectation of tightened supply in November and a possibility of PXN repair. If there are no unexpected geopolitical conflicts, PX processing fees and absolute prices will likely remain low, with limited room for further decline [3]. - Pure benzene market: Affected by new capacity and overseas supply surplus, the overall environment is bearish for prices. In the short - term, further decline is limited due to low prices and downstream demand. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still an oversupply expectation and persistent supply - demand contradictions [4]. - Styrene market: It is in a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern. Although downstream demand has improved compared to the off - season, the low - profit situation of styrene devices is expected to continue, and prices will likely fluctuate at a low level [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Price - International oil prices rebounded slightly from a low level. The current price of naphtha is $573, and the PX CFR price is $812. Sinopec's PX listed price in October is 6,800 yuan/ton, while the settlement price in September was 6,850 yuan/ton [3]. Production and Devices - Domestic PX output was 724,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.24%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 86.33%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.09%. Some devices such as Urumqi Petrochemical and Fujia Dahua are under maintenance and are planned to restart in late October or early November [3]. Supply and Demand - Downstream PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.42% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.83%. PX is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand during the peak season [3]. Spread - The report presents historical data on spreads such as PX - N, PX - MX, crude oil - naphtha, and BZ - N [16]. Pure Benzene Spot and Futures - The main pure benzene contract 2603 has been declining since mid - September and rebounded slightly this week following cost - side positive factors. The basis between the futures and the East China spot has narrowed and remained stable [4]. Supply and Demand - In September 2025, the estimated monthly output was 1.932 million tons, the import volume was 440,000 tons, and the total supply was 2.712 million tons, while the total demand was 2.593 million tons. Supply and demand both decreased, with supply exceeding demand [4]. Inventory - As of October 20, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 99,000 tons, a 10% week - on - week increase and a 10% year - on - year decrease [4]. Profit - Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, phenol, caprolactam, and adipic acid are in a loss - making state, while aniline still has profits and the profit margin has slightly expanded [4]. Styrene Spot and Futures - The main styrene contract has been weakly oscillating, continuing the downward trend since mid - September. The current mainstream price in East China is 6,585 yuan/ton, lower than before [5]. Industrial Chain Profit - The average profit of non - integrated styrene devices in China this week was - 556 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 9.44% [5]. Industrial Chain Operating Rate - The total output of styrene factories in China was 327,000 tons, a decrease of 12,400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.65%. The capacity utilization rate was 69.25%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.63% [5]. Downstream - The improvement in exports due to previous tariff cuts was less than expected. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries have improved significantly compared to mid - May. EPS demand has increased significantly after the National Day holiday, ABS demand has increased slightly, and PS demand has decreased slightly [5]. Inventory - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 202,500 tons, a 3.05% increase from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 122,500 tons, a 0.82% increase from the previous period. It is expected that port inventory will decrease slightly in the future [5].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Aromatic Hydrocarbon Market Weekly Report: Lackluster Performance in Peak Season, Profitability Under Pressure (PX, Pure Benzene, Styrene) [1] - Author: Jiang Zhou Xilin [2] - Institution: Hongye Futures, Financial Research Institute [2] - Date: September 26, 2025 [2] Group 2: PX Market Analysis Cost - International oil prices first declined and then rose recently, supported by geopolitical instability. Current Japanese naphtha is at $608/ton, and PX CFR is at $817/ton. Sinopec's September PX listed price is 7,200 yuan/ton, and the August settlement price was 7,020 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Domestic PX weekly output was 733,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.86%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, up 1.59% week-on-week. Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000-ton and Fujia Dahua's two 1.4-million-ton units continued maintenance, planned to restart in early November. Daxie's load increased to 90% in mid-September [3] Demand - Downstream PTA capacity utilization rate dropped to 76.48%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.81% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%. Fuhai Chuang restarted as scheduled, but South China units reduced load or stopped due to weather [3] Summary and Outlook - The main 2511 contract has been in a low-level shock after a rapid decline since late August, and has continued its weakness recently. From the second quarter, the intensification of the Israel-Iran conflict in June boosted oil prices, and PX followed suit. Then, the US announced a full ceasefire, reducing the possibility of an oil crisis, and downstream prices declined with the rapid fall in the cost end. Since mid-July, affected by the macro commodity atmosphere, chemicals generally rose under the "anti-involution" policy, and PX oscillated upward supported by strong supply and demand, then fell again as the market cooled. In mid-August, it rose rapidly affected by the macro and commodity market sentiment, then gave back previous gains. Currently, the increase in PX supply due to short-process load increase and postponed maintenance of some units is obvious, while on the demand side, after the significant compression of PTA profits, rumors of production cuts increased, and terminal demand is still below expectations. If terminal demand improves gradually as the peak season approaches and the macro atmosphere is strong, there is still room for an upward trend during the "Golden September and Silver October." However, the demand in the traditional peak season is currently poor, processing fees are under pressure at a low level, and the PX supply-demand situation remains weak. The future market still depends on changes in downstream demand and profits, with a weak oscillation [3] Group 3: Pure Benzene Market Analysis Futures and Spot - The main 2603 contract of pure benzene has been oscillating after a continuous decline since mid-September. The basis between the futures main 2603 contract and East China spot has further narrowed to par, mainly due to the downward adjustment of the spot end. The arbitrage window from East China to Shandong has partially opened. There are currently reports of improved pre-holiday procurement enthusiasm from downstream and active spot buying, with the near-month contract at a premium to the far-month contract (September to