Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The previous policy - driven market sentiment has declined, and most industrial product futures fell during the day. EB2509 dropped 1.97% to close at 7,358 yuan/ton. The domestic styrene market maintains a high - production state. Supply has increased, with last week's styrene output rising 0.67% to 361,100 tons and capacity utilization up 0.54% to 78.84%. Demand has also improved, with downstream EPS, PS, ABS consumption increasing 2.65% to 243,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased 1.46% to 205,300 tons, while the East China port inventory increased 8.81% to 150,700 tons and the South China port inventory decreased 2.04% to 19,200 tons. The styrene market is expected to maintain a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern. Next week, styrene production and capacity utilization are expected to remain stable or slightly increase. The improvement in downstream consumption may not be sustainable due to weak terminal demand. The overall inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and it is difficult to reduce inventory in the future. The cost support is limited, and the international oil price is expected to fluctuate. The market should pay attention to the latest progress of China - US tariff negotiations [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 7,358 yuan/ton, down 229 yuan; the trading volume was 431,585 lots, down 208 lots; the open interest of the active contract was 295,650 lots, down 21,424 lots; the net long position of the top 20 holders was - 23,626 lots, up 8,903 lots; the short position of the top 20 holders was 344,836 lots, down 53,457 lots; the total number of warehouse receipts was 1,900 lots, up 400 lots [2]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,736 yuan/ton, unchanged; the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 910 US dollars/ton, up 3.5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 920 US dollars/ton, up 3.5 US dollars. The mainstream prices in different regions showed variations: Northeast was 7,450 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; South China was 7,555 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; North China was 7,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China was 7,540 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene in different regions were: CFR Northeast Asia was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CIF Northwest Europe was 842.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; FD US Gulf was 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars. The spot prices of pure benzene also varied: Taiwan's CIF price was 763.83 US dollars/ton, up 26.33 US dollars; US Gulf's FOB price was 284 cents/gallon, unchanged; Rotterdam's FOB price was 755 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The market prices of pure benzene in different domestic markets were: South China was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China was 6,095 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; North China was 6,020 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 78.84%, up 0.54%. The national inventory of styrene was 205,283 tons, down 3,036 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 150,700 tons, up 12,200 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 56,200 tons, up 11,200 tons. The operating rates of downstream products changed: EPS was 55.21%, up 2.03%; ABS was 66.82%, up 0.92%; PS was 51.6%, up 1; UPR was 28%, unchanged; styrene - butadiene rubber was 73.8%, up 0.72% [2]. 5. Industry News - From July 18th to 24th, China's styrene factory output was 361,100 tons, up 2,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.84%, up 0.54%. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 243,800 tons, up 6,300 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.65%. As of July 24th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 205,300 tons, down 3,000 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices reflects a balance of market dynamics, with a decrease in gasoline and diesel prices aimed at reducing costs for consumers and logistics companies, while international oil market conditions remain volatile and influenced by geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton respectively, marking the 14th round of price adjustments this year, with a pattern of "six increases, six decreases, and two stasis" [1]. - The overall price changes for gasoline and diesel since the end of 2024 are a decrease of 225 yuan/ton and 215 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The price per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline and 0 diesel will decrease by 0.1 yuan and 0.11 yuan respectively, leading to average prices of 7.4-7.5 yuan for 92 gasoline and 7-7.2 yuan for diesel in most regions [2]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Logistics - The price reduction will lower fuel costs for private car owners and logistics companies, with an estimated saving of about 5 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank and a reduction of 0.7 yuan per 100 kilometers for typical city driving [2]. - For large logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons, the fuel cost will decrease by approximately 4.4 yuan per 100 kilometers [2]. Group 3: International Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market has shown volatility, with a slight upward trend in prices due to increased demand during the U.S. Independence Day holiday and geopolitical tensions affecting energy transport safety [2][3]. - OPEC+ has maintained a firm stance on increasing production, with plans to raise daily oil output by 548,000 barrels in August, while also revising down global oil demand forecasts for 2023 and 2026 [3]. - The next price adjustment window is set for July 29, with expectations of a slight increase in fuel prices based on current international oil price levels, although the likelihood of a price stasis remains high due to ongoing market dynamics [3].

