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苯乙烯:供需预期好转但成本支撑偏弱 驱动有限
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-11-26 02:09
Market Overview - On November 25, the East China styrene market experienced slight fluctuations, with increased port arrivals leading to higher port inventories, which pressured market trading atmosphere [1] - The current spot price for styrene is between 6490 to 6510 yuan/ton, with December contracts at 6520 to 6540 yuan/ton, and January contracts at 6540 to 6570 yuan/ton [1] Profitability - As of November 25, the profit for non-integrated styrene units is approximately 16 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand - Styrene production as of November 20 is 342,900 tons, with an operating rate of 68.95% [3] - Styrene inventory in Jiangsu as of November 24 totals 164,200 tons, an increase of 15,900 tons from the previous period [3] - Downstream capacity utilization rates are as follows: EPS at 56.27% (+4.64%), PS at 55.90% (+0.5%), and ABS at 72.4% (+0.6%) [3] Market Outlook - With the recovery of styrene profits, some factories are increasing their load, but there are also some units undergoing maintenance, leading to limited overall supply [4] - Demand is expected to be constrained due to high finished product inventories and compressed profits in some downstream sectors [4] - Although short-term expectations for styrene supply and demand are improving, the rebound potential is limited due to weak cost support and anticipated demand weakening [4]
苯乙烯:供需预期好转但成本端支撑有限 苯乙烯短期低位震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-04 03:10
Market Overview - On September 3, the styrene market in East China stabilized slightly, with port inventory increasing marginally, supporting market sentiment. Overall supply of goods is ample, and the industry is operating at a high utilization rate, but downstream demand is weak, particularly in the EPS sector, which has seen a decline in operating rates. The industry continues to experience losses, and the basis trend remains stable, with market participants buying on dips [1][4]. Profitability - As of September 3, the profit for non-integrated styrene units is around -140 yuan/ton [2]. Supply and Demand - As of August 28, the overall production of styrene is 368,600 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons, with an operating rate of 78.07%, down by 0.465%. - As of September 1, the total port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu is 196,500 tons, an increase of 17,500 tons from the previous cycle; the commodity inventory is 96,500 tons, up by 12,500 tons [3]. - As of August 28, the capacity utilization rates for downstream products are as follows: EPS at 58.35%, down by 2.63%; PS at 59.9%, up by 2.4%; ABS at 70.8%, down by 0.3% [3]. Market Outlook - The EPS and PS sectors are experiencing reduced operating rates due to compressed industry profits. Currently, the styrene industry is not facing significant losses, and short-term supply remains high with elevated port inventory levels, leading to weak short-term driving forces for styrene. However, there are plans for increased maintenance of domestic styrene units in September and October, along with expectations for increased exports due to overseas unit maintenance. This suggests a potential improvement in supply-demand dynamics for styrene. If oil prices do not decline sharply, the further downside for styrene prices is expected to be limited. The strategy suggests monitoring support around 6,900 yuan and considering light long positions at low levels, while primarily focusing on short positions during rebounds [4].
苯乙烯:供需预期偏弱且高估值下 苯乙烯涨幅受限
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-10 02:23
Supply and Demand - As of July 3, the overall production of styrene was 366,600 tons, with a utilization rate of 80.03% [2] - As of July 7, the total port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 111,500 tons, an increase of 12.85% from the previous period [2] - The capacity utilization rates for downstream products as of July 3 were 55.88% for EPS, 52.4% for PS, and 65.04% for ABS, indicating a decline in production [2] Market Outlook - The styrene industry is experiencing good profits, but there are expectations of increased supply due to the gradual recovery of previously shut down facilities and the commissioning of new ones [3] - Despite the strong short-term price support from oil prices and a favorable domestic commodity atmosphere, the overall price increase for styrene is limited due to weak supply-demand expectations and high valuations [3] - Strategies suggested include monitoring the pressure around 7,500 for EB08 and considering selling call options above this price [3]