宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.21 ss 2025-12-26 美联储或暂停降息，日央行如期加息 ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 本周大宗商品中铜与金表现亮眼，发达市场股票表现优于新兴市场。美国就业市场 仍处于弱而不崩的状态，通胀增速不及预期，二次反弹风险相对可控，美联储短期 内或暂停降息进行观望。日央行如期加息 25BP，未来或仍将缓慢加息。欧央行降息 周期或已接近终点。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。本周（2025.12.15-2025.12.19），全球大宗商品 价格涨跌互现。其中，IPE 布油期货下跌 1.1%，标普-高盛商品指数 下跌 0.5%，而 COMEX 铜上涨 2.3%,，伦敦金现上涨 1.0%，南华商 品指数上涨 0.1%。 股票市场方面，新兴市场股票市场表现弱于发达市场。其中日经 225 下跌 2.6%，幅度最大。恒生指数下跌 1.1%。上证综指与上周 持平，标普 500 上涨 0.1%。新兴市场股票指数下跌 1.5%，发达市 场股票指数上涨 0.2%。债市方面，10 年期美债收益率较上周回落 3BP 至 4.16%，国内 10 ...

【12月18日英国央行宣布降息，步伐或进一步放缓】周四，英国央行宣布降息，货币政策委员会成员投 票结果相当接近。央行同时暗示，当前较慢的降息步伐可能会进一步放缓。 本周公布的数据显示通胀 大幅下降，且英国央行工作人员预测2025年底增长将停滞。之后，五名货币政策委员会成员投票决定， 将英国央行基准利率从4.0%下调至3.75%，这是2025年以来的第四次降息。 其他四名成员投票支持维持 利率不变，他们担心英国通胀率可能仍过高。英国央行行长贝利改变立场，投票支持降息，扭转了委员 会投票结果。 贝利在声明中称："我们仍认为利率将逐步下调。但每次降息后，还能降多少就更难确定 了。" 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 FUL hexun.con 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 ...

"因为通胀仍然偏高，我们可以慢慢来 —— 没必要急着降息，"Waller在CNBC论坛上表示，"我们可以 稳步来，把政策利率往中性水平方向降低。" "昨天公布的美国就业数据表面上看疲软；然而，细节显示情况并没有那么糟糕，不足以让美联储在接 下来的几次政策会议上采取鸽派立场。" 野村外汇策略师Yusuke Miyairi表示。"除了Waller的言论之外， 市场缺乏明确的催化剂来消化美联储进一步降息的预期，非农数据公布后遭到抛售的美元吸引逢低买 盘。" 道富全球外汇销售和交易主管Chris Pizzotti表示，美国投资者削减海外对冲令美元承压。 英镑/美元下跌0.3%，报1.3379，一度跌至1.3312。 英国通胀率降至八个月来最低水平，放缓程度超出预期，为英国央行周四降息铺平道路。 美元/日元上涨0.6%，至155.70，日本央行周五将公布利率决策。 彭博美元指数缩小涨幅，美联储理事Waller表示支持进一步降息。英镑在G-10货币中表现落后，英国央 行周四料降息25个基点。 彭博美元指数上涨0.2%，一度反弹0.4%。 Waller是美联储下一任主席的热门人选，他周三表示当前货币政策利率水平较中性利率高 ...

