| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 87 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) -5728 1月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6533 361779 | | | 402114 6533 | 116537 87 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | | 手) | | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, -3466 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 319939 | | | -45468 | 2046 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) -7774 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) | 407247 | | | 200 | -1260 | | 现货市场 | 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 46 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) 市场价:苯乙烯:东北地区:主流价(日,元/吨 | 6636 | | | 802 ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-11-26 苯乙烯检修仍持续 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-111元/吨（-1）。纯苯港口库存16.40万吨（+1.70万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费101美元/吨 （-10美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费89美元/吨（-9美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差179.8美元/吨（-10.1美元/吨）。华东纯 苯现货-M2价差-100元/吨（+5元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-850元/吨（+275），酚酮生产利润-415元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润499元/吨（+3）， 己二酸生产利润-1245元/吨（+23）。己内酰胺开工率88.23%（+2.18%），苯酚开工率79.00%（+12.00%），苯胺开工 率75.68%（-4.49%），己二酸开工率55.50%（-6.50%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差64元/吨（+0元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-223元/吨（+30元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存164200吨（+15900吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存94200吨（+6900吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率69.0%（-0.3 ...

【现货方面】 苯乙烯下游：截至11月20日，EPS产能利用率56.27%（+4.64%）；PS产能利用率55.90%（+0.5%）； ABS产能利用率72.4%（+0.6%）。 11月25日，非一体化苯乙烯装置利润至16元/吨附近。 【供需方面】 苯乙烯供应：截至11月20日，苯乙烯整体产量在34.29万吨（-0.15万吨），开工率至68.95%（-0.3%）。 【行情展望】 随着苯乙烯利润修复，部分工厂负荷提升，但同时有部分装置停车检修，整体货源供应有限；部分下游 受成品高库存及利润压缩的压力，预计需求支撑有限。海外调油需求影响有所降温，港口库存由去转 累。虽短期苯乙烯供需预期好转，不过随着行业利润修复以及需求转弱预期，叠加成本端支撑偏弱，苯 乙烯反弹空间受限，整体驱动有限。后续关注苯乙烯装置变动及实际出口成交情况。短期EB01震荡对 待。 11月25日，华东市场苯乙烯市场窄幅震荡，港口到船增多，预计港口库存走高，承压市场交投气氛，加 之纯苯供需偏弱，下游高价采购跟进乏力，基差回落后走稳，月底贸易商补货情绪一般，苯乙烯行业利 润修复。据PEC统计，至收盘现货6490~6510（12合约+70~85），12月 ...

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 11 月 25 日 星期二 供需弱化与成本变量共振，芳烃震荡运行 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：11 月 24 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 1.09%，报 6436 元/吨，基 差 64（+11 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收跌 1.33%，报 5435 元/吨。 成本：11 月 24 日布油主力收盘 58.1 美元/桶（-0.9 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 61.9 美元/桶（-0.9 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5320 元/吨（-40 元/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 14.8 万吨（-2.7 万吨），环比去库 15.2%，苯乙烯 延续去库但仍高于往年。纯苯港口库存 14.7 万吨（+3.4 万吨），环比累 库 30.1%。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前，苯乙烯周产量 34.3 万吨（-0.1 万吨），工厂产能利用率 69.0%（-0.3%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 56.3% （+4.6%），ABS 产能利用率 72.4%（+0.6%），PS 产能利用率 55.9 ...

纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-110元/吨（+28）。纯苯港口库存16.40万吨（+1.70万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费111美元/ 吨（-1美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费98美元/吨（-2美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差189.9美元/吨（+25.1美元/吨）。华东 纯苯现货-M2价差-105元/吨（+40元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1125元/吨（+70），酚酮生产利润-415元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润499元/吨（+3）， 己二酸生产利润-1268元/吨（+41）。己内酰胺开工率88.23%（+2.18%），苯酚开工率79.00%（+12.00%），苯胺开工 率75.68%（-4.49%），己二酸开工率55.50%（-6.50%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差64元/吨（+11元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-252元/吨（-21元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存164200吨（+15900吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存94200吨（+6900吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率69.0%（-0.3%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润115元/吨（-41元/吨），PS生产利润-35元/吨（+ ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 海外汽油裂差走强，纯苯苯乙烯震荡偏强 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 苯乙烯：乙苯调油推动纯苯苯乙烯价格上行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 关于苯乙烯的经济性，苯乙烯与石脑油的价差约为200美元，苯乙烯与苯的价差为125美元/桶，价差小幅扩张，非一体化的生产利润依然是负值。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 截至2025年11月17日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：14.7万吨，较上期库存11.3万吨累库3.4万吨，环比上升30.09%；较去年同期库存11.77万吨累库 2.93万吨，同比上升24.89%。供给端检修传闻有所增加，海外由于衍生品的低开工率，需求依然不佳。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 截至202 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market continues to be weak. Recently, the arrival rhythm of imports has been relatively dense, and port inventories have significantly increased, putting pressure on the spot market. The spot discount has widened, and the basis has further weakened, indicating a shift in market sentiment from stable to weak. Although low gasoline inventories provide some support for Asian aromatics, the overall external processing margin is weakening, and its support for the domestic market is limited. Overseas arbitrage spreads have been repaired, which may attract some South Korean supplies to flow outward, alleviating China's subsequent import pressure to some extent, but this effect is more medium - term. Domestically, supply is moderately increasing, while downstream demand is insufficient. The profitability of major benzene - consuming products like caprolactam and phenol - acetone is severely compressed, and their operating rates are mostly weak or only at a rigid level, unable to effectively consume pure benzene. In general, pure benzene is still in a weak - equilibrium state dominated by inventory in the short term, with the supply - demand mismatch intensifying spot pressure and prices showing weak fluctuations. Future focus should be on changes in import rhythm and signs of increased operating rates due to active resumption of downstream plants or improved profitability [2]. - Styrene shows more resilience than pure benzene, presenting a structural divergence. Although the price difference between the futures and spot markets has adjusted, the inventory in East China continues to decline, reflecting the combined effect of tight supply and improved short - term exports. Currently, styrene's operating rate is relatively low, and plant maintenance effectively restricts supply, keeping inventory in a downward trend. The market is also concerned about the resumption of plant operations at the end of the month. Once the resumptions are concentrated, the tight supply pattern may be alleviated, and the inventory trend may reverse, which requires continuous monitoring [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamental Information - **Price**: On November 20, the main styrene futures contract closed up 0.55% at 6,595 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20 (+19 yuan/ton); the main pure benzene futures contract closed up 1.14% at 5,595 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,420 yuan/ton (+25 yuan/ton), Brent crude oil closed at $59.4/barrel (-$1.3/barrel), and WTI crude oil closed at $63.5/barrel (-$1.4/barrel) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 14.8 tons (-2.7 tons), a 15.2% month - on - month decline, continuing the destocking trend but still higher than in previous years. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.7 tons (+3.4 tons), a 30.1% month - on - month increase [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene's operating rate and supply fluctuated slightly month - on - month. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 34.3 tons (-0.1 tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate is 69.0% (-0.3%) [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S products has recovered. The capacity utilization rate of EPS is 56.3% (+4.6%), ABS is 72.4% (+0.6%), and PS is 55.9% (+0.5%) [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices | Product | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene (Futures Main Contract) | 6,559.0 yuan/ton | 6,595.0 yuan/ton | 0.55% | | Styrene (Spot) | 6,594.0 yuan/ton | 6,620.0 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | Styrene Basis | 1.0 yuan/ton | 20.0 yuan/ton | 190000% | | Pure Benzene (Futures Main Contract) | 5,533.0 yuan/ton | 5,596.0 yuan/ton | 1.14% | | Pure Benzene (East China) | 5,390.0 yuan/ton | 5,455.0 yuan/ton | 1.21% | | Pure Benzene (South Korea FOB) | $664.0/ton | $664.0/ton | 0.00% | | Pure Benzene (US FOB) | $829.9/ton | $829.9/ton | 0.00% | | Pure Benzene (China CFR) | $677.2/ton | $677.2/ton | 0.00% | | Pure Benzene Domestic - CFR Price Difference | -408.0 yuan/ton | -345.7 yuan/ton | 15.28% | | Pure Benzene East China - Shandong Price Difference | -160.0 yuan/ton | -45.0 yuan/ton | 71.88% | | Brent Crude Oil | $60.7/barrel | $59.4/barrel | -2.14% | | WTI Crude Oil | $64.9/barrel | $63.5/barrel | -2.13% | | Naphtha | 7,106.5 yuan/ton | 7,106.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | [5] 3.2.2 Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory | Product | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/21 | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene Production (China) | 34.4 tons | 34.3 tons | -0.43% | | Pure Benzene Production (China) | 45.4 tons | 44.7 tons | -1.67% | | Styrene Port Inventory (Jiangsu) | 17.5 tons | 14.8 tons | -15.16% | | Styrene Factory Inventory (Domestic) | 18.9 tons | 18.8 tons | -0.70% | | Pure Benzene Port Inventory (National) | 11.3 tons | 14.7 tons | 30.09% | [6] 3.2.3 Operating Rate | Product | 2025/11/14 Capacity Utilization | 2025/11/21 Capacity Utilization | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 69.3% | 69.0% | -0.30% | | Caprolactam (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 86.0% | 88.2% | 2.18% | | Phenol (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 67.3% | 78.7% | 11.46% | | Aniline (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 80.2% | 75.7% | -4.49% | | EPS (Styrene Downstream) | 51.6% | 56.3% | 4.64% | | ABS (Styrene Downstream) | 71.8% | 72.4% | 0.60% | | PS (Styrene Downstream) | 55.4% | 55.9% | 0.50% | [7] 3.3 Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals. - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 119,000 in September, higher than market expectations. - Iran's foreign minister announced the official