Core Viewpoint - The international oil price is under increasing downward pressure due to multiple factors, including OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical risks, and U.S. tariff policies [2][6][10]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August, marking the fourth increase this year [2][6]. - The international oil price has shown a downward trend, with Brent crude oil futures dropping from $75.93 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $70.19 per barrel by July 9 [3]. - The price of Brent crude oil peaked at $78.85 per barrel on June 19 but fell to $71.48 per barrel by June 23 following geopolitical developments [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is expected to dominate oil price trends in the second half of the year, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production [6][8]. - The U.S. government's tariff policies are seen as a significant uncertainty that could impact global oil demand [6][10]. - Analysts predict that the supply-demand relationship will shift towards oversupply, particularly if OPEC+ accelerates production increases [8][10]. Group 3: Price Forecasts - Experts have differing views on the price range for Brent crude oil in the second half of the year, with expectations generally leaning towards a bearish outlook [9]. - Predictions suggest that Brent crude oil prices may range from $60 to $85 per barrel, with a central price around $75 [9]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude oil prices could drop to approximately $59 per barrel by the fourth quarter of this year [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, EB2506 is expected to oscillate weakly, with support around 6840 yuan/ton. The supply pressure of styrene spot will increase as the 125 - million - ton facilities of Wanhua and Zhejiang Petrochemical restart. The demand for EPS, PS, and ABS is average, and the finished - product inventory remains high. The policy uncertainty is high, and the foreign trade environment is difficult to improve significantly. During the National Day, the supply - demand contradiction of styrene spot will intensify. The international oil price is expected to oscillate, and the downstream demand for pure benzene is limited after pre - holiday stocking [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract is 7072 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 350427 lots, a decrease of 148831 lots. The long - position volume of the top 20 holders is 405334 lots, a decrease of 14948 lots. The net long - position volume of the top 20 holders is 305 lots, an increase of 9273 lots. The short - position volume of the top 20 holders is 405029 lots, a decrease of 24221 lots. The 3 - month contract closing price is 6904 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton. The open interest of the active contract is 290962 lots, a decrease of 31344 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 805 lots, a decrease of 90 lots [2]. - The FOB South Korea middle - price of styrene is 870.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/ton. The CFR China middle - price is 880.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/ton [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7748 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 7275 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton), 7445 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), 7305 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton), and 7265 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia middle - price of ethylene is 791 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia middle - price is 871 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe middle - price is 799.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5 dollars/ton; the FD US Gulf price is 457 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 dollars/ton [2]. - The FOB US Gulf price of pure benzene is 257 cents/gallon, an increase of 6 cents/gallon; the CIF Taiwan price is 722.27 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB Rotterdam price is 650 dollars/ton, a decrease of 19 dollars/ton. The market prices in South, East, and North China are 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5920 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and 5900 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate is 67.93%, an increase of 1.16 percentage points. The national styrene inventory is 216307 tons, a decrease of 2177 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port is 8.52 million tons, a decrease of 0.13 million tons; the trade inventory is 5.82 million tons, a decrease of 0.69 million tons [2]. - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 57.04% (down 2.03 percentage points), 65.08% (down 1.91 percentage points), 58.7% (down 2.1 percentage points), 28% (unchanged), and 71.95% (down 1.29 percentage points) respectively [2]. Industry News - From April 18th to 24th, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 311,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.77%; the plant capacity utilization rate was 67.93%, a month - on - month increase of 1.16% [2]. - From April 18th to 24th, the consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of Chinese styrene was 252,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.73% [2]. - As of April 24th, the styrene plant inventory was 216,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; as of April 28th, the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 85,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%, and the inventory in South China ports was 25,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.02% [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The EB2506 contract decreased by 0.69% to close at 7072 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the 720,000 - ton facility of Dalian Hengli restarted. Last week, the styrene output increased by 1.77% month - on - month to 311,200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.16% month - on - month to 67.93%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rates mainly decreased last week, and the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS decreased by 2.73% month - on - month to 252,600 tons [2]. - In terms of inventory, the plant inventory decreased by 4.30% month - on - month to 218,400 tons; the East China port inventory decreased by 9.52% month - on - month to 86,500 tons, and the South China port inventory increased by 2.31% month - on - month to 26,600 tons [2].