AJ Bell分析师Laith Khalaf指出，由于英国通胀仍处于相对高位，英国央行在2026年可能实施的降息次 数将少于2025年，未来几个月降息步伐很可能会放缓。"此前的货币宽松政策仍在发挥作用，2026年全 年新增的刺激措施可能会十分有限。" 这些数据可能促使英国央行在9月和11月暂停降息后，于周四重启降息周期。尽管一些利率制定者仍担 心通胀粘性，但劳动力市场数据进一步证明，英国经济正在失去动力。 此前公布的数据显示，英国经济放缓幅度超出预期，这可能促使通胀更快回落。更近期的调查数据显 示，经济疲软态势仍在持续，很可能源于基本面恶化，而非预算引发的信心受挫。英国预算责任办公室 预计，由于持续的地缘政治不确定性以及企业和消费者信心低迷，近期经济的季度增长将仅会逐渐回 升。 经济学家预计，本周降息决定将以5:4的投票比例通过。丹斯克银行分析师表示，英国央行行长贝利将 转向支持降息阵营。 英国央行预计将重申利率可能逐步下行，但可能强调未来决策将依赖数据，并指出随着政策接近所谓 的"中性利率"，进一步降息的门槛将更高。德意志银行表示，英国GDP数据显示经济增长疲软，薪资增 速也在放缓，提高了降息的可能性。然而 ...

英国10月三个月ILO失业率升至5.1%，比上一季度上升了0.1个百分点，与经济学家的预期相符。剔除红 利的平均工资年率从4.7%微降至4.6%。这些数据可能促使英国央行在9月和11月暂停降息后，于周四重 启降息周期。尽管一些利率制定者仍担心价格压力的粘性，但周二公布的数据将进一步证明，英国经济 正在失去动力。周二数据公布前，市场认为英国央行降息25个基点至3.75%的几率接近90%，但经济学 家预计降息决定将以5:4的投票比例胶着通过。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 来源：金十数据 12月16日，英国失业率攀升至近5年来的最高水平，薪资增速放缓，劳动力市场降温似乎为英国央行圣 诞节前降息扫清了最后的障碍之一。 责任编辑：山上 ...

不过，CBI首席经济学家路易丝·赫勒姆强调，当前前景仅为"谨慎乐观"。她指出，最新预算案"更注重 稳定而非增长"，未提供持久的投资激励。在通胀方面，CBI预计2026年消费者物价指数（CPI）将上涨 2.6%，略高于英国央行此前预测。基于此，该机构认为英国央行降息空间有限，预计仅在"下周"和2026 年初各降息25个基点，将基准利率由当前4%降至3.5%。这一判断较市场普遍预期更为紧缩。 制造业内部，13个子行业中6个实现增长。运输设备制造业环比增长3.6%，其中机动车辆产出增长 9.5%；机械制造业增长4.4%；其他制造业和维修业增长2.8%。尽管出现反弹，制造业产出环比增幅仅 为0.5%，低于市场预期的1.0%；同比仍下降0.8%，亦差于预期的下降0.1%。 建筑业延续扩张趋势，但动能明显减弱。10月建筑业产出同比增长0.9%，低于前值1.3%和市场预期的 1.6%，为1月以来最慢增速。环比方面，建筑业产出下降0.6%，逆转9月0.2%的增幅。其中，新建工程 环比下降0.7%，维修保养活动下降0.6%。截至10月的三个月内，建筑业总产出微降0.3%。 虽然经济数据疲弱，英国主要商业游说团体——英国工业联盟 ...

