9月23日，国家发展改革委官网发布消息，国内成品油价格按机制不作调整。 据统计，今年国内成品油零售价格已经经历19轮调整周期，其中6次上调，6次搁浅，7次下调。国内 汽、柴油价格每吨较去年底分别下跌405元/吨和390元/吨。 卓创资讯成品油分析师曹莹莹认为，本计价周期内，国际原油基本面受多空因素交织影响，前期受俄乌 和中东局势升级影响，市场担忧石油整体供应，且在宏观宽松的背景下，原油价格偏强运行为主，后期 随着地缘扰动对市场的影响减弱，而市场对石油累库的预期不变，在供应增加和需求弱化的背景下，原 油价格连续多日延续偏弱行情。 21世纪经济报道记者费心懿 金联创成品油分析师马建彩指出，国内批发市场来看，周期内国际油价走势先涨后跌，搁浅预期作用市 场，消息面支撑有限。步入月度中旬主营单位多侧重走量，但受"金九"气氛烘托市场跌价意向不高，主 营单位报价波动幅度有限，但实际成交灵活影响，市场限时促销走量活动频繁，市场成交重心下移，山 东地炼价格多随原油走势灵活小幅调整，下游适度入市补货，低价市场出货进度好转，购销气氛整体提 升有限。 国内成品油零售价格迎来年内第六次搁浅，而本轮成品油价将持续到国庆、中秋"双节"之后 ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude oil falling nearly 2% and WTI crude oil declining over 2% during trading on September 3 [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices dropped nearly 2%, with intraday declines exceeding 2% [1]. - WTI crude oil saw a decline of over 2%, with intraday highs approaching a 2.4% drop [3]. Group 2: Future Oil Demand and Price Predictions - OPEC's July forecast indicated that global daily oil demand is expected to increase by 1.28 million barrels in 2026 compared to 2025, driven by improved economic growth expectations in certain regions, including the OECD, the Middle East, and Africa [5]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that due to an anticipated oversupply of oil next year, Brent crude futures prices could fall to the low $50 range by the end of 2026 [5]. - The forecast suggests that while oil prices may remain near current forward contract levels in 2025, this balance is expected to break in 2026, with Brent oil's "fair value" decreasing from the current $70 range to the $50 range, particularly as inventories continue to accumulate [5].

Core Viewpoint - The "Big Three" oil companies in China, namely China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 due to falling international oil prices, despite continuing to distribute substantial dividends [2][4][8]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the combined revenue of CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC reached approximately 3.07 trillion yuan, with a net profit of 175.01 billion yuan, representing a decrease of over 29 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [2][4]. - CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC reported revenues of 1.45 trillion yuan, 1.41 trillion yuan, and 207.61 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 6.74%, 10.60%, and 8.45% [4]. - Corresponding net profits for the three companies were 839.93 billion yuan, 214.83 billion yuan, and 695.33 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 5.42%, 39.83%, and 12.79% [4]. Oil Price Impact - The average Brent crude oil price for the first half of 2025 was 71.87 USD/barrel, down 14.5% from 84.06 USD/barrel in the previous year, while the average price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was 67.60 USD/barrel, down 14.4% from 78.95 USD/barrel [4]. - The average selling prices of crude oil for CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC were 66.21 USD/barrel, 67 USD/barrel, and 69.15 USD/barrel, showing declines of 14.5%, 12.9%, and 13.9% respectively [5]. Natural Gas Performance - CNPC's natural gas segment saw a volume increase of 2.9% year-on-year, with sales reaching 151.5 billion cubic meters and operating profit rising to 18.6 billion yuan [6]. - CNOOC's natural gas revenue grew by over 16% to 27.75 billion yuan, driven by the full production of the "Deep Sea No. 1" project [6]. Dividend Distribution - Despite the decline in performance, the "Big Three" maintained a high dividend payout strategy, distributing a total of over 82.5 billion yuan, although this was a reduction of approximately 7.7 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the average international oil price for 2025 will hover around 70 USD/barrel, with potential upward risks to 90 USD/barrel and downward risks to 45 USD/barrel [3][9]. - The outlook for oil prices remains cautious, with expectations of increased downward pressure due to geopolitical factors and seasonal demand fluctuations [8][10].

