格隆汇2月24日｜英国投资者正等待英国央行货币政策委员会成员格林、泰勒、皮尔以及行长贝利今晚 向议会财政委员会发表证词。加拿大皇家银行资本市场策略师在一份报告中表示，市场将密切关注贝利 的言论，以寻找英国央行降息路径的线索，因为他是委员会中关键的摇摆票。此次证词发表之际，英国 近期疲软的就业数据出炉后，下月降息的可能性正在增加。伦敦证券交易所集团的数据显示，市场预计 英国央行在2026年将进行两次幅度为25个基点的降息，3月份降息的概率为76%。 ...

荷兰国际集团的Chris Turner在一份报告中称，如果英国央行行长贝利在稍后的证词中提高最早于3月进 一步降息的预期，英镑可能会下跌。贝利将向财政部特别委员会发表讲话。Turner称，贝利最有可能促 使3月份的投票结果转向降息。"有关他已看到足够理由支持3月降息的言论，可能会巩固货币市场的这 一定价（目前市场对降息25个基点的定价已反映了80%的可能性），甚至推动市场猜测英国央行今年的 宽松幅度将超过50个基点。"欧元兑英镑上涨0.1%，至0.8739英镑，荷兰国际集团预计该汇率将达到 0.88英镑。 责任编辑：何云 荷兰国际集团的Chris Turner在一份报告中称，如果英国央行行长贝利在稍后的证词中提高最早于3月进 一步降息的预期，英镑可能会下跌。贝利将向财政部特别委员会发表讲话。Turner称，贝利最有可能促 使3月份的投票结果转向降息。"有关他已看到足够理由支持3月降息的言论，可能会巩固货币市场的这 一定价（目前市场对降息25个基点的定价已反映了80%的可能性），甚至推动市场猜测英国央行今年的 宽松幅度将超过50个基点。"欧元兑英镑上涨0.1%，至0.8739英镑，荷兰国际集团预计该汇率将达到 ...

德意志 银行研究部的Sanjay Raja在报告中表示，英国央行降息前景已明显增强，但降息节奏可能相对 缓慢。英国央行周四以5比4的投票结果决定将利率维持在3.75%不变，并暗示未来数月可能进一步降 息。Raja称："风险仍然偏向于较慢的降息步伐，但我们依然有信心，英国央行今年将降息两次。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has appreciated by 0.5% against both the US dollar and the euro due to a reduction in market bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England, following warnings from BOE policymaker Megan Greene that a decline in US interest rates could elevate UK inflation [1][1]. Group 1 - The GBP/USD increased by 0.5% to 1.3569, marking the highest level since September [1][1]. - The EUR/GBP decreased by 0.5% to 0.8661 [1][1]. - Swap contracts indicate that traders now expect a 36 basis point cut from the Bank of England this year, down from 41 basis points earlier in the week [1][1].

Economic Overview - The U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, slightly above the market expectation of 50,000, but the overall employment trend remains sluggish[8] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6%, exceeding the expected 4.5%, indicating a potential increase in labor market pressures[8] - November's CPI growth in the U.S. was 2.7%, significantly below the expected 3.1%, with core CPI at 2.6%, also below expectations[14] Market Performance - In the commodities market, COMEX copper rose by 2.3%, while IPE crude oil futures fell by 1.1% and the S&P-Goldman commodity index decreased by 0.5%[2] - Emerging market stocks underperformed compared to developed markets, with the Nikkei 225 dropping 2.6% and the Hang Seng Index down 1.1%[2] - The S&P 500 index saw a slight increase of 0.1%, while the emerging market stock index fell by 1.5%[2] Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve is likely to pause interest rate cuts, with the new chair expected to be announced in early 2026[4] - The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, indicating a potential for gradual future increases[30] - The European Central Bank has maintained its rates, suggesting that the current easing cycle may be nearing its end[29] Risk Factors - Political pressures from Trump could threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve, while the U.S. unemployment rate may face nonlinear deterioration risks[32]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England announced a rate cut, indicating a potential slowdown in the pace of future reductions due to significant inflation decline and predictions of stagnation in growth by the end of 2025 [1] Group 1: Rate Cut Announcement - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to lower the benchmark interest rate from 4.0% to 3.75%, marking the fourth rate cut since 2025 [1] - The vote was closely contested, with five members supporting the cut while four preferred to maintain the current rate due to concerns over persistent inflation [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Recent data showed a substantial decrease in inflation, prompting the Bank of England's staff to forecast stagnation in growth by the end of 2025 [1] - Bank of England Governor Bailey shifted his stance to support the rate cut, indicating uncertainty about the extent of future reductions after each cut [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has narrowed its gains, with Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressing support for further interest rate cuts, while the British pound lags among G-10 currencies as the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points [1][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and U.S. Dollar - The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by 0.2%, briefly rebounding by 0.4% [2][9]. - Waller, a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicated that current monetary policy rates are up to 100 basis points above neutral levels [2][9]. - Waller stated that due to persistent inflation, there is no need to rush into rate cuts, suggesting a gradual approach to lowering policy rates towards neutral levels [2][9]. - Despite seemingly weak U.S. employment data, details indicate the situation is not dire enough for the Fed to adopt a dovish stance in upcoming meetings [2][9]. - Market sentiment lacks clear catalysts to digest expectations for further Fed rate cuts, with the dollar attracting dip-buying after a sell-off following non-farm payroll data [2][9]. - U.S. investors reducing overseas hedges has put pressure on the dollar [2][9]. Group 2: British Pound and Inflation - The British pound against the U.S. dollar fell by 0.3%, trading at 1.3379, and reached a low of 1.3312 [3][10]. - U.K. inflation has dropped to its lowest level in eight months, with the decline exceeding expectations, paving the way for the Bank of England to cut rates [4][11]. Group 3: Other Currencies - The dollar against the yen increased by 0.6%, reaching 155.70, with the Bank of Japan set to announce its interest rate decision [5][12]. - The yen has underperformed among G-10 currencies [6][13]. - The euro against the dollar remained stable at 1.1743, while the euro against the pound rose by 0.3% to 0.8777 [7][13].