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is expected to achieve its best weekly performance in over three months following the budget announcement by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, despite a slight decline against the US dollar on Thursday [1]. Group 1: Budget Announcement and Market Reaction - Chancellor Reeves' budget plan, which aims to fund additional welfare spending through the highest tax burden since World War II, includes a tax increase of £26 billion (approximately $34 billion) [1]. - The pound has risen approximately 0.85% this week, indicating a potential for the largest weekly gain since early August [1]. - George Vessey, Chief FX and Macro Strategist at Convera, noted that the pound's rise post-budget is more of a relief rebound rather than the start of a sustained trend, with market reactions being muted as most fiscal plans were already priced in [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Analyst Opinions - Analysts have mixed views on the budget; Deutsche Bank's Sanjay Raja described it as "better than expected," suggesting that the doubling of fiscal buffers could lower inflation and create conditions for the Bank of England to cut rates [4]. - The Institute for Fiscal Studies believes that while increasing taxes to enhance fiscal buffers is wise, the budget fails to address structural issues, as tax increases are future-oriented while spending is immediate [4]. - Concerns were raised by Ian Begg from the London School of Economics regarding the extension of freeze periods as a form of "implicit tax increase," which expands the taxpayer base without changing rates, thereby squeezing disposable income [4]. - Andrew Wishart from Berenberg Bank indicated that the tightening of budget deficits over the next two years supports the Bank of England's potential rate cuts, but warned that the budget heavily relies on the assumption of expected inflation decline, with external factors like energy prices posing new upward pressures [4].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts in December, reversing their previous forecast of a delay until January [1] - The research team led by Michael Feroli noted support for recent rate cuts from several Federal Reserve officials, particularly from New York Fed President Williams [1] - Morgan Stanley now expects two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in December and January [1] Group 2: UK Economic Outlook - Berenberg Bank indicates that the UK's fiscal space has increased, which supports the possibility of rate cuts by the Bank of England [2] - Deutsche Bank reports that the UK budget is better than expected, with fiscal buffers increasing from £10 billion to just below £22 billion, and public borrowing expected to decline [3] - BlackRock analysts believe the UK budget will boost market confidence and alleviate political concerns, with the government expanding fiscal space to £22 billion [2] Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley has ended its bullish stance on the British pound, suggesting that the recent budget may have provided the last positive catalyst for the currency [3] - Analysts noted that the correlation between the pound and the stock market has dropped to zero, diminishing the currency's appeal [3] Group 4: Japan's Economic Policy - Fitch Ratings warns that Japan's new stimulus plan could pose risks to its credit rating if it leads to prolonged monetary easing and increased government debt [4] - The stimulus plan, amounting to approximately 3.4% of GDP, has uncertain fiscal impacts due to its reliance on non-fiscal measures and potential implementation risks [4] - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that political factors may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike until January [4] Group 5: Industry Insights - China Galaxy Securities forecasts a "bumpy" trend for the computer industry in 2025, with a focus on AI applications and the acceleration of model parity by 2026 [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates downward pressure on beef supply by 2026, with a cumulative reduction in stock exceeding 10% since 2024 [6] - CITIC Securities has raised its lithium price forecast upper limit to 120,000 yuan per ton, driven by strong demand in the energy storage battery sector [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market faced pressure due to concerns over high valuations of tech stocks and a sudden drop in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to declines in major indices: Dow Jones down 1.91%, S&P 500 down 1.95%, and Nasdaq down 2.74% [1] - International oil prices fell as geopolitical tensions eased, with predictions from major investment banks indicating a continued oversupply of global crude oil into next year; U.S. oil and Brent crude prices dropped by 3.38% and 2.84% respectively [1] - International gold prices experienced a slight decline of 0.36% due to the U.S. dollar index remaining high, increasing the holding costs of gold, coupled with uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook for December [1] Group 2 - Key economic data from the U.S. is set to be released this week ahead of the Federal Reserve's December meeting, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) for October and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is favored by the Fed [1] - The U.K. is expected to announce its autumn budget this week, with anticipated tax increases as inflation rates have decreased to 3.6%, raising expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England in December [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate unchanged, with a focus on the release of the minutes from the October monetary policy meeting, as most ECB officials have expressed satisfaction with the current monetary policy [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Korea will announce their latest interest rate decisions this week, with the former having previously cut rates by 50 basis points in October to stimulate the economy and potential further cuts anticipated [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs Asset Management's 2026 investment outlook report indicates a divergence in central bank policies across major markets, influenced by varying economic conditions [1] Group 1: U.S. Market - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, leading Goldman Sachs to predict that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice in 2026 [1] Group 2: European Market - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates at their current levels for the foreseeable future [1] - The Bank of England may resume rate cuts in December, contingent on improvements in inflation, a relatively weak labor market, and potential tax increases [1] Group 3: Japanese Market - High inflation and strong growth in Japan may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [1] - Recent political changes and a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy further reinforce the likelihood of this direction [1]