Group 1: XAU/USD Gold Analysis - The article indicates that gold experienced high volatility last Friday, with a daily range of 325 points, and is currently stabilizing around the H4 trendline support near 3367 [1] - Key support and resistance levels are identified at 3367 and 3408 respectively, with a strategy to buy on dips in the 3367-3363 range [3] - The H1 trendline has shifted from red to yellow, suggesting a potential for short-term trading opportunities [4] Group 2: EUR/USD Euro/Dollar Analysis - The article notes that the euro was in a consolidation phase last Friday, with a daily range of approximately 50 points, and highlights the stability of European inflation at 2.0% [6] - Key support and resistance levels are set at 1.159 and 1.174 respectively, with a strategy to buy on dips in the 1.162-1.163 range [7] - The H1 trendline has also shifted from red to yellow, indicating potential for short-term trading based on the M5 model [8] Group 3: GBP/USD Pound/Dollar Analysis - The article mentions that the pound was in a consolidation phase last Friday, with a daily range of about 41 points, and discusses concerns over prolonged inflation impacting the Bank of England's rate decisions [10] - Key support and resistance levels are identified at 1.339 and 1.353 respectively, with a strategy to buy on dips in the 1.341-1.342 range [11] - The H1 trendline remains red, suggesting a cautious approach while looking for breakout signals [12] Group 4: GBP/JPY Pound/Yen Analysis - The article highlights that GBP/JPY experienced significant upward movement last Friday, with a daily range of 144 points, and is currently in a high-level consolidation phase [14] - Key support and resistance levels are set at 198.0 and 199.5 respectively, with strategies for both short and long positions based on market movements [17] - The H1 trendline remains red, indicating a focus on support and resistance transitions for trading decisions [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Reuters survey indicates that the Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points each quarter until the end of 2025, reaching 3.75%, consistent with the findings from the June survey [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Interest Rate Projections - The Bank of England is projected to reduce interest rates to 3.75% by the end of 2025, with a quarterly decrease of 25 basis points [1] - This forecast aligns with previous expectations from a June survey, indicating stability in market predictions regarding monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates to 3.75% by the end of the year due to signs of weakness in the labor market [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate in the UK has risen to 4.7% in the three months ending in May [1] - Investec Economics forecasts that the Bank of England may implement two more rate cuts by the end of 2025, bringing the rate down to 3.75% [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The economists at Investec predict that the interest rate will further decrease to 3.00% by the end of 2026 [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The passage of the U.S. stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies, the increased expectation of Powell's early departure and subsequent Fed rate - cuts, along with continuous gold purchases by global central banks and geopolitical risks, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly set up long positions on price pull - backs. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different gold and silver markets [1]. 3. Summary by Content a. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On 2025 - 07 - 22, the closing price was 780.00 yuan/gram, up 3.00 yuan from the previous day and 7.80 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 49,546.00, an increase of 9,284.00 from the previous day and 22,476.00 from last week [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 9368.00 yuan/kg, up 142.00 yuan from the previous day and 259.00 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 537,430.00, an increase of 236,642.00 from the previous day and 53,632.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 3444.00, up 33.70 from the previous day and 91.90 from last week. Trading volume was 217,981.00, an increase of 32,635.00 from the previous day and 37,040.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 39.66, up 0.42 from the previous day and 1.25 from last week. Trading volume was 57,469.00, an increase of 7,611.00 from the previous day and a decrease of 18,727.00 from last week [1]. b. Important Information - **U.S. News**: Trump announced a trade deal with Japan where Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., and the U.S. will get 90% of the profits. There are also developments regarding Powell's "resignation" and calls for Fed rate - cuts. The U.S. House passed a stablecoin - related bill and inflation data showed mixed trends [1]. - **European News**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates in June, and there are expectations of further rate - cuts by the end of 2025. The eurozone and German (French) manufacturing PMI and CPI data have influenced market expectations [1]. - **UK News**: The Bank of England cut the key rate in May and continued bond - selling. With CPI data and GDP trends, there is an increased expectation of rate - cuts in August and by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan News**: The Bank of Japan raised rates in January and may reduce bond purchases in 2026. There is an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 based on CPI data [1]. c. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - **Precious Metal Price Ratios**: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) showed certain changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 compared to previous days and weeks [1]. - **Other Commodities**: Prices of INE crude, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX crude, Shanghai copper, LME copper, Shanghai rebar, and Dalian iron ore also had their respective changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. d. Interest Rates and Stock Indices - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai inter - bank lending rates (SHIBOR), U.S. 10 - year Treasury yields, and inflation - adjusted yields had changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: Major global stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Japanese Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index showed different trends on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs currently anticipates that the Bank of England will begin a series of interest rate cuts starting in November 2025, ultimately reaching a terminal rate of 3% by March 2026 [1] Group 1 - The expected timeline for interest rate cuts by the Bank of England is from November 2025 to March 2026 [1] - The projected terminal interest rate is set at 3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Dutch International Group expects the Bank of England to lower interest rates in August and November despite a cooling labor market [1] Group 1 - James Smith from the Dutch International Group indicates that the labor market in the UK is cooling, but the situation is not deteriorating as typically seen during a recession [1] - Smith notes that in the past eight months, the payroll numbers have declined in seven of those months, suggesting ongoing labor market challenges [1] - The expectation of rate cuts in August and November reflects a response to the current economic conditions, alleviating some pressure on the Bank of England to accelerate rate reductions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest data indicates a slowdown in wage growth in the UK, but the employment situation is not as concerning as previously thought, alleviating immediate pressure on the Bank of England to accelerate interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Wage Growth and Employment - Official data shows that wage growth in the UK slowed in May, with a further decline in employee numbers in June [1] - The significant revision of employed individuals in May suggests that the labor market conditions are not as dire as earlier data indicated [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the data release, financial markets have slightly reduced expectations for an interest rate cut in August [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank economists suggest that the Bank of England should remain cautious regarding the pace of interest rate cuts despite signs of a loosening labor market in the UK [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates a decline in job vacancies, an increase in the unemployment rate, and a slowdown in wage growth in the UK [1] - The unemployment rate is expected to continue to rise slowly, which may allow the Bank of England to proceed with interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The Bank of England is advised to adopt a gradual and cautious approach to any potential interest rate reductions [1] - Current conditions do not warrant a faster pace of interest rate cuts according to Deutsche Bank's analysis [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that the UK labor market is showing signs of cooling, but the pace may be slower than the Bank of England's expectations [1][2] - The annual salary growth rate, excluding bonuses, was reported at 5.0% for the three months ending in May, slightly above expectations [1] - The initial estimate of a 109,000 decrease in employment for May was significantly revised down to a reduction of 25,000, indicating a less severe job loss than initially thought [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England had previously predicted a salary growth rate of 5.2% for the three months ending in June, which has now been reported at 4.9% [2] - Employers are anticipating a reduction in hiring due to increased minimum wage, higher employer social security contributions, and tightening employment regulations [2] - The dual factors of reduced job vacancies and increased job seekers are key reasons for the Bank of England's expectation of a gradual pace of interest rate cuts despite inflation being above target [2]

Core Viewpoint - The UK employment data indicates a rising unemployment rate, which keeps the Bank of England on a path towards potential interest rate cuts despite ongoing inflationary pressures [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The unemployment rate has continued to rise, reaching its highest level since 2021, with the three-month ILO unemployment rate slightly above expectations [1] - June employment data is expected to show further weakness, even though May's data was revised upwards [1] Group 2: Wage Growth - Real wages are projected to continue declining, with the total wage growth rate for three months in May at 1.0% and regular wage growth at 1.1%, marking the lowest levels since mid-2023 [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Implications - The Bank of England may find some comfort in the easing price pressures, which could influence their decision-making regarding interest rates [1]