October) [4] Supply and Demand - The estimated monthly output of pure benzene in August 2025 was 1.9633 million tons, an increase of 78,900 tons from the previous month and 112,500 tons from the same month last year. Units such as Fuhai Chuang, Dongfang Hualong, and Dongming Petrochemical restarted, while units such as Jincheng Petrochemical, a cracking unit of CNOOC Shell, and a cracking unit of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical stopped [4] Summary and Outlook - The spot and futures prices of pure benzene are currently at a low level. The peak season demand from downstream is currently below expectations, but the room for further decline is limited due to rigid demand procurement. The losses of styrene and phenol are expected to continue to repair. There are also reports of postponed procurement plans from downstream. In the short term, the market is trading on the expectation of styrene inventory accumulation. The spot demand for pure benzene has improved, and the supply-demand surplus has turned into a balance, but the far-month expectation remains weak. In the medium to long term, there is still an expectation of oversupply [4] Group 4: Styrene Market Analysis Futures and Spot - The main 2511 contract of styrene has been weakly oscillating recently, with a slight rebound following the cost end in the middle of the week. The current mainstream price in East China is 6,940 yuan/ton, down from before. The domestic supply of styrene has been continuously decreasing, and downstream demand has been good, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance. However, the terminal inventory has not decreased, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation, maintaining a weak and bearish expectation. The high-end transaction price of Jiangsu spot is 7,060 yuan/ton, the low-end is 6,840 yuan/ton, and the price difference between high and low ends is 220 yuan/ton [5] Industrial Chain Profit - On a weekly basis, the average profit of non-integrated styrene units in China was -485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 98 yuan/ton from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 25.18%. The weekly profit of non-integrated styrene units in China continued to decrease, showing a downward trend. The weekly average decline of pure benzene was lower than that of styrene, and the price difference between pure benzene and styrene further narrowed, ranging from 1,030 to 1,170 yuan/ton during the period. The profitability of non-integrated styrene units decreased [5] Industrial Chain Operating Rate - The total output of styrene factories in China was 345,800 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 0.29%. The factory capacity utilization rate was 73.24%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.2%. The newly put into operation 670,000-ton unit of Jingbo Sida Rui has been included in the total capacity. Production profits led to a decrease in the load of individual units, and the Zhenli Chemical unit stopped. The loss completely covered the increase in production brought by the return of units, resulting in a slight decrease in overall output. It is expected that the impact of stopped and reduced-load units will increase around the holiday, and there are no plans for unit restart and production increase, so the output will continue to decline [5] Downstream - The improvement in exports due to previous tariff cuts was lower than expected. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries have improved significantly compared to before mid-May. The main downstream industries still have profit margins, but the current downstream demand has decreased. Among them, ABS and PS have fluctuated slightly, and some EPS units in South China stopped due to typhoons, leading to a significant decrease in demand. The fundamental problem of poor profitability in the styrene industry has not changed. It is expected that downstream demand will continue to decrease around the holiday [5] Inventory - As of September 22, 2025, the total inventory of the mainstream styrene storage areas in South China was 13,600 tons, a decrease of 8,200 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 37.61%. According to the current port inventory data, the overall pick-up has remained stable. Affected by the typhoon weather, the arrival of ships at the port was postponed, resulting in a significant decrease in overall inventory [5] Summary and Outlook - Since mid-May, the previously continuously rising styrene has oscillated and declined. From the perspective of the supply-demand structure, styrene was in a tight supply-demand balance in the second quarter. In May, large-scale units such as Shandong Lihuayi, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Dalian Hengli were under maintenance, and the factory inventory data decreased tightly. The supply-demand side remained strong, and the decline was mainly due to the回调 of the cost end and the less-than-expected improvement in the export market and downstream. On the one hand, the pressure of increased crude oil production and poor demand prospects in the cost end still exists. On the other hand, the operating rates of the main downstream industries increased in mid-May and then declined, and the spot demand was still poor. Since mid-June, the spot and futures prices have continuously risen, on the one hand, affected by inventory news, and on the other hand, due to the strong cost end. Geopolitical news such as the Iranian parliament's approval to close the Strait of Hormuz once formed a significant positive impact, and then returned to the fundamentals. Styrene has continuously accumulated inventory, and the production and capacity utilization rates have significantly increased, and styrene itself has shifted to a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In mid-July, affected by the "anti-involution" policy, styrene old units with high energy consumption, backward technology, and small scale have become the focus of policy clearance. Previously, the production capacities of Maoming Petrochemical, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Qilu Petrochemical have been in long-term shutdown, which is in line with the policy orientation. The increase in the futures price was mainly driven by the macro commodity sentiment. Since its own supply and demand was still in a weak off-season state, the production and sales profitability was average. Since the end of July, it has followed the cooling of the commodity market. In late August, it experienced a rapid decline and has recently oscillated and rebounded, but has not returned to the previous high. Currently, the crude oil end has first declined and then risen, the fundamentals of pure benzene itself have improved, and the cost side has a single-sided driving force. In terms of styrene's own supply and demand, the domestic supply still has room for further decline, and the downstream demand is also expected to decrease during the holiday. It is expected that the downstream rigid demand will be maintained during the holiday, and the spot demand will be weakly stable. The supply and demand will be temporarily in a wide balance state. Affected by the relatively low absolute price of styrene, there may be continuous short position reduction before the holiday. In the medium to long term, the profit of styrene units is poor. The supply and demand sides may improve during the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, but the oversupply pattern of the raw material end may drive the price further down [6]