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瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250429
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 09:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, EB2506 is expected to oscillate weakly, with support around 6840 yuan/ton. The supply pressure of styrene spot will increase as the 125 - million - ton facilities of Wanhua and Zhejiang Petrochemical restart. The demand for EPS, PS, and ABS is average, and the finished - product inventory remains high. The policy uncertainty is high, and the foreign trade environment is difficult to improve significantly. During the National Day, the supply - demand contradiction of styrene spot will intensify. The international oil price is expected to oscillate, and the downstream demand for pure benzene is limited after pre - holiday stocking [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract is 7072 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 350427 lots, a decrease of 148831 lots. The long - position volume of the top 20 holders is 405334 lots, a decrease of 14948 lots. The net long - position volume of the top 20 holders is 305 lots, an increase of 9273 lots. The short - position volume of the top 20 holders is 405029 lots, a decrease of 24221 lots. The 3 - month contract closing price is 6904 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton. The open interest of the active contract is 290962 lots, a decrease of 31344 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 805 lots, a decrease of 90 lots [2]. - The FOB South Korea middle - price of styrene is 870.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/ton. The CFR China middle - price is 880.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/ton [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7748 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 7275 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton), 7445 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), 7305 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton), and 7265 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia middle - price of ethylene is 791 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia middle - price is 871 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe middle - price is 799.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5 dollars/ton; the FD US Gulf price is 457 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 dollars/ton [2]. - The FOB US Gulf price of pure benzene is 257 cents/gallon, an increase of 6 cents/gallon; the CIF Taiwan price is 722.27 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB Rotterdam price is 650 dollars/ton, a decrease of 19 dollars/ton. The market prices in South, East, and North China are 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5920 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and 5900 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate is 67.93%, an increase of 1.16 percentage points. The national styrene inventory is 216307 tons, a decrease of 2177 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port is 8.52 million tons, a decrease of 0.13 million tons; the trade inventory is 5.82 million tons, a decrease of 0.69 million tons [2]. - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 57.04% (down 2.03 percentage points), 65.08% (down 1.91 percentage points), 58.7% (down 2.1 percentage points), 28% (unchanged), and 71.95% (down 1.29 percentage points) respectively [2]. Industry News - From April 18th to 24th, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 311,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.77%; the plant capacity utilization rate was 67.93%, a month - on - month increase of 1.16% [2]. - From April 18th to 24th, the consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of Chinese styrene was 252,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.73% [2]. - As of April 24th, the styrene plant inventory was 216,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; as of April 28th, the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 85,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%, and the inventory in South China ports was 25,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.02% [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The EB2506 contract decreased by 0.69% to close at 7072 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the 720,000 - ton facility of Dalian Hengli restarted. Last week, the styrene output increased by 1.77% month - on - month to 311,200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.16% month - on - month to 67.93%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rates mainly decreased last week, and the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS decreased by 2.73% month - on - month to 252,600 tons [2]. - In terms of inventory, the plant inventory decreased by 4.30% month - on - month to 218,400 tons; the East China port inventory decreased by 9.52% month - on - month to 86,500 tons, and the South China port inventory increased by 2.31% month - on - month to 26,600 tons [2].