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美国关税政策 与美元特里芬难题
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 16:54
[ 今年上半年,洲际交易所(ICE)的美元指数(DXY)累计下跌10.8%,创1973年以来同期最大跌幅, 与美国国际资本流动状况大相径庭。 ] 所谓特里芬难题是指在主权货币作为国际储备货币的情况下,主权货币发行国需要通过国际收支逆差向 全球提供该货币的流动性,但这又会导致货币贬值和信心危机,从而陷入两难境地。该理论完美地预见 到了上世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系的解体。 美国财政部披露的国际资本流动报告数据(TIC)显示,今年上半年,美国国际资本大规模净流入,与 同期美元指数大幅走弱相悖,显示美元弱势与外资抛售美国证券无关,而主要受其边际变动的影响。美 国政府以关税工具胁迫贸易伙伴签订的一系列新贸易协议,在收敛美国贸易逆差的同时,将削弱美国吸 引外来证券投资的潜力,并有损美元储备货币地位。 美指暴跌缘于资本流动的边际变化 TIC统计显示,今年上半年,美国吸引国际资本净流入7677亿美元,同比增加4799亿美元,增长2.78 倍。同期,洲际交易所(ICE)的美元指数(DXY)累计下跌10.8%,创1973年以来同期最大跌幅,与 美国国际资本流动状况大相径庭。然而,从美国国际资本流动的边际变化中或能找到美指大跌的答 ...
管涛:美国关税政策与美元特里芬难题︱汇海观涛
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 12:35
美国政府掀起的全球关税风暴或重置全球贸易体系和国际货币体系。 所谓特里芬难题是指在主权货币作为国际储备货币的情况下,主权货币发行国需要通过国际收支逆差向 全球提供该货币的流动性,但这又会导致货币贬值和信心危机,从而陷入两难境地。该理论完美地预见 到了上世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系的解体。 美国财政部披露的国际资本流动报告数据(TIC)显示,今年上半年,美国国际资本大规模净流入,与 同期美元指数大幅走弱相悖,显示美元弱势与外资抛售美国证券无关,而主要受其边际变动的影响。美 国政府以关税工具胁迫贸易伙伴签订的一系列新贸易协议,在收敛美国贸易逆差的同时,将削弱美国吸 引外来证券投资的潜力,并有损美元储备货币地位。 美指暴跌缘于资本流动的边际变化 TIC统计显示,今年上半年,美国吸引国际资本净流入7677亿美元,同比增加4799亿美元,增长2.78 倍。同期,洲际交易所(ICE)的美元指数(DXY)累计下跌10.8%,创1973年以来同期最大跌幅,与 美国国际资本流动状况大相径庭。然而,从美国国际资本流动的边际变化中或能找到美指大跌的答案。 全球美元储备份额或继续稳中趋降 根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)最新的全球外汇储 ...
美联储主席热门人选布拉德放话:年内降息1个百分点,9月就动手?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 07:49
美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行前任行长布拉德(JamesBullard)近期呼吁美国联邦储备局在年内降息1个百 分点,他同时认为美联储在2026年仍有进一步降息空间。 布拉德是有望接替鲍威尔出任下任美联储主席的人选之一,曾于2008年至2023年间长期担任圣路易斯联 储银行行长。 布拉德近期接受福克斯商业频道访问时表示:"当前利率水平略高,我认为在2026年之前可降低约100个 基点(即1个百分点)。我认为可在9月例行会议开始降息,后续再跟进。" 美国联邦基金利率当前处于4.25%至4.5%的区间,市场当前普遍预测美联储将在9月降息25个基点。 至于明年是否仍有降息空间,布拉德指出这取决于经济数据所呈现的趋势,他同时强调必须捍卫美元的 储备货币地位。 布拉德目前担任普渡大学商学院院长,他在访问中透露,自己已与美国财长贝森特接触,谈及竞逐美联 储主席一职,希望获得贝森特安排面试,时间可能在9月1日美国劳动节之后。 ...
美联储主席潜在人选布拉德呼吁今年降息100基点 计划劳动节后与美财长会面
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 14:21
布拉德称,他已就自己竞选美联储主席一事与财政部长贝森特保持联系,并计划在9月1日劳动节之 后"可能"安排一次面谈。 (文章来源:新华财经) 至于明年是否进一步降息,布拉德表示将取决于数据表现。他同时强调了维护美元储备货币地位的必要 性。 新华财经北京8月21日电美国圣路易斯联储前总裁、美联储主席候选人布拉德呼吁今年降息100个基点。 ...
美联储主席潜在人选布拉德计划劳动节后与美财长会面
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 12:37
Group 1 - The former St. Louis Fed President, Brad, is a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair and has been in contact with Treasury Secretary Basant regarding his candidacy [1] - Brad plans to potentially arrange a meeting after Labor Day on September 1 to discuss his candidacy further [1] - The decision on whether to lower interest rates further next year will depend on economic data performance, according to Brad [1] - Brad emphasized the importance of maintaining the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [1]
37万亿美债还不起了!特朗普决定“干掉”大债主,美联储主席被告上法庭!关键时刻,美方呼吁中美联手?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 08:53
美债规模突破37万亿美元的消息,正让这场风波变得更复杂。中国社科院副研究员杨子荣从三个角度解 读这一数字:现在美国联邦政府债务占GDP的比重,已经超过二战后的最高值,财政状况亮起红灯;新 冠疫情以来,这一数字涨了14万亿美元还多,扩张速度让人揪心;按美国国会预算办公室的预测,到 2050年,债务占GDP比重可能达到160%,未来增长势头丝毫没有放缓的迹象。 这笔巨额债务对美国经济的冲击正在逐渐显现。政府要还的利息越来越多,其他公共开支的空间被大大 压缩,以后经济要是再衰退,想靠财政政策稳住局面都难。国际市场对美债能不能持续还上钱的质疑声 越来越大,三大国际信用评级机构里,美国已经丢了最高评级,这和大家对美国中期财政规划、政治治 理能力的担忧直接相关。更严重的是,要是全球对美债的信心彻底没了,美元作为主要储备货币的地位 恐怕也保不住。 据央视新闻报道,当地时间8月12日,央视报道称特朗普向美联储主席鲍威尔施压降息,还暗示要就美 联储总部翻修费用起诉。 ...
