0:00 美东时间周三，美股三大指数涨跌不一，标普500指数、道琼斯指数均在盘中触及历史新高后回落，其 中道琼斯指数下挫466点，跌幅近1%。具体来看，大型科技股涨跌互现。谷歌涨超2%，市值超越苹果 位居美股第二；微软、英伟达涨超1%，脸书跌近2%。英特尔涨逾6%，盘中一度大涨超11%。 国际油价震荡下行，NYMEX WTI原油收跌逾1%，报56.4美元/桶；ICE布油跌超0.4%。此前据新华社报 道，特朗普称委内瑞拉将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油。 现货黄金、白银同步大幅回调，夜盘分别收跌0.87%、3.56%。截至北京时间7:00，现货黄金小幅上涨， 报4459.53美元/盎司，现货白银在78美元/盎司附近震荡。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is influenced by the balance between oil price fluctuations and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, with upcoming U.S. CPI and Canadian inflation data expected to dictate the currency's direction [1] Economic Fundamentals - The USD/CAD exchange rate is affected by differences in the economic fundamentals of the U.S. and Canada, diverging monetary policy expectations, and international oil price trends [1] - U.S. core PCE inflation for October was reported at 3.5%, which was lower than expected, while Federal Reserve officials emphasized maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation, pushing back rate cut expectations to 2025, thus supporting the resilience of the USD [1] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was 2.9%, providing a solid foundation for the USD [1] - In Canada, as an oil-exporting country, the recent decline in international oil prices below $80 per barrel has led to a narrowing trade surplus, creating pressure on the economy [1] - Canada's October CPI year-on-year was 3.1%, above the central bank's 2% target, but core inflation showed a marginal decline, leading to market expectations for potential rate cuts next year, which could suppress the CAD [1] Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD has entered a bullish channel after rebounding from a low of 1.33520, currently trading at 1.4654, with key support levels at 1.4640 and 1.4630 [2] - If the exchange rate breaks below the support level of 1.4620, it may trigger a short-term correction, while resistance levels are concentrated around 1.4660, 1.4680, and the upper boundary of the previous trading range at 1.4700 [2] - Technical indicators suggest a gradual emergence of an upward trend, with MACD showing a slight increase in bullish momentum and the average directional index rising to around 23, indicating a likely range-bound movement between 1.4630 and 1.4670 in the short term [2] - If the price stabilizes above 1.4680, the target could shift towards 1.4700-1.4720; conversely, a drop below 1.4630 could extend the downside to 1.4625-1.4610 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic retail prices for refined oil have remained unchanged for the sixth time this year, with the current pricing cycle expected to last until after the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, indicating stable fuel costs for residents and logistics in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - In 2023, domestic refined oil retail prices have undergone 19 adjustment cycles, including 6 increases, 6 instances of price stability, and 7 decreases. The prices for gasoline and diesel have decreased by 405 yuan/ton and 390 yuan/ton, respectively, compared to the end of last year [1]. - The next price adjustment window is set for October 13, 2023, with significant uncertainty due to the adjustment period overlapping with the holidays [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts note that the international oil price experienced fluctuations, initially rising and then falling, with limited support from market news. The market is currently characterized by flexible transaction activities and limited price volatility among major suppliers [2]. - Future oil price trends are expected to be influenced by oil inventory data, with a potential downward pressure from inventory accumulation. However, factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical disturbances in Europe may provide some support for oil prices [2]. - The anticipated resumption of oil exports from Iraq's Kurdish region raises concerns about oversupply, compounded by a bleak global economic outlook and demand prospects, making it unlikely for international oil prices to exhibit a strong upward trend in the short term [2].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude oil falling nearly 2% and WTI crude oil declining over 2% during trading on September 3 [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices dropped nearly 2%, with intraday declines exceeding 2% [1]. - WTI crude oil saw a decline of over 2%, with intraday highs approaching a 2.4% drop [3]. Group 2: Future Oil Demand and Price Predictions - OPEC's July forecast indicated that global daily oil demand is expected to increase by 1.28 million barrels in 2026 compared to 2025, driven by improved economic growth expectations in certain regions, including the OECD, the Middle East, and Africa [5]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that due to an anticipated oversupply of oil next year, Brent crude futures prices could fall to the low $50 range by the end of 2026 [5]. - The forecast suggests that while oil prices may remain near current forward contract levels in 2025, this balance is expected to break in 2026, with Brent oil's "fair value" decreasing from the current $70 range to the $50 range, particularly as inventories continue to accumulate [5].