termination of the Cairo Agreement signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency. - The US Department of Energy announced a restructuring, prioritizing oil and nuclear energy resources and replacing the previous department dedicated to renewable energy and energy efficiency [8]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene price differences, styrene and pure benzene import - domestic cost differences, styrene port and factory inventories, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline. The data sources are iFinD and Steel Union Data [13][18][22][28][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For pure benzene, low US gasoline inventory supports Asian aromatics through gasoline blending. The arbitrage spread from South Korea to the US has been significantly repaired, potentially easing long - term Chinese arrival pressure, but short - term arrival pressure still exists, with rising port inventory and a weak basis. Domestic production has not further increased after an earlier rise, and downstream开工 remains low. Phenol开工 has increased significantly, while aniline and adipic acid开工 have declined, and styrene is in the maintenance period waiting for recovery at the end of the month [3]. - For styrene, port inventory continues to decline due to export boost and low domestic开工, but there is a resumption expectation at the end of November. Downstream开工 remains low, with EPS开工 rising from a low level but still in the off - season, and ABS and PS开工 slightly rising from a low level, with inventory pressure still existing for PS and ABS [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene basis and inter - period spreads include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene consecutive first - to - third contract spread [1][15]. - Figures related to EB basis and inter - period spreads include the EB main contract basis and EB consecutive first - to - third contract spread [20]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Production profit and spread figures for pure benzene and styrene include naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated device production profit, and various international price spreads of pure benzene and styrene, as well as their import profits [22][25][34]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - For pure benzene, the inventory figure is the East China port inventory, and the operating rate figure is the pure benzene operating rate. For styrene, inventory figures include East China port inventory, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory, and the operating rate figure is the styrene operating rate [40][42][45]. 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Downstream products of styrene include EPS, PS, and ABS. Figures cover their operating rates and production profits [51][53][54]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Downstream products of pure benzene include caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other related products. Figures cover their operating rates and production profits [60][63][72]. Strategies - Unilateral: None [4]. - Basis and Inter - Period: Conduct long - short inter - period positive arbitrage for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices [4]. - Cross - Variety: Expand the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others [9][19]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the significant price increases in products such as toluene (up 25.22%) and liquid chlorine (up 13.73%), while products like butadiene and vinyl acetate saw notable declines [4][5][16]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of the current international oil price fluctuations [6][19]. - The report anticipates that the international oil price will stabilize around $65 per barrel, which could benefit companies with high dividend yields and those that are sensitive to raw material price declines [6][19]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets for potential investment opportunities [19]. - It recommends companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to enter a favorable economic cycle [19]. - The report also highlights the resilience of domestic chemical fertilizer and certain pesticide sectors, suggesting a focus on companies like China Heartland Fertilizer and Hualu Hengsheng [19]. Price Trends and Market Analysis - The report notes that while some chemical products have rebounded in price, the overall industry remains weak, with mixed performance across sub-sectors [17][19]. - It provides detailed price movements for various chemicals, indicating a general trend of price increases for certain products and declines for others [4][5][16]. - The report discusses the impact of OPEC's decisions on oil prices and how this affects the chemical industry, particularly in terms of raw material costs [6][20]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - The report includes a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, with a focus on their expected EPS and PE ratios for the coming years [9]. - Companies such as Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others are highlighted for their strong market positions and potential for growth [9][19]. - The report suggests that companies with strong asset quality and high dividend yields, like the "three barrels of oil," will benefit from the current market conditions [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the concentrated arrival of pure benzene in China has led to a rapid increase in port inventories and a weakening of the basis. The domestic production start - up continues to rise, while the downstream start - up is weak. For styrene, port inventories continue to decline due to export boosts and low domestic start - up, but there is a resumption expectation at the end of November. Recently, the increase in pure benzene inventory and the decrease in styrene inventory are conducive to the short - term expansion of the EB - BZ spread [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis, main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first and third contracts. Also, EB's main contract trend and basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third contracts are presented [7][10][15] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profits, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB Korea, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, the difference between pure benzene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, pure benzene import profits, styrene import profits, the difference between styrene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, and the difference between styrene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [18][21][36] 3. Inventories and Start - up Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show pure benzene's East China port inventory, start - up rate, styrene's East China port inventory, start - up rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [38][40][43] 4. Start - up and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures present the start - up rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [49][51][52] 5. Start - up and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures include the start - up rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [58][64][82]