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苯乙烯:宏观利好盘面有所反复 但高估值问题或突出
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-03 02:08
Group 1: Styrene Market Overview - The styrene market in East China experienced slight fluctuations, closing at 7530-7560 CNY/ton, with July contracts at 7500-7550 CNY/ton, August contracts at 7380-7420 CNY/ton, and September contracts at 7300-7330 CNY/ton [1] - The pure benzene market saw a decline followed by a low-level rebound, with Jiangsu port spot negotiations closing at 5810/5820 CNY/ton, July contracts at 5860/5865 CNY/ton, August contracts at 5900/5910 CNY/ton, and September contracts at 5915/5925 CNY/ton [2] Group 2: Supply and Inventory Analysis - As of June 26, pure benzene capacity utilization was at 78.01%, with a weekly production of 432,600 tons. The inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports was 177,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period, and a year-on-year increase of 743% from 21,000 tons [3] - Styrene production was reported at 366,800 tons with a capacity utilization of 80.08%. The inventory of styrene at Jiangsu ports was 98,800 tons, an increase of 13,800 tons, while the main inventory in South China was 15,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The pure benzene market is expected to continue its low-level rebound due to supply recovery and new installations, although the processing margin for benzene to styrene has widened to 1400 CNY/ton [4] - The styrene market is stabilizing, with strong basis prices as the end of the month approaches, but high-priced purchases from downstream are limited. The mid-term outlook suggests that tariffs and national subsidies may not significantly drive terminal demand, and the high profits in styrene production may lead to continued supply pressure [4]