8月19日最新消息，乌克兰军队有新动作！他们用无人机配合其他部队，在18号凌晨袭击了俄罗斯境内尼科利斯科耶的输油泵站，导致给"友谊"输油管道供 油的泵站停止运作，这条输油管道的输油因此中断。"友谊"管道是俄罗斯向欧洲输送石油的重要通道之一，乌克兰这一行动对相关能源运输造成了影响。 这事儿透出两个关键点，一是乌军此次行动深入俄境内打击目标，战术上展现出主动出击的特点；二是欧洲方面可能会受到波及，俄罗斯输油管道输油中 断，国际油价走势存在不确定性，可能影响欧洲能源供应，给当地民众生活带来压力。 不过这事儿争议也来了，乌克兰的行动虽属反击，但针对能源设施的打击是否能达到预期效果？会不会加剧能源危机，让欧洲盟友面临更大困境？大家觉得 乌克兰这招影响如何？欧洲面对这种情况该如何应对？评论区聊聊你的看法！ ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, marking the fourth increase this year, which has raised concerns about the downward pressure on international oil prices due to various factors including geopolitical risks and U.S. tariff policies [1][5]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have shown a downward trend in the first half of the year, with Brent crude oil futures dropping from $75.93 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $70.19 per barrel by July 9 [2]. - The price of light crude oil futures fell to a low of $59.58 per barrel in early May following the announcement of U.S. tariffs, indicating a significant impact on market sentiment [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Iran conflict, have caused fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching $78.85 per barrel in mid-June before declining again [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is heavily influenced by OPEC+'s decision to increase production, with expectations of a potential complete cancellation of voluntary production cuts by September or October, which could exacerbate supply surplus [5][7]. - U.S. tariff policies remain a significant uncertainty, with recent announcements indicating increased tariffs on imports from several countries, which could dampen global oil demand [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the international oil price will be primarily driven by supply and demand fundamentals in the second half of the year, with expectations of a seasonal decline in demand post-summer [6][7]. Group 3: Price Forecasts - Analysts have differing views on the price range for Brent crude oil in the second half of the year, with estimates ranging from $60 to $85 per barrel, but a general bearish sentiment prevails [7][8]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude oil prices could drop to around $59 per barrel by the fourth quarter of this year, citing rising recession risks and increased OPEC+ supply as key factors [8][9]. - The consensus among experts suggests that $60 per barrel may serve as a support level for Brent crude, with limited potential for prices to rise significantly above this level in the near term [7][8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The previous policy - driven market sentiment has declined, and most industrial product futures fell during the day. EB2509 dropped 1.97% to close at 7,358 yuan/ton. The domestic styrene market maintains a high - production state. Supply has increased, with last week's styrene output rising 0.67% to 361,100 tons and capacity utilization up 0.54% to 78.84%. Demand has also improved, with downstream EPS, PS, ABS consumption increasing 2.65% to 243,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased 1.46% to 205,300 tons, while the East China port inventory increased 8.81% to 150,700 tons and the South China port inventory decreased 2.04% to 19,200 tons. The styrene market is expected to maintain a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern. Next week, styrene production and capacity utilization are expected to remain stable or slightly increase. The improvement in downstream consumption may not be sustainable due to weak terminal demand. The overall inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and it is difficult to reduce inventory in the future. The cost support is limited, and the international oil price is expected to fluctuate. The market should pay attention to the latest progress of China - US tariff negotiations [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 7,358 yuan/ton, down 229 yuan; the trading volume was 431,585 lots, down 208 lots; the open interest of the active contract was 295,650 lots, down 21,424 lots; the net long position of the top 20 holders was - 23,626 lots, up 8,903 lots; the short position of the top 20 holders was 344,836 lots, down 53,457 lots; the total number of warehouse receipts was 1,900 lots, up 400 lots [2]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,736 yuan/ton, unchanged; the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 910 US dollars/ton, up 3.5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 920 US dollars/ton, up 3.5 US dollars. The mainstream prices in different regions showed variations: Northeast was 7,450 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; South China was 7,555 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; North China was 7,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China was 7,540 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene in different regions were: CFR Northeast Asia was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CIF Northwest Europe was 842.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; FD US Gulf was 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars. The spot prices of pure benzene also varied: Taiwan's CIF price was 763.83 US dollars/ton, up 26.33 US dollars; US Gulf's FOB price was 284 cents/gallon, unchanged; Rotterdam's FOB price was 755 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The market prices of pure benzene in different domestic markets were: South China was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China was 6,095 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; North China was 6,020 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 78.84%, up 0.54%. The national inventory of styrene was 205,283 tons, down 3,036 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 150,700 tons, up 12,200 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 56,200 tons, up 11,200 tons. The operating rates of downstream products changed: EPS was 55.21%, up 2.03%; ABS was 66.82%, up 0.92%; PS was 51.6%, up 1; UPR was 28%, unchanged; styrene - butadiene rubber was 73.8%, up 0.72% [2]. 5. Industry News - From July 18th to 24th, China's styrene factory output was 361,100 tons, up 2,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.84%, up 0.54%. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 243,800 tons, up 6,300 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.65%. As of July 24th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 205,300 tons, down 3,000 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices reflects a balance of market dynamics, with a decrease in gasoline and diesel prices aimed at reducing costs for consumers and logistics companies, while international oil market conditions remain volatile and influenced by geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton respectively, marking the 14th round of price adjustments this year, with a pattern of "six increases, six decreases, and two stasis" [1]. - The overall price changes for gasoline and diesel since the end of 2024 are a decrease of 225 yuan/ton and 215 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The price per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline and 0 diesel will decrease by 0.1 yuan and 0.11 yuan respectively, leading to average prices of 7.4-7.5 yuan for 92 gasoline and 7-7.2 yuan for diesel in most regions [2]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Logistics - The price reduction will lower fuel costs for private car owners and logistics companies, with an estimated saving of about 5 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank and a reduction of 0.7 yuan per 100 kilometers for typical city driving [2]. - For large logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons, the fuel cost will decrease by approximately 4.4 yuan per 100 kilometers [2]. Group 3: International Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market has shown volatility, with a slight upward trend in prices due to increased demand during the U.S. Independence Day holiday and geopolitical tensions affecting energy transport safety [2][3]. - OPEC+ has maintained a firm stance on increasing production, with plans to raise daily oil output by 548,000 barrels in August, while also revising down global oil demand forecasts for 2023 and 2026 [3]. - The next price adjustment window is set for July 29, with expectations of a slight increase in fuel prices based on current international oil price levels, although the likelihood of a price stasis remains high due to ongoing market dynamics [3].

