Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the end of the U.S. government shutdown and the resumption of economic data releases are expected to increase volatility in the foreign exchange market, particularly for the U.S. dollar [1][2] - Bank of America strategists noted that the sensitivity of the dollar to global interest rates has reached its highest level since the first quarter of this year, indicating potential fluctuations in the dollar as economic data is released [1] - The resumption of data releases is deemed critical, as it may lead to increased volatility in U.S. interest rate differentials, which are significant for foreign exchange traders [1] Group 2 - Recent months have seen a significant decline in measures of currency volatility, attributed to cautious investor assessments of global tariffs and central bank monetary policies [2] - The narrowing of yield differentials, particularly as several central banks, including the European Central Bank, approach the end of their easing cycles, has contributed to a calmer foreign exchange market [2] - The dollar's performance has shifted to reflect growth rather than inflation, as there has been a lack of data to validate economic resilience, leading to a more neutral positioning among investors regarding the dollar [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests that Powell's stance in the upcoming June FOMC meeting may lean hawkish, potentially disappointing investors expecting rate cuts [1] - The recent sell-off of U.S. assets is attributed more to tariff policy impacts rather than a loss of confidence in the dollar's reserve currency status, although long-term trends could weaken this status [2] - Analysts predict a further decline in U.S. Treasury yields over the next few months, with the 10-year yield expected to drop to 4.35% in three months and 4.29% in six months from the current 4.48% [2] Group 2 - The decline in UK GDP provides another reason for the Bank of England to consider a rate cut in August, with April's GDP shrinking by 0.3% [3] - The current low volatility in the foreign exchange market may trigger a rebound in the dollar, as interest rate differentials become more pronounced [3] - Despite concerns over excess supply in the U.S. Treasury market, most economists expect the Federal Reserve to only cut rates two times or less this year [2]