Core Viewpoint - The "Big Three" oil companies in China, namely China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 due to falling international oil prices, despite continuing to distribute substantial dividends [2][4][8]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the combined revenue of CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC reached approximately 3.07 trillion yuan, with a net profit of 175.01 billion yuan, representing a decrease of over 29 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [2][4]. - CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC reported revenues of 1.45 trillion yuan, 1.41 trillion yuan, and 207.61 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 6.74%, 10.60%, and 8.45% [4]. - Corresponding net profits for the three companies were 839.93 billion yuan, 214.83 billion yuan, and 695.33 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 5.42%, 39.83%, and 12.79% [4]. Oil Price Impact - The average Brent crude oil price for the first half of 2025 was 71.87 USD/barrel, down 14.5% from 84.06 USD/barrel in the previous year, while the average price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was 67.60 USD/barrel, down 14.4% from 78.95 USD/barrel [4]. - The average selling prices of crude oil for CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC were 66.21 USD/barrel, 67 USD/barrel, and 69.15 USD/barrel, showing declines of 14.5%, 12.9%, and 13.9% respectively [5]. Natural Gas Performance - CNPC's natural gas segment saw a volume increase of 2.9% year-on-year, with sales reaching 151.5 billion cubic meters and operating profit rising to 18.6 billion yuan [6]. - CNOOC's natural gas revenue grew by over 16% to 27.75 billion yuan, driven by the full production of the "Deep Sea No. 1" project [6]. Dividend Distribution - Despite the decline in performance, the "Big Three" maintained a high dividend payout strategy, distributing a total of over 82.5 billion yuan, although this was a reduction of approximately 7.7 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the average international oil price for 2025 will hover around 70 USD/barrel, with potential upward risks to 90 USD/barrel and downward risks to 45 USD/barrel [3][9]. - The outlook for oil prices remains cautious, with expectations of increased downward pressure due to geopolitical factors and seasonal demand fluctuations [8][10].

Core Points - Ukrainian military conducted a drone attack on an oil pumping station in Russia, disrupting the "Friendship" oil pipeline, a crucial route for oil supply to Europe [1][3] - The operation indicates a shift in tactics, showcasing Ukraine's capability to strike deep within Russian territory [3] - The interruption of oil supply may lead to uncertainty in international oil prices and impact energy supply in Europe, potentially increasing pressure on local populations [3] Summary by Categories Military Actions - Ukrainian forces executed a drone strike on an oil pumping station in Russia, halting operations that supply the "Friendship" pipeline [1] - This action reflects a proactive military strategy by Ukraine, demonstrating their ability to target critical infrastructure within Russia [3] Energy Impact - The disruption of the "Friendship" pipeline could have significant implications for energy transportation, affecting oil supply to Europe [1][3] - There is potential for increased volatility in international oil prices due to the interruption, which may strain energy resources in Europe [3]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, marking the fourth increase this year, which has raised concerns about the downward pressure on international oil prices due to various factors including geopolitical risks and U.S. tariff policies [1][5]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have shown a downward trend in the first half of the year, with Brent crude oil futures dropping from $75.93 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $70.19 per barrel by July 9 [2]. - The price of light crude oil futures fell to a low of $59.58 per barrel in early May following the announcement of U.S. tariffs, indicating a significant impact on market sentiment [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Iran conflict, have caused fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching $78.85 per barrel in mid-June before declining again [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is heavily influenced by OPEC+'s decision to increase production, with expectations of a potential complete cancellation of voluntary production cuts by September or October, which could exacerbate supply surplus [5][7]. - U.S. tariff policies remain a significant uncertainty, with recent announcements indicating increased tariffs on imports from several countries, which could dampen global oil demand [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the international oil price will be primarily driven by supply and demand fundamentals in the second half of the year, with expectations of a seasonal decline in demand post-summer [6][7]. Group 3: Price Forecasts - Analysts have differing views on the price range for Brent crude oil in the second half of the year, with estimates ranging from $60 to $85 per barrel, but a general bearish sentiment prevails [7][8]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude oil prices could drop to around $59 per barrel by the fourth quarter of this year, citing rising recession risks and increased OPEC+ supply as key factors [8][9]. - The consensus among experts suggests that $60 per barrel may serve as a support level for Brent crude, with limited potential for prices to rise significantly above this level in the near term [7][8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The previous policy - driven market sentiment has declined, and most industrial product futures fell during the day. EB2509 dropped 1.97% to close at 7,358 yuan/ton. The domestic styrene market maintains a high - production state. Supply has increased, with last week's styrene output rising 0.67% to 361,100 tons and capacity utilization up 0.54% to 78.84%. Demand has also improved, with downstream EPS, PS, ABS consumption increasing 2.65% to 243,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased 1.46% to 205,300 tons, while the East China port inventory increased 8.81% to 150,700 tons and the South China port inventory decreased 2.04% to 19,200 tons. The styrene market is expected to maintain a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern. Next week, styrene production and capacity utilization are expected to remain stable or slightly increase. The improvement in downstream consumption