Core Viewpoint - The international oil price is under increasing downward pressure due to multiple factors, including OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical risks, and U.S. tariff policies [2][6][10]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August, marking the fourth increase this year [2][6]. - The international oil price has shown a downward trend, with Brent crude oil futures dropping from $75.93 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $70.19 per barrel by July 9 [3]. - The price of Brent crude oil peaked at $78.85 per barrel on June 19 but fell to $71.48 per barrel by June 23 following geopolitical developments [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is expected to dominate oil price trends in the second half of the year, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production [6][8]. - The U.S. government's tariff policies are seen as a significant uncertainty that could impact global oil demand [6][10]. - Analysts predict that the supply-demand relationship will shift towards oversupply, particularly if OPEC+ accelerates production increases [8][10]. Group 3: Price Forecasts - Experts have differing views on the price range for Brent crude oil in the second half of the year, with expectations generally leaning towards a bearish outlook [9]. - Predictions suggest that Brent crude oil prices may range from $60 to $85 per barrel, with a central price around $75 [9]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude oil prices could drop to approximately $59 per barrel by the fourth quarter of this year [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, EB2506 is expected to oscillate weakly, with support around 6840 yuan/ton. The supply pressure of styrene spot will increase as the 125 - million - ton facilities of Wanhua and Zhejiang Petrochemical restart. The demand for EPS, PS, and ABS is average, and the finished - product inventory remains high. The policy uncertainty is high, and the foreign trade environment is difficult to improve significantly. During the National Day, the supply - demand contradiction of styrene spot will intensify. The international oil price is expected to oscillate, and the downstream demand for pure benzene is limited after pre - holiday stocking [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract is 7072 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 350427 lots, a decrease of 148831 lots. The long - position volume of the top 20 holders is 405334 lots, a decrease of 14948 lots. The net long - position volume of the top 20 holders is 305 lots, an increase of 9273 lots. The short - position volume of the top 20 holders is 405029 lots, a decrease of 24221 lots. The 3 - month contract closing price is 6904 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton. The open interest of the active contract is 290962 lots, a decrease of 31344 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 805 lots, a decrease of 90 lots [2]. - The FOB South Korea middle - price of styrene is 870.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/ton. The CFR China middle - price is 880.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/ton [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7748 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 7275 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton), 7445 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), 7305 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton), and 7265 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia middle - price of ethylene is 791 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia middle - price is 871 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe middle - price is 799.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5 dollars/ton; the FD US Gulf price is 457 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 dollars/ton [2]. - The FOB US Gulf price of pure benzene is 257 cents/gallon, an increase of 6 cents/gallon; the CIF Taiwan price is 722.27 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB Rotterdam price is 650 dollars/ton, a decrease of 19 dollars/ton. The market prices in South, East, and North China are 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5920 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and 5900 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate is 67.93%, an increase of 1.16 percentage points. The national styrene inventory is 216307 tons, a decrease of 2177 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port is 8.52 million tons, a decrease of 0.13 million tons; the trade inventory is 5.82 million tons, a decrease of 0.69 million tons [2]. - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 57.04% (down 2.03 percentage points), 65.08% (down 1.91 percentage points), 58.7% (down 2.1 percentage points), 28% (unchanged), and 71.95% (down 1.29 percentage points) respectively [2]. Industry News - From April 18th to 24th, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 311,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.77%; the plant capacity utilization rate was 67.93%, a month - on - month increase of 1.16% [2]. - From April 18th to 24th, the consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of Chinese styrene was 252,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.73% [2]. - As of April 24th, the styrene plant inventory was 216,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; as of April 28th, the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 85,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%, and the inventory in South China ports was 25,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.02% [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The EB2506 contract decreased by 0.69% to close at 7072 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the 720,000 - ton facility of Dalian Hengli restarted. Last week, the styrene output increased by 1.77% month - on - month to 311,200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.16% month - on - month to 67.93%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rates mainly decreased last week, and the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS decreased by 2.73% month - on - month to 252,600 tons [2]. - In terms of inventory, the plant inventory decreased by 4.30% month - on - month to 218,400 tons; the East China port inventory decreased by 9.52% month - on - month to 86,500 tons, and the South China port inventory increased by 2.31% month - on - month to 26,600 tons [2].