美联储威廉姆斯:关税对通胀影响将更大 限制性政策“完全恰当”
智通财经网· 2025-07-17 01:14
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current tightening policy is deemed "entirely appropriate" by the New York Fed President Williams, who anticipates that tariffs will have a greater impact on inflation in the coming months [1] - Williams expects tariffs to raise inflation rates by approximately one percentage point from the second half of this year until 2026, with a weaker dollar potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures [1] - Recent inflation data indicates that tariffs imposed by Trump on imported goods have started to increase prices for certain items, although overall consumer prices have decreased for five consecutive months due to moderate service cost increases [1] Group 2 - Williams predicts that the economic growth rate will decline to around 1% this year, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to approximately 4.5% [2] - The importance of an independent central bank for national economic health is emphasized, with Williams stating that it leads to better outcomes in price and economic stability [2] - Despite a more than 8% depreciation of the dollar against a basket of developed market currencies this year, Williams reassures that the dollar's status as a reserve currency remains solid, supported by fundamental factors [2]
特朗普要金砖解体,对11国“宣战”,巴西瞄准美元,替中俄打前阵
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 03:51
Core Viewpoint - Trump is determined to ignite a new round of global trade wars, specifically targeting countries aligned with BRICS, threatening an additional 10% tariff on them [1][3]. Group 1: Trade War Dynamics - Trump has expressed concerns that BRICS nations are undermining the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, equating its loss to "losing a world war" [3]. - The U.S. has issued unilateral tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on 14 countries, with Southeast Asia being heavily impacted, including allies like Japan and South Korea [3]. - The BRICS summit revealed that BRICS GDP, calculated by purchasing power parity, reached $77 trillion, surpassing G7's $57 trillion, indicating a significant shift in global economic power [3][5]. Group 2: Responses from BRICS Nations - Vietnam has capitulated to U.S. pressure, agreeing to lower tariffs to avoid losing access to the American market, which constitutes a significant portion of its GDP [5]. - In contrast, Brazilian President Lula publicly rejected U.S. dominance, stating, "We do not want an emperor," highlighting the resistance among BRICS nations [5]. - A joint statement from BRICS countries criticized unilateral tariffs as violations of WTO rules, signaling a united front against U.S. actions [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The rise of BRICS is not merely numerical but represents a restructuring of global economic systems, controlling over 44% of global oil production and over 90% of rare earth supply chains [5]. - Lula emphasized the need for alternative currencies beyond the dollar in global trade, suggesting a shift towards a multipolar world order that could isolate the U.S. [6].
短期波动无关霸权!贝森特驳斥“美元贬值削弱全球地位”论调
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-04 01:55
Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismisses concerns about the potential depreciation of the dollar undermining its status as the global reserve currency, emphasizing that the strength of the dollar is not directly linked to its price [1][2] Group 1: Dollar's Status and Policy - The dollar index has dropped nearly 11% in the first half of the year, marking the worst performance since 1973, amid concerns over Trump's policies, including tariffs and diplomatic stances [1] - Bessent asserts that the Trump administration is taking long-term measures to maintain the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [1] - He questions the notion that the current environment presents an opportunity for reduced reliance on the dollar, emphasizing that a reserve currency must allow for free trading [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Federal Reserve - Bessent expresses skepticism about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, indicating that the two-year U.S. Treasury yield suggests the benchmark rate is too high [2] - The current target for the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, while the two-year Treasury yield is approximately 3.76% [2] - He notes that if the Fed does not lower rates, the potential cut in September could be more significant [2] Group 3: Debt Strategy and Management - Bessent discusses the debt management strategy, indicating that the Treasury will consider the high two-year yield when making decisions about debt repayment [4] - He refrains from commenting on predictions regarding the reduction of the federal deficit by up to $11 trillion over the next decade due to Trump's policies, stating that long-term forecasts are difficult [4] - The next quarterly refinancing meeting is scheduled for July 30, where any changes in debt strategy will be announced [4]
美财长:美元贬值无关“强美元政策” 储备货币地位稳固
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 23:48
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has dismissed concerns regarding the recent depreciation of the dollar affecting its status as a global reserve currency, asserting that the dollar's value is unrelated to a "strong dollar policy" [1][2] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar index experienced its worst first half since 1973, with a decline of nearly 11% [1] - The depreciation is attributed to concerns over President Trump's policies, including potential economic impacts from tariff increases and a tough diplomatic stance towards long-time allies [1] Group 2: Economic Policies - The Treasury Secretary emphasized that the Republican tax legislation is creating conditions for economic growth and controlling inflation, positioning the U.S. as a prime destination for global capital investment [1] - There is skepticism regarding the potential for a shift away from dollar dependency in the global financial system, despite discussions about the euro's rising significance [1] Group 3: Euro and Dollar Dynamics - The depreciation of the dollar has led to an increase in the euro's value, with the current exchange rate at 1.175 [1] - Historical context indicates that when the euro strengthens, European Central Bank officials often express concerns about the negative impact on export competitiveness [1]