may not be sustainable due to weak terminal demand. The overall inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and it is difficult to reduce inventory in the future. The cost support is limited, and the international oil price is expected to fluctuate. The market should pay attention to the latest progress of China - US tariff negotiations [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 7,358 yuan/ton, down 229 yuan; the trading volume was 431,585 lots, down 208 lots; the open interest of the active contract was 295,650 lots, down 21,424 lots; the net long position of the top 20 holders was - 23,626 lots, up 8,903 lots; the short position of the top 20 holders was 344,836 lots, down 53,457 lots; the total number of warehouse receipts was 1,900 lots, up 400 lots [2]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,736 yuan/ton, unchanged; the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 910 US dollars/ton, up 3.5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 920 US dollars/ton, up 3.5 US dollars. The mainstream prices in different regions showed variations: Northeast was 7,450 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; South China was 7,555 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; North China was 7,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China was 7,540 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene in different regions were: CFR Northeast Asia was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CIF Northwest Europe was 842.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; FD US Gulf was 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars. The spot prices of pure benzene also varied: Taiwan's CIF price was 763.83 US dollars/ton, up 26.33 US dollars; US Gulf's FOB price was 284 cents/gallon, unchanged; Rotterdam's FOB price was 755 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The market prices of pure benzene in different domestic markets were: South China was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China was 6,095 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; North China was 6,020 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 78.84%, up 0.54%. The national inventory of styrene was 205,283 tons, down 3,036 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 150,700 tons, up 12,200 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 56,200 tons, up 11,200 tons. The operating rates of downstream products changed: EPS was 55.21%, up 2.03%; ABS was 66.82%, up 0.92%; PS was 51.6%, up 1; UPR was 28%, unchanged; styrene - butadiene rubber was 73.8%, up 0.72% [2]. 5. Industry News - From July 18th to 24th, China's styrene factory output was 361,100 tons, up 2,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.84%, up 0.54%. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 243,800 tons, up 6,300 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.65%. As of July 24th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 205,300 tons, down 3,000 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices reflects a balance of market dynamics, with a decrease in gasoline and diesel prices aimed at reducing costs for consumers and logistics companies, while international oil market conditions remain volatile and influenced by geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton respectively, marking the 14th round of price adjustments this year, with a pattern of "six increases, six decreases, and two stasis" [1]. - The overall price changes for gasoline and diesel since the end of 2024 are a decrease of 225 yuan/ton and 215 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The price per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline and 0 diesel will decrease by 0.1 yuan and 0.11 yuan respectively, leading to average prices of 7.4-7.5 yuan for 92 gasoline and 7-7.2 yuan for diesel in most regions [2]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Logistics - The price reduction will lower fuel costs for private car owners and logistics companies, with an estimated saving of about 5 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank and a reduction of 0.7 yuan per 100 kilometers for typical city driving [2]. - For large logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons, the fuel cost will decrease by approximately 4.4 yuan per 100 kilometers [2]. Group 3: International Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market has shown volatility, with a slight upward trend in prices due to increased demand during the U.S. Independence Day holiday and geopolitical tensions affecting energy transport safety [2][3]. - OPEC+ has maintained a firm stance on increasing production, with plans to raise daily oil output by 548,000 barrels in August, while also revising down global oil demand forecasts for 2023 and 2026 [3]. - The next price adjustment window is set for July 29, with expectations of a slight increase in fuel prices based on current international oil price levels, although the likelihood of a price stasis remains high due to ongoing market dynamics [3].

Core Viewpoint - The international oil price is under increasing downward pressure due to multiple factors, including OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical risks, and U.S. tariff policies [2][6][10]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August, marking the fourth increase this year [2][6]. - The international oil price has shown a downward trend, with Brent crude oil futures dropping from $75.93 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $70.19 per barrel by July 9 [3]. - The price of Brent crude oil peaked at $78.85 per barrel on June 19 but fell to $71.48 per barrel by June 23 following geopolitical developments [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is expected to dominate oil price trends in the second half of the year, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production [6][8]. - The U.S. government's tariff policies are seen as a significant uncertainty that could impact global oil demand [6][10]. - Analysts predict that the supply-demand relationship will shift towards oversupply, particularly if OPEC+ accelerates production increases [8][10]. Group 3: Price Forecasts - Experts have differing views on the price range for Brent crude oil in the second half of the year, with expectations generally leaning towards a bearish outlook [9]. - Predictions suggest that Brent crude oil prices may range from $60 to $85 per barrel, with a central price around $75 [9]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude oil prices could drop to approximately $59 per barrel by the fourth quarter of this year [11].