Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests that Powell's stance in the upcoming June FOMC meeting may lean hawkish, potentially disappointing investors expecting rate cuts [1] - The recent sell-off of U.S. assets is attributed more to tariff policy impacts rather than a loss of confidence in the dollar's reserve currency status, although long-term trends could weaken this status [2] - Analysts predict a further decline in U.S. Treasury yields over the next few months, with the 10-year yield expected to drop to 4.35% in three months and 4.29% in six months from the current 4.48% [2] Group 2 - The decline in UK GDP provides another reason for the Bank of England to consider a rate cut in August, with April's GDP shrinking by 0.3% [3] - The current low volatility in the foreign exchange market may trigger a rebound in the dollar, as interest rate differentials become more pronounced [3] - Despite concerns over excess supply in the U.S. Treasury market, most economists expect the Federal Reserve to only cut rates two times or less this year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in UK GDP provides further justification for the Bank of England to consider an interest rate cut in August [1] Economic Performance - The GDP shrank by 0.3% in April, supporting the view that the 0.7% growth in the first quarter was unsustainable [1] - Second-quarter data may exaggerate economic weakness, alleviating concerns about a recession [1] External Factors - New tariffs and domestic companies cutting spending to offset increased costs from tax hikes in April are expected to drag on the economy due to weak overseas demand [1] - Despite these challenges, the current economic conditions are not sufficient to prompt an interest rate cut by the Bank of England next week [1]