Group 1 - The UK unemployment rate has risen to 5.1%, the highest level in nearly five years, with total unemployment increasing by 158,000 to 1.832 million [1] - Total employment has decreased by 16,000 to 34.226 million, marking the second consecutive quarterly decline, primarily due to a reduction in full-time positions [1] - The average wage growth rate, excluding bonuses, has slightly decreased from 4.7% to 4.6% [1] Group 2 - The number of salaried employees in the UK fell by 38,000 to 30.3 million in November, marking a 0.1% month-on-month decline [1] - The wholesale and retail sector experienced the largest decline in employment, losing 70,000 jobs, while the health and social work sector saw an increase of 31,000 jobs [1] - The Bank of England is expected to restart its rate-cutting cycle, with a potential vote split of 5:4 in favor of the decision [2] Group 3 - The UK economy is showing signs of slowing down more than expected, which may lead to a faster decline in inflation [2] - The Bank of England is likely to emphasize that future decisions will depend on data, with a higher threshold for further rate cuts as policy approaches the so-called "neutral rate" [2] - Analysts predict that the Bank of England may implement four rate cuts of 25 basis points each by July 2026, lowering the benchmark rate to 3.0% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The UK unemployment rate has risen to its highest level in nearly five years, indicating a cooling labor market that may pave the way for the Bank of England to lower interest rates before Christmas [1] Group 1: Unemployment and Wage Growth - The ILO unemployment rate for the three months ending in October increased to 5.1%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - The average annual wage growth, excluding bonuses, slightly decreased from 4.7% to 4.6%, suggesting a slowdown in wage increases [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The recent data may prompt the Bank of England to restart its rate-cutting cycle after pausing in September and November [1] - Prior to the data release, market expectations indicated a nearly 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75% [1] - Economists anticipate that the rate cut decision will be closely contested, likely passing with a 5:4 voting ratio among policymakers [1]

Economic Performance - In October, the UK's GDP decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of contraction [1] - The trade deficit widened significantly to £22.542 billion, the highest level since January 2022 [1] - Industrial output increased by 1.1% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations of 0.7%, representing the strongest monthly growth since February [2] Trade Dynamics - Goods exports fell by 0.3% to £77 billion, the lowest in four months, while imports rose by 4.5% to £81.82 billion, reaching a seven-month high [1] - Exports to the EU increased by 1.7%, driven by machinery and transport equipment, while exports to non-EU countries rose by 8.6%, led by chemicals and machinery [1] Sectoral Insights - Within the manufacturing sector, six out of thirteen sub-sectors reported growth, with transport equipment manufacturing rising by 3.6% [2] - The construction sector continued to expand but showed signs of weakening, with output growing by only 0.9% year-on-year, the slowest pace since January [2] Economic Forecasts - The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.0% to 1.3% and for 2026 from 1.2% to 1.4% [3] - CBI's chief economist emphasized a "cautiously optimistic" outlook, noting that the recent budget focused more on stability than growth [3] - The CBI expects limited room for interest rate cuts, projecting a reduction of 25 basis points in the near term, bringing the rate down